Best first 2 QB seasons (1 Viewer)

[Ryan99]

25 pass yards per point, 10 rush yards per point, -2 points per interception, 6 points per TD

Cam Newton's and Andy Dalton's 2012 stats were all multiplied by 4/3 (12 games played).

Cam Newton 769

Dan Marino 670

Andy Dalton 605

Peyton Manning 566

Carson Palmer 530

Cam Newton extends his "best ever first X QB seasons" to 2, assuming he does not experience a total meltdown over the last 4 games (if anything he's playing better now and should exceed this projection), even surpassing Marino including his MVP season. The big surprise for me is Andy Dalton, who's on pace for 4000/32 + 4 rushing TDs. The league wide increase in passing numbers and the recent trend of starting rookie QBs immediately obviously helped Newton and Dalton (and will help RG3, Luck and Wilson).

So the question is does this trend continue, or are Newton and Dalton really just that good? Do you expect RG3, Luck or Wilson to join this group after next year? Is Dalton really as good as his 4000/36 indicates? What's a "typical" season for Newton going to look like over the next couple years?

I think Newton has a chance to be the best fantasy QB of all time. There was a lot of dysfunction on that team this year and he still put up 4000, 700 rushing and 27 TDs. If that's what he does every year that's an amazing line, and I think he has a decent chance to improve on that. I've never seen a QB that can throw, run for yards, and run for short yardage TDs like Newton. It's this last thing that really sets him apart because it allows him to take goal line carries unlike Vick or RG3.

Dalton is on a trajectory to become the next great pocket QB. Despite their early success, the highly drafted QBs drafted of the past few years have been disappointments in that they never developed into truly great players. Guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford and Josh Freeman are good (unlike busts like Bradford and Sanchez) but have not entered the elite tier of Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Manning.

It's interesting that the top 4 QBs' (I think it's safe to put Manning back there now) ages are 33, 35, 29 and 36. My personal list has Cam Newton and RG3 rounding out the top 6 and then Dalton, Ryan, Stafford and Luck (not in order).

 

[spodog]

So the question is does this trend continue, or are Newton and Dalton really just that good?

Both. I think we are in a cyclical period where a tremendous amount of QB talent has entered the league in the last few years, with guys who will dominate for years to come, similar to what happened in '83-'85. 1983 - Marino, Elway, Jim Kelly

1984 - Esiason, Steve Young (supp draft)

1985 - Cunningham

The difference here, as your numbers point out, is that the guys coming in the last two years are contributing right away. The advances in offensive schemes, big money coordinators at the college level and year round training regimes for the college athletes are producing QBs that are ready to go right out of the can, no additional seasoning required.

Do you expect RG3, Luck or Wilson to join this group after next year?

Yes. RG3's confidence, poise and moxy are not one year flukes. The Redskins scheme may have to change at some point, as defenses adjust to this option read scheme when they play WAS next year, but RG3 will continue to play at a high level. Luck is what everybody thought he was. Incredibly bright, student of the game, and able to forget about the last play or last series instantly and focus on whats next (something that still burdens hotheads like Phillip Rivers). Luck will approach elite status and stay there. Jury still out on R. Wilson, but there are a number of guys who could also make the QBs who entered in '10,'11 and '12 possibly the best 3 year window ever. Is Dalton really as good as his 4000/36 indicates?

His stats have to be compared to his peers in the modern game, but he is very good, and the beneficiary of A.J. Green's immense talent. If Newton, RG3 or even Tannehill this year were able to step into a situation with an A.J. Green as their #1 guy, you'd see even better raw passing stats for them.

What's a "typical" season for Newton going to look like over the next couple years?

That's a really good question. He's on a team in need of some major overhaul offensively, so we should expect a lot of variability based upon front office decisions in the coming 24 months. More money than any other NFL team invested in their top 3 RB's, and horrible results to show for it. Best receiver is 33. This team is going to continue to struggle, and Cam seems prone to whine and pout, so could easily see him dropping off into a 2800/14/18 type season, even with his talent.