college ypc indicative of NFL success? (1 Viewer)

[BuckeyeChaos]

I seem to recall reading something quite a while ago concerning this. There seemed to be a magic cutoff in yards per carry in college that needed to be crossed and it was pretty high. I can't find this and I can't remember the ypc threshold. Does anyone else remember this?

Sankey's 5.7 number last year got me thinking about this again. While not low in traditional sense, I think per the referenced article that it is.

thanks

 

[tdmills]

I seem to recall reading something quite a while ago concerning this. There seemed to be a magic cutoff in yards per carry in college that needed to be crossed and it was pretty high. I can't find this and I can't remember the ypc threshold. Does anyone else remember this?

Sankey's 5.7 number last year got me thinking about this again. While not low in traditional sense, I think per the referenced article that it is.

thanks

He averaged 5.0 his sophomore year and his college career is 5.4.

I generally like my rbs to have 6.0 and don't like a significant drop in ypc their last season of college.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

thanks. I thought there was an article on this site with a lot of research that pointed to a higher number than 6.0 even.

 

[sn0mm1s]

I seem to recall reading something quite a while ago concerning this. There seemed to be a magic cutoff in yards per carry in college that needed to be crossed and it was pretty high. I can't find this and I can't remember the ypc threshold. Does anyone else remember this?

Sankey's 5.7 number last year got me thinking about this again. While not low in traditional sense, I think per the referenced article that it is.

thanks

He averaged 5.0 his sophomore year and his college career is 5.4.

I generally like my rbs to have 6.0 and don't like a significant drop in ypc their last season of college.

Only 5 RBs of the top 20 rushers broke 6.0 or above in college for their careers:

Walter Payton 6.1 (not D1 though)

Barry Sanders 6.8

Marshall Faulk 6.0

Edgerrin James 6.0

Warrick Dunn 6.9

 

[tdmills]

I seem to recall reading something quite a while ago concerning this. There seemed to be a magic cutoff in yards per carry in college that needed to be crossed and it was pretty high. I can't find this and I can't remember the ypc threshold. Does anyone else remember this?

Sankey's 5.7 number last year got me thinking about this again. While not low in traditional sense, I think per the referenced article that it is.

thanks

He averaged 5.0 his sophomore year and his college career is 5.4.I generally like my rbs to have 6.0 and don't like a significant drop in ypc their last season of college.

Only 5 RBs of the top 20 rushers broke 6.0 or above in college for their careers:

Walter Payton 6.1 (not D1 though)

Barry Sanders 6.8

Marshall Faulk 6.0

Edgerrin James 6.0

Warrick Dunn 6.9

I like their final college season over 6.0

 

[sn0mm1s]

I seem to recall reading something quite a while ago concerning this. There seemed to be a magic cutoff in yards per carry in college that needed to be crossed and it was pretty high. I can't find this and I can't remember the ypc threshold. Does anyone else remember this?

Sankey's 5.7 number last year got me thinking about this again. While not low in traditional sense, I think per the referenced article that it is.

thanks

He averaged 5.0 his sophomore year and his college career is 5.4.I generally like my rbs to have 6.0 and don't like a significant drop in ypc their last season of college.

Only 5 RBs of the top 20 rushers broke 6.0 or above in college for their careers:

Walter Payton 6.1 (not D1 though)

Barry Sanders 6.8

Marshall Faulk 6.0

Edgerrin James 6.0

Warrick Dunn 6.9

I like their final college season over 6.0

You would have Payton, Dunn, Sanders, Dickerson, Brown, Thurman Thomas and Fred Taylor (Curtis Martin broke it but only played 2 games his final college season) if you change the criteria to 6.0+ career OR 6.0+ last season and add back Faulk and James here are the guys you miss out on:

Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Tomlinson, Bettis, Dorsett, Allen, Riggins, Dillon, Harris, OJ, and SJax.

Among current players you wouldn't draft Peterson, McCoy, or Rice among several others.

 

[rdrouyn]

I rather try to look for individual statistics about the player such as combine scores vs ypc which is largely dependent on the oline and offense. That said you should still expect good production from an elite prospect. I dont know what the cutoff is.

 

[MAC_32]

I rather try to look for individual statistics about the player such as combine scores vs ypc which is largely dependent on the oline and offense. That said you should still expect good production from an elite prospect. I dont know what the cutoff is.

anything under five requires additional examination.

 

[Biabreakable]

IIRC Chase was saying ypc has poor predictive value compared to other statistics.

I kind of see what you are getting at. College defenses are not good. So the bar should be set higher for RB ypc production than what you would expect in the NFL.

Setting that standard at 6 ypc is going to have a lot of hit or miss. Likely more miss due to there not being a large group that qualifies.

 

[tdmills]

I seem to recall reading something quite a while ago concerning this. There seemed to be a magic cutoff in yards per carry in college that needed to be crossed and it was pretty high. I can't find this and I can't remember the ypc threshold. Does anyone else remember this?

Sankey's 5.7 number last year got me thinking about this again. While not low in traditional sense, I think per the referenced article that it is.

thanks

He averaged 5.0 his sophomore year and his college career is 5.4.I generally like my rbs to have 6.0 and don't like a significant drop in ypc their last season of college.

Only 5 RBs of the top 20 rushers broke 6.0 or above in college for their careers:

Walter Payton 6.1 (not D1 though)

Barry Sanders 6.8

Marshall Faulk 6.0

Edgerrin James 6.0

Warrick Dunn 6.9

I like their final college season over 6.0

You would have Payton, Dunn, Sanders, Dickerson, Brown, Thurman Thomas and Fred Taylor (Curtis Martin broke it but only played 2 games his final college season) if you change the criteria to 6.0+ career OR 6.0+ last season and add back Faulk and James here are the guys you miss out on:

Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Tomlinson, Bettis, Dorsett, Allen, Riggins, Dillon, Harris, OJ, and SJax.

Among current players you wouldn't draft Peterson, McCoy, or Rice among several others.

"Like" doesn't mean "has to be 6 ypc or I'm not drafting them"

 

[cstu]

IIRC Chase was saying ypc has poor predictive value compared to other statistics.

I kind of see what you are getting at. College defenses are not good. So the bar should be set higher for RB ypc production than what you would expect in the NFL.

Setting that standard at 6 ypc is going to have a lot of hit or miss. Likely more miss due to there not being a large group that qualifies.

I don't play much attention to YPC because there's such a vast difference in the quality of opponents in college. A couple huge games against lousy defenses can skew YPC rather easily.

Take this example:

300 carries for 1500 yards (5.0 YPC)

Add in a 100 yard run against a bad defense:

301 carries for 1600 yards (5.31 YPC)

That's an extreme example but illustrates what you're dealing with trying to compare YPC.

 

[cstu]

FWIW, I don't see anything wrong with Sankey's 5.7 YPC last year.

 

[cstu]

LeSean McCoy averaged 4.8 YPC his entire career.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I like the guys that can get me 3 yards every time.

 

[tdmills]

It's a check list for me.

6.0 or > +

4.0 ypc or < -

Look at next years rb class

Tj Yeldon> 6.0

Todd Gurley > 6.0

Melvin Gordon > 6.0

Jay Ajayi = 5.7

Mike Davis = 5.8

Then I look if they played cupcakes or were injured and that affected it.

Next size

Then film, speed, vision, toughness, agility, etc.

If they don't have the stats why would they put up great numbers in the NFL?

 

[Xue]

Demarco Murray 4.3 his final season.

I prefer to look at % of long runs instead of arbitrary YPC cutoff.

 

[Gandalf]

Ron Dayne had a 5.84 YPC in college. Doesn't offensive line play a huge factor in this stat?

 

[tdmills]

Demarco Murray 4.3 his final season.

I prefer to look at % of long runs instead of arbitrary YPC cutoff.

He was a 3rd round pick. Nothing is fool proof here.

 

[tdmills]

Ron Dayne had a 5.84 YPC in college. Doesn't offensive line play a huge factor in this stat?

That would show up on the film, just as it has for seastrunk.

 

[Brewtown]

What is a more important box to check? More than 6 ypc or combine performance.

I would side easily with combine performance.

Bishop Sankey had a great combine (he beat Gio Bernard in every measure-and I had Gio as my #1 rated RB last year-and would have taken him 1.1).

He also ran a great 3-cone. For those that haven't looked - take a look at some historical 3-cone times and who ran them.

Running a good 3-cone has been a pretty good measure to look at in determining NFL success....

NFL and Dynasty owners should feel good about drafting Bishop Sankey.

 

[Tanner9919]

Tre Mason, career 5.77ypc, playing in the tough SEC.

 

[tdmills]

Tre Mason, career 5.77ypc, playing in the tough SEC.

Exactly, when looking at the big games Mason played his best...which moves him into the + area for stats.

Vs crowell who was below 5 his freshman yr at uga and did well vs d2 but not great. That's not enough for a plus in the stats area for me.