Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Adam Harstad]

Glad to see many understanding that Hunter is a freaky special talent. Olympic/semi-Olympic/special Olympic/close to Olympic/state champ/national champ/ super jumper/super fast - whatever degree you want to use or are comfortable with HE IS A FREAKISH TALENT WHO WAS UNDERVALUED in last years rookie drafts. Partly because he hurt himself and did not have the statistical résumé or was the highest of draft picks.

I salivate when talent like Justin Hunter is undervalued by the masses for whatever reason.

I did enjoy this banter and discussion about Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin. Good stuff!

You know the really ironic part of this? You keep railing against the fact that someone would rely heavily on draft position when doing their player evals, and you offer up Justin Hunter as the perfect example. Out of the 13 sets of staff rookie rankings, only three guys had Hunter in their top 10. Two of those three guys were the two who explicitly anchor their rankings heavily to draft position (Parsons had him 7th and I had him 9th. Pasquino was the third, with Hunter at 8th).Hunter wasn't a late draft pick who fell through the cracks. He was a HIGH draft pick who fell through the cracks. Guy was two picks away from being a first rounder. The guys who were highest on him were usually the guys touting draft position as the best indicator. The staff did a startup dynasty last offseason, and you know who wound up with Hunter? I did. I even commented at the time about how crazy it was that Hunter went 4 picks after Patterson in the NFL draft and four rounds after him in the startup.

If Hunter winds up hitting, he's going to be a feather in the cap of the "draft position is the strongest indicator" camp.

 

[Brewtown]

Glad to see many understanding that Hunter is a freaky special talent. Olympic/semi-Olympic/special Olympic/close to Olympic/state champ/national champ/ super jumper/super fast - whatever degree you want to use or are comfortable with HE IS A FREAKISH TALENT WHO WAS UNDERVALUED in last years rookie drafts. Partly because he hurt himself and did not have the statistical résumé or was the highest of draft picks.

I salivate when talent like Justin Hunter is undervalued by the masses for whatever reason.

I did enjoy this banter and discussion about Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin. Good stuff!

You know the really ironic part of this? You keep railing against the fact that someone would rely heavily on draft position when doing their player evals, and you offer up Justin Hunter as the perfect example. Out of the 13 sets of staff rookie rankings, only three guys had Hunter in their top 10. Two of those three guys were the two who explicitly anchor their rankings heavily to draft position (Parsons had him 7th and I had him 9th. Pasquino was the third, with Hunter at 8th).Hunter wasn't a late draft pick who fell through the cracks. He was a HIGH draft pick who fell through the cracks. Guy was two picks away from being a first rounder. The guys who were highest on him were usually the guys touting draft position as the best indicator. The staff did a startup dynasty last offseason, and you know who wound up with Hunter? I did. I even commented at the time about how crazy it was that Hunter went 4 picks after Patterson in the NFL draft and four rounds after him in the startup.

If Hunter winds up hitting, he's going to be a feather in the cap of the "draft position is the strongest indicator" camp.

Really - Wow, interesting take....I don't agree with that...

 

[Adam Harstad]

The thing I always wanted to know, how many posters share a league. A lot of days I feel like I'm the only guy not in a the league as the other 11 posters.

I'm not in any leagues with anyone in this thread, except for a few of the staffers who stumble in once in a blue moon (Sigmund, Pasquino, Tefertiller, etc.) If I seem overly familiar with anyone, it's just from... what, 6 years and 425 pages of chatting? 7 years? I'd say I've probably interacted more with a lot of the guys in this thread than I have with most of my long-running leaguemates.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Okay, I will play along, just using the guys you listed. I haven't double-checked to see if I am missing anyone. This is pre-combine, pre-draft and will obviously change based on those two events.

1- Keenan Allen

2- Sammy Watkins

3- Deandre Hopkins

4- Marqise Lee

5- Allen Robinson (like him a lot)

6- Cordarelle Patterson (can he learn to run routes?)

7- Mike Evans

8- DaRick Rogers (I like his skillset, fantastic athleticism and situation)

9- Aaron Dobson

10- Tavon Austin (don't like him due to size, usage concerns)

11- Jordan Matthews
12- Robert Woods

13- Kelvin Benjamin (not a fan, old coming out)
14- Davante Adams (like his size and market share of team yards and TDs)
15- Justin Hunter

16- Markus Wheaton

17-Jarvis Landry (great hands, and better share of TDs and yardage compared to Beckham)

18- Brandin Cooks (awesome, but small)

19- Donte Moncrief (good size)

20- Terrence Williams (not a big fan)

21- Stedman Bailey
22- Odell Beckum Jr

23- Paul Richardson

24- Jared Abbrederis

25-Kenny Stills

26- Marlon Brown

27- Kenbrell Thompkins

Edited to add: Wheaton and Bailey



Cody Hoffman (haven't researched him enough to rate)
Brandon Coleman (haven't researched him enough to rate)

 

[Adam Harstad]

Glad to see many understanding that Hunter is a freaky special talent. Olympic/semi-Olympic/special Olympic/close to Olympic/state champ/national champ/ super jumper/super fast - whatever degree you want to use or are comfortable with HE IS A FREAKISH TALENT WHO WAS UNDERVALUED in last years rookie drafts. Partly because he hurt himself and did not have the statistical résumé or was the highest of draft picks.

I salivate when talent like Justin Hunter is undervalued by the masses for whatever reason.

I did enjoy this banter and discussion about Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin. Good stuff!

You know the really ironic part of this? You keep railing against the fact that someone would rely heavily on draft position when doing their player evals, and you offer up Justin Hunter as the perfect example. Out of the 13 sets of staff rookie rankings, only three guys had Hunter in their top 10. Two of those three guys were the two who explicitly anchor their rankings heavily to draft position (Parsons had him 7th and I had him 9th. Pasquino was the third, with Hunter at 8th).Hunter wasn't a late draft pick who fell through the cracks. He was a HIGH draft pick who fell through the cracks. Guy was two picks away from being a first rounder. The guys who were highest on him were usually the guys touting draft position as the best indicator. The staff did a startup dynasty last offseason, and you know who wound up with Hunter? I did. I even commented at the time about how crazy it was that Hunter went 4 picks after Patterson in the NFL draft and four rounds after him in the startup.

If Hunter winds up hitting, he's going to be a feather in the cap of the "draft position is the strongest indicator" camp.

Really - Wow, interesting take....I don't agree with that...

You don't agree that 34th overall (and the 6th skill player of any stripe off the board) qualifies as a high draft pick? Or you don't agree that the "draft position guys" were higher on Hunter than the vast majority of the "scout it yourself" guys?

 

[opensourcebeer]

The thing I always wanted to know, how many posters share a league. A lot of days I feel like I'm the only guy not in a the league as the other 11 posters.

I'm not in any leagues with anyone in this thread, except for a few of the staffers who stumble in once in a blue moon (Sigmund, Pasquino, Tefertiller, etc.) If I seem overly familiar with anyone, it's just from... what, 6 years and 425 pages of chatting? 7 years? I'd say I've probably interacted more with a lot of the guys in this thread than I have with most of my long-running leaguemates.

Good post, thank you.

I swear most of the time I'm talking about what a good band Fugazi is.

 

[Brewtown]

Glad to see many understanding that Hunter is a freaky special talent. Olympic/semi-Olympic/special Olympic/close to Olympic/state champ/national champ/ super jumper/super fast - whatever degree you want to use or are comfortable with HE IS A FREAKISH TALENT WHO WAS UNDERVALUED in last years rookie drafts. Partly because he hurt himself and did not have the statistical résumé or was the highest of draft picks.

I salivate when talent like Justin Hunter is undervalued by the masses for whatever reason.

I did enjoy this banter and discussion about Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin. Good stuff!

You know the really ironic part of this? You keep railing against the fact that someone would rely heavily on draft position when doing their player evals, and you offer up Justin Hunter as the perfect example. Out of the 13 sets of staff rookie rankings, only three guys had Hunter in their top 10. Two of those three guys were the two who explicitly anchor their rankings heavily to draft position (Parsons had him 7th and I had him 9th. Pasquino was the third, with Hunter at 8th).Hunter wasn't a late draft pick who fell through the cracks. He was a HIGH draft pick who fell through the cracks. Guy was two picks away from being a first rounder. The guys who were highest on him were usually the guys touting draft position as the best indicator. The staff did a startup dynasty last offseason, and you know who wound up with Hunter? I did. I even commented at the time about how crazy it was that Hunter went 4 picks after Patterson in the NFL draft and four rounds after him in the startup.

If Hunter winds up hitting, he's going to be a feather in the cap of the "draft position is the strongest indicator" camp.

Really - Wow, interesting take....I don't agree with that...

You don't agree that 34th overall (and the 6th skill player of any stripe off the board) qualifies as a high draft pick? Or you don't agree that the "draft position guys" were higher on Hunter than the vast majority of the "scout it yourself" guys?

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

 

[Adam Harstad]

The thing I always wanted to know, how many posters share a league. A lot of days I feel like I'm the only guy not in a the league as the other 11 posters.

I'm not in any leagues with anyone in this thread, except for a few of the staffers who stumble in once in a blue moon (Sigmund, Pasquino, Tefertiller, etc.) If I seem overly familiar with anyone, it's just from... what, 6 years and 425 pages of chatting? 7 years? I'd say I've probably interacted more with a lot of the guys in this thread than I have with most of my long-running leaguemates.

Good post, thank you. I swear most of the time I'm talking about what a good band Fugazi is.

I am a patient boy. I wait, I wait, I wait, I wait; my time is like water down the drain.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=684696

Every WR ahead of Hunter had a higher NFL draft position. Granted polls (or ADP for that matter) can skew safe. Other than Allen I don't recall anyone being in the same conversation as Hunter.

There were contrarians (just like there were on the 3 1st rounders) but not enough to skew his average draft position.

For comparison's sake AJ Jenkins had 6 WRs taken after him with higher poll position.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

The thing I always wanted to know, how many posters share a league. A lot of days I feel like I'm the only guy not in a the league as the other 11 posters.

I'm not in any leagues with anyone in this thread, except for a few of the staffers who stumble in once in a blue moon (Sigmund, Pasquino, Tefertiller, etc.) If I seem overly familiar with anyone, it's just from... what, 6 years and 425 pages of chatting? 7 years? I'd say I've probably interacted more with a lot of the guys in this thread than I have with most of my long-running leaguemates.

Good post, thank you.I swear most of the time I'm talking about what a good band Fugazi is.

I am a patient boy. I wait, I wait, I wait, I wait; my time is like water down the drain.

Everybody's moving, everybody's moving, everybody's moving, moving, moving, moving!

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=684696

Every WR ahead of Hunter had a higher NFL draft position. Granted polls (or ADP for that matter) can skew safe. Other than Allen I don't recall anyone being in the same conversation as Hunter.

There were contrarians (just like there were on the 3 1st rounders) but not enough to skew his average draft position.

For comparison's sake AJ Jenkins had 6 WRs taken after him with higher poll position.

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rookies.phpFantasyPros expert consensus, an aggregation of 28 different sets of rookie rankings, has Hunter at WR16.

 

[thriftyrocker]

WR7, overall 16. Only Wheaton and Allen jumped him.

Very different argument to say "Experts" rankings have him lower. More likely to be naysayers.

Very few expert rankings are chalk. Very many rookie drafts are.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I have to be a monkey flying off a cliff like Brewtown said, or a jabroni. I could not figure out for the life of me why everyone had a hard on for Gio and Austin until now. They went top-3 in every rookie draft I participated in.

I was being a #### but those are actual comments I get a lot here.

 

[Adam Harstad]

WR7, overall 16. Only Wheaton and Allen jumped him.

Very different argument to say "Experts" rankings have him lower. More likely to be naysayers.

Very few expert rankings are chalk. Very many rookie drafts are.

True, but the rookie drafts are more likely to be chalk because a lot of owners anchor to draft position, and expert rankings are less likely to be chalk because experts are more likely to deviate from draft position in an attempt to create a value add. If Hunter winds up hitting, it'll be a win for drafting chalk picks.Edit: Woods also jumped him in the expert consensus, as did players at other positions. Lacy/Bell/Bernard/Ball/Michael jumping him doesn't raise my eyebrows because of positional importance, but Franklin/Lattimore/Stacy over Hunter is a pretty big deviation from draft value.

 

[thriftyrocker]

True, but the rookie drafts are more likely to be chalk because a lot of owners anchor to draft position, and expert rankings are less likely to be chalk because experts are more likely to deviate from draft position in an attempt to create a value add. If Hunter winds up hitting, it'll be a win for drafting chalk picks.

There are three things here, expert rankings, ADP, and NFL draft position. Chalk was the wrong word when I'm really referring to ADP. IMO most drafts follow ADP pretty closely. If you are providing a strategy (or value add) it is to break against ADP. If the strategy is to more closely adhere to NFL draft position, NFL draft stock tells you to take Hunter at his ADP. If Hunter plays up to his ADP there was no value added. If his play exceeds his ADP, following his NFL draft position deserves no credit; it did not predict that. At best Hunter's career can be a push for the strategy of using NFL draft position. You can argue it would be evidence that trusting fantasy draftniks had a "loss". Jeffery was a "loss" for NFL draft position in 2012. As were Martin and Jenkins. Probably the biggest "win" in recent memory for NFL draft position was Cam.

 

[gianmarco]

Brewtown, the other day I posted that you were the worst thing to happen to draft discussion here in a long time--within hours it had 7-8 likes. That should tell you something.

Keep it classy wonderful...

Bunch of over-respectful nose in the air goody goodys on this board.

So which is it?

If I told you how I really feel.... I would be banned from this board!

SMDB!

Hi Phenix!!

 

[ShaHBucks]

12 of 22 Seahawks starters drafted in the 4th or later. Hmm..

 

[Concept Coop]

There are three things here, expert rankings, ADP, and NFL draft position. Chalk was the wrong word when I'm really referring to ADP. IMO most drafts follow ADP pretty closely. If you are providing a strategy (or value add) it is to break against ADP. If the strategy is to more closely adhere to NFL draft position, NFL draft stock tells you to take Hunter at his ADP. If Hunter plays up to his ADP there was no value added. If his play exceeds his ADP, following his NFL draft position deserves no credit; it did not predict that. At best Hunter's career can be a push for the strategy of using NFL draft position. You can argue it would be evidence that trusting fantasy draftniks had a "loss". Jeffery was a "loss" for NFL draft position in 2012. As were Martin and Jenkins. Probably the biggest "win" in recent memory for NFL draft position was Cam.

ADP is already heavily influenced by the two other factors you're measuring against it. Hunter and Allen were closer in ADP than in NFL draft position. Drafting Hunter at his ADP was a lean towards draft position, while Allen at his was a lean against it.

 

[Concept Coop]

12 of 22 Seahawks starters drafted in the 4th or later. Hmm..

They're quite an exception, historically. Thanks for the trivia bit.

 

[thriftyrocker]

ADP is already heavily influenced by the two other factors you're measuring against it. Hunter and Allen were closer in ADP than in NFL draft position. Drafting Hunter at his ADP was a lean towards draft position, while Allen at his was a lean against it.

ADP filters everything, yes. Including pre-draft ranking, post-draft ranking, combine performance, NCAA history, team they were drafted to, etc. Narrowing it down to two names does not show anything. I do believe Allen's ADP has a big connection to his pre-draft ranking as the #1 WR. Yes I agree with you people who took Allen were generally ignoring draft position. But no that doesn't mean that people who took Hunter obeyed it. He is still a 6'4 WR with 4.3 speed from the SEC. Why did Brian Quick have a similar ADP and similar NFL draft position last year but AJ Jenkins did not? Because normal humans were able to look at Quick and Hunter's fitting the prototype and buy into their NFL draft placement, whereas it was harder to do with Jenkins. So I refute your 2 point data set.

 

[Concept Coop]

ADP filters everything, yes. Including pre-draft ranking, post-draft ranking, combine performance, NCAA history, team they were drafted to, etc. Narrowing it down to two names does not show anything. I do believe Allen's ADP has a big connection to his pre-draft ranking as the #1 WR. Yes I agree with you people who took Allen were generally ignoring draft position. But no that doesn't mean that people who took Hunter obeyed it. He is still a 6'4 WR with 4.3 speed from the SEC. Why did Brian Quick have a similar ADP and similar NFL draft position last year but AJ Jenkins did not? Because normal humans were able to look at Quick and Hunter's fitting the prototype and buy into their NFL draft placement, whereas it was harder to do with Jenkins. So I refute your 2 point data set.

If Hunter doesn't qualify, I think we'll have a hard time finding many examples. Knile Davis and T.Williams? Not Cam; RG3/Luck are an exception and not the rule.

It seems your criteria makes it easy to ID a guy as draftnik model, but difficult to do the opposite. Especially in the first round (ff/rook).

Hunter was a tier below Patterson and Hopkins, who only went 5-7 picks ahead of him in the NFL draft. He was drafted next to Wheaton and Allen, who went 40+ picks after him. This despite him being a 6'4 WR with 4.3 speed from the SEC. Not because of it.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

12 of 22 Seahawks starters drafted in the 4th or later. Hmm..

They're quite an exception, historically. Thanks for the trivia bit.

I wonder if Luke Willson will join that group once Zach Miller gets cut.

 

[ShaHBucks]

12 of 22 Seahawks starters drafted in the 4th or later. Hmm..

They're quite an exception, historically. Thanks for the trivia bit.

I wonder if Luke Willson will join that group once Zach Miller gets cut.

No way. He was a 5th round pick. It doesn't matter that he was arguably the most athletic TE in this class.

 

[jeter23]

Hey guys, if you'd like to participate in the DLF mocks, you can sign up here. http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/contactus/mock-draft-registration/

We are just starting the February mocks today and incoming rookies will be included. Feel free to include your FBG name instead of Twitter name, if you choose.

 

[thriftyrocker]

ADP filters everything, yes. Including pre-draft ranking, post-draft ranking, combine performance, NCAA history, team they were drafted to, etc. Narrowing it down to two names does not show anything. I do believe Allen's ADP has a big connection to his pre-draft ranking as the #1 WR. Yes I agree with you people who took Allen were generally ignoring draft position. But no that doesn't mean that people who took Hunter obeyed it. He is still a 6'4 WR with 4.3 speed from the SEC. Why did Brian Quick have a similar ADP and similar NFL draft position last year but AJ Jenkins did not? Because normal humans were able to look at Quick and Hunter's fitting the prototype and buy into their NFL draft placement, whereas it was harder to do with Jenkins. So I refute your 2 point data set.

If Hunter doesn't qualify, I think we'll have a hard time finding many examples. Knile Davis and T.Williams? Not Cam; RG3/Luck are an exception and not the rule.

It seems your criteria makes it easy to ID a guy as draftnik model, but difficult to do the opposite. Especially in the first round (ff/rook).

Hunter was a tier below Patterson and Hopkins, who only went 5-7 picks ahead of him in the NFL draft. He was drafted next to Wheaton and Allen, who went 40+ picks after him. This despite him being a 6'4 WR with 4.3 speed from the SEC. Not because of it.

I definitely think Cam qualifies given he was 1.1. His FaustPoll ADP was sandwiched between Delone Carter and Leonard Hankerson at the end of the 1st, and in practice he went in the 2nd a lot of times as no one much wanted him. Based on NFL pick pedigree, his ADP should have been several picks higher.

It is hard to identify people who favor the NFL draft position more than others because most people act this way. Most people act rationally. Using NFL draft position is only useful when identifying how people react to players who rise/drop in fantasy drafts more than you'd expect like Allen, Stacy, Cam, AJ Jenkins, LaMichael James, Knile Davis, EJ Manuel, Ertz, Escobar, McDonald, Gronk, etc.

You're right there was a tier break between Hunter/Woods and Hopkins/Patterson. That tier difference was influenced by expert consensus as well as lack of consistency in college production, team landing spot, the root psychological difference between rd1 and rd2, flashiness of highlights, etc. etc. He was also side by side with Eifert, Michael, and Woods and well above EJ Manuel who all should have similar NFL draft value.

Did Hunter get knocked, or did Allen get bumped for a variety of reasons (pre-draft ranking, SD)? Did Hunter get knocked, or did Hopkins get bumped for a variety of reasons (bowl game domination vs. LSU, Houston)?

 

[Concept Coop]

Did Hunter get knocked, or did Allen get bumped for a variety of reasons (pre-draft ranking, SD)? Did Hunter get knocked, or did Hopkins get bumped for a variety of reasons (bowl game domination vs. LSU, Houston)?

This is what I meant when I suggested it easy to ID the draftnik model, but not the draft position model. If it were me, players being passed over by the draftnik model would qualify for the draft position model.

That said, we're likely just making noise at this point.

 

[karmarooster]

DeMarco Murray - sell high window now?

On the one hand, he's got a long injury history and there are major questions in the future about the Cowboys and their cap numbers. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he goes back to missing lots of games next year, and never replicates his production again. Julius Jones style.

On the other hand, he turns just 26 next week, and had one of the best YPCs in the league last year. Purely as a runner, I think he might've been in the best form of anyone last year (well maybe McCoy). Had something of an AP look about him last year in terms of running style and intensity.

 

[Concept Coop]

DeMarco Murray - sell high window now?

I'll be looking to sell. He had a very strong 2nd half of the year, but still didn't look as good as his rookie season--the last time he displayed homerun speed. I have the feeling that his wall will come sooner than most, even if he can stay on the field.

With such a weak dynasty RB crop, I don't think he's a bad play at his current ADP. But I won't be paying it, and would cash out for it, where I own him.

If the Cowboys invest in a young backup that I feel good about, I might be more willing to acquire them as a group, rather than Murray by himself. ETA: Just as I won't target Rice alone, but will pay current market value for Rice/Pierce.

 

[Gandalf]

Sell high on Murray. He also tends to get hurt

 

[thriftyrocker]

ETA: Just as I won't target Rice alone, but will pay current market value for Rice/Pierce.

There are some RB situations where owning the committee provides a relatively high guarantee on good production. Seattle does. KC does. DEN does. If DAL drafts a RB in the top 2 or 3 rounds, it does. I don't know if BAL does at this point. That isn't intended as a knock on the two players involved, but there is something broken with the situation. Its possible neither player provides RB1 production any season for the rest of their careers. It's possible that happens even if they both bounce back given its possibly a timeshare on a mediocre offense going forward. Put Rice/Pierce on NEP and yeah I'd buy both as much as possible. But BAL's offense plus the possible long-term timeshare makes it pretty unappealing. I don't know what the price is at this point outside of Rice being 5th round ADP and Pierce being 9th round but the possible double suicide would have me worried a bit. Both players are decent buys at this point, but I think you are gambling on upside instead of hedging and locking in a place on your starting lineup.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

ETA: Just as I won't target Rice alone, but will pay current market value for Rice/Pierce.

There are some RB situations where owning the committee provides a relatively high guarantee on good production. Seattle does. KC does. DEN does. If DAL drafts a RB in the top 2 or 3 rounds, it does. I don't know if BAL does at this point. That isn't intended as a knock on the two players involved, but there is something broken with the situation. Its possible neither player provides RB1 production any season for the rest of their careers. It's possible that happens even if they both bounce back given its possibly a timeshare on a mediocre offense going forward. Put Rice/Pierce on NEP and yeah I'd buy both as much as possible. But BAL's offense plus the possible long-term timeshare makes it pretty unappealing. I don't know what the price is at this point outside of Rice being 5th round ADP and Pierce being 9th round but the possible double suicide would have me worried a bit. Both players are decent buys at this point, but I think you are gambling on upside instead of hedging and locking in a place on your starting lineup.

I can see this side, but disagree for two main reasons: Ozzie and Harbaugh. Out of all NFL teams, the Ravens are pretty high up there for me on the "trust 'em to right the ship quickly" list. Plus Kubiak is pretty good at getting big numbers out of his RBs. I'm a buyer on both Rice and Pierce at 5th / 9th round prices, together preferably but seperately if need be.

 

[Concept Coop]

There are some RB situations where owning the committee provides a relatively high guarantee on good production. Seattle does. KC does. DEN does. If DAL drafts a RB in the top 2 or 3 rounds, it does. I don't know if BAL does at this point. That isn't intended as a knock on the two players involved, but there is something broken with the situation. Its possible neither player provides RB1 production any season for the rest of their careers. It's possible that happens even if they both bounce back given its possibly a timeshare on a mediocre offense going forward. Put Rice/Pierce on NEP and yeah I'd buy both as much as possible. But BAL's offense plus the possible long-term timeshare makes it pretty unappealing. I don't know what the price is at this point outside of Rice being 5th round ADP and Pierce being 9th round but the possible double suicide would have me worried a bit. Both players are decent buys at this point, but I think you are gambling on upside instead of hedging and locking in a place on your starting lineup.

I think the concerns are vailid, but accurately accounted for in the purchase price. At least. 5th/9th is a fair price to pay for RB2 production for 3-4 years, and I think that's the baseline for the pair. Obviously, above and beyond that, there is also upside--in potential roster changes and improved production.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Does anyone buy the thought that Andre Ellington could get a lot more work in 2014? This seems a lot like the CJ Spiller situation: a diminutive, talented player that will likely share the load enough to never be labled as a feature back.

 

[Concept Coop]

Does anyone buy the thought that Andre Ellington could get a lot more work in 2014? This seems a lot like the CJ Spiller situation: a diminutive, talented player that will likely share the load enough to never be labled as a feature back.

NFL teams have a lot of incentive to keep their game breakers fresh and let another back help absorb the dirty work. I expect him to continue sharing carries moving forward, personally. I do think he's efficient enough to produce on limited carries, however.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Does anyone buy the thought that Andre Ellington could get a lot more work in 2014? This seems a lot like the CJ Spiller situation: a diminutive, talented player that will likely share the load enough to never be labled as a feature back.

NFL teams have a lot of incentive to keep their game breakers fresh and let another back help absorb the dirty work. I expect him to continue sharing carries moving forward, personally. I do think he's efficient enough to produce on limited carries, however.

Agree with this. IMO he's a 1000 - 1200 YFS, 4-6 TD guy in all likelihood. There are people out there that think he's a likely future stud -- find those people and unload him for a tidy return on your initial cheap investment.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Does anyone buy the thought that Andre Ellington could get a lot more work in 2014? This seems a lot like the CJ Spiller situation: a diminutive, talented player that will likely share the load enough to never be labled as a feature back.

NFL teams have a lot of incentive to keep their game breakers fresh and let another back help absorb the dirty work. I expect him to continue sharing carries moving forward, personally. I do think he's efficient enough to produce on limited carries, however.

Agree with this. IMO he's a 1000 - 1200 YFS, 4-6 TD guy in all likelihood. There are people out there that think he's a likely future stud -- find those people and unload him for a tidy return on your initial cheap investment.

I don't disagree. You could make the argument he'd be more effective over the course of the season as the lead RB in a 60%/40% time share.

 

[Louche]

Does anyone buy the thought that Andre Ellington could get a lot more work in 2014? This seems a lot like the CJ Spiller situation: a diminutive, talented player that will likely share the load enough to never be labled as a feature back.

NFL teams have a lot of incentive to keep their game breakers fresh and let another back help absorb the dirty work. I expect him to continue sharing carries moving forward, personally. I do think he's efficient enough to produce on limited carries, however.

Agree with this. IMO he's a 1000 - 1200 YFS, 4-6 TD guy in all likelihood. There are people out there that think he's a likely future stud -- find those people and unload him for a tidy return on your initial cheap investment.

I don't disagree. You could make the argument he'd be more effective over the course of the season as the lead RB in a 60%/40% time share.

Yes! As a Gio owner in dynasty I was actually quite pleased to see the Bengals use BJGE as a battering ram and let Gio get the touches as soon as they passed their own 40 yard line. It's not the quantity of touches that matters but the quality of them - especially when accounting for the risk of injury.

 

[Donsmith753]

Marcus Lattimore, what are people doing with him?

 

[karmarooster]

Marcus Lattimore, what are people doing with him?

Holding. What else is there to do?

 

[renesauz]

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have Allen inside my top ten WRs period

 

[Andrew74]

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have Allen inside my top ten WRs period

Eddie Royal and Mike Williams (TB) had great rookie seasons. I don't think it's craziness to think some rookies might be preferred over a guy with a 1 yr track record.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have Allen inside my top ten WRs period

Eddie Royal and Mike Williams (TB) had great rookie seasons. I don't think it's craziness to think some rookies might be preferred over a guy with a 1 yr track record.

Top rookie wide receiver seasons since 2000:

Player Year Rec. Rec. Yards TDs

Anquan Boldin 2003 101 1377 8

Michael Clayton 2004 80 1193 7

A.J. Green 2011 65 1057 7

Marques Colston 2006 70 1038 8

Dwayne Bowe 2007 70 995 5

Eddie Royal 2008 91 980 5

Andre Johnson 2003 66 976 4

Mike Williams 2010 65 964 11

Julio Jones 2011 54 959 8

Allen went 71 for 1046 and 8 TDs while barely playing the first three games. Not totally fair, but a 16 game comparison is 87 receptions, 1287 yards and 10 TDs which is close to as good as Boldin's rookie year. Either way, he is right in the middle of that list even with 13 games of stats. Allen is 6' 2", 216 and was a 5 star college recruit drafted in the 3rd round due to concerns over his 40 time. His draft position was affected by him not being fully recovered from his PCL injury the prior season. You mention Royal (all 5' 10", 185 slot WR of him) and Mike Williams, who did get a big contract, so he fooled the Bucs as well. Don't forget Michael Clayton, who sucked after his rookie year. Now I can mention Julio, Andre, AJ Green, D Bowe, Colston, and Boldin, all studs with long careers (cross fingers on Julio). If you want to go fishing for rookie WRs where the 1st round bust rate is 50% of even being anything, I will happily take a 60-70% chance of getting a bonafide WR1 for 10 seasons. It is all risk to do go the other direction, but it is anyone's right to do it.

 

[Brewtown]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

Hunter being drafted lower in dynasty leagues had to do with his NFL situation with the Tennessee Titans and more than likely his injury history.

It is not as simple as you are making things...

Drawing simple conclusions doesn't necessarily work in life...

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

Hunter being drafted lower in dynasty leagues had to do with his NFL situation with the Tennessee Titans and more than likely his injury history.

It is not as simple as you are making things...

Drawing simple conclusions doesn't necessarily work in life...

For me, I downgraded Hunter and still do based on the lack of historical comps of elite WRs that are 6' 4", 196 lbs. AJ Green is closest, at 6' 4", 207, but no other modern elite wide receiver has been that skinny, or am I missing someone? Hunter looks like he has a thin body frame and is unlikely to bulk up while retaining speed IMO.

 

[Brewtown]

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have Allen inside my top ten WRs period

Eddie Royal and Mike Williams (TB) had great rookie seasons. I don't think it's craziness to think some rookies might be preferred over a guy with a 1 yr track record.

Top rookie wide receiver seasons since 2000:

Player Year Rec. Rec. Yards TDs

Anquan Boldin 2003 101 1377 8

Michael Clayton 2004 80 1193 7

A.J. Green 2011 65 1057 7

Marques Colston 2006 70 1038 8

Dwayne Bowe 2007 70 995 5

Eddie Royal 2008 91 980 5

Andre Johnson 2003 66 976 4

Mike Williams 2010 65 964 11

Julio Jones 2011 54 959 8

Allen went 71 for 1046 and 8 TDs while barely playing the first three games. Not totally fair, but a 16 game comparison is 87 receptions, 1287 yards and 10 TDs which is close to as good as Boldin's rookie year. Either way, he is right in the middle of that list even with 13 games of stats. Allen is 6' 2", 216 and was a 5 star college recruit drafted in the 3rd round due to concerns over his 40 time. His draft position was affected by him not being fully recovered from his PCL injury the prior season. You mention Royal (all 5' 10", 185 slot WR of him) and Mike Williams, who did get a big contract, so he fooled the Bucs as well. Don't forget Michael Clayton, who sucked after his rookie year. Now I can mention Julio, Andre, AJ Green, D Bowe, Colston, and Boldin, all studs with long careers (cross fingers on Julio). If you want to go fishing for rookie WRs where the 1st round bust rate is 50% of even being anything, I will happily take a 60-70% chance of getting a bonafide WR1 for 10 seasons. It is all risk to do go the other direction, but it is anyone's right to do it.

Interesting stats and point that you make. I understand your argument, but I just think that the three WRs that I put in front of him are simply going to be better.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

Hunter being drafted lower in dynasty leagues had to do with his NFL situation with the Tennessee Titans and more than likely his injury history.

It is not as simple as you are making things...

Drawing simple conclusions doesn't necessarily work in life...

For me, I downgraded Hunter and still do based on the lack of historical comps of elite WRs that are 6' 4", 196 lbs. AJ Green is closest, at 6' 4", 207, but no other modern elite wide receiver has been that skinny, or am I missing someone? Hunter looks like he has a thin body frame and is unlikely to bulk up while retaining speed IMO.

Desean and Marvin were both twigs coming into the league, but both of them had better NCAA resumes.

In terms of a guy who made some noise in the pros with a build like Hunter's there's only Chris Henry. Though Henry was a holy terror at WVU -- miles better than Hunter at Tennessee.

 

[Brewtown]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

Hunter being drafted lower in dynasty leagues had to do with his NFL situation with the Tennessee Titans and more than likely his injury history.It is not as simple as you are making things...Drawing simple conclusions doesn't necessarily work in life...

For me, I downgraded Hunter and still do based on the lack of historical comps of elite WRs that are 6' 4", 196 lbs. AJ Green is closest, at 6' 4", 207, but no other modern elite wide receiver has been that skinny, or am I missing someone? Hunter looks like he has a thin body frame and is unlikely to bulk up while retaining speed IMO.

Desean and Marvin were both twigs coming into the league, but both of them had better NCAA resumes.In terms of a guy who made some noise in the pros with a build like Hunter's there's only Chris Henry. Though Henry was a holy terror at WVU -- miles better than Hunter at Tennessee.

They are actually not that far from each other stats wise from their college days (considering Hunters ACL injury).

Henry's stats do not reflect a Holy Terror....

Receiving Rushing Scrimmage

Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD

*2003 West Virginia Big East WR 12 41 1006 24.5. 10 41 1006 24.5 10

*2004 West Virginia Big East WR 11 52 872 16.8 12 1 2 2.0 0 53 874 16.5 12

Career West Virginia 93 187820.2 22 1 2 2.0 0 94 1880 20.0 22

 

[ZWK]

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have Allen inside my top ten WRs period

Eddie Royal and Mike Williams (TB) had great rookie seasons. I don't think it's craziness to think some rookies might be preferred over a guy with a 1 yr track record.

Top rookie wide receiver seasons since 2000:

Player Year Rec. Rec. Yards TDs

Anquan Boldin 2003 101 1377 8

Michael Clayton 2004 80 1193 7

A.J. Green 2011 65 1057 7

Marques Colston 2006 70 1038 8

Dwayne Bowe 2007 70 995 5

Eddie Royal 2008 91 980 5

Andre Johnson 2003 66 976 4

Mike Williams 2010 65 964 11

Julio Jones 2011 54 959 8

Allen went 71 for 1046 and 8 TDs while barely playing the first three games. Not totally fair, but a 16 game comparison is 87 receptions, 1287 yards and 10 TDs which is close to as good as Boldin's rookie year. Either way, he is right in the middle of that list even with 13 games of stats. Allen is 6' 2", 216 and was a 5 star college recruit drafted in the 3rd round due to concerns over his 40 time. His draft position was affected by him not being fully recovered from his PCL injury the prior season. You mention Royal (all 5' 10", 185 slot WR of him) and Mike Williams, who did get a big contract, so he fooled the Bucs as well. Don't forget Michael Clayton, who sucked after his rookie year. Now I can mention Julio, Andre, AJ Green, D Bowe, Colston, and Boldin, all studs with long careers (cross fingers on Julio). If you want to go fishing for rookie WRs where the 1st round bust rate is 50% of even being anything, I will happily take a 60-70% chance of getting a bonafide WR1 for 10 seasons. It is all risk to do go the other direction, but it is anyone's right to do it.

This is a bit of nitpick, but Allen was only off the field for about a game and a half at the start of the season. He didn't play week 1, played 54% of the snaps week 2, and 83% week 3 (according to PFF). He just didn't get the ball much when he was in there.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Dynasty rookie drafts did not reflect where Hunter was drafted...

Right. In rookie drafts, Hunter was going much lower than his draft position suggested he should be. The owners who were most likely to buck that trend were the owners who anchored the most to draft position. Therefore, if Hunter hits, he stands as a win for those who advocate for anchoring more to draft position.

Hunter being drafted lower in dynasty leagues had to do with his NFL situation with the Tennessee Titans and more than likely his injury history.It is not as simple as you are making things...Drawing simple conclusions doesn't necessarily work in life...

For me, I downgraded Hunter and still do based on the lack of historical comps of elite WRs that are 6' 4", 196 lbs. AJ Green is closest, at 6' 4", 207, but no other modern elite wide receiver has been that skinny, or am I missing someone? Hunter looks like he has a thin body frame and is unlikely to bulk up while retaining speed IMO.

Desean and Marvin were both twigs coming into the league, but both of them had better NCAA resumes.In terms of a guy who made some noise in the pros with a build like Hunter's there's only Chris Henry. Though Henry was a holy terror at WVU -- miles better than Hunter at Tennessee.

They are actually not that far from each other stats wise from their college days (considering Hunters ACL injury).

Henry's stats do not reflect a Holy Terror....

Receiving Rushing Scrimmage

Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD

*2003 West Virginia Big East WR 12 41 1006 24.5. 10 41 1006 24.5 10

*2004 West Virginia Big East WR 11 52 872 16.8 12 1 2 2.0 0 53 874 16.5 12

Career West Virginia 93 187820.2 22 1 2 2.0 0 94 1880 20.0 22

Comparing their last two seasons Henry had 500+ more yards and 11 more TDs on three more catches.