The discussion is different for fantasy football and real football. It looks like Brees is roughly #8 for fantasy QBs so far this year. Considering where his average draft position / auction value was, that's really bad considering the costs of QBs who have put up equivalent fantasy production.
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Drew Brees Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tjnc09
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He compared it to 2009 and said his pass attempts are down to that level, which isn't even close. He's on pace for almost 200 more attempts than 2009.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
True, I'm trying to figure out why that is and if Brees value for the remaining year is QB 8 or lower. Andrew Luck is uber stud fantasy QB #1 so far, but all his stats mirror Brees.....except TDs. People aren't questioning if Luck is elite talent, but 5 games in some claim Brees no longer is. The real question for me is are the lack of TDs a statistical aberration since his attempts and yards are high, or is it something else?
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
His volume #s are fine but his yds/attempt and the like are much more problematic. Also, maybe if he was throwing the ball downfield well, there would be fewer rushing TDs, which are the result of a dink and dunk offense. Other than his TD to Josh Hill which was mostly YAC, his longest TD is 15 yards.
Panic up in here.
Saints 2013 weeks 1-5, 2111yards of offense, 14tds
Saints 2014 weeks 1-5 2223yards of offense, 16tds
The offense isnt sputtering, the running game has just been unusually productive. Theyre at 5.3 yards/carry, which is both excellent and not likely to sustain. 5 of those 7 rushing TDs came inside the 5 yard line... the Saints LOVE the play-action inside the 5.
The team itself is sucking because the defense blows... but in the long run thats a good thing. You cant keep running when youre losing.
Saints 2013 weeks 1-5, 2111yards of offense, 14tds
Saints 2014 weeks 1-5 2223yards of offense, 16tds
The offense isnt sputtering, the running game has just been unusually productive. Theyre at 5.3 yards/carry, which is both excellent and not likely to sustain. 5 of those 7 rushing TDs came inside the 5 yard line... the Saints LOVE the play-action inside the 5.
The team itself is sucking because the defense blows... but in the long run thats a good thing. You cant keep running when youre losing.
And for the record, Brees's numbers are still better than Rodgers and Staffords. If anything this is a good time to buy low. I'll put my faith in Brees long ball (and his speedy receivers) bouncing back after a little rest in the bye rather than in Matty Ryan or Phil Rivers or Jay Cutler not imploding.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Discussed in other Brees threads. There's been no vertical component in the offense so far & Brees has made so baffling decisions when under pressure. (where's he's flat refused to take a sack or just throw it away)
Still a mid QB1 overall. I do think it's worth looking at other QB options when he goes on the road.
Still a mid QB1 overall. I do think it's worth looking at other QB options when he goes on the road.
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Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
I have Bridgewater as a backup, so i don't really have a choice re Brees, but I could see someone who drafted Wilson, Cutler, or maybe even Flacco as a Brees backup. I would easily play either of those guys over Brees, on the road in what appears to be a terrible matchup.
Gopher State
Footballguy
But Brady doesn't have a pounder of a running back. NO actually has running backs that can run. I think the Saints lean on the running game without jimmy
Pots
Footballguy
Pots
Footballguy
Brees hasn't done bad, he just hasn't done great like the QB#2 he's been projected at. He still gets 280/2 on a consistent basis this season, but he's had more turnovers and hasn't had a huge game yet. I think he continues that trend this week and you can collect your 18-20 points and he'll have much bigger games ahead of him against softer defenses.
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I agree with this. I'm thinking he comes out with 250 and a couple TDs against the Lions (I hope), which on the road against that defense would be a lot better than it looks. Get back to work against worse defenses, especially at home to have a big second half of the season. The problem with trying to play matchups and sit Brees is that the guys in question aspire to Brees's average game. So you end up betting that guys like Palmer or Carr are goiing to have monster games, because just a really good game for those guys is a couple tds. Its just a perception issue.
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That's what scares me, I drafted him to he the #2 QB and he has disappointed to thi point, he's not doing bad it's just he's not putting up Drew Brees like numbers.
The only other option I have, like a post above said, is Brian Hoyer against the Jags.
need2know
Footballguy
Its a horrible matchup for ryan. I got ryan in one league and am playing eli over him. Brees would be an easy choice over ryan for me
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Just my opinion, but no way do I start Hoyer over Brees. I just think that Brees has a much higher floor (this week, and in general). It's not that unlikely that Jacksonville actually plays well enough to beat CLE, first of all. If that happens, it could be 13-10, or 31-28. Either way, there's a good chance CLE will have more success running than they will throwing.
Same thing could happen in the DET-NOS game, I suppose (could be high- or low-scoring), but I don't think the Saints will have a ton of luck running against the Lions. Brees will have to throw, and without Graham, I think he'll be looking to Cooks, Colston, and Thomas often. I think all three of those guys will see 8-10 targets, and with at least 5-6 catches.
I could understand benching Brees for another solid QB (Cutler, Wilson, or maybe even Romo/Flacco), but as good as Hoyer has played, he's not in that category. That doesn't mean Hoyer won't outscore Brees this week. I just think Brees is the much safer bet. I made the mistake of benching Brady a couple of weeks ago for Stanton (when ARI was playing DEN). Brady was sucking (and dealing with a supposed injury), and I figured the Cardinals would have to play from behind (and throw) against the Broncos. Stanton didn't even last a half. Obviously, the same thing could have happened to Brady, or any QB, for that matter. But, the lesson I learned (or was reminded of, anyway) is that it's silly to overthink things sometimes, and I should have stuck with the mantra of "always start your studs."
I think that applies in this case, unless (like I said), you have another similar option. Hoyer isn't a similar option. He's yet to exceed 300 yards this year, and has thrown for more than one score just once. He's also not a threat to run (he's rushed for less than 10 yards all year). Meanwhile, Brees has failed to throw for multiple scores just once, and is averaging well over 300 yards passing per game. In other words, his average passing game (in terms of yards) is 30+ yards higher than Hoyer's BEST game. And, Brees' worst game, in terms of scores, is just slightly worse than Hoyer's average game.
Same thing could happen in the DET-NOS game, I suppose (could be high- or low-scoring), but I don't think the Saints will have a ton of luck running against the Lions. Brees will have to throw, and without Graham, I think he'll be looking to Cooks, Colston, and Thomas often. I think all three of those guys will see 8-10 targets, and with at least 5-6 catches.
I could understand benching Brees for another solid QB (Cutler, Wilson, or maybe even Romo/Flacco), but as good as Hoyer has played, he's not in that category. That doesn't mean Hoyer won't outscore Brees this week. I just think Brees is the much safer bet. I made the mistake of benching Brady a couple of weeks ago for Stanton (when ARI was playing DEN). Brady was sucking (and dealing with a supposed injury), and I figured the Cardinals would have to play from behind (and throw) against the Broncos. Stanton didn't even last a half. Obviously, the same thing could have happened to Brady, or any QB, for that matter. But, the lesson I learned (or was reminded of, anyway) is that it's silly to overthink things sometimes, and I should have stuck with the mantra of "always start your studs."
I think that applies in this case, unless (like I said), you have another similar option. Hoyer isn't a similar option. He's yet to exceed 300 yards this year, and has thrown for more than one score just once. He's also not a threat to run (he's rushed for less than 10 yards all year). Meanwhile, Brees has failed to throw for multiple scores just once, and is averaging well over 300 yards passing per game. In other words, his average passing game (in terms of yards) is 30+ yards higher than Hoyer's BEST game. And, Brees' worst game, in terms of scores, is just slightly worse than Hoyer's average game.
LargeMouthBass
Footballguy
Not sure why Brees was playing conservative when he got to the redzone but decides to throw an INT up 13 in the next possession. Have some confidence and throw the damn ball in the redzone!!!
need2know
Footballguy
Yeah I have never seen brees or the saints go conservative like that. If they score a td there they win. It's like they just gave up and wanted the fg. It's a shame because he looked pretty good until the last 5 minutes of the game
need2know
Footballguy
Of course the one year I actually have brees on my team he is the definition of mediocre. 5 straight years hes tossing 4 tds a game and and now he's struggling for 2. Wtf
Typically I drop expectations for Thursday games, but Brees seems to have turned it up a little after the bye. And Carolina's defense hasn't been very good this year anyways. I would expect maybe 280+ and 2/3 TDs?
need2know
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
does it really matter how we feel? Nobody's benching him.
Pots
Footballguy
Seriously
293/2
340/2
371/2
342/2
311/3
Pretty easy to predict what he's going to do.
Seriously? Last 5 weeks:
293/2
340/2
371/2
342/2
311/3
Pretty easy to predict what he's going to do.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I realize digging into the numbers is what goes on here, but the main underlying point was that the change is due to offensive philosophy and events on the ground, not Brees' decline as an athlete or quarterback. Last couple games his deep ball has looked just fine, and personally I am extremely encouraged to see Cooks in the deep game now.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Which is nice, because anyone looking at last year's game at Carolina for comparison needs to keep in mind or realize that much of it was played in an absolute monsoon. And of course as stated above Carolina's defensive situation is different as well. Greg Hardy had 3 sacks last year and he gern.
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His passing attempts are way up, and team rushing attempts are way down, from 2009 levels. It's the opposite of what you're arguing.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I agree I misstated the stat on pass attempts (I don't think I realize how low relatively his attempts were in 09). The TDs are down from last year though. The rushing game in terms of total yardage is around 7th now, it was around 6th in 2009, so that is very similar. It's true the rush attempts were greater in 09, but the rushing game is more productive now. The rush attempts per game in 09 were 29.25; the rush attempts / gm in 2013 were 24.43; the rush attempts / game this year is 25.85. Overall I'd say the passing game is more productive this year over last in almost all ways, except TDs. My main point was not about the attempt numbers but about his health and capabilities being fine. His deep ball looked a little rough there for a bit but it looks just great now. And it's just a general observation, the Saints seem to have emphasized the run more and as stated above the effectiveness has shown up in the red zone; they are not running it a lot there compared to the rest of the league but they have 9 TDs rushing already last year as opposed to 10 all of last year. Another example of that is Jimmy Graham who had 16 TDs last year but only has 4 this year.His passing attempts are way up, and team rushing attempts are way down, from 2009 levels. It's the opposite of what you're arguing.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Brees is really costing the Saints this year some wins. Surprising to see his decision making at times this year.
McGarnicle
Footballguy
fixed
az_prof
Footballguy
In my league, Brees is the 5th rated QB with 23.6/ppg. I think the decline of Colston is hurting him because Colston was always someone he could rely upon. However, the season isn't over and he is trending up--over the past four weeks he has had more than 24 ppg. His upcoming schedule is VERY favorable--he doesn't play one top 16 pass defense and two of the next three are at home. His playoff schedule is awesome too. I predict that by the end of the year he will be the top 3 or 4 rated Qb.
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