NYG DL are projected to scored 31.8 points combined. Looking at FP scored/allowed they’ve scored an average of 20.3. SF has allowed -3.6 for a differential of 16.7.
The DL points/scored allowed sheets are (unfortunately) filled with confounding factors, especially early in the season when there are small sample sizes. Of the five teams SF has faced, two are 3-4 fronts. That generally depresses fantasy scoring overall and there are fewer defensive linemen to tally. However, your point that John may be over-projecting the NYG defensive linemen is well made.
Very few defensive linemen (3-4 or 4-3) have been successful against them.
I think it's reasonable to project them to have above-average tackle stats on the road against this San Francisco offense. It looks like Tuck and JPP are given the benefit of about an extra tackle each from their yearly personal averages. Of the top three defensive ends, John has only projected them for 1.5 sacks total, which also isn't too far out of line for an OL that's allowed 2.5 per game thus far.
When you compare each individual NYG DL stat lines thus far to what could be expected in this week's game, the strikingly optimistic differential is a little easier to buy.
The larger question, of course, is how useful one set of data is versus another. Frankly, I'm not sure how to answer that question. My bias is to consider the historical stat lines (both DL and opposing OL) in the context of their play on the field and this particular week's expectation. The FP scored/allowed plays some role in that, but a small role.
To complete the exercise in this case (hopefully this stays on point as I ramble through the thought process)...
**The Niners allow an above-average number of tackle opportunities and have been running just over 50% of the time (below average). The Niners allow 2.5 sacks a game, which is slightly above average and possibly underestimates the strength of their pass blocking given the shutout they pitched against a terrible NYJ group last week.
**The most attractive prior DL comps (Mario Williams, Jared Allen, Brian Robison, Mark Anderson, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch) have not had great success. How much of that is due to their own inconsistency versus the strength of the SF offensive line is something of an open question.
Jason Pierre-Paul is projected 3-1, 0.5 sacks.
He's not had a three solo (or better) week since W2. He has a long history of 3+ solo weeks over the past 20+ weeks, however. I think there's a very reasonable argument that three solos and 0.5 sacks is a very reasonable baseline for JPP, regardless of matchup. Recent SF / JPP history suggests 2-0-0 is very possible, past history and a different argument looking at the same numbers might make a 4-1-1 line look reasonable.
Justin Tuck is projected 4-1, 0.5 sacks.
That looks optimistic on the surface for lots of reasons. But Tuck's tackle numbers have been more consistent in the past two weeks and he's been a slightly more effective pass rusher so I can see where John's optimism can be argued. But it's still a little high for me.
