Broncos looking to De-Fox (1 Viewer)

[moleculo]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The team’s new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

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John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

 

[BoltNlava]

whoa..that sounds horrific ... Hc vs stats guy? ...It may work... orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr....

 

[ICON211]

I really don't think you need a Director of Analytics to tell you when to go on fourth down. Never mind that every situation is unique (score, time, personnel).

 

[Sweet Love]

I really don't think you need a Director of Analytics to tell you when to go on fourth down. Never mind that every situation is unique (score, time, personnel).

"need" or "want"? I would not want someone in my ear, making suggestions, while I am trying to make a decision.

 

[Ilov80s]

I always thought it made sense for teams to have a numbers guy like this to at least inform coaches instantly the % on when to use or not use a timeout, go for it on 4th, go for 2, etc.

 

[Shutout]

Watching the Texans over the years, Broncos fans may come to like this decision even if they don't know it yet.

Whatever you think about fox's decision "in the moment", Kubes wasn't great either.

I think it's fine as long as its kept to something like a guy popping in on 4th and 7 and saying "Hey coach, they run "blah blah blah" blitz 75% of the time in this situation" or something that just really tips their tendencies.

I don't think it is meant to be like suggested above where a guy is going to try to dictate what should be run on a 4th an 1 inside the two or anything. I mean, everyone knows that...except Seattle

 

[maf005]

I really don't think you need a Director of Analytics to tell you when to go on fourth down. Never mind that every situation is unique (score, time, personnel).

Yes, coaches absolutely need another voice in their ear when it comes to these situations, many of which are difficult to fully comprehend in the moment. One example being 4th downs, coaches are generally far too conservative and punt at a higher rate than is statistically optimal. Clock management is perhaps less complicated but is screwed up even more often.

Good for Denver

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Teams have always needed a game manager like this. Coaches just have too much going on during the game that when these situations come up, they're often flustered and mess it up. That's the only reasonable explanation for some of the 3rd grade level errors that coaches make on a seemingly regular basis in the NFL.

And for people saying things like this...

I really don't think you need a Director of Analytics to tell you when to go on fourth down. Never mind that every situation is unique (score, time, personnel).

...consider this...

John Fox once elected to punt on 4th and 7 from the 30 yard line with 2:30 remaining and 1 timeout, while trailing by 4.

 

[rockaction]

Teams have always needed a game manager like this. Coaches just have too much going on during the game that when these situations come up, they're often flustered and mess it up. That's the only reasonable explanation for some of the 3rd grade level errors that coaches make on a seemingly regular basis in the NFL.

And for people saying things like this...

I really don't think you need a Director of Analytics to tell you when to go on fourth down. Never mind that every situation is unique (score, time, personnel).

...consider this...

John Fox once elected to punt on 4th and 7 from the 30 yard line with 2:30 remaining and 1 timeout, while trailing by 4.

We haven't agreed much lately, but this will surely help in the overall scheme of things.

Too much going on. It would require somebody even smarter than Belichick to keep all of these things in mind, and even he screws up sometimes. Nice to have a reasonable voice.

 

[ICON211]

I'd rather just have a coach that has a feel for the game.

 

[Arodin]

I'd rather just have a coach that has a feel for the game.

I don't know. That sounds a lot like the way old school baseball managers talked about all the newfangled analytics and defensive shifting that has now become a staple of the game.

I could easily see advancing technology make the same kind of analytics possible for football. Football has significant time pressure compared to baseball, so having a specialist on the staff might be the most efficient way to handle it.

 

[Houston turmOiler]

Watching the Texans over the years, Broncos fans may come to like this decision even if they don't know it yet.

Whatever you think about fox's decision "in the moment", Kubes wasn't great either.

I think it's fine as long as its kept to something like a guy popping in on 4th and 7 and saying "Hey coach, they run "blah blah blah" blitz 75% of the time in this situation" or something that just really tips their tendencies.

I don't think it is meant to be like suggested above where a guy is going to try to dictate what should be run on a 4th an 1 inside the two or anything. I mean, everyone knows that...except Seattle

Sure seems better than leaving it up to Kubiak. In-game adjustments and decisions were never his strong suit...

Still, reading the thread title and then considering they hired Kubiak.... it's somewhat comical.

 

[ICON211]

I'd rather just have a coach that has a feel for the game.

I don't know. That sounds a lot like the way old school baseball managers talked about all the newfangled analytics and defensive shifting that has now become a staple of the game.

I could easily see advancing technology make the same kind of analytics possible for football. Football has significant time pressure compared to baseball, so having a specialist on the staff might be the most efficient way to handle it.

I think the situations in football are just so unique. I don't care if the 4th and 2 percentage for all teams is 58% or whatever if for instance I had Marshawn Lynch, the best offensive line in the NFL and I was playing against the worst run D in the league. Then factor in time and score.

 

[JetMaxx]

Congrats Chicago.

 

[BassNBrew]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The team’s new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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[flapgreen]

Sounds horrible

 

[josefrees]

I love this if I am a head coach. As soon as a terrible decision is made the analytics guy gets blamed

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm still waiting for an NFL team to hire a true genius as a head coach.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Highest winning percentages of active NFL coaches and where they rank ALL-TIME in NFL history.

Fox ranks higher all-time than some legends like, Chuck Noll, Bill Parcels, Marv Levy.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/

Coaches, Records, and Coaching Totals​

===========

14 Bill Belichick 1991-2014

Games - 320 Won - 211 Lost - 109 Tied - 0 Winning Percentage .659

15 Mike McCarthy 2006-2014

144 94 49 1 Winning Percentage .656

21 Mike Tomlin 2007-2014

128 82 46 0 Winning Percentage .641

40 Andy Reid 1999-2014

256 150 105 1 Winning Percentage .588

44 Jim Caldwell 2009-2014

64 37 27 0 Winning Percentage .578

45 Pete Carroll 1994-2014

144 83 61 0 Winning Percentage .576

48 John Fox 2002-2014

208 119 89 0 Winning Percentage .572

​

 

[moleculo]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The team’s new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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v

lol. I knew back then that Fox wasn't the best guy out there, but he is exactly what the Broncos needed after the Josh McD fiasco - a steady hand on the wheel, stability, and integrity. He is a coach capable of making a bad team good, but not a good team great.

The Bears will be happy as Fox brings them back to respectability. I expect he can temper Cutler and will lead with the defense, which IMO is what the Bears should be all about.

 

[mikmak8902]

I really don't think you need a Director of Analytics to tell you when to go on fourth down. Never mind that every situation is unique (score, time, personnel).

"need" or "want"? I would not want someone in my ear, making suggestions, while I am trying to make a decision.

I see this as nothing but a good thing. The Director of Analytics isn't going to be arguing with the head coach about whether or not to go for it on 4th down. He's going to be there as a quick reference. Kubiak will simply be asking for numbers on specific scenarios. The analytics guy will give him the number. Pretty sure that's going to be the extent of his input.

 

[RBM]

So stupid

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Highest winning percentages of active NFL coaches and where they rank ALL-TIME in NFL history.

Fox ranks higher all-time than some legends like, Chuck Noll, Bill Parcels, Marv Levy.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/

Coaches, Records, and Coaching Totals​

===========

14 Bill Belichick 1991-2014

Games - 320 Won - 211 Lost - 109 Tied - 0 Winning Percentage .659

15 Mike McCarthy 2006-2014

144 94 49 1 Winning Percentage .656

21 Mike Tomlin 2007-2014

128 82 46 0 Winning Percentage .641

40 Andy Reid 1999-2014

256 150 105 1 Winning Percentage .588

44 Jim Caldwell 2009-2014

64 37 27 0 Winning Percentage .578

45 Pete Carroll 1994-2014

144 83 61 0 Winning Percentage .576

48 John Fox 2002-2014

208 119 89 0 Winning Percentage .572

​

The funny thing about being a legend that ranks 50th in W/L percentage is that it means a lot of people have a better W/L percentage than you. In Parcel's case, this includes not only Fox but guys like Jim Caldwell, Mike Smith, Mike Martz, and Barry Switzer. Most of those did it without the handicap of Peyton Manning, which almost guarantees you 12 wins per season (Fox's W/L without Peyton is right at .500).

Heck, if Peyton Manning hadn't missed a season with that neck injury, Jim Caldwell would probably be #1 on that list.

Beyond all that, it's possible to be able to put together a good team and develop players well, but be poor at in-game decisions. Fox pretty obviously falls into this category, or for another example, someone like Andy Reid.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The team’s new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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v

lol. I knew back then that Fox wasn't the best guy out there, but he is exactly what the Broncos needed after the Josh McD fiasco - a steady hand on the wheel, stability, and integrity. He is a coach capable of making a bad team good, but not a good team great.

The problem is that when you have Peyton Manning, you're already a good team. A coach capable of making a good team great is exactly what they needed.

 

[moleculo]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The team’s new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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v

lol. I knew back then that Fox wasn't the best guy out there, but he is exactly what the Broncos needed after the Josh McD fiasco - a steady hand on the wheel, stability, and integrity. He is a coach capable of making a bad team good, but not a good team great.

The problem is that when you have Peyton Manning, you're already a good team. A coach capable of making a good team great is exactly what they needed.

that's exactly right, but remember when Fox took over - the team was coming off of a 4-12 season and the incumbent QB was Kyle Orton (with Tebow waiting in the wings).

As soon as Manning signed, it should have been obvious that Fox wasn't the right guy any more. The irony is that Fox may have been one reason Manning signed there in the first place - a player-friendly coach who was going to let Manning have his way with the O.

 

[LuckyOne]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The teams new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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v

lol. I knew back then that Fox wasn't the best guy out there, but he is exactly what the Broncos needed after the Josh McD fiasco - a steady hand on the wheel, stability, and integrity. He is a coach capable of making a bad team good, but not a good team great.

The problem is that when you have Peyton Manning, you're already a good team. A coach capable of making a good team great is exactly what they needed.

Manning wasn't there when they hired Fox

 

[ICON211]

Things that factor in on whether to go on fourth down or not and what play to call:

time

score

field position

your offensive personnel

your defensive personnel

their offensive personnel

their defensive personnel

effectiveness of your field goal kicker/punter

weather conditions

You need a coach that has a feel and an understanding of the exact situation he is currently in not a numbers guy quoting percentages.

 

[maf005]

Things that factor in on whether to go on fourth down or not and what play to call:

time

score

field position

your offensive personnel

your defensive personnel

their offensive personnel

their defensive personnel

effectiveness of your field goal kicker/punter

weather conditions

You need a coach that has a feel and an understanding of the exact situation he is currently in not a numbers guy quoting percentages.

Try not to get hung up on these 4th down situations. There is more too it than that

 

[Warrior]

Get one of these guys for Seattle.

Things that factor in on whether to go on fourth down or not and what play to call:

time

score

field position

your offensive personnel

your defensive personnel

their offensive personnel

their defensive personnel

effectiveness of your field goal kicker/punter

weather conditions

You need a coach that has a feel and an understanding of the exact situation he is currently in not a numbers guy quoting percentages.

Every single one of these can be quantified.

Most head coaches probably go with the wrong 'gut feeling' far more than we realize.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The teams new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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v

lol. I knew back then that Fox wasn't the best guy out there, but he is exactly what the Broncos needed after the Josh McD fiasco - a steady hand on the wheel, stability, and integrity. He is a coach capable of making a bad team good, but not a good team great.

The problem is that when you have Peyton Manning, you're already a good team. A coach capable of making a good team great is exactly what they needed.

Manning wasn't there when they hired Fox

Right, but I thought the discussion I was jumping into was about Moleculo (and Broncos fans in general) supporting Fox as the right guy up until recently, and well into Peyton's time in Denver.

I never really understood why Peyton wanted to go to Denver in the first place. It seemed just like the same situation he was leaving and struggled to win Super Bowls in. A coach that gives you no advantage (especially in the postseason) and a bad defense. It seems like the majority of "great" quarterbacks, and virtually all of the multiple Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, have been backed by great coaches and/or great defenses and/or great running games, of which the Broncos had none when Peyton went there.

The differences between the greatness of Peyton vs. Brady vs. Montana on individual levels are likely small, but the differences between Brady+Belichick, or Montana+Walsh vs. Peyton+Fox/Caldwell/etc are large and are a big part of the difference.

 

[VaTerp]

Teams have always needed a game manager like this. Coaches just have too much going on during the game that when these situations come up, they're often flustered and mess it up. That's the only reasonable explanation for some of the 3rd grade level errors that coaches make on a seemingly regular basis in the NFL.

Agreed. The naysayers here are being extremely short sighted IMO.

 

[rockaction]

Right, but I thought the discussion I was jumping into was about Moleculo (and Broncos fans in general) supporting Fox as the right guy up until recently, and well into Peyton's time in Denver.

I never really understood why Peyton wanted to go to Denver in the first place. It seemed just like the same situation he was leaving and struggled to win Super Bowls in. A coach that gives you no advantage (especially in the postseason) and a bad defense. It seems like the majority of "great" quarterbacks, and virtually all of the multiple Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, have been backed by great coaches and/or great defenses and/or great running games, of which the Broncos had none when Peyton went there.

The differences between the greatness of Peyton vs. Brady vs. Montana on individual levels are likely small, but the differences between Brady+Belichick, or Montana+Walsh vs. Peyton+Fox/Caldwell/etc are large and are a big part of the difference.

Peyton goes to SF and it's likely two Super Bowls and nothing anybody can do about it.

I was stunned by the Denver news. Utterly stunned.

 

[moleculo]

The Broncos Will Try To Cut Down On In-Game Coaching Stupidity

The Denver Broncos will try something new this year that, should it go well, will have fans in Denver spending a little less time shaking their damn heads at head coach Gary Kubiak. The teams new Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, will have a say when it comes to in-game coaching decisions.

...

John Fox was terrible with in-game decisions. It's heartening to me that the Broncos have not only hired a statistician to get into some of the analytic stuff for off-field , but they are giving him a headset to advise the coach in-game. it will be curious how this plays out.

Interesting that you finally came around to this viewpoint. Now the Bears fans are carrying the torch.

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v

lol. I knew back then that Fox wasn't the best guy out there, but he is exactly what the Broncos needed after the Josh McD fiasco - a steady hand on the wheel, stability, and integrity. He is a coach capable of making a bad team good, but not a good team great.

The problem is that when you have Peyton Manning, you're already a good team. A coach capable of making a good team great is exactly what they needed.

Manning wasn't there when they hired Fox

Right, but I thought the discussion I was jumping into was about Moleculo (and Broncos fans in general) supporting Fox as the right guy up until recently, and well into Peyton's time in Denver.

I never really understood why Peyton wanted to go to Denver in the first place. It seemed just like the same situation he was leaving and struggled to win Super Bowls in. A coach that gives you no advantage (especially in the postseason) and a bad defense. It seems like the majority of "great" quarterbacks, and virtually all of the multiple Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, have been backed by great coaches and/or great defenses and/or great running games, of which the Broncos had none when Peyton went there.

The differences between the greatness of Peyton vs. Brady vs. Montana on individual levels are likely small, but the differences between Brady+Belichick, or Montana+Walsh vs. Peyton+Fox/Caldwell/etc are large and are a big part of the difference.

If we are being honest, the Broncos D wasn't bad prior to Mannings arrival. The stats may not show it, but they were actually pretty darn good in 2011. They were simply put in a lot of bad situations by an ineffective offense - Tebow led the team to a lot of 3-outs for 3/4 of the game. Note that in 2012, the D was ranked 4th in points and 2nd in yards.

Generally speaking, Fox called a good game on D - I have zero complaints with anything done on that side of the ball (until the playoffs last year).

Manning chose Denver because of Elway. Elway told him exactly what he needed to hear, leaning on his experience as a 38 year old SB MVP. He sold him on a solid D - Von Miller, Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, a dedication to the running game (see what the Broncos did with McGahee the prior year), a player friendly head coach who was not married to a philosophy (Hell, if they could adapt their O to suit Tebow, they certainly could for Manning), a young stud WR in DT, and a willingness to go out and get the pieces needed via free agency.

The day after the 2013 SB, at a press-conference, John Fox said (paraphrasing here): "Well, uh, we won 13 games. We won some playoff games, and made it to the superbowl. That's not too shabby." When he said that, you could see the smoke pouring out of Elways ears. That's the kind of attitude, 'good enough is good enough,' that cost Fox his job. I think Elway wanted to fire Fox right then, but you really can't fire a coach after a SB year, can you?