Auctions.... (1 Viewer)

[amphibianbri]

I did a search for auction material and didn't find a whole lot of theory topics, so I decided to start one here.

I loved the talk last night on Drive Block about auctions and am surprised it doesn't seem to get talked about much on the boards. I know David has had great articles in the past about the "Perfect Auction", but I know some of us have auctions coming soon, so I thought I would share some of my ideas here that I use in my league (along with reiterating David's theory). The nice thing is, even though I know a few guys from my league will see this, it doesn't matter because I'm not locked in to a certain player or players with the method. I did a little of this last night in the chat room, but want something more detailed to try and help out others or at least get some more discussion going:

I use a method similar to David's where I use percentages for everything and base a roster strategy from it. For example, here's my basic strategy going into a bid: (my league has a $200 cap, 18 players, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/T).

QB = 11% RB = 53% WR = 30% TE, K, D = 7%

I usually will have a break down like David mentions per position, but I don't necessarily stick right to it as you have to let the auction come to you. I'll explain this in a minute.

QB1 = $18

QB2 = $3

RB1 = $45

RB2 = $35

RB3 = $20

RB4 = $6

WR1 = $28

WR2 = $17

WR3 = $8

WR4 = $5

WR5 = $2

TE1 = $6

TE2 = $1

K = $1

K = $1

D/T = $1

D/T = $1

Bench $2

I usually make a list of 3-4 guys I like at each slot that I realistically think I can get for that price. As David has said, if you can save money at one spot or spend a little too much somewhere, you just adjust as you go. Using the dominator along with any prior year's auction prices helps immensley in figuring out how much guys may actually go for. For instance, I figure LT will go for somewhere around $75 in my auction. Even though my RB1 is slotted for $45, if LT is going for $60, I'm in. Real life example. I'm in an ESPN auction last night and get Lynch for $44. I've got an extra $1 to use at another spot. I get into a mini bidding war for Portis and end up spending $43, which is $8 above my RB2 wish list. I now am at -$7, so I have to save elsewhere. Well, next I got Ocho Cinco (think he'll be real good this year) for $17. If he's my WR1, that saves me $11 and puts me back in the plus (Santonio Holmes ended up as my #2 for $15, so I actually was able to pocket the savings).

So, having a plan is great to be disciplined, but don't be so blinded by your plan that you fail to see bargains. If you see studs at significant bargains, jump on them! If you don't, the average players later will end up costing you way too much, as everyone will have $$ left. One thing I like to do is throw out mid level guys early and see what happens. If they go cheap because everyone else is saving $$ for Moss, Brady, LT, etc. and I can pull MJD for a 25% discount, I get a nice RB2 and have extra $$ to spend on a stud later. If everyone is going for huge $$ right away, you're probably going to have to pay for a player or two for more than you would like or risk ending up with a really average team (and unless you play best ball, quantity won't always beat quality).

You are going to have to sneak that sleeper late to have great success, but that's what the Shark Pool is for. Always have the ability at the end of a bid to have $$ left to be a player. If you can bid $3 to everyone else's $1, you're in the cat bird's seat to pluck those late round stars that will help you win big later.

If nothing else, I hope this gets some more ideas running. I'd love to hear some other actual theories that people have used and how they have worked for ya. Have they changed over the years as more teams go to RBBC and air it out more?

Amphibianbri a.k.a Wisebri (in the Drive Block)

 

[BigRed]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...lite=%2Bauction

 

[amphibianbri]

Appreciated Red, but I just took a quick peek through the page that the search linked to (which I di as well), and am I to understand that auctions just aren't a big deal in here? All but two of those are "Do you want to be in my league?" "I have MBIII for $15, should I keep him?" Tillmanisahero's was heading toward what I was looking for (could have tacked on to that and bumped I guess ). but I just thought speaking of actual theories would be nice. Sorry if that isn't of interest. DO you have any auction thoughts?

 

[NYRAGE]

I agree, we hardly ever get much auction strategy talk.

Our league switched to an auction draft two years ago. Even though I feel that I had mastered the conventional draft approach, I'm still feeling my way around the auction draft process.

I really like having a top 5 rb, but it really can hamstring the rest of your team if you're spending $65+ early in the draft.

I agree about keeping enough dollars for the end to snatch those sleepers.

You wrote something that I have been thinking about: One thing I like to do is throw out mid level guys early and see what happens.

I usually nominate guys that I have no interest in hoping people spend a lot on them. However, I'm thinking that if you throw out the mid-level guys early, you might get a good deal because some people might hold on to their dollars for the top level guys.

 

[Ysatnaf_Gnik]

This is the best tip IMO....from MamboMambo in another thread:

"I came up with a simple excel solution for finding the Optimal Budget for your team to spend in a Auction Draft.

Instead of relying on intuition, we might as well use the Player Pool CSV file that can be exported from DD's projections based on your own league's setting in order to solve this problem analytically.

This are the simple steps necessary to get this done:

Excel Set up:

1) Once your league is set up in DD correctly with the projections you want to use, Export the Player Pool into a CSV file

2) Sort both these Columns in ascending order, First Column=DynAuction, Second Column=Points and rename the sheet to "Overall"

3) Move the Points Column to the right of the DynAuction Column (this is not needed, but will facilitate the use of the Vlookup function)

4) Move the Player Name Column to the right if the Points Column (this is not needed, but will facilitate the use of the Vlookup function)

5) Add a worksheet to the workbook, this will be your Budget Sheet (call

6) I would add 4 columns, Position / Player Name / Budget / Next Closest Salary / Points. Make sure you add the totals for the Budget and Points column.

7) In each Row under the Position Column, add the starting positions. i.e= QB1, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc....

8) Enter some dummy Values for each position under Budget to make sure it works correctly later

Excel VLookups:

9) For Each Position under the Next Closest Salary use a Vlookup formula to look at the next highest corresponding salary amount in the “Overall” Tab that is under the Budget # for this position.

10) Do the same thing for the Points Column. Use a Vlookup formula to look at the Points Column in the “Overall” Tab that corresponds to the Next Closest Salary # for this position.

11) Do the same thing for the Player Name Column. Use a Vlookup formula to look at the Player Name Column in the “Overall” Tab that corresponds to the Points # for this position.

12) Now the model is ready. Please note that you could combine steps 9-11 into one formula, but I prefer to separate it in order to see the corresponding values.

You could stop here if you are not familiar with the Evolver Function or are not Excel inclined.... You can just use trial error by changing the Budget #’s for each position to Maximize the Total Points Column.

Solver Function: FORGET ABOUT USING SOLVER....USE EVOLVER INSTEAD

FOrget Solver. DOWNLOAD a free trial of the Excel Add-in EVOLVER from Palisades. This is like SOLVER on Steroids. You can use the fully functional free trial for 15 days...plenty of time to get your model going.

The problem with Excel’s Solver is the “hill climbing” issue. What Evolver will do is run thousands of iterations of combinations of solutions in order to find the best overall answer by exploring the entire universe of possible answers. Just to give you an idea, my Run last night took 29 minutes!!!

In 29 Minutes I had found the MOST optimal solution. If you know how to use Solver, Evolver is a piece of cake. Similar, but more powerful set up.

I guarantee you will be impressed.

16) w00t.gif WOW!! …Evolver took 29 minutes to find the optimal budgeting solution to my League . You now have found the optimal budget solution. Not only each position will show the corresponding Max Budget allocated to it, but it will also show who is the best player that fit that particular budget.

17) Have fun in your Auction!!

Mambo Mambo "

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=evolver

 

[the turnip]

The biggest help I have encountered is knowing your league. If it's an ESPN or mass on-line kind of thing they almost always have listed or suggested values. I rarely see owners stray tremendously form those figures. Maybe a little on early RB's but then they stick pretty close to the norm. This allows you to, ahead of time, search out bargains if they have someone ranked too low and conversely gives you a list of nominee's on players you feel will go for more than their actual worth.

My home league has been auctioning for over 10 years and the guppy pool has dried up. I tried to get an edge by cataloging salaries each year in an attempt to get a feel for what players would cost this year. That came crashing down about two years ago when main stream fanatasy mags starting printing suggested auction values. Thankfully most of the owners all gravitate towards one major mag and by picking that one up myself I have a solid idea what players will cost this year.

I think part of the major appeal of auctions is that are so fluid and unpredictable. Unfortunately that same mercurial quality means that you can't really nail down specific plans. Here are a few of the things I have learned about my particular auctioning opponents.

1) The bargains are to be found just after the 1st wave of high priced big name players go, maaybe 10 or 20 nominees in. Waiting till late hoarding your cash because players are going for slightly higher prices than you anticipated is the kiss of death. You end up over bidding, spending close to what you should have paid for the better players, against other owners who have hoarded their money.

2) I have rough guidelines for players and positions but I am not afraid to pay a few bucks more to land the players I want.

3) Get involved with bidding on players you don't want, but only at prices that you still be happy with if all of a sudden the bidding dies and you land him.

4) I put aside 5% of my salary at the very start to hold in reserve to make I land my sleepers.

I sure hope the "perfect auction" article lands soon!

 

[BigRed]

Appreciated Red, but I just took a quick peek through the page that the search linked to (which I di as well), and am I to understand that auctions just aren't a big deal in here? All but two of those are "Do you want to be in my league?" "I have MBIII for $15, should I keep him?" Tillmanisahero's was heading toward what I was looking for (could have tacked on to that and bumped I guess ). but I just thought speaking of actual theories would be nice.

Auctions are still more of a "niche" - surprising since everyone I've ever talked to who's done it prefers it. Resistance to change I guess. Anyway - There are several threads there discussing general auction strats/etc and I didn't see a point re-stating stuff or continuing on w/another; that's why I gave the link (1 or 2 should have some thoughts from me as well FWIW). Suggest grabbing one of those and tacking on.

 

[butcher boy]

Yeah I don't know why auctions aren't more popular. They truly are the best way to draft.

I've done auctions for about 10 years now and one thing I've learned is that setting some kind of hard cap or percentage for a player or position is rarely a good idea because of the unpredictable nature of auctions. Some years I notice the top RBs going for 45-50% of the cap, then other years they jump to 60% of the cap. You have to be able to adjust player values on the fly depending on the nature of your particular auction. Some random tips:

- Don't sit back too long and let other people take all of the big name RBs. Let a couple of them get bought and see where the average price is. Take the next one that is reasonably close to it but try not to wait for the last first round RB to come up. I've seen Marshawn Lynch type players go for more than the LdT's or AP's simply because they were the last of the big name RBs to go and people were desparate.

- Be careful passing on players because you have your eye on one particular player who has slipped from being nominated. Chances are, other owners are doing the same thing, and if you get outbid you'll be stuck wishing you hadn't passed up previous values.

- Every once in a while take a look at your roster and see if it's the same kind of team you could have drafted in a snake auction. For example, if you are able to identify 1 player with a round 1 ADP, one with a round 2 ADP, and so on, I'd be willing to bet you have a really good team. There could also be examples where you have 2 round 1 ADP players, and then the next best is a round 3 or 4 ADP player. This is ok too, but DON'T be the chump who passes on all the good players, all the while shaking his head thinking he's awesome for saving his money. Then, he ends up with Lamont Jordan as his #1 RB and half of his cap money unspent. Yeah, thanks for playing, dude.

 

[roadkill1292]

You wrote something that I have been thinking about: One thing I like to do is throw out mid level guys early and see what happens.

In my local 16-teamer, bringing out quality tight ends very early often results in a weird frenzy of overpaying. I don't understand the psychology of it but it happens.There is a new Maryland FBG auction league happening Aug. 17. Perhaps there will be some interesting post-auction talk on this board afterward, especially since Jeff Pasquino is in it.

 

[BigRed]

Yeah I don't know why auctions aren't more popular. They truly are the best way to draft.I've done auctions for about 10 years now and one thing I've learned is that setting some kind of hard cap or percentage for a player or position is rarely a good idea because of the unpredictable nature of auctions. Some years I notice the top RBs going for 45-50% of the cap, then other years they jump to 60% of the cap. You have to be able to adjust player values on the fly depending on the nature of your particular auction. Some random tips:- Don't sit back too long and let other people take all of the big name RBs. Let a couple of them get bought and see where the average price is. Take the next one that is reasonably close to it but try not to wait for the last first round RB to come up. I've seen Marshawn Lynch type players go for more than the LdT's or AP's simply because they were the last of the big name RBs to go and people were desparate.- Be careful passing on players because you have your eye on one particular player who has slipped from being nominated. Chances are, other owners are doing the same thing, and if you get outbid you'll be stuck wishing you hadn't passed up previous values. - Every once in a while take a look at your roster and see if it's the same kind of team you could have drafted in a snake auction. For example, if you are able to identify 1 player with a round 1 ADP, one with a round 2 ADP, and so on, I'd be willing to bet you have a really good team. There could also be examples where you have 2 round 1 ADP players, and then the next best is a round 3 or 4 ADP player. This is ok too, but DON'T be the chump who passes on all the good players, all the while shaking his head thinking he's awesome for saving his money. Then, he ends up with Lamont Jordan as his #1 RB and half of his cap money unspent. Yeah, thanks for playing, dude.

All good points, good post.Although anyone paying 40% + for any one player is IMO a fool. And lmao @ 60%.

 

[bentley]

Yeah I don't know why auctions aren't more popular. They truly are the best way to draft.

I've done auctions for about 10 years now and one thing I've learned is that setting some kind of hard cap or percentage for a player or position is rarely a good idea because of the unpredictable nature of auctions. Some years I notice the top RBs going for 45-50% of the cap, then other years they jump to 60% of the cap. You have to be able to adjust player values on the fly depending on the nature of your particular auction. Some random tips:

- Don't sit back too long and let other people take all of the big name RBs. Let a couple of them get bought and see where the average price is. Take the next one that is reasonably close to it but try not to wait for the last first round RB to come up. I've seen Marshawn Lynch type players go for more than the LdT's or AP's simply because they were the last of the big name RBs to go and people were desparate.

- Be careful passing on players because you have your eye on one particular player who has slipped from being nominated. Chances are, other owners are doing the same thing, and if you get outbid you'll be stuck wishing you hadn't passed up previous values.

- Every once in a while take a look at your roster and see if it's the same kind of team you could have drafted in a snake auction. For example, if you are able to identify 1 player with a round 1 ADP, one with a round 2 ADP, and so on, I'd be willing to bet you have a really good team. There could also be examples where you have 2 round 1 ADP players, and then the next best is a round 3 or 4 ADP player. This is ok too, but DON'T be the chump who passes on all the good players, all the while shaking his head thinking he's awesome for saving his money. Then, he ends up with Lamont Jordan as his #1 RB and half of his cap money unspent. Yeah, thanks for playing, dude.

I so got burned on this one last year. Thanks, Roy Williams.Also, I think that the fact that every auction is different makes it tough to discuss strategy. We've been doing auction for several years. And it's well established that people hate paying for QBs. For example, Peyton Manning went for less than Thomas Jones last year. That may or may not apply to your league.

 

[pollardsvision]

this year i'm going to nominate players i'm interested in earlier.

in previous years, i usually nominate players i don't want throughout the 1st half of the auction, to try to get other teams spending money.

this year, i plan on trying to nominate all the $10-$20 type players that i'm interested right off the bat. the main reason for this, is that i think it will help me determine the proper direction i should go earlier. there are always guys that i think could make nice RB 2-4 and WR 2-4 guys that i think will be bargains. usually, my team is mostly set by the time i get to alot of those guys and i'm not really able to fully take advantage of bargains that i find. hopefully, it'll help prevent the "if i had known i could get _____ so cheaply, i wouldn't have spent the money on _______ " thoughts from happening later on. knowing this information earlier would be helpful when making big ticket purchases.

i don't know how much sense all that makes, but i'm going try to nominate my midprice guys that i'd like to get much earlier this year. it would be like, in a snake draft, if you knew for sure who your 5th and 6th round picks were before making your selections in the 2nd and 3rd round. hopefully, it'll allow me to more effective.

 

[Pictus Cat]

I tried my first auction at ESPN this year,

and thoroughly enjoyed it.

I would like to take some of my leagues to it,

but the main problem is the 30 second nomination/draft when everyone is down to $1.

How do you pre-rank players in the ESPN software to find them quickly?

 

[Dan Fouts]

- Every once in a while take a look at your roster and see if it's the same kind of team you could have drafted in a snake auction. For example, if you are able to identify 1 player with a round 1 ADP, one with a round 2 ADP, and so on, I'd be willing to bet you have a really good team. There could also be examples where you have 2 round 1 ADP players, and then the next best is a round 3 or 4 ADP player. This is ok too, but DON'T be the chump who passes on all the good players, all the while shaking his head thinking he's awesome for saving his money. Then, he ends up with Lamont Jordan as his #1 RB and half of his cap money unspent. Yeah, thanks for playing, dude.

I'll disagree with this one. Sort of. In the past, I have built my teams around mostly "3rd and 4th rounders" and skipped paying the premiums for the "1st and 2nd rounders". The final results rarely look anything like a team I would have been able to put together in a snake draft. Then again, that's what makes an auction such a beautiful thing - most of the time.

 

[roadkill1292]

Although anyone paying 40% + for any one player is IMO a fool. And lmao @ 60%.

In a big league with small auction day rosters, it's pretty normal for a few elite RBs to cost more than 45% of an owner's cap. I personally don't like putting all of my eggs in one basket but if an owner who spent 50% of his budget on LT can also pick up a cheap gem who outperforms his salary (and this happens all the time), he can be tough to beat.

Also, I think that the fact that every auction is different makes it tough to discuss strategy.

Indeed. Maybe it's because the nomination order is so unpredictable and yet remains such a large factor in player pricing. I have one owner in my local league who swears that Andre Rison being nominated first some years ago -- and his subsequent purchase of said dud -- ruined his entire auction. Of course, he was drinking heavily. But we've never let him forget this.

 

[inca911]

Here are some articles from the articles forum archive:

http://www.footballguys.com/articles.htm

Dodds' Perfect Auction article of 8/24

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0...fectauction.php

Tremblay's Auction Pricing article of 8/23

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0...tionpricing.php

Johnson's Auction Calcs article of 8/30 (this one is mine)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0...e_johnson01.php

Creating fixed percentages to pay for various positions is a really bad idea. When everyone is overpaying for QBs, you should be happy to ignore your percentages, take a cheaper QB, and win the league by having better players at the other positions. Sticking to fixed percentages does nothing to help build a team with maximum value. Auctions require an adaptive approach.

 

[Pictus Cat]

I tried my first auction at ESPN this year,and thoroughly enjoyed it.I would like to take some of my leagues to it,but the main problem is the 30 second nomination/draft when everyone is down to $1.How do you pre-rank players in the ESPN software to find them quickly?

At 90 seconds, I can't keep up with the draft with outside software.A printable list is about it.At 30 seconds, I need the online draft software to pull up whos left in order of some ranking, preferably my prerankings.ESPN has them all over the place by the time everyones down to a $1.I was racing around just looking for a name I recognized.Three times I ran out of time and it picked up three backup/3rd string QBs.ESPN's Free Auction drafts could make it more popular.I will switch two of my leagues to it next year,if I can solve the problem of how to rank players.Do you just make all the not scrubs $2 & more favored $3 and use paper rankings?Anyone have any experience with this?