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Bear Market Rally Over (1 Viewer)

pinkham13

pinkham13

Footballguy
With the Fed coming up next week and a nice July rally of 10% Anybody ready for a retest of the June lows? This doesn’t look like the typical v bottom we’ve seen a lot of lately. I say we retest then rally into mid terms. Maybe a slightly lower low to scare everyone out.

 
pinkham13 said:
With the Fed coming up next week and a nice July rally of 10% Anybody ready for a retest of the June lows? This doesn’t look like the typical v bottom we’ve seen a lot of lately. I say we retest then rally into mid terms. Maybe a slightly lower low to scare everyone out.
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I expect the market to drop another 10-15% between yesterday and year-end

 
The fed meeting is more than priced in already.  Next week will be driven entirely by the earnings reports of the big dogs.

The tech drop was because everyone found out that inflation was going to drive up interest rates, which would make borrowing money harder, which hurts growth companies.  The bigger broader market drop was on macro economic fears that would soon bear out via weaker earnings reports, and people started selling trying to front-run those bad earnings reports.

Those earnings reports (many of the big ones) are next week.  So if they're better than expected the rally can continue.  If they're as bad as everyone was anticipating, look out below.

I do think we'll see some relief mid August when the July CPI comes out.  That CPI number is massively effected by oil and oil prices have been down by a hefty chunk in July.

 
Here's a bit from a former client I used to have back when I was living in Boston.  Damn, I kind of miss Boston sometimes.  Denver just doesn't seem to have this caliber of client, anywhere.  At all.     https://fortune.com/2022/07/20/jeremy-grantham-stocks-plunge-another-25-percent-superbubble/

"It's likely that there will be considerably more pain before this is finished," he said in a Monday interview with the Associated Press, arguing that the S&P 500’s fair value is “pretty close to 3,000,” as opposed to the 3,970 the index traded at on Wednesday. 

If Grantham, the chief investment strategist of the asset management firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, is right, it means the S&P 500 has another 25% drop ahead of it from current levels.

“There is absolutely nothing to stop the market from going below fair value. It’s certainly entitled to spend several months below 3,000,” Grantham said.
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Capella said:
Yea I see these comments and I just wonder how short that guy is on the market. 
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I have no idea how short he is or his company is.  But I can tell you this...  he has made not just tens of millions, but hundreds of millions managing some very large pension funds.  As has his partner, Eyk de Mol Van Otterloo, who was also a client.  Here's a blurb about Eyk...  he has given millions of dollars of art to the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, in addition to building them a effin' library.    https://www.artnews.com/art-collectors/top-200-profiles/rose-marie-and-eijk-van-otterloo/

https://www.mfa.org/give/gifts-of-art/van-otterloo-and-weatherbie-collections

 
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johnnycakes said:
I have no idea how short he is or his company is.  But I can tell you this...  he has made not just tens of millions, but hundreds of millions managing some very large pension funds.  As has his partner, Eyk de Mol Van Otterloo, who was also a client.  Here's a blurb about Eyk...  he has given millions of dollars of art to the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, in addition to building them a effin' library.    https://www.artnews.com/art-collectors/top-200-profiles/rose-marie-and-eijk-van-otterloo/
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Has he outperformed the SP500 index fund?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Has he outperformed the SP500 index fund?
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Is that the best question you can ask...  have you read the Fortune article, where he's called some of the biggest bear markets in recent history?  In both domestic markets and foreign?  I only took care of this guy's taxes.  I have no idea how he's doing in comparison to the S&P 500.  But when he speaks, Wall Street tends to listen.  

 
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johnnycakes said:
I have no idea how short he is or his company is.  But I can tell you this...  he has made not just tens of millions, but hundreds of millions managing some very large pension funds.  As has his partner, Eyk de Mol Van Otterloo, who was also a client.  Here's a blurb about Eyk...  he has given millions of dollars of art to the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, in addition to building them a effin' library.    https://www.artnews.com/art-collectors/top-200-profiles/rose-marie-and-eijk-van-otterloo/

https://www.mfa.org/give/gifts-of-art/van-otterloo-and-weatherbie-collections
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He’s a perma-bear.  I’m a huge fan of the guy, have met him twice, brilliant investor.  But it’s important to know his bias — he’s almost always bearish on the market.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
He’s a perma-bear.  I’m a huge fan of the guy, have met him twice, brilliant investor.  But it’s important to know his bias — he’s almost always bearish on the market.
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:goodposting:

He's the opposite of perm-bull Cathy Wood.  It doesn't make them bad people but it's good to know that when reading their opinions. 

 
johnnycakes said:
This dude's resume doesn't stand up to Jeremy Grantham's in any way, shape, or form.  And what kind of site is he published on?  Jeremy Grantham is on Fortune.  I don't even recognize your dude's site.  
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I noted that because he wrote a book with that exact comment.  I'll leave it to others to determine whether there is value in the information he presents.  What I can say is that he's done a bunch of studies about dollar cost averaging and how it performs vs buy the dip and during terrible markets, etc.  That's really what it's about and the math around DCA is very solid.  (BTW if you read the blog that's pretty much the book).

There are other sites that are pretty spectacular that don't get published in Fortune - Portfolio Charts, Early Retirement Now prime among them.

 
Sand said:
I noted that because he wrote a book with that exact comment.  I'll leave it to others to determine whether there is value in the information he presents.  What I can say is that he's done a bunch of studies about dollar cost averaging and how it performs vs buy the dip and during terrible markets, etc.  That's really what it's about and the math around DCA is very solid.  (BTW if you read the blog that's pretty much the book).

There are other sites that are pretty spectacular that don't get published in Fortune - Portfolio Charts, Early Retirement Now prime among them.
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There is some good content in here.  DCA research is worthwhile for people to understand.  Most investors should be “passive DCA adherents.”  Why?  Because most people aren’t capable of being clinical and disciplined enough to be active investors. It’s really hard to do.  You’ve gotta be uber-analytical, stubborn, willing to ignore all the grief you get from people around you who tell you “it’s a hot market, why are you sitting this out?” or “what kind of moron would buy stocks now?”

Thus if someone accepts that they can’t be an active investor — almost nobody should be — then DCA is the intelligent way to go.  The links provided by @Sand are good reading.

 
The nation is already in a recession. Most people just don't know it yet. Even Apple is putting the brakes on hiring and their market cap is more than the GDP of most countries. 

 
Alex P Keaton said:
There is some good content in here.  DCA research is worthwhile for people to understand.  Most investors should be “passive DCA adherents.”  Why?  Because most people aren’t capable of being clinical and disciplined enough to be active investors. It’s really hard to do.  You’ve gotta be uber-analytical, stubborn, willing to ignore all the grief you get from people around you who tell you “it’s a hot market, why are you sitting this out?” or “what kind of moron would buy stocks now?”

Thus if someone accepts that they can’t be an active investor — almost nobody should be — then DCA is the intelligent way to go.  The links provided by @Sand are good reading.
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Warren Buffet likes DCA. He says it protects against adverse price selection. TIP is down two standard deviations. Might be a good place to keep some dry powder and still get dividends in an IRA. I don’t like them in taxable accounts as much. 

 
Alex P Keaton said:
johnnycakes said:
I have no idea how short he is or his company is. But I can tell you this... he has made not just tens of millions, but hundreds of millions managing some very large pension funds. As has his partner, Eyk de Mol Van Otterloo, who was also a client. Here's a blurb about Eyk... he has given millions of dollars of art to the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, in addition to building them a effin' library. https://www.artnews.com/art-collectors/top-200-profiles/rose-marie-and-eijk-van-otterloo/

https://www.mfa.org/give/gifts-of-art/van-otterloo-and-weatherbie-collections
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He’s a perma-bear. I’m a huge fan of the guy, have met him twice, brilliant investor. But it’s important to know his bias — he’s almost always bearish on the market.
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Perma-bear... perhaps. And if you say so. Whatchoo think now, chief? https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying...mcl3yhhgimm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
 
johnnycakes said:
Alex P Keaton said:
johnnycakes said:
I have no idea how short he is or his company is. But I can tell you this... he has made not just tens of millions, but hundreds of millions managing some very large pension funds. As has his partner, Eyk de Mol Van Otterloo, who was also a client. Here's a blurb about Eyk... he has given millions of dollars of art to the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, in addition to building them a effin' library. https://www.artnews.com/art-collectors/top-200-profiles/rose-marie-and-eijk-van-otterloo/

https://www.mfa.org/give/gifts-of-art/van-otterloo-and-weatherbie-collections
Click to expand...
He’s a perma-bear. I’m a huge fan of the guy, have met him twice, brilliant investor. But it’s important to know his bias — he’s almost always bearish on the market.
Click to expand...
Perma-bear... perhaps. And if you say so. Whatchoo think now, chief? https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying...mcl3yhhgimm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Huh? I think the market is still over valued. What’s your point? I just pointed out the guy has a bias and people should know that when reading him.
 
Jeremy Grantham is a perma-bear. I’m sure he’s a nice guy. But he is a perma-bear. I personally don’t read after people who are perma-bears or bulls as their stories don’t change. Grantham will call the biggest bear markets in history cause he’s always bearish. Just like Roubini. I used to follow Grantham closely for a while until around 2011-2012. Then I realized his SPX target was always 20% below the market. If you took his advice over the past decade+ you lost out on a lot more money than whatever you may lose in the next year or two.
 
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