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I did something like this with Hill recently, although got a better return -- I think that most Hill owners are asking for 1sts and there are a few non-Hill owners who might be willing to get into that range. My deal was in a 48-team league with 4 copies of each player but the deal (in 12-team terms) was Hill, 2.11, and 3.1 for 1.10.
I understand his usage numbers are a concern, but I kinda of expect that as a rookie. Would it not reasonable to assume those numbers would go up next year?
He currently has a high end RB2 ADP. I'd be looking to test that and move him for a pick in the 1.08-1.10 range. I'm certainly holding if a 2nd (or third) is the return. I'm selling under the assumption that others are more confident in him holding the job than I am. If that's not the case, I think you're right.
I don't disagree. As a fan of his game, I'm rooting for a bounce back. But him putting the weight back on, prior to the injury even, scares the hell out of me. I think his name value will keep his price above what I'm willing to pay. I'd rather go after a guy like Abdullah. (Although, checking Lacy's December ADP, I'd take him over some of the guys going ahead of him.)
Re: Hill, I was referring more to starting him during one of my failed playoff runs, where I didn't expect a big difference in usage week to week. Long term I agree it should be higher than the 30% he produced during the playoffs. That said, the history of ATH becoming slot WR isn't great. On the plus side, he's already outdone Austin's best year. His ADOT was low. Would be interested if he runs more deep routes next year, although with Alex Smith maybe that's not going to help much.
Is he legit like going to be Doug Baldwin or is he legit like he'll be reliable but replaceable from a fantasy standpoint? Terrance Williams also quietly had a good year from an efficiency standpoint. Why should they throw the ball more? Aikman never threw the ball more.
I honestly don't expect the Cowboys to try to throw the ball more. They have found a formula that works for them and I don't see the Cowboys changing that. When Murray had his huge year, then they let him go, the offense collapsed and so did the defense. They got Elliot and got back to winning 12 games. I don't see this changing.
I think Brice Butler can step into Williams role, and potentially exceed his production.
Yep that makes sense. Not sure if Butler is any better than Williams, don't know much about him. I think Williams is ok but nothing special. I had some higher hopes for him earlier in his career.
Not a big deal but he actually mentioned both startup value (which had been discussed as a 5th/6th round startup) and trade value (which had been discussed as the 1.4/1.5 rookie pick).
I think Lacy is a better RB and doesn't have the suspension over his head. Although I don't know how much of a risk an Adderall addiction is, as going to rehab for Adderall is a new one for dynasty (?). Martin almost definitely will be on a new team, since he is no longer worth the contract and can be cut. You could say Martin can restructure with TB. But I think that is less likely than Lacy back in GB on a prove it deal, in a timeshare with Montgomery. Not likely to be a team that overpays either like Jax did Ivory. Both will be looking to prove it and keep their careers going. I'd rather have a fat Eddie, but that's just my opinion.
He's a legit NFL player. He's one of the better slot receivers in the league. I'm not expecting him to ever be anything more than he was over the first half of this season, fantasy wise. He's no Doug Baldwin, but he's talented. He's a guy you can plug into your WR3/flex spot and use the savings to build advantages elsewhere.
How much is that really worth in the modern landscape? Those guys are a dime a dozen. Actually, they were a dime a dozen 10 years ago. They're even easier to find now.
They're not going to change the formula until they have to, or until Dak is so good that it's to their benefit to. But there's a lot of room for the PAs to increase and very little room for them to decrease. Dak's development; a step back defensively; injuries to the offensive line, Witten, or Dez; Collins not being able to fill Leary's shoes; Green not being able to replace Free's (17 or 18), etc., etc. I don't mean to suggest that any one factor is likely or pointing to an increase.
I never suggested he's worth more than anyone else on the list. Just that he's a good NFL player and that I'm buying. As for his career arch, he's ahead of Edelman and Amendola at this point in the process. He outperformed Jason Witten this year.
Was an easy comparison because of the team. Look at any team that dominated with OL/RB. 2006 Chargers, Rivers rookie season had only 460 attempts. His attempts went up but when/why? Because LT left the team after 2009. 486 in 09, 541 in 10. Great anecdotal evidence there, ha. I got lucky.Concept Coop said:
No offense but this is such a false narrative it just disturbs me when I keep hearing it. Dallas never missed Demarco and their collapse last season had nothing do with inability to run the ball. Drafting Elliot did not return them to the Demarco Murray formula. The difference in this year vs last year is Dak vs they littany of scrubs they put out at QB. There was no issues with the running game in the least last season other than it's harder to run when the defense does not respect the pass.Biabreakable said:
So it is all about the QB then? The difference was because Romo was hurt? Not because of the running game? If you are going to say my statement is false, I would appreciate you backing up your claim with some proof that maybe I could learn from. Just stating your opinion about this does not make it so.
I don't get this price range. If you had drafted Hill this year in the mid/low 2nd round of a dynasty rookie draft, you would be ecstatic about your return on that investment. Why would any owner trade him for that now?Concept Coop said:
He's not a developmental player. He's a veteran that's played below average for 2 straight years. Bengals beat writer says he is a backup next year.
They never struggled to run the ball, even with no Demarco or Elliot. Their RB's were 7th in league in rushing yards last season and with over 4.5 YPC which they were 5th in leauge. They went for about 600 yards less than previous season and .3 YPA less but those are items I'd argue were in large part not having a viable QB that could help sustain drives or keep defenses honest but the running game was still a huge success my any measure and the one thing that went right for that team. They basically had the running game and nothing else. And I'm guilty of saying no Romo or viable QB was major issue but also Dez missed a lot of time and was a shell of himself.
I was talking about Tyreek Hill, not Jeremy... as was the guy I quoted, I think (but I could be wrong). As far as Tyreek's upside, I would say about WR15
Also I meant to add I agree with our basic thought ,the Cowboys formula is to run the ball and that is not going to change. I have zero doubt their plan when they picked Elliot was to run him into the ground, Jerry said as much the night of the draft. Unless the OL starts crumbling they won't be changing this approach. I just disagreed, strongly as you might conclude, that the offense collapse last season had anything to do with Demarco leaving.Biabreakable said:
I never suggested that wasn't an issue or that they were ineffective running the ball in 2015. I was talking about the volume. Obviously being able to convert some third downs more frequently helps extend drives. Defenses play better with a lead as well, but without good QB play the offense does not score enough points to put the defense in that position.
That's fair--and maybe you're right. He was undrafted in my leagues, so a 2nd round pick would still be profit. I'm not willing to pay a first round pick for him, personally. The talent is obvious, but the route to WR1 numbers is not to me. He reminds me a bit of Cordarrelle in that way. I moved him early in the year for a 3rd; maybe my current valuation is just as off. Would you send a 1st for him?
We're discussing this in the Dynasty Trades thread, and I found that league scoring can have a huge impact. I just did a check, Hill got 2.4 PPG from return yardage in two of my leagues that reward them. He goes from overall WR9 to WR21 in full PPR without those (a little less impact in reduced PPR). That can have a massive impact on his value. In my return yards leagues, I cannot name 12 rookies I would rather have than Hill.
Would you pay, say, the 1.03? It's crazy to think that a few years ago, multiple QBs were going in the first round of startups. Today, the top guy is a 3rd/4th round pick. I think he's certainly worth targeting now, but I would be hard for me to give up a premium draft pick for any QB today. I'd add Newton to that list--buy low, but not at prices I'd have paid for him in the past.
Yes I would. He's just entering his prime and will play for a long time (unless he gets killed behind that line, which is a possibility I suppose).
I wouldn't but it's pretty close. I have 1.03 in one league and I have it reserved for Mixon, assuming he doesn't have any disasters between now and then. If Mixon weren't in the picture and QB was a big need I probably would.
Your evaluation seems about right but it's kind of crazy to see hill was a top 10 receiver this year and is being valued below that.
Very close, I think the 3 is the asking price if I have luck but in 12 team leagues I wouldn't pay a top 3 pick, probably 4 or 5. Depends on need and league scoring.
I'm struggling with this but with getting 2018 picks in return. Any thoughts on what Luck should be worth there? (Start 1 QB league.)
Trading for picks a year out can be tricky. I'd want at least two 2018 1sts for him. That assuming I had a viable replacement. I wouldn't make that move if I then had to send one of the picks for a QB.
You make sense. I also have Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins.
I would probably trade 1.1 for him if I was rebuilding (earned the 1.1). I don't feel confident about any of the WR. Why not secure a safe player and go from there. I like that his stats this year are basically a carbon copy of 2 years ago before the shoulder injury, same rating, same avg yards per attempt, slightly higher %.
Struggling with this as well. Have been thinking about offering up a young WR3 type like Sterling Shepard who seems to have a low ceiling long term, wondering what I should be trying to get back it anything. Jordy is showing he can win without getting separation, which means his game will age well as long as he stays healthy.
Quick reaction is that as a contending Jordy owner I'd move him for pick 5 or earlier and wouldn't for pick 9 or later. In the middle coin toss, have to get a better feel for rookies coming out.
