Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor are Busts! (1 Viewer)

[rabidfireweasel]

I am not trying to be a jerk, but you will probaly be sorely disappointed if you are hoping to find Martin and Taylor both available in rounds 3/4 in most 12 team leagues this year. It can happen, but I don't think that you can count on it.

 

[The Z Machine]

I am not trying to be a jerk, but you will probaly be sorely disappointed if you are hoping to find Martin and Taylor both available in rounds 3/4 in most 12 team leagues this year. It can happen, but I don't think that you can count on it.

Taylor will be gone in the 2nd in 90%, and Martin will be gone in the 2nd in about 40-50% msot likely. Martin won't last beyond the midpoint of Rd. 3 in a 12 teamer most likely. Someone will have taken a WR in teh first two and be looking to pick up a 2RB for their team. They will grab Martin there. At least I would.

 

[MrJimiT]

WTF kind of leagues let these guys slip so far? This is not how most leagues draft as far as I've seen.

Cool. The resident expert in how every 10 team redraft league SHOULD draft!I apologize for the misinfo. Our league adapted a 2 QB start system this season and in turn inflated the QB value. But, I still thought that Taylor & Martin went lower in my draft than I had anticipated. I wasn't attempting to place an ADP on them, just the apparent value loss in the eyes of my league mates.

 

[shadyridr]

Lets look at my team:S. Alexander (RB1) 1st round pickFred Taylor (RB2) 4th round pick (no way I let the other owner get him this late)Curtis Martin (RB3) 3rd round (because he has less injury risk I took him before Freddie, bust Freddie has more upside after week #5)M. Morris (RB4)J. Fargus (RB5) Got him back as part of the P.Price trade)Marvin Harrison (WR1) 2nd round pickPeerless Price (WR2) Traded Chrebet and S. Mack for him after draft the same day everyone was paniced about Vick)Jerry Porter (WR3) Rod Gardner (WR4)A. Lellie (WR 5)Hasselbeck (QB1) 7th roundT. Green (QB2) 8th roundT. Heap (TE1) 5th roundI

All I have to say is WOW

 

[The Z Machine]

Cool. The resident expert in how every 10 team redraft league SHOULD draft!

I wasn't claiming to be an expert on how leagues should draft, but rather that soemthing seemed amiss with where they went. The 2 QB thing explains it as it puts a real premium on the QB position vis-a-vis the relative values of the other positions. I'm sorry if I came off as offensive.

 

[jcjets]

If your stating that you shouldn't pair Martin with Taylor, then I agree with you as I wouldn't pair anyone with taylor The whole reason drafting FF is fun is becasue everyone has their own opinion on what player will have a better year than the other. I'm not in love with Martin as a FF player, but I do not like Taylor. Give me players that play without an injury history or ones that play through them. Also I want a track record for players, no one hit wonders on my squad. Heck I'm no expert but I like a track record, I passed on Holmes last year for this, but for every Holmes there is an A.Thomas.Draft the players you expect to do well, not who others expect to do well.If I'm picking a RB I want a OL that has played together and has the same OC and head coach.

 

[Jethro QW]

One man's opinion based on speculation regarding Martin. Taylor should be a non draft always due to health concerns. The Martin comments are baseless. He has played 124 of a possible 128 games in his career. Last year, he hurt his ankle in game 1 before halftime, but refused to sit. Any other back would've missed big time. End of season he finished 21-127, 26-106 & 18-83. Martin's time is dictated by game conditions. In games that are clearly decided, he will yield to Jordan, other than that he is the MAN. Jordan got 84 carries last year. 7 came week 1 when Martin got hurt. 12 came week 4 when Jets lost 28-3. 13 came week 8 in Jet 44-13 win. 11 came week 10 in Jet 31-14 win. 13 came week 11 in Jet 31-13 win. That's 56 blowout/injury carries out of 84 total. Martin is not a gamebreaker back. He wont go 70 yards for a score. But his YPC should be around 4-4.2, good for a total of around 1200 yards based on 300 carries (not a large figure). Throw in 40-50 catches and about 7-10 total scores and you have value. I have not let Martin get by the 3rd round in any draft. Jet homers know Pennington is a better qb than Vinny, but Vinny has better arm strength and throws a better deep ball. Conway can have similar stats to Coles (health is a concern). Replacing RG Thomas will be as easy as replacing LG Jenkins & RT Young, as the Jets did in '02. Its very easy to predict a players demise at age 30, but jeez.

 

[deadzone]

Lets look at my team:S. Alexander (RB1) 1st round pickFred Taylor (RB2) 4th round pick (no way I let the other owner get him this late)Curtis Martin (RB3) 3rd round (because he has less injury risk I took him before Freddie, bust Freddie has more upside after week #5)M. Morris (RB4)J. Fargus (RB5) Got him back as part of the P.Price trade)Marvin Harrison (WR1) 2nd round pickPeerless Price (WR2) Traded Chrebet and S. Mack for him after draft the same day everyone was paniced about Vick)Jerry Porter (WR3) Rod Gardner (WR4)A. Lellie (WR 5)Hasselbeck (QB1) 7th roundT. Green (QB2) 8th roundT. Heap (TE1) 5th roundI

All I have to say is WOW

Thanks....I hope MoP has my trophy on order right now. (by saying that, of course I am now cursed to have major injuries and go 3-10).

 

[Workhorse]

Jet homers know Pennington is a better qb than Vinny, but Vinny has better arm strength and throws a better deep ball. Conway can have similar stats to Coles (health is a concern).

Funny, most Jet homers I know are in a complete tizzy over having a 40 year old, interception-prone, NON West Coast offense QB running the ship this season. Vinnie has never been a very strong quick decision-maker, a MUST for the WCO. Never mind that Conway ain't much of a deep threat. If you think that Conway will put up numbers anywhere close to Coles did last season, I think you're dreaming. Especially now that every other team in their division has made major defensive upgrades.

 

[Jethro QW]

Funny, most Jet homers I know are in a complete tizzy over having a 40 year old, interception-prone, NON West Coast offense QB running the ship this season. Vinnie has never been a very strong quick decision-maker, a MUST for the WCO. Never mind that Conway ain't much of a deep threat. If you think that Conway will put up numbers anywhere close to Coles did last season, I think you're dreaming. Especially now that every other team in their division has made major defensive upgrades.

Oh, my season is over, I know that. But Vinny can be competant. I am not scared about N.E., Buff, Wash., Dallas, Houston, Indy, Jax, Pitt games. That's 10 games. Miami comes week 17, which is a non factor roto wise. Coles scored 5x last year and has 13 in his career I believe. I think Conway will score 5x. In real life, I hate Vinny, but roto wise, I still think he can be decent given the right spot.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

My team in the same league as DeadzoneQB1 VickQB2 Kerry CollinsQB3 Kelly HolcombRB1 PortisRB2 S.DavisRB3 O.SmithRB4 K.BarlowRB5 G.HearstWR1 P.BurressWR2 A.ToomerWR3 J.RiceWR4 T.PinkstonWR5 B.FinneranWR6 D'wayne BatesTE1 M.PollardTE2 D.ClarkDef/ST Miami and St. LouisK Vinatieri and J.BrownI don't think he will blow me out that bad

 

[Workhorse]

But Vinny can be competant. I am not scared about N.E

Week 2.Pats 44, Jets 7.Vinny's numbers: 15 for 23, 150 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble

 

[WadeGarrett22]

I'm amazed at the lengths that people go to on this board to try to convince others NOT to take guys, most notably Freddy Taylor. It's almost as if these people want to take Taylor, but are afraid of the risk, and would feel better if no one else decided to take the risk on him. I traded for Taylor as my #2 behind Portis, and have Dunn behind him. I couldn't be happier about it. Everyone talks about Taylor as this huge injury risk, and yes he's had his share. I would classify his groin pull as a 'freak' injury. Outside of that, he's no more injury prone than Marshall, who is the darling of this board. The fact that he's come out publicly and said that he could've played in games that he didn't early in his career is positive to me. A lot of those instances he was asked to sit by coaches, and a couple he sat to be ready for the playoffs, which he regrets now. Del Rio is no idiot, and knows how valuable Freddy is. Both have said that he would have played if it was the regular season. Again, people's feelings on Taylor are well known and don't need to be brought up again. If you don't like him, don't take him. It's not like the people that have him or will take him DON'T know about his history and his situation. Risk is a huge part of winning and I'll gladly take his risk/reward.

Well said. I'll have no problem taking Taylor in my draft.

 

[Insane Jets Fan]

MOP, I can't speak for Taylor, because I don't have the best exposure to what the hell is going on in JAX. I will say this though - it seems like this will be a full-fledged rebuilding year for them.But I can speak for Martin. Here's what I have to offer:1. His preseason performance - DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT take any weight based on what he has done so far this preseason. Lamont Jordan will get mop up carries and the occasional goal line carry, but is NOT a threat for an increased role (barring major injury). Marin has EXACTLY 14 carries so far this preseason, and Herm Edwards likes it very much that way. WFAN interviewed Herm on 8/19, and asked him something along the lines of: "Should we expect to see more of Lamont Jordan this year?" and his response was something along the lines of "While we have no doubt Lamont would excel if we needed him to, Curtis is still our guy". Just like Edge hates to play in preseason, and barely does, the Jets are resting Martin in their meaningless games. MARTIN WILL GET 300+ CARRIES and 50+ CATCHES THIS YEAR BARRING MAJOR INJURY. Last year proved once and for all that he could play through pain, and his record speaks for itself. HOWEVER, with ANY 29+ year old back, I would recommend taking their back-up as insurance, ESPECIALLY Jordan, because he could start for half the teams in the league.2. The Jets ran the least amount of plays in the league last year, mostly because of a porous 3rd down defense. If they get ANY improvement in this area, they will have more chances to handle the ball. The Jets defense, while not elite, will be better than average. Everybody is together in the same system for a year, unlike last year when they had 6 new starters. There are 2 this year - Robertson and McGraw (who played extensively last year). And a decent defense will keep them in the game and they will be able to run the ball all four quarters.3. I am of the small faction that Chad's injury HELPS Martin's fantasy prospects. Is Chad better than Vinny? YES. HOWEVER, Vinny throws a MUCH better deep ball (and both Conway and Moss have the speed to beat people deep). Even with Chad, that was a bigger focus of the Jets O this year. And secondly, if Vinny gets hurt, the Jets are even more screwed than they already are. They need to protect him at all costs, and the best way to do that is to give Curtis the football. Vinny is one of the best BACKUP QB's in football, even if he is 40. Is there a drop-off? YES. But think about the consequences of this for a sec.Just so you don't think I am looking through rose colored glasses, here are three more:4. Everybody makes a big deal over the loss of Coles. While it was certianly not fun as a fan, the addition of Conway and the improvement of Moss should cover Coles' production. The bigger loss was Randy Thomas. He was a great pulling guard, wheras from what I have read Brent Smith (his replacement) is more of a passblocker, and not as athletic. The Jets o-line as a whole is more adept at pass-blocking then run-blocking.5. He IS 30, so if you take him, taking Jordan is a MUST. 6. Although I have researched and found that he did do his traditional conditioning regime in the offseason, I do also know that his ankles weren't back to normal until shortly before training camp.BOTTOM LINE - In a 12 team league, I'd jump all over either of these guys anywhere from the middle of the second round on. ESPECIALLY in 1 pt. per catch leagues - I wouldn't hesitate to take them over Green OR Davis in THOSE. Neither catches anywhere near as many passes as Taylor or Martin, and Davis has an equally talented RB to steal carries from him (IF Foster stays healthy, which is debatable).Let me ask you this - what is the difference between the situation in NYJ or JAX than Baltimore? Last time I checked BAL's supporting cast was less than thrilling, yet you have JLewis going at least a round earlier than these two....

 

[Horses Mouth]

i took c martin at 3.07 as my third rb - i think that is a good spot to take him if he lasts that long with the way rb's are flying off the board this year

If I was in your position, I would have taken him too. definitely. as a #3 RB he is awesome.

 

[Insane Jets Fan]

BTW, in OMEGA #5 I got him at 2.12 and though I did well for myself - as you can see from my signature. I am not one who normally ends up with Jets on my team either....it's been a few years since I had one, actually.

 

[Greg R]

For the people saying Martin should be a RB3, just who are you putting ahead of him as RB2s?RB1s: LT, Priest, Ricky, Faulk, Portis, Deuce, SA, Edge, Travis, Jamal, Ahman, DillonRB2s: Taylor, Garner, Barber, William Green, Davis, GeorgeSo which 6 out of Stewart, Mack, Zereoue, Barlow, Hambrick, Candiate, A-train, Onterrio Smith, Staley, Dunn, etc, do you guys say are better than Martin this year?

 

[Payne]

My team in the same league as DeadzoneQB1 VickQB2 Kerry CollinsQB3 Kelly HolcombRB1 PortisRB2 S.DavisRB3 O.SmithRB4 K.BarlowRB5 G.HearstWR1 P.BurressWR2 A.ToomerWR3 J.RiceWR4 T.PinkstonWR5 B.FinneranWR6 D'wayne BatesTE1 M.PollardTE2 D.ClarkDef/ST Miami and St. LouisK Vinatieri and J.BrownI don't think he will blow me out that bad

I need to get in one of these leagues.

 

[Payne]

i couldn't agree more....marginal rb #3's at best...both are being drafted way too high (no value) IMO...

You need to be in some of my leagues."Marginal #3 at best"??? You are crazy. Sorry.

 

[biglare66]

Not everyone here strictly plays with Sharks.

The amount of elitism displayed on this board in this preseason is sickening, while the amount of quality info has curbed sharply. Most FFL leagues AREN'T shark infested, and I'd guess that a very small percentage of readers actually play in these so called elite leagues. I'm here to tell you, I've been reading this board for several years now, and I'm proud to be playing in a mixed-skill Yahoo league. Thanks for your insights MOP, great stuff.

 

[tietzjd]

For the people saying Martin should be a RB3, just who are you putting ahead of him as RB2s?RB1s: LT, Priest, Ricky, Faulk, Portis, Deuce, SA, Edge, Travis, Jamal, Ahman, DillonRB2s: Taylor, Garner, Barber, William Green, Davis, GeorgeSo which 6 out of Stewart, Mack, Zereoue, Barlow, Hambrick, Candiate, A-train, Onterrio Smith, Staley, Dunn, etc, do you guys say are better than Martin this year?

In a 10 Man redraft I bet you can get 2 of these backs if you pick 4th or lowerRB1s: LT, Priest, Ricky, Faulk, Portis, Deuce, SA, Edge, Travis, Jamal, Ahman, DillonIn rounds 1 and 2 and in the 3rd round You should get choice of 3 from 5 and lower.RB2s: Taylor, Garner, Barber, William Green, Davis, Martin, George I truly belive the guys drafting 4-8 this year can go RB-RB-RB and find them selfs with 3 of top 19 backs!

 

[Tick]

For the people saying Martin should be a RB3, just who are you putting ahead of him as RB2s?RB1s: LT, Priest, Ricky, Faulk, Portis, Deuce, SA, Edge, Travis, Jamal, Ahman, DillonRB2s: Taylor, Garner, Barber, William Green, Davis, GeorgeSo which 6 out of Stewart, Mack, Zereoue, Barlow, Hambrick, Candiate, A-train, Onterrio Smith, Staley, Dunn, etc, do you guys say are better than Martin this year?

Best post in this thread.MOP, multiple people have asked you whom you'd take before Martin and Taylor. I don't think you've answered.So, what is it? Can I assume that you have them ranked 18th and 19th, behind all the other solid guys listed by GregR and ahead of Stewart/Mack/Dunn/etc?The other big question is, where's your big gap in rankings? For me, it's after the top 19 - I'd draft any of these anywhere in the top three rounds. Anyone below that, I wouldn't draft until the 5th minimum. Most people have a similar gap somewhere - where's yours?I don't have your RB buckets in front of me and I'm too lazy to look for it right now (and I suspect that it's out of date compared to your current opinions anyway). Anyway, I guess my final question is:Where are you willing to draft these guys? What round in a 12 team draft? We all know if they fall to the 7th round, you'll take them. How about the 5th? 4th?

 

[Greg R]

In a 10 Man redraft I bet you can get 2 of these backs if you pick 4th or lower

Or an 8 team for that matter. But for a standard scoring system and league setup with 12 teams and 2 starting RBs per team, they are going to have to come up with 6 RBs to move ahead of Martin to justify him being a RB3.

 

[Jethro QW]

Week 2.Pats 44, Jets 7.Vinny's numbers: 15 for 23, 150 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble

Week 16 Jets 30 - Pats 17. Jets got skunked 1st game. But, at that point of the season, the Jets were awful and the Pats were playing real well too. I am not a Vinny fan, but I truly believe he can get you 225-250 yds and a score or 2 a game.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For the people saying Martin should be a RB3, just who are you putting ahead of him as RB2s?RB1s: LT, Priest, Ricky, Faulk, Portis, Deuce, SA, Edge, Travis, Jamal, Ahman, DillonRB2s: Taylor, Garner, Barber, William Green, Davis, GeorgeSo which 6 out of Stewart, Mack, Zereoue, Barlow, Hambrick, Candiate, A-train, Onterrio Smith, Staley, Dunn, etc, do you guys say are better than Martin this year?

Best post in this thread.MOP, multiple people have asked you whom you'd take before Martin and Taylor. I don't think you've answered.So, what is it? Can I assume that you have them ranked 18th and 19th, behind all the other solid guys listed by GregR and ahead of Stewart/Mack/Dunn/etc?The other big question is, where's your big gap in rankings? For me, it's after the top 19 - I'd draft any of these anywhere in the top three rounds. Anyone below that, I wouldn't draft until the 5th minimum. Most people have a similar gap somewhere - where's yours?I don't have your RB buckets in front of me and I'm too lazy to look for it right now (and I suspect that it's out of date compared to your current opinions anyway). Anyway, I guess my final question is:Where are you willing to draft these guys? What round in a 12 team draft? We all know if they fall to the 7th round, you'll take them. How about the 5th? 4th?

As I wrote in the TIMEOUT post, it is not where do I have him ranked or who I would take ahead of him. There are quite a few. The bigger question or challenge is getting yourself out of a position where you must take them.Get it?

 

[Insane Jets Fan]

Although I disagree with MOP on Martin and Taylor, I don't believe that you need to have 12 RB1's. I have 9 legitmate (IMO) RB1's. PortisLTHolmesRickyFaulkDeuceShaunEdgeHenryAs you can see, I do not consider Ahman, Jamal, or Dillon quality RB1's. In fact, I'd be disappointed with those three guys as RB1's. To me they are good-to-exceptional RB2's. Combine those three guys with the rest of MY RB2's: AhmanJamalDillonTaylorBarberMartinGarner (in 1 pt. per catch leagues only)William GreenDavisI am down on EG, he doesn't make the cut. I'm assuming 1 pt. per catch, so Willie Green and Stephen Davis suffer somewhat, but hang onto #2 status. So I have 9 what-I-consider-legitimate RB2's. Same deal there.SO, if I pick #10-12 in a 12 team league, and those 9 RB1's are off the board, I grumble a little and pick a top-3 WR. Or I pick Ahman, Jamal, or Dillon, and then another RB2 in the 2nd round as an above average RB2. So in effect I would have two top-of-the-line RB2. What I give up at RB1, I gain at RB2 or WR1. In other words, at the end of the draft I say "I wish I coulda done better with my RB1, BUT the differential over my competetitors from my above average WR1 or RB2 helps me make up that difference."Another practical example - I have the #2 Pick in WCOFF and will take Portis or LT or Holmes at that spot. However, by the time my next pick rolls around (#23), I do not expect ANY of MY "legitimate" RB1 OR RB2's to be on the board at that point. So at 23 and 26 I'll probably make my WR1-2 spots stronger than the other teams (Moulds/Horn/Burress?), and roll the dice on a few guys later as my RB2. What I lose at RB2, I make up at WR1 and WR2.SO, in effect I follow MOP's tier concept. However, unlike him, I just base it on the statistical projections I did.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What if Martin runs for a little over 1,000 yds. Has 400 yds receiving and a total of 6 TD.In most leagues that is not going to win you a lot of games. He is a stop gap but he will not be doing anything to put you over the top. It is roughly 11 points a week. Look at it a dfifferent way. Is CuMart an RB2 in a 12 team league....sure. But he might end up being at the bottom or towards the bottom of those RB2. Plus you are assuming that all the RB taken in the draft persorm to your projections and there is no chance in hell that will happen.I want guys that might be RB1 for a lot of teams by years end that I can grab in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th rounds. I am not going to project O.Smith for 1,600 yds and 10 TD. However with all the injuries there and the fact Moe WIlliams is not much more than a goal line back...do you see where I am going. You have Smith projected at 800-1000 yds and 5+ TD. But he might very well outperform that by a lot. Get away from those evil projections and evaluate what you see. Group a few guys in the same tier and average out those projections if you must use them. You should have 6 or 7 guys at the 1,500 yd 10 TD level let's say. Some will fare better, some worse. Than maybe 1,200/8 is your next level and so on and so forth. BTW 1,500/10 is not where I am telling you to start. There are 4 or 5 RB that have a legitimate shot at 2,000/15+. Peace!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Although I disagree with MOP on Martin and Taylor, I don't believe that you need to have 12 RB1's. I have 9 legitmate (IMO) RB1's. PortisLTHolmesRickyFaulkDeuceShaunEdgeHenryAs you can see, I do not consider Ahman, Jamal, or Dillon quality RB1's. In fact, I'd be disappointed with those three guys as RB1's. To me they are good-to-exceptional RB2's. Combine those three guys with the rest of MY RB2's: AhmanJamalDillonTaylorBarberMartinGarner (in 1 pt. per catch leagues only)William GreenDavisI am down on EG, he doesn't make the cut. I'm assuming 1 pt. per catch, so Willie Green and Stephen Davis suffer somewhat, but hang onto #2 status. So I have 9 what-I-consider-legitimate RB2's. Same deal there.SO, if I pick #10-12 in a 12 team league, and those 9 RB1's are off the board, I grumble a little and pick a top-3 WR. Or I pick Ahman, Jamal, or Dillon, and then another RB2 in the 2nd round as an above average RB2. So in effect I would have two top-of-the-line RB2. What I give up at RB1, I gain at RB2 or WR1. In other words, at the end of the draft I say "I wish I coulda done better with my RB1, BUT the differential over my competetitors from my above average WR1 or RB2 helps me make up that difference."Another practical example - I have the #2 Pick in WCOFF and will take Portis or LT or Holmes at that spot. However, by the time my next pick rolls around (#23), I do not expect ANY of MY "legitimate" RB1 OR RB2's to be on the board at that point. So at 23 and 26 I'll probably make my WR1-2 spots stronger than the other teams (Moulds/Horn/Burress?), and roll the dice on a few guys later as my RB2. What I lose at RB2, I make up at WR1 and WR2.SO, in effect I follow MOP's tier concept. However, unlike him, I just base it on the statistical projections I did.

Fantastic!

 

[Workhorse]

Week 2.Pats 44, Jets 7.Vinny's numbers: 15 for 23, 150 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble

Week 16 Jets 30 - Pats 17. Jets got skunked 1st game. But, at that point of the season, the Jets were awful and the Pats were playing real well too. I am not a Vinny fan, but I truly believe he can get you 225-250 yds and a score or 2 a game.

I must have missed Vinny's great performance in the 2nd game.

 

[Maulers]

Hey M.O.P.The Buckeyes are still champs. sorry, just couldnt resist

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hey M.O.P.The Buckeyes are still champs. sorry, just couldnt resist

I have been quiet about it but isn't Clarett suspended for half the season. If the NCAA knew about this b4 the Fiesta Bowl...oh forget it.

 

[joffer]

Good stuff IJF, I'm hoping Martin falls to 2.10 in the WCOFF. I give it a 50-50 chance right now. I would've taken him there in Omega if T.O hadn't fallen into my lap.

 

[Anarchy99]

Look at it a dfifferent way. Is CuMart an RB2 in a 12 team league....sure. But he might end up being at the bottom or towards the bottom of those RB2. Plus you are assuming that all the RB taken in the draft perform to your projections and there is no chance in hell that will happen.I want guys that might be RB1 for a lot of teams by years end that I can grab in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th rounds. I am not going to project O.Smith for 1,600 yds and 10 TD. However with all the injuries there and the fact Moe WIlliams is not much more than a goal line back...do you see where I am going. You have Smith projected at 800-1000 yds and 5+ TD. But he might very well outperform that by a lot. Get away from those evil projections and evaluate what you see. Group a few guys in the same tier and average out those projections if you must use them. You should have 6 or 7 guys at the 1,500 yd 10 TD level let's say. Some will fare better, some worse. Than maybe 1,200/8 is your next level and so on and so forth. BTW 1,500/10 is not where I am telling you to start. There are 4 or 5 RB that have a legitimate shot at 2,000/15+. Peace!

MOP -You have made your point and your opinion known, but for expert/shark leagues, people that draft in the first few spots in a draft will have to seriously consider taking Martin as their RB2. (In most shark drafts, Taylor will not last to the end of Round 2 if there are 12 or more teams).While you suggest having to "avoid" getting into a situation where you "have" to take Martin, you can't always change your draft slot.As I mentioned earlier, if you pass on Martin (or other so-so RBs in the late second/early third), you will have to pick from players with even more question marks, RBBC members, or backs on teams that can't run to save their collective lives.Again, as others have stated, who would you want to go to war with as your RB2? Canidate? Dunn? The SF Twins? Dunn? A-Train?You may get lucky if your RB2/3/4 hit pay dirt, but you may have no dependable RB2 to start the season. Last year, several guys drafted in the 3rd or later hit home runs. I don't think that will happen again this year.There are roughly 20 teams with RB that should be considered the primary ball handler. (By my count, teams in some form of RBBC include SF, NE, Pit, TB, Hou, Was, Oak, Atl, Min, Chi, Dal, Ari.)If ANY starting running back in the NFL gets the huge majority of carries, that running back AT WORST should rank within the Top 20 RB or close to it. So even if Martin is the WORST primary back in the league, he should AT WORST rank around #20.Even if Martin produces at the level you've indicated, he should AT A MINIMUM earn back where he is drafted (provided he doesn't get hurt). He is not getting drafted as the #10 RB off the board--he is getting drafted closer to the 20th RB off the board.In my mind, there is minimal risk in drafting Martin. Yes, he may have less upside than one of the other guys should they completely strike pay dirt (Canidate, Zereoue, OSmith, Barlow, Shipp are the ones that come to mind), but they need a lot to go their way to get the workload THAT MARTIN ALREADY GETS.

 

[The Z Machine]

What if Martin runs for a little over 1,000 yds. Has 400 yds receiving and a total of 6 TD.

In most leagues that is not going to win you a lot of games. He is a stop gap but he will not be doing anything to put you over the top.

It is roughly 11 points a week.

Look at it a dfifferent way. Is CuMart an RB2 in a 12 team league....sure. But he might end up being at the bottom or towards the bottom of those RB2. Plus you are assuming that all the RB taken in the draft persorm to your projections and there is no chance in hell that will happen.

I want guys that might be RB1 for a lot of teams by years end that I can grab in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th rounds. I am not going to project O.Smith for 1,600 yds and 10 TD. However with all the injuries there and the fact Moe WIlliams is not much more than a goal line back...do you see where I am going. You have Smith projected at 800-1000 yds and 5+ TD. But he might very well outperform that by a lot.

Get away from those evil projections and evaluate what you see. Group a few guys in the same tier and average out those projections if you must use them. You should have 6 or 7 guys at the 1,500 yd 10 TD level let's say. Some will fare better, some worse. Than maybe 1,200/8 is your next level and so on and so forth. BTW 1,500/10 is not where I am telling you to start. There are 4 or 5 RB that have a legitimate shot at 2,000/15+.

Peace!

I'm not buying this. You're advocating the selection of players that have the possibility of getting into the top 10 over guys that have the probability of being in the top 20. What if you wait on that RB2 and select Dunn and O. Smith in the 4th and 5th respectively. Now, what if Dunn really does end up splitting time with T.J. like he did last year and puts up RB19 numbers (like last year). What if Moe WIlliams plays at the goalline and vultures the TDs from Smith as well as getting more yards than he di last year by playing on 3rd downs? Well then you're stuck with 2 RBs that aren't as good as C-Mart.This is what projections (or tiers) are for. I don't have Dunn, Barlow, or Mack higher than C-Mart. They are not in the same tier IMO. What you suggest doing is gambling for a solid 2RB to emerge from your roster, which is something I don't like to gamble on. I would rather gamble that Chad Johnson or Koren Robinson break into the top 10 WRs with those 3rd - 6th round picks. By taking a lot of backs who have the potential to be RB1's but aren't, you limit the number of potential breakout WRs. I'll take my chances with my WRs producing rather than my RBs.

I'm not syaing however that you should take any of these upside backs later in the draft, but you are taking a huge risk by letting one of them be your 2RB from the get go. It would be more benficial to start off with 2 solid RBs, and select a few upside RBs later, and if one happens to break out, then you trade either him or one of the 2 solid RBs on your roster. Or just keep them for backup / injury pruposes.

Personally, I think you'll give yourself a better chance of winning the league using my drafting strategy than yours.

 

[BigRed]

Martin has done it year after year after year after year after year after year....And last season he was horrible for FF owners. His start to the season put a lot of owners in holes they could not get out of, even with his end of season push.

If someone was stupid enough to count on him as a #1 RB, they got in a hole they probably deserved. Martin was a very nice #2 RB last year for me.And btw I did take W Green over Martin as my #2 this year, but was rolling the dice on upside...Martin has very little, esp. with Pennington out. Don't kid yourselves that that plus Coles' loss won't make a big diff.

 

[imeimex]

MOP this thread is now 3 pages long and I still do not understand what you are saying. (Let me preface this by saying I normally agree with you, and want to thank you for the great contributions you add to this site.) But you won't give us guys that you rank above Taylor and Martin other than the obvious most have them in the 15-20 range, and in your own league they went in the 4th and 5th rounds which is tremendous value. I would imagine that the other RBs going at this time were RBBC or the likes of Candidate and Hambrick. Both Taylor and Martin have a lot more potential for great seasons than those guys. In naming your thread you say that Martin and Taylor are busts, but there likely will not be any sure bet Running Backs in the 4th and 5th rounds so they sound like steals to me. I can understand what you are saying in 12 team shark leagues where Taylor goes at the end of the first and Martin at the end of the second, but your closed mindedness forced you to miss great value by not taking these guys in the 4th or the 5th rounds.

 

[Tau837]

You are definitely shorting Martin, MOP. His upside is much better than you stated. I have posted at length about Martin several times... unfortunately, the search function doesn't seem to be working for me right now...IMO you are taking exactly the opposite of the right approach with Martin. You should be targeting him because he is undervalued rather than avoiding him.I have taken Martin in 3 leagues. In one 14 team league (start 2 RBs), I was able to take Henry in the first, Moss in the second, and Martin in the third (as the 19th RB taken). In another 8 team league (start 3 RBs), I was able to take Faulk in the first, Taylor in the second, Moss in the third, and Martin in the fourth (as the 20th RB taken). If I shared your opinion about Martin, I would have had to pass on Moss in both leagues to take a RB. Instead I have a guy who is a virtual lock to be a top 15-20 RB to go along with one of the top WRs.And, yes, I did just say that in the 8 team league, I drafted Faulk, Taylor, and Martin as my 3 starters. And I'm very happy about it.

 

[Insane Jets Fan]

Good stuff IJF, I'm hoping Martin falls to 2.10 in the WCOFF. I give it a 50-50 chance right now. I would've taken him there in Omega if T.O hadn't fallen into my lap.

I would have done the same...how T.O. fell that far is beyond me....nice pick....

 

[zoonation]

I for one believe agree that Martin is being WAY undervalued this year. He was hurt all last season. The year before (all the way back to 2001) he easily put up numbers worthy of an RB#1 selection. He has proven he can play through pain; to get 1000+ yrds last year on his two bum ankles was nothing short of remarkable. If he comes in healthy, I think he represents great value for anyone pairing him with a top seven pick, and extraordinary value for those people who can land him as RB#2 in the third (having presumably taken top 3 WR in second) The Jets are going to need a heavy dose of CMart this year, and I for one think he will deliver for them. Anyone who takes the likes of Green, George, Canidate, and even Garner ahead of Cmart are going to regret it later.Final note: we all know there is so much volatility in the top ten RB's from year to year. Would it be inconceivable to suggest that two guys who dropped out last year (Cmart and Edge and maybe even Lewis) could be guys who have top ten seasons this year? I don't think so.A good RB#3 at best? Gimme a break.

 

[trashman]

I would have selected Willie had he been there at 2.12 even before the Pennington injury. And, so did everyone else in the drafts I participated in. At the end of 2 beginning of 3, you have Martin and George, and then a whole slew of question marks.I think you have some alternatives with Taylor...but where Martin is sitting you have to take him and hope he bucks the odds.

I drafted the same positon and any RB thats available there is going to come with many questions around them.

 

[CaptainHucklebuck]

I'm amazed at the lengths that people go to on this board to try to convince others NOT to take guys, most notably Freddy Taylor. It's almost as if these people want to take Taylor, but are afraid of the risk, and would feel better if no one else decided to take the risk on him. I traded for Taylor as my #2 behind Portis, and have Dunn behind him. I couldn't be happier about it. Everyone talks about Taylor as this huge injury risk, and yes he's had his share. I would classify his groin pull as a 'freak' injury. Outside of that, he's no more injury prone than Marshall, who is the darling of this board. The fact that he's come out publicly and said that he could've played in games that he didn't early in his career is positive to me. A lot of those instances he was asked to sit by coaches, and a couple he sat to be ready for the playoffs, which he regrets now. Del Rio is no idiot, and knows how valuable Freddy is. Both have said that he would have played if it was the regular season. Again, people's feelings on Taylor are well known and don't need to be brought up again. If you don't like him, don't take him. It's not like the people that have him or will take him DON'T know about his history and his situation. Risk is a huge part of winning and I'll gladly take his risk/reward.

I took Portis, Taylor, Martin in my draft. I also picked up Toefield, just in case, but I don't foresee needing him. You hit it right on the head - I also assume anyone who tells me not to take Taylor (or to actually DROP him, as one poster recently recommended to me) is either misinformed, high, or in my league and trying to get Taylor. The guy's one of the most talented backs in the league. I'll be laughing all the way to the bank, I think... and so should you.

 

[Jobber]

I'm amazed at the lengths that people go to on this board to try to convince others NOT to take guys, most notably Freddy Taylor. It's almost as if these people want to take Taylor, but are afraid of the risk, and would feel better if no one else decided to take the risk on him. I traded for Taylor as my #2 behind Portis, and have Dunn behind him. I couldn't be happier about it. Everyone talks about Taylor as this huge injury risk, and yes he's had his share. I would classify his groin pull as a 'freak' injury. Outside of that, he's no more injury prone than Marshall, who is the darling of this board. The fact that he's come out publicly and said that he could've played in games that he didn't early in his career is positive to me. A lot of those instances he was asked to sit by coaches, and a couple he sat to be ready for the playoffs, which he regrets now. Del Rio is no idiot, and knows how valuable Freddy is. Both have said that he would have played if it was the regular season. Again, people's feelings on Taylor are well known and don't need to be brought up again. If you don't like him, don't take him. It's not like the people that have him or will take him DON'T know about his history and his situation. Risk is a huge part of winning and I'll gladly take his risk/reward.

I took Portis, Taylor, Martin in my draft. I also picked up Toefield, just in case, but I don't foresee needing him. You hit it right on the head - I also assume anyone who tells me not to take Taylor (or to actually DROP him, as one poster recently recommended to me) is either misinformed, high, or in my league and trying to get Taylor. The guy's one of the most talented backs in the league. I'll be laughing all the way to the bank, I think... and so should you.

Lots of Taylor hate on this board. He's a fantastic value considering where he's being drafted in most leagues.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It's a fair question. I will redo my grades thread on RB and release it here in the next day or 2. I am putting in 10 hour mortgage broker days again so it takes more time now. I wrote this thread at 5:30 this morning. I can see with that title why most of you think I am crazy. I will sort this out so we have clarity.

 

[Guru]

I agree with you MOP. While I won't shy away from drafting Taylor or Martin, I won 't reach for them. I have Taylor as the #17 Rb & Martin at #20.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Time to bump those threads we talked about before the season began. It's just 1 game but Martin looks like he will be pulled at the goal line and no longer has the speed to break them from far out. Vinny T missed WR and seems to have lost touch of the long ball. SHort field mean defesnes can stack the line. Washington is not as good defensively as they were made to look tonight.I am not rubbing it in anyone's face but I do want those that have posted here to talk about what they observed. This is not a good situation for CuMart and the Jets. Conway looks rough too. Wasn't he an early top20 projection on the FBG site? And others too? Projections stink.Grading based on the the situation after CP's injury would show you Martin is a very weak #2 right now and better suited as a #3.The problem is in 12 team+ leagues people ask who is better in the 20-24 slots. The answer is not really anyone but that does not help when 4 teams in that league have managed to one way or the other secure 2 of the top12 or 15 RB. Maybe even 3 of the top20. That was what I could never get across in some of the other posts. I hope Martin has some better days for his owners.

 

[Texican]

Very nice call M.O.P.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard. He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game. So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here. Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin. That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

About 28 other NFL QB right now friend.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I want to see you bump this when Taylor rips it up on Sunday, which he will.P.S. I did agree with you on Martin

 

[Ministry of Pain]

No problem BS, I take them as well as giving them. I am sure everyone will let me know. It's not like a have something personal against these 2 but they just seemed due for disaster based on what is happening around them.And I hate Paul Hackett. I am sure FUCLA is fond of the former USC man too.

 

[The Z Machine]

MOP, the Jets did look terrible tonight especially their offensive unit. C-Mart, Conway, and especially Testeverde looked piss poor. They had about 150 yards of total offense. They got good field position at times and did nothing with it. Basically it was total and utter failure. The only thing they did "well" was not turn the ball over, which saved the score from being really lopsided.Anyway, I think that C-Mart showed that he can still be a workhorse type back and can gain yards if he has holes to run through. He was stopped in the backfield a number of times by linebackers run-blitzing ot by the D-line getting penetration (see the goalline carry he had). Jordan will get his shots at the stripe, and that's tough for us C-Mart owners, but I didn't see anything that would lead me to beleive that Jordan was a better back than C-Mart right now. Basically, the Jets have no where to go but up. Not much of a silver lining... and I'll eat a little crow right now.