bengalbuck
Footballguy
As someone relatively new to dynasty, one of the things I am struggling with a bit is how much to discount future returns (expected production in 2012 and beyond) vs. more immediate future returns (expected production in 2011).
Let me give an example and I'll ask people to try to put it in numerical terms:
-Assume just for the sake of this argument that junior Alabama RB Trent Richardson is exactly as talented as future Saint RB Mark Ingram and that he will definitely declare for the 2012 draft.
-Assume that in my ranking system Mark Ingram is a 90.
-Assume that if Trent Richardson was one year older and was just drafted by the Saints, he would be a 90 also.
With those assumptions, what numerical value would you put on Richardson to take into account that 1. you get no production from him in 2011 and 2. by the nature of things, his future production is a bit less certain than Ingram's because you don't know who will draft him, if he'll get injured in college, etc.?
Would Richardson be an 80? A 70?
Or to put it a different way, if you owned Ingram and someone offered you Richardson plus a 2011 draft pick, what pick what it have to be for you to pull the trigger on the trade? (i.e. Richardson + 1.09 for Ingram)
Let me give an example and I'll ask people to try to put it in numerical terms:
-Assume just for the sake of this argument that junior Alabama RB Trent Richardson is exactly as talented as future Saint RB Mark Ingram and that he will definitely declare for the 2012 draft.
-Assume that in my ranking system Mark Ingram is a 90.
-Assume that if Trent Richardson was one year older and was just drafted by the Saints, he would be a 90 also.
With those assumptions, what numerical value would you put on Richardson to take into account that 1. you get no production from him in 2011 and 2. by the nature of things, his future production is a bit less certain than Ingram's because you don't know who will draft him, if he'll get injured in college, etc.?
Would Richardson be an 80? A 70?
Or to put it a different way, if you owned Ingram and someone offered you Richardson plus a 2011 draft pick, what pick what it have to be for you to pull the trigger on the trade? (i.e. Richardson + 1.09 for Ingram)