brnichols87
Footballguy
I find it truly perplexing that so many "fantasy experts" are missing the boat on Cecil Shorts. This guy has low end wr1 upside and needs to be acquired by all prior to the trade deadline. He is potentially the last hope at a high upside wr that could swing the fantasy championship your way.
First of all, Short’s immense upside is rooted in the Jacksonville offensive scheme (seriously!) which has adopted a pass heavy persona in the last 7 weeks since Bortels was named the starter. The truly shocking statistics show just how prevalent the pass has become; they are currently 5th in the league in pass play percentage which stands at 63%. With the league average at about 58% pass this additional 5% over the norm may not seem like much at first glance however when combined with the league average plays per game of about 64.5 and extrapolated out over a full 16 game season this 5% equates to an additional 52 pass attempts over the average NFL team in 2014. In keeping with these percentages, Bortels is atop the NFL leader board in both attempts and completions since taking over in week 4; in the past 7 game stretch he ranks 4th league wide in both categories. The number of targets are immense and show no sign of letting up as there has been little to no fluctuation in pass attempts per game and the porous Jags D almost assures that a large lead late in a game would be a miracle meaning that pass attempts will continue to dominate through the late stages of each game.
When healthy the top Jags receivers have been peppered with targets on a consistent basis each week. In fact, both Cecil Shorts and ARob ranked in the top 15 in targets among receivers over the past 5 weeks. Shorts ranked 13th with a weekly average of 9.4 while Robinson was close behind at 15th with a weekly average of 8.8 targets per game. With an offense poised to continue relying on the passing game it seems plausible to assume that Bortels will put up 35+ attempts per game for the remainder of the season. Therefore, the 8.8 targets that Robinson accounted for will now be repurposed within the offense. While everyone would agree that a portion of these targets will be given to Shorts; how many is a complete guess at this point in time. However, appropriating even the conservative estimate of 2 per game to Shorts would equate to 11.4 targets per game if these were added to his per game averages over the last five contests. This would make Shorts the NFL leader in targets per game with D Thomas’s 11.22 currently leading the league. I would argue that greater upside (ie 12-15 targets a game) is definitely feasible.
Shorts will be at the very least a low end Wr2 going forward with potential for low end wr1 value: In addition to the high volume of targets consider the following points that will allow for his fantasy stardom late in the season.
-Upcoming Schedule:
Following their week 11 bye, the Jaguars have one of the easiest remaining schedules for fantasy wrs. According to current data, weeks 12-16 see the Jags facing the 5th easiest slate for receivers, and even more intriguing is their playoff schedule during which they are projected to have the easiest schedule for fantasy receivers.
-Consistent track record of production when afforded at least 10 targets:
Over the past three seasons, on 17 separate occasions Shorts accumulated 10 or more targets in a given week and has produced solid to excellent results in nearly every single instance. His consistency is evident in his per game average for the 17 contests which stands at 10.18 (non-ppr). For comparison, this figure would make him the #20 wr this season on a per game basis. Thus, he has already performed like a consistent low end wr2 when given the targets. Arguably most compelling about this data set is the presence of a rather high floor meaning that even in his “bad” performances he will still provide owners with a decent output; to this end, Shorts failed to produce at least 7 fantasy points on just three of 14 occasions or just 17% of the time. Taking it a step further, he produced 9 or more points in 13 games or about 76% of the time. You have probably heard pundits state that fantasy success is about limiting variability and in this sense Shorts is a truly remarkable asset as a consistent wr2. Keep in mind that Shorts “only” averaged about 11 targets per game in these 17 contests; receiving over 12 only three times and thus could conceivably outplay these averages if given a steady dose of 12+ targets weekly over the remainder of the season, more opportunity = more potential for success.
-It seems inevitable that Hurns and Lee will both struggle as their snaps increase
While I would like to be optimistic about the futures of these young players they both have the potential to take a serious nosedive in the coming weeks. If this happens and both struggle as starters, it would seem logical that Bortels would rely ever more heavily on the veteran Shorts (this could become a Brady-Edelman situation with Bortels locking onto Shorts almost exclusively) this would push the weekly target total to the 15+ range.
Hurns - Following his week one outbreak Hurns has regressed mightily; dropping a significant amount of passes (has 6 second in NFL) on his to the league lead in drop percentage (targets/drops) by a landslide. In fact at his current drop rate Hurns is on pace to have the worst drop percentage in the last three seasons. To make matters worse, he has not displayed the big play ability that made him a week 1 savior. To this end, four of his six 20+ yard catches came in August while just two have come in the past 6 weeks since.
Lee – drops and injuries made him fall in the draft and have seemingly followed him to the pros and kept him tied to the bench. In addition, he has been called out by Bradley for a lack of attention to detail/work ethic which is never a good thing. It really says something when despite being a high 2nd round pick, he cannot see the field over an undrafted rookie in Hurns who is having a historically bad stretch.
All signs point to Shorts becoming a major contributor down the stretch and due to the fact that he plays for the Jags and has had some injury issues this season he could be had for next to nothing. He is a much better bench stash for the fantasy homestretch than so many middling wr3s who have limited upside at best ie Terrance Williams ect...
First of all, Short’s immense upside is rooted in the Jacksonville offensive scheme (seriously!) which has adopted a pass heavy persona in the last 7 weeks since Bortels was named the starter. The truly shocking statistics show just how prevalent the pass has become; they are currently 5th in the league in pass play percentage which stands at 63%. With the league average at about 58% pass this additional 5% over the norm may not seem like much at first glance however when combined with the league average plays per game of about 64.5 and extrapolated out over a full 16 game season this 5% equates to an additional 52 pass attempts over the average NFL team in 2014. In keeping with these percentages, Bortels is atop the NFL leader board in both attempts and completions since taking over in week 4; in the past 7 game stretch he ranks 4th league wide in both categories. The number of targets are immense and show no sign of letting up as there has been little to no fluctuation in pass attempts per game and the porous Jags D almost assures that a large lead late in a game would be a miracle meaning that pass attempts will continue to dominate through the late stages of each game.
When healthy the top Jags receivers have been peppered with targets on a consistent basis each week. In fact, both Cecil Shorts and ARob ranked in the top 15 in targets among receivers over the past 5 weeks. Shorts ranked 13th with a weekly average of 9.4 while Robinson was close behind at 15th with a weekly average of 8.8 targets per game. With an offense poised to continue relying on the passing game it seems plausible to assume that Bortels will put up 35+ attempts per game for the remainder of the season. Therefore, the 8.8 targets that Robinson accounted for will now be repurposed within the offense. While everyone would agree that a portion of these targets will be given to Shorts; how many is a complete guess at this point in time. However, appropriating even the conservative estimate of 2 per game to Shorts would equate to 11.4 targets per game if these were added to his per game averages over the last five contests. This would make Shorts the NFL leader in targets per game with D Thomas’s 11.22 currently leading the league. I would argue that greater upside (ie 12-15 targets a game) is definitely feasible.
Shorts will be at the very least a low end Wr2 going forward with potential for low end wr1 value: In addition to the high volume of targets consider the following points that will allow for his fantasy stardom late in the season.
-Upcoming Schedule:
Following their week 11 bye, the Jaguars have one of the easiest remaining schedules for fantasy wrs. According to current data, weeks 12-16 see the Jags facing the 5th easiest slate for receivers, and even more intriguing is their playoff schedule during which they are projected to have the easiest schedule for fantasy receivers.
-Consistent track record of production when afforded at least 10 targets:
Over the past three seasons, on 17 separate occasions Shorts accumulated 10 or more targets in a given week and has produced solid to excellent results in nearly every single instance. His consistency is evident in his per game average for the 17 contests which stands at 10.18 (non-ppr). For comparison, this figure would make him the #20 wr this season on a per game basis. Thus, he has already performed like a consistent low end wr2 when given the targets. Arguably most compelling about this data set is the presence of a rather high floor meaning that even in his “bad” performances he will still provide owners with a decent output; to this end, Shorts failed to produce at least 7 fantasy points on just three of 14 occasions or just 17% of the time. Taking it a step further, he produced 9 or more points in 13 games or about 76% of the time. You have probably heard pundits state that fantasy success is about limiting variability and in this sense Shorts is a truly remarkable asset as a consistent wr2. Keep in mind that Shorts “only” averaged about 11 targets per game in these 17 contests; receiving over 12 only three times and thus could conceivably outplay these averages if given a steady dose of 12+ targets weekly over the remainder of the season, more opportunity = more potential for success.
-It seems inevitable that Hurns and Lee will both struggle as their snaps increase
While I would like to be optimistic about the futures of these young players they both have the potential to take a serious nosedive in the coming weeks. If this happens and both struggle as starters, it would seem logical that Bortels would rely ever more heavily on the veteran Shorts (this could become a Brady-Edelman situation with Bortels locking onto Shorts almost exclusively) this would push the weekly target total to the 15+ range.
Hurns - Following his week one outbreak Hurns has regressed mightily; dropping a significant amount of passes (has 6 second in NFL) on his to the league lead in drop percentage (targets/drops) by a landslide. In fact at his current drop rate Hurns is on pace to have the worst drop percentage in the last three seasons. To make matters worse, he has not displayed the big play ability that made him a week 1 savior. To this end, four of his six 20+ yard catches came in August while just two have come in the past 6 weeks since.
Lee – drops and injuries made him fall in the draft and have seemingly followed him to the pros and kept him tied to the bench. In addition, he has been called out by Bradley for a lack of attention to detail/work ethic which is never a good thing. It really says something when despite being a high 2nd round pick, he cannot see the field over an undrafted rookie in Hurns who is having a historically bad stretch.
All signs point to Shorts becoming a major contributor down the stretch and due to the fact that he plays for the Jags and has had some injury issues this season he could be had for next to nothing. He is a much better bench stash for the fantasy homestretch than so many middling wr3s who have limited upside at best ie Terrance Williams ect...
