voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Watkins at 34? Lol the guy will be out of the league within 2 years. Metcalf is pretty high for my liking. Not too bad though.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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wlwiles
Footballguy
This list is timely for me, thank you! So without going too AC-post in here, what # on this list is worth trading a late 2020 1st for? In my 2nd year so still learning the dynasty ropes, been thinking of flipping a pick (would ideally be pick # 11-12 overall) for a WR for a title push this year. Is there a tiered list where for example "Tier 3 + 1st round pick = Tier 2" type of comparison?
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t love the list, but I’d pay a late first for the top 26, with the exception of Cooks. Then it’s hit and miss. I’d also pay a late 1st for Deebo, AJ Brown, M Brown, Gallup, and Terry.
Boone22
Footballguy
I’d definitely pay a mid/late first for anyone in the top 19. From 20 - 32 I’d have to look at them on a case by case basis. I see a few guys in there I’d definitely pay a first for and some guys in there I wouldn’t pay more than a 2nd for.
I'd say late 2nd but I wouldn't pay it personally. Plenty of other more interesting young WRs to target (including his teammate Johnson, who I'd much rather have for a similar price).
Also plenty of upcoming rookies to spend that pick on who could well end up better than Washington.
I’d hold the pick at this point, which makes Washington difficult to sell.
Yeah it's tough. Honestly in this draft class I'd probably be fine to sell him for a third, but I realise most people would see that as a lateral move at best (and he probably cost a 2nd in his rookie draft). I just don't seem much future upside with Washington. Basically a #3 WR on his team, occasional flex in a good matchup or with an injury to another WR. That's not worth much.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Here's my top 30 WR's at the moment for dynasty purposes
1. DeAndre Hopkins
2. Michael Thomas
3. Chris Godwin
4. JuJu Smith-Schuster (I'm well aware his current value isn't this high but he's so young and I think he'll rise back to this spot with Ben next season and long term)
5. Tyreek Hill
6. Amari Cooper
7. OBJ
8. Tyler Lockett
9. Mike Evans
10. Davante Adams
11. Keenan Allen
12. Kenny Golladay
13. Courtland Sutton
14. DJ Moore
15. AJ Brown
16. Stefon Diggs
17. Cooper Kupp
18. Julio Jones
19. TY Hilton
20. Adam Thielen
21. Allen Robinson (I'm hoping for a QB upgrade in the offseason. It's so clear Trubisky isn't the answer, but NFL teams tend to take longer to realize for some reason)
22. DJ Chark
23. Terry McLaurin
24. Michael Gallup
25. DK Metcalf
26. Preston Williams
27. Deebo Samuel
28. AJ Green
29. Robert Woods
30. Christian Kirk
2020 1st round WR's will likely be inserted somewhere as high as 6 and as low as 17 depending on my overall eval's, draft position, and landing spots. I would not pay a 1st for anyone below 20, as I think they just get pushed down the rankings more than rise to the challenge of being a high value asset. There's 3 guys between 20-30 that I think could elevate themselves but that would be an irrational ranking and a "blind faith" type of acquisition, which I try my best not to do. Like the Juju ranking, it's irrational. Those 3 are McLaurin, Preston Williams, and Deebo. I would imagine anyone on this list requires a 1st (minimum) from the sellers point of view though.
1. DeAndre Hopkins
2. Michael Thomas
3. Chris Godwin
4. JuJu Smith-Schuster (I'm well aware his current value isn't this high but he's so young and I think he'll rise back to this spot with Ben next season and long term)
5. Tyreek Hill
6. Amari Cooper
7. OBJ
8. Tyler Lockett
9. Mike Evans
10. Davante Adams
11. Keenan Allen
12. Kenny Golladay
13. Courtland Sutton
14. DJ Moore
15. AJ Brown
16. Stefon Diggs
17. Cooper Kupp
18. Julio Jones
19. TY Hilton
20. Adam Thielen
21. Allen Robinson (I'm hoping for a QB upgrade in the offseason. It's so clear Trubisky isn't the answer, but NFL teams tend to take longer to realize for some reason)
22. DJ Chark
23. Terry McLaurin
24. Michael Gallup
25. DK Metcalf
26. Preston Williams
27. Deebo Samuel
28. AJ Green
29. Robert Woods
30. Christian Kirk
2020 1st round WR's will likely be inserted somewhere as high as 6 and as low as 17 depending on my overall eval's, draft position, and landing spots. I would not pay a 1st for anyone below 20, as I think they just get pushed down the rankings more than rise to the challenge of being a high value asset. There's 3 guys between 20-30 that I think could elevate themselves but that would be an irrational ranking and a "blind faith" type of acquisition, which I try my best not to do. Like the Juju ranking, it's irrational. Those 3 are McLaurin, Preston Williams, and Deebo. I would imagine anyone on this list requires a 1st (minimum) from the sellers point of view though.
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Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
No Ridley ?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've always been pretty low on him, but it's hard to ignore what he's doing. I'd trade a late 1st/2nd package without question. I wouldn't like it, but might trade a mid 1st for him if I needed a back. I couldn't bring myself to trade a top 4 pick for him, however.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Obligatory - Keenan Allen seems like a big name guy we should be dropping in the waivers amirite?
You're very high on Moore, care to say why? As I said before I just don't see a wr being able to maintain big numbers in the CMC offense, especially with all the changes that are going on in car now.
Love the Deebo blind faith. Call me an irrational believer as well.
How does aj green still make this list for dynasty? Does he play three years from now? And for who?
He hasn’t had less than 8 targets since Week 5, with most weeks having double digits, and that’s with CMC on his tear. He’s solidified himself as the clear number 1 WR in the offense, and in my opinion has shown he’s capable of being an alpha dog number 1 in this league for a long time. And he won’t even turn 23 until next year. It’s fair to be concerned with what’s going to happen with the QB situation in Carolina, but I would bet on the talent and him climbing even higher in the dynasty rankings in the next couple of years.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
As a Tyler Boyd owner, i couldn’t see trading him for anyone below Metcalf (and there’s a couple guys above him I’d have lower).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't see why putting a 22 year old WR on pace to finish with 98-1300-5 as a high dynasty WR2 is "very high" on him. That's only slightly off the pace of what JuJu did last year when he became a top 5 dynasty WR (with some people arguing he was the #1 dynasty WR in the offseason).
It makes sense. He's got the draft pedigree, is still very young, and is producing with (IMO) more upside to come. If Godwin can be a top 5 WR in most rankings now, based on hype and a handful of huge weeks this season, then Moore's ranking isn't a stretch at all.
jeter23
Footballguy
Yeah, the real issue with rankings right now (and it's a good problem) is there are so many potential top-tier WRs. Few of the WR1s from the offseason have lost value and then Moore, Sutton, Golladay, etc are moving up. Julio will be the victim. I expect him to fall out of top-15 of offseason ADP.
This. I actually own both in dynasty, and some people might would call me crazy, but it’d probably be harder for me to trade Moore than Godwin. I absolutely loved him coming out and he’s already putting it all together at age 22. Just think of what he’s going to be doing in two years.
northern exposure
Footballguy
What price in terms of 2020 rookie draft pick would you give to Devante Parker? I took over an orphaned team and snuck into the playoffs (6th seed in 12 tm SF dynasty). WRs are my weak spot on my roster, but a 1st is too high imo.
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Boone22
Footballguy
I think it depend a lot on league. Is it a PPR league? I think he’s less valuable in PPR leagues the way he’s currently being used.
For my personal situation, it is a PPR league, but he still ranks #4 among RBs and #20 overall. Doesn't seem like he could be much higher than those ranks in a non-PPR league. He'd probably be the #1 RB in non-PPR, but I'm not sure that makes much of a difference in terms of trade value.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
As a Henry owner such an offer would get a reject without a counter from me. It wouldn't even begin the conversation. Not that I'm looking to sell but it would take a minimum of two 1sts with one being early, or a starting player plus a 1st. And even then it would have to knock my socks off.Concept Coop said:
I'd say maybe one or two RBs in this class as being on par with Henry, with the tiebreaker going to Henry for having actually done it in the NFL.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
I was offered:
DHenry and TLockett
for
my Bell and Julio
Gotta take that right?
I also have McCaffrey, Hopkins, Godwin, KAllen, DFreeman
DHenry and TLockett
for
my Bell and Julio
Gotta take that right?
I also have McCaffrey, Hopkins, Godwin, KAllen, DFreeman
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That’s perfectly fair. His UFA status scares me a bit. I think Tennessee is a great spot for him. Do they pay up? Does he hold out if they franchise him? But ultimately he’s too TD dependent for my tastes, and I don’t anticipate his TD rate holding.
I think my valuation is on the low end and yours on the high end. It sounds like you view him on par with the 1.01. I think that’s at least as far from the mean as my 1.06ish.
I would agree, I don't think anyone is paying that high a price for a RB that doesn't catch passes and is probably looking to cash in with his only big contract due to his age. If I owned him and was a contender, I wouldn't sell for the 1.06 either as I'd be hoping he resigns in Tennessee and he continues to put up big rushing/TD numbers next year.
Tenn has a lot of cap space (although middle of the pack compared to all teams), so my guess is he resigns, but stranger things have happened with runningbacks the last few years.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I try my best to avoid reading hype of any prospects until I take a look at them myself. So I'm just now starting to dive into 2020 players. Got through a few RB's today for some initial reactions and note jotting. But then I looked at my top15 dynasty RB's in my rankings and noticed they're basically all 25 years old or below. Plus the ~3-5 more you add in for 2020 (into a top20) we could be looking at a really deep RB landscape coming up if these rookies hit, and the players in the league continue with what they've done.
Just an interesting observation that a top20 could look very different depending on who you ask. I would imagine a top2 is pretty clear, but after that it could literally be any number of 10 other guys. There's a case to be made for them all.
Just an interesting observation that a top20 could look very different depending on who you ask. I would imagine a top2 is pretty clear, but after that it could literally be any number of 10 other guys. There's a case to be made for them all.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Rank these TE's for their future dynasty value
Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith Jr, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly
All of them showed off a little this year at times, all are basically 26 or younger (except Higbee who is 27), and all are potential breakout's next year.
Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith Jr, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly
All of them showed off a little this year at times, all are basically 26 or younger (except Higbee who is 27), and all are potential breakout's next year.
joey
Footballguy
I got a late 2020 1st rounders + Kerryon Johnson for Deebo (late 1st rounder turned into the 1.12 unfortunately. non-ppr fwiw.) but it seemed like good enough value to sell Deebo at the time. OF course, then Deebo has a nice end of season run and I'm kicking myself a little. But there are those who'd pay a late 1st, I think.
Personally I'd rank them:
Jonnu Smith
Tyler Higbee
Ian Thomas
Irv Smith Jr
Will Dissly
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
The top of this list is tough as Higbee has now got the proven production (which feels a bit weird to say) and is in a good offense. I still view Smith as a better talent though and with some upside to come (even with some uncertainty about how he will be used going forward) so I'd still put him higher - even just thinking about who I'd be more excited about having on my team, that would be Smith over Higbee. Higbee's is a nice target though if you need immediate production.
Ian Thomas is a pretty close third for me and could move up depending on what happens with the new coaching staff. He feels like a bit more of a dart throw than the other two right now though. I like Irv Smith as a talent but Rudolph is still there and week to week I don't see his usage being consistent. I'll rank him here though because I see him probably still holding his value through next season even if he does not much because people had a high opinion of him coming out as the TE3 in that class.
The others are a bit more uninteresting to me. Dissly is a guy I wouldn't mind having on the end of my roster as a third TE but the combination of that offense, the emergence of Metcalf, the injuries and even the presence of Hollister move him down a fair bit relative to what he's shown on the field (which is more than Ian Thomas and Irv Smith at this point, and maybe even Jonnu).
Everett and Hurst are a full tier or two below the others for me. Everett just seems like he's not going to happen, despite the draft capital and move TE profile, especially now that Hignee has emerged. Maybe on a second team that uses him more? I don't have much hope for him on the Rams and I didn't see him as worth his draft pick coming out. At the time the pick seemed like a blatant attempt to recreate Jordan Reed with an inferior player and it just hasn't worked out.
Hurst is just roster clogger material for me when you taken into account the competition from Andrews, the run heavy offense and his age. He was a first rounder and he has produced a bit when he gets opportunity, but it's hard to see any consistent production in the future from him. In TE premium he should be rostered but I wouldn't bother in most other formats, even very deep leagues.
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I would rank those TEs:
Tyler Higbee
W. Dissly
J. Smith
Ian Thomas
Irv Smith Jr
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
Tyler Higbee
W. Dissly
J. Smith
Ian Thomas
Irv Smith Jr
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
ZWK
Footballguy
Irv Smith Jr
Tyler Higbee
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
Will Dissly
Jonnu Smith
Ian Thomas
My TE rankings.
Tyler Higbee
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
Will Dissly
Jonnu Smith
Ian Thomas
My TE rankings.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
26 TDs in his last 20 games since he was made bellcow. Scored a TD in 15/20 games. Personally at this point I am bullish on the Tenn offense in general taking another step forward next year. I don't really give them much of a chance against Baltimore but that's less an indictment of them and more about how good the Ravens look. Then again, if they just give it to Henry on every play again they might just win.But I do think there are TDs to be had in the Tennessee future, with Henry the key cog in that.
It's certainly fair to question that he'll hold that TD rate, but even if it went down a bit he would still be an RB1. Finished this season as RB3 in PPR in points per game.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
As a rebuttal, I would ask what has G. Everett or H. Hurst done? Even I. Thomas? I. Thomas had a good stretch in 2018, but did nothing with expanded playing time in stretches this year. I had J. Smith 3rd, but I could be talked into sliding him behind Irv Smith. I switched Irv and Thomas after this post after talking it out loud.
Tyler Higbee
W. Dissly
J. Smith
Irv Smith Jr
I. Thomas
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Denver724
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I'll justify those ahead of Irv.
Higbee had an impressive stretch to end the year, he looked legit.
Dissly seemed to have quite the start to the year. Will was largely considered not very athletic so I hope he can come back from achilles more than someone that is strictly athletic or plays athletic position. I oftentimes think that position switch is overblown, but Dissly switched from DE to TE his freshman year of college so he still may be learning somethings at the position. I like him to come back strong next year.
J. Smith seemed very explosive and I liked what I saw after D. Walker went down. I think J. smith is TE1 for the Titans next year and that offense looks to have turned around in a big way.
Irv seemed to flash here and there. Rudolph is signed through 2023 and realistically will be on roster through 2021 season, unless Vikings willing to take 5.8 mill cap hit next year or 4.3 mill cap hit 2021. I like Irv to eventually be starter, but those above have track to be TE1 on their team next year.
