Concept Coop
Footballguy
As of today, I'm only taking OBJ, Zeke, or Evans for Hunt straight up.
Edit: I'd happily take Julio over Gurley.
Edit: I'd happily take Julio over Gurley.
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I just turned down an offer of DJ for Hunt straight up. In a different league I turned down Snead, Crowell and Abdullah for Hunt.Top 10 RBs? I think Hunt breaks into the top 10 overall.
That must have been tough.In a different league I turned down Snead, Crowell and Abdullah for Hunt.
They are 28 and 29, which seems crazy to say because it feels like just yesterday when they were rookies, but in my experience that's about the age when dynasty owners start getting more reluctant about paying top dollar for a player. Maybe those players have 7-8 good years left in the tank. Maybe it's more like 2-3. Either way, for the purpose of shaping a roster, their trade value will only keep declining from here on out. I had Julio in one league for the last five years and decided to cash out this offseason. I don't think there will be a better time.that's what I was kinda thinking most people would say. I was just curious if my thinking was off there. I suppose both coming off huge games doesn't help me.
I have Brown, beckham, AJ, davonte adams and Julio so I have some chips to play with but no one is willing to deal a top back for Julio or AJ.
Before season started, I acquired Ingram for my 2017 2.02 developmental draft pick & a 2018 4th round rookie pickAndy Dufresne said:Assuming AP is out of the way (I do) what's Ingram's worth? Plus or minus a 2018 1st?
I am in the same spot. I have a crazy WR corps and people won't give anything. They treat them like WR2s. I get the feeling my league mates think, "you can't start them all, so they're not worth much/you'll trade cheap."mozzy84 said:I have Brown, beckham, AJ, davonte adams and Julio so I have some chips to play with but no one is willing to deal a top back for Julio or AJ.
Hunt has played 3 games. I think most people want to see him do it a little longer before putting him in the top 10WTF is happening to the shark pool?
TyMo's (FFs next David Johnson) being valued at a late 1st round pick? Hunt not in the top 10 overall? He's leading the league in rushing by over 100 yards lol what else do you want to see?
He also averaged 8.0 yards per carry over 200+ carries as a sophomore in college and caught 41 passes his senior year at Toledo. It's not like he just started being productive.Hunt has played 3 games. I think most people want to see him do it a little longer before putting him in the top 10
And yet he was a third round pick and the 6th RB selected this year despite that. If it was so obvious before now that he was an elite talent, why did so many teams pass on him in the draft multiple times?He also averaged 8.0 yards per carry over 200+ carries as a sophomore in college and caught 41 passes his senior year at Toledo. It's not like he just started being productive.
There are lots of productive RB's in college, especially at the non-elite colleges that play non-elite teams. I'm not saying he's not going to be great. But I want to see it a tad longer before I rank him in the top 10.He also averaged 8.0 yards per carry over 200+ carries as a sophomore in college and caught 41 passes his senior year at Toledo. It's not like he just started being productive.
I completely agree that KC's offensive lines has been one of the biggest surprises this year, and no doubt a significant % of Hunt's success can be attributed to that. But play calling is something that KC does better than most every team in my opinion. Their 'gadget' plays seem to be more successful than other team's, and not by accident. You can debate if playcalling is a temporary bump that other teams will scheme away, but Reed has been successful at this for many years.And yet he was a third round pick and the 6th RB selected this year despite that. If it was so obvious before now that he was an elite talent, why did so many teams pass on him in the draft multiple times?
I've always been lukewarm on Hunt and so this might not come as a surprise, but for me a more moderate position makes sense. Give him some credit for what he's done so far and bump him up significantly from his offseason rankings, but don't assume that he's a long-term mega star on the basis of a few games either. His size/speed/power combo looks pretty awesome and that's not going to change. On the other hand, one of the main things I see when I watch his KC highlights is his blocking clearing out big holes and lanes for him.
It can be easy to conflate RB performance and OL/blocking/playcalling performance when a back is struggling or dominating. It is hard to look good when you are getting swarmed in the backfield on every carry and it's hard to look bad when you're given chances to run into a wide open field. I'm not going to say that everything Hunt is doing is down to the situation, but the situation certainly hasn't hurt. Although I always liked Spencer Ware, he was a late round pick and was out of the league entirely for a year, and this same KC system made him look like a viable starter. How much of what we're seeing is Hunt and how much is the offense?
Anyway, the third round pick thing that I mentioned previously isn't that damning. Plenty of great backs were third round picks. Gore, Charles, and Murray come to mind recently. My point was that Kareem Hunt wasn't unanimously viewed as an elite prospect coming into the league, so citing his Toledo performance in hindsight to justify the idea that he has always been great doesn't really work. Personally, I'd have him as a top 10 dynasty RB now, but I wouldn't take him with a first round pick in a startup draft.
Nope, not as prolific and productive as Hunt with his combine #s. College production matters, and Hunt had more of it than basically anyone. To discount that is wrong imoThere are lots of productive RB's in college, especially at the non-elite colleges that play non-elite teams. I'm not saying he's not going to be great. But I want to see it a tad longer before I rank him in the top 10.
OK.Nope, not as prolific and productive as Hunt with his combine #s. College production matters, and Hunt had more of it than basically anyone. To discount that is wrong imo
Ok I'll play along here:OK.
I went back and picked a random, recent year - 2013 - enough time where all these guys could be in the NFL. Here are the top five college rushing leaders by yards:
1. Andre Williams 2177
2. Jordan Lynch 1920
3. Ka'Deem Carey 1885
4. Bishop Sankey 1870
5. Tre Mason 1816
College production doesn't always equate to NFL success.
You're the one who said "College production matters, and Hunt had more of it than basically anyone. To discount that is wrong imo." I'm merely pointing out that there are lots of productive college players who don't make it in the NFL.Ok I'll play along here:
Andrew Williams - only average agility and zero production catching passes
Jordan Lynch - bottom 5% combine measureables
Ka'Deem Carey - bottom 5% combine measureables
Sankey - No real explanation, prolific in college and above average combine. Not sure why he didn't fire in the NFL
Tre Mason - was actually very productive in the NFL for a year before the Rams unexpectedly drafted Gurley. Flamed out with apparent mental issues. Also, did not catch passes in college.
So I ask again, what's the knock on Hunt?
Do i really need to add, "assuming the prospect doesn't have some other fatal flaw preventing NFL success." ?You're the one who said "College production matters, and Hunt had more of it than basically anyone. To discount that is wrong imo." I'm merely pointing out that there are lots of productive college players who don't make it in the NFL.
To each their own of course, but when I watch him play the first thing I notice is him swatting away defenders like flies, which I believe he's doing at a league leading or near league leading rate.And yet he was a third round pick and the 6th RB selected this year despite that. If it was so obvious before now that he was an elite talent, why did so many teams pass on him in the draft multiple times?
I've always been lukewarm on Hunt and so this might not come as a surprise, but for me a more moderate position makes sense. Give him some credit for what he's done so far and bump him up significantly from his offseason rankings, but don't assume that he's a long-term mega star on the basis of a few games either. His size/speed/power combo looks pretty awesome and that's not going to change. On the other hand, one of the main things I see when I watch his KC highlights is his blocking clearing out big holes and lanes for him.
It can be easy to conflate RB performance and OL/blocking/playcalling performance when a back is struggling or dominating. It is hard to look good when you are getting swarmed in the backfield on every carry and it's hard to look bad when you're given chances to run into a wide open field. I'm not going to say that everything Hunt is doing is down to the situation, but the situation certainly hasn't hurt. Although I always liked Spencer Ware, he was a late round pick and was out of the league entirely for a year, and this same KC system made him look like a viable starter. How much of what we're seeing is Hunt and how much is the offense?
Anyway, the third round pick thing that I mentioned previously isn't that damning. Plenty of great backs were third round picks. Gore, Charles, and Murray come to mind recently. My point was that Kareem Hunt wasn't unanimously viewed as an elite prospect coming into the league, so citing his Toledo performance in hindsight to justify the idea that he has always been great doesn't really work. Personally, I'd have him as a top 10 dynasty RB now, but I wouldn't take him with a first round pick in a startup draft.
I think the issue is that there are so many variables that to say elite college numbers and combine numbers = NFL success there is majors flaws there.Do i really need to add, "assuming the prospect doesn't have some other fatal flaw preventing NFL success." ?
C'mon
I won't disagree with this too much, because identifying talent is obviously extremely difficult. But imo the starting point has to be college production and measurable athleticism. From that you can nitpick or tape grind or whatever.I think the issue is that there are so many variables that to say elite college numbers and combine numbers = NFL success there is majors flaws there.
There is nothing to really argue with this. You obviously have to use the how the player played in college as a huge measurement to determine success and then add in, I suppose, combine numbersI won't disagree with this too much, because identifying talent is obviously extremely difficult. But imo the starting point has to be college production and measurable athleticism. From that you can nitpick or tape grind or whatever.
Those people missed their window. At one point it stopped mattering whether Arian Foster was as talented as Adrian Peterson. In the same way, I don't think it matters whether you think Hunt is a top 5 talent or not. Unless something crazy happens, he's clearly on his way to being a top 5 startup pick in the off-season. He's going for close to those prices now and the next 14 weeks project to pad or solidify that.Hunt has played 3 games. I think most people want to see him do it a little longer before putting him in the top 10
We'll agree to disagree.Do i really need to add, "assuming the prospect doesn't have some other fatal flaw preventing NFL success." ?
C'mon
I agree with this. No one is letting him go right now. If you don't have him, you aren't getting him unless you pay a king's ransom.Those people missed their window. At one point it stopped mattering whether Arian Foster was as talented as Adrian Peterson. In the same way, I don't think it matters whether you think Hunt is a top 5 talent or not. Unless something crazy happens, he's clearly on his way to being a top 5 startup pick in the off-season. He's going for close to those prices now and the next 14 weeks project to pad or solidify that.
Yea, his YPC is obviously coming down a lot over the next 13 games. 8.5 YPC is not sustainable. He can drop down to half that and still be viewed as a huge success, so that's not really a big issue, but he's not going to break a 50+ yarder every week. When a player is on the streak of his life, it's hard to be measured about his long-term outlook. I don't think he's a fluke, but whether or not he's one of the best backs in the league is still debatable for me. I think he's this year's Jordan Howard, but with more versatility and a better situation.Ware started off last season with a 199 yard game, had a few more 150/160 yard games a few weeks later. He was also nearly untouchable for a time. Then he became human again. Wore out later in the season. Maybe that's what the wait-and-see group are waiting on? It wasn't very long ago and just throwing out a guess.
Hunt has been better than Ware. Historic even. I'm not disputing that. Chill out a little if you feel I am throwing the golden child under the bus. It's nothing personal. If Hunt got hurt, we all know West would become the hot pick-up of the moment. That KC run game is top notch.
I'm not saying you're wrong (about Hunt), but 48% of his yards have come on 4 plays...that's slightly worrisome. Workload is great, passes the eye test, etc. Just saying leading the league in rushing by 100 yards isn't the reason I'd have him top 10.WTF is happening to the shark pool?
TyMo's (FFs next David Johnson) being valued at a late 1st round pick? Hunt not in the top 10 overall? He's leading the league in rushing by over 100 yards lol what else do you want to see?
Kareem Hunt is elusive.Yea, his YPC is obviously coming down a lot over the next 13 games. 8.5 YPC is not sustainable. He can drop down to half that and still be viewed as a huge success, so that's not really a big issue, but he's not going to break a 50+ yarder every week. When a player is on the streak of his life, it's hard to be measured about his long-term outlook. I don't think he's a fluke, but whether or not he's one of the best backs in the league is still debatable for me. I think he's this year's Jordan Howard, but with more versatility and a better situation.
One of my issues with him at Toledo was how much contact he sought/endured as a runner, so that will be something to monitor long-term. He has the frame to take a beating, but nobody is invincible and given a choice I'd usually rather have an elusive back than a pounder.
Another way to look at it is that he'd still be RB3 if you removed 48% of his yards.I'm not saying you're wrong (about Hunt), but 48% of his yards have come on 4 plays...that's slightly worrisome. Workload is great, passes the eye test, etc. Just saying leading the league in rushing by 100 yards isn't the reason I'd have him top 10.
While I'm on your side on both players, it's called having a difference of opinion and frankly we do not know which side is the correct one yet really.WTF is happening to the shark pool?
TyMo's (FFs next David Johnson) being valued at a late 1st round pick? Hunt not in the top 10 overall? He's leading the league in rushing by over 100 yards lol what else do you want to see?
I think he's already in the top tier of RBs and I'd definitely trade the older elite WRs for the pick to get him.If I am permitted to talk about a college player here - what value does Barkley (2018 1.01) have at this point? I have two 1st in the race for 1.01 next year, so I hope to win the lottery. But if I don't, what to trade for the pick? Top 5 RB? Is he worth more than an older elite WR (e.g., Julio, AJG, Brown)?
With all the talk about Ben, I've been pondering offering AB for the pick at season's end.I think he's already in the top tier of RBs and I'd definitely trade the older elite WRs for the pick to get him.
And don't forget David Johnson.And yet he was a third round pick and the 6th RB selected this year despite that. If it was so obvious before now that he was an elite talent, why did so many teams pass on him in the draft multiple times?
I've always been lukewarm on Hunt and so this might not come as a surprise, but for me a more moderate position makes sense. Give him some credit for what he's done so far and bump him up significantly from his offseason rankings, but don't assume that he's a long-term mega star on the basis of a few games either. His size/speed/power combo looks pretty awesome and that's not going to change. On the other hand, one of the main things I see when I watch his KC highlights is his blocking clearing out big holes and lanes for him.
It can be easy to conflate RB performance and OL/blocking/playcalling performance when a back is struggling or dominating. It is hard to look good when you are getting swarmed in the backfield on every carry and it's hard to look bad when you're given chances to run into a wide open field. I'm not going to say that everything Hunt is doing is down to the situation, but the situation certainly hasn't hurt. Although I always liked Spencer Ware, he was a late round pick and was out of the league entirely for a year, and this same KC system made him look like a viable starter. How much of what we're seeing is Hunt and how much is the offense?
Anyway, the third round pick thing that I mentioned previously isn't that damning. Plenty of great backs were third round picks. Gore, Charles, and Murray come to mind recently. My point was that Kareem Hunt wasn't unanimously viewed as an elite prospect coming into the league, so citing his Toledo performance in hindsight to justify the idea that he has always been great doesn't really work. Personally, I'd have him as a top 10 dynasty RB now, but I wouldn't take him with a first round pick in a startup draft.
Hunt was #1 or #2 in elusive rating last year.One of my issues with him at Toledo was how much contact he sought/endured as a runner, so that will be something to monitor long-term. He has the frame to take a beating, but nobody is invincible and given a choice I'd usually rather have an elusive back than a pounder.
I don't have him in my top 12 right now. I think I could end up being very wrong about that, but he just doesn't look like many guys who have had productive careers. He's been better than I expected him to be, to this point, but I'm still not ready to invest at his current rate.A few pages back people were throwing out some RB rankings. I was surprised to see Derrick Henry either omitted or so far down the lists.
PFF's elusiveness rating is a deceptive stat because it not only includes tackles avoided, but also tackles broken/yards after contact. So anyone who is a powerful runner, but gets hit a lot will still look like an "elusive" back. Not really what I was talking about.Concept Coop said:And it's carried over to the NFL.
"1. KAREEM HUNT – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
PFF Grade: 91.8
PFF Elite elusive rating: 158.0
Hunt’s numbers have been staggering. The rookie running back has taken the league by storm, both as a receiver and ball-carrier, with 17 broken tackles on the ground and another four in the air. Hunt has more than double the elusive rating of any other back in the league through three games."
He's also breaking more tackles per touch than any other RB in the league--by a lot. He's averaging a broken tackle every per 2.7 touches, while the next closest is 3.7. Does that quality him as elusive?PFF's elusiveness rating is a deceptive stat because it not only includes tackles avoided, but also tackles broken/yards after contact. So anyone who is a powerful runner, but gets hit a lot will still look like an "elusive" back. Not really what I was talking about.
Has anyone seen him traded recently? I'm quite curious what his current rate is. Been thinking about trying to buy him. I got him cheap in a few redrafts this year but would like to buy in long term.Concept Coop said:I don't have him in my top 12 right now. I think I could end up being very wrong about that, but he just doesn't look like many guys who have had productive careers. He's been better than I expected him to be, to this point, but I'm still not ready to invest at his current rate.
I haven't seen him moved in the last couple weeks. My offer of Hopkins+Shady was rejected without a counter. I see that offers of Julio and DJ were both rejected recently, according to the forum.Has anyone seen him traded recently? I'm quite curious what his current rate is. Been thinking about trying to buy him. I got him cheap in a few redrafts this year but would like to buy in long term.
To me, elusive means making nice cuts/avoiding hits. What PFF is calling "elusive" is what I would call powerful.He's also breaking more tackles per touch than any other RB in the league--by a lot. He's averaging a broken tackle every per 2.7 touches, while the next closest is 3.7. Does that quality him as elusive?
Edit: Or do you specifically mean guys who aren't getting hit, whether they break said tackles or not?
I agree with this sentiment but what I've seen of Lynch this year makes me think he's still elusive. He's still jump cutting around guys and making them miss.To me, elusive means making nice cuts/avoiding hits. What PFF is calling "elusive" is what I would call powerful.
Just look at their list of "elusive" backs:
1. Kareem Hunt
2. Chris Carson
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Jordan Howard
5. Jonathan Stewart
Those are mostly bigger/stronger backs who excel at running hard. They aren't really the guys who come to mind when I think of agility and making nice cuts. Lynch was extremely shifty in his prime, but now I'm not so sure. The others are not guys who I would consider to be among the most elusive players in the league. To me it looks more like a list of players who are good at running through contact, not so much players who are good at cutting and making people miss.
Yeah, I'd say that's fair. I haven't paid close attention to any of those guys this season, with the exception of Hunt, but they don't stick out to me as elusive (right now, at least). But I do think that Ajayi is one of the more elusive backs in the league, and PFF's metric have always loved him for that. Ajayi is certainly powerful, but plenty agile and has crazy balance. He makes plenty of "wow" cuts. I think Hunt is elusive in that same way. Maybe not at the level Ajayi was last season, but in the same mold.To me, elusive means making nice cuts/avoiding hits. What PFF is calling "elusive" is what I would call powerful.
Just look at their list of "elusive" backs:
1. Kareem Hunt
2. Chris Carson
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Jordan Howard
5. Jonathan Stewart
Those are mostly bigger/stronger backs who excel at running hard. They aren't really the guys who come to mind when I think of agility and making nice cuts. Lynch was extremely shifty in his prime, but now I'm not so sure. The others are not guys who I would consider to be among the most elusive players in the league. To me it looks more like a list of players who are good at running through contact, not so much players who are good at cutting and making people miss.
So how do you quantitatively measure 'elusive'To me, elusive means making nice cuts/avoiding hits. What PFF is calling "elusive" is what I would call powerful.
Just look at their list of "elusive" backs:
1. Kareem Hunt
2. Chris Carson
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Jordan Howard
5. Jonathan Stewart
Those are mostly bigger/stronger backs who excel at running hard. They aren't really the guys who come to mind when I think of agility and making nice cuts. Lynch was extremely shifty in his prime, but now I'm not so sure. The others are not guys who I would consider to be among the most elusive players in the league. To me it looks more like a list of players who are good at running through contact, not so much players who are good at cutting and making people miss.
If I understand what EBF is looking for, I don't know that you can. Take Tarik Cohen and Marshawn Lynch. Put them in space and a defense will have a much harder time getting a finger on Cohen. But if and when they do, they'll have a much harder time turing that into a stop against Marshawn Lynch. EBF wants the guy who's not getting hit, not necessarily the guy who gets hit, but requires 2 or 3 to go down. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) I'm not sure how you quantitatively measure how elusive Cohen is.So how do you quantitatively measure 'elusive'
That's basically how I understand EBF's take as well. But still, there needs to be a metric that tracks this so we can compare players and not just speak in generalities about what we think we saw.If I understand what EBF is looking for, I don't know that you can. Take Tarik Cohen and Marshawn Lynch. Put them in space and a defense will have a much harder time getting a finger on Cohen. But if and when they do, they'll have a much harder time turing that into a stop against Marshawn Lynch. EBF wants the guy who's not getting hit, not necessarily the guy who gets hit, but requires 2 or 3 to go down. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) I'm not sure how you quantitatively measure how elusive Cohen is.