are you going to draft Arian Foster? (1 Viewer)

[Todd Andrews]

Lots of ninnies worried about silly stuff. Until I actually see a real fantasy decline in Foster, I am riding him like a mule on crack.

 

[silentcoach]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use. Well, I guess you CAN, but I rather not.

I already said he was top 6 on my board, so you can see that I do not hate him one bit .

Whoever is higher, draft him.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Drafting for the highest floor doesn't seem very sound to me.

 

[Amused to Death]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use.

Whoever is higher, draft him.

So you're not really wondering why? Otherwise I agree with you. The problem may still exist. It may not. But there's no need to "wonder why it was". No, he wasn't hurt. The right side of his line sucked.

 

[silentcoach]

Drafting for the highest floor doesn't seem very sound to me.

Read the rest or edited version of my post....I think it was incomplete at first.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Drafting for the highest floor doesn't seem very sound to me.

It is when you have a top 5 pick.

 

[silentcoach]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use.

Whoever is higher, draft him.

So you're not really wondering why? Otherwise I agree with you. The problem may still exist. It may not. But there's no need to "wonder why it was". No, he wasn't hurt. The right side of his line sucked.

I guess you're right. I am just including the stats in my data and internally wondering what happened, but not letting it affect the way I create floors and ceilings.

 

[Amused to Death]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use.

Whoever is higher, draft him.

So you're not really wondering why? Otherwise I agree with you. The problem may still exist. It may not. But there's no need to "wonder why it was". No, he wasn't hurt. The right side of his line sucked.

I guess you're right. I am just including the stats in my data and internally wondering what happened, but not letting it affect the way I create floors and ceilings.

What if they fixed the line problems? All else equal, wouldn't that affect his production? Ignoring the reasons why seems narrow-minded to me.

 

[HairySasquatch]

My rule of thumb for RBs is if I have two players closely rated, I'm going to go with youth or the guy who has more tread on the tires. This year I'm staying away from not only Foster, but players like Rice as well. In Auctions, I'm staying away from Peterson. Have I missed out on some great years from older backs over the years? The answer is yes and no actually. By going with youth, I don't lose out on all of the points that a player like Foster gets....just the difference. Some times more, some times less. To me, and especially in this situation, going with youth is the safer pick.

Then later in the draft, I'm going to double down and target Tate. Two studs for the price of one if Foster gets knocked out. If he stays healthy for the whole season, I haven't lost anything other than a possible point per game played.

I'm confused. So which RB's are you targeting as RB1/RB2 and who will you draft with a top 5 pick?

I would draft Martin, Charles, Morris, Richardson, and Spiller. I don't have anyone who is younger for my RB2 this year....I will probably target Graham or top 5 WR in the second round. Then start stashing 3 to 4 guys in the David Wilson through Gio Bernard range and hope to find a gem. Last year I was able to draft Richardson, Martin, and Morris in that range.

The last 4 out of 5 years I have been drafting WR/WR in the first two rounds (We get to pick our draft spot by random selection and I have been picking towards the back....I haven't been lucky enough to get a top three spot). Then I have been hitting the running backs hard rounds 3 through 7. It has worked out rather well for me.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

If I couldn't get my hands on Peterson, I'd have absolutely no problem drafting Foster. I tried to steal him away from his owner in my keeper league just a week ago when that owner came after Cam Newton. I have no issues with his workload to date.

 

[silentcoach]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use.

Whoever is higher, draft him.

So you're not really wondering why? Otherwise I agree with you. The problem may still exist. It may not. But there's no need to "wonder why it was". No, he wasn't hurt. The right side of his line sucked.

I guess you're right. I am just including the stats in my data and internally wondering what happened, but not letting it affect the way I create floors and ceilings.

What if they fixed the line problems? All else equal, wouldn't that affect his production? Ignoring the reasons why seems narrow-minded to me.

This is taken into account when creating the ceiling.

Average the floor and ceiling and I get a stat line I am comfortable with using.

 

[jsharlan]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use. Well, I guess you CAN, but I rather not.

I already said he was top 6 on my board, so you can see that I do not hate him one bit .

Whoever is higher, draft him.

Perhaps its your wording. If you said the Texans didn't do much to address the offensive line, therefore there is potential the blocking could be subpar and bring down Foster's numbers, I think everyone could buy into it. But when all everyone keeps saying is he has a bazillion carries over three years and his ypc is going down, he's gonna break down! Its rather inaccurate and makes it obvious you haven't actually watched him play.

 

[silentcoach]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use. Well, I guess you CAN, but I rather not.

I already said he was top 6 on my board, so you can see that I do not hate him one bit .

Whoever is higher, draft him.

Perhaps its your wording. If you said the Texans didn't do much to address the offensive line, therefore there is potential the blocking could be subpar and bring down Foster's numbers, I think everyone could buy into it. But when all everyone keeps saying is he has a bazillion carries over three years and his ypc is going down, he's gonna break down! Its rather inaccurate and makes it obvious you haven't actually watched him play.

Perhaps, but I keep reiterating that the stats should be used to create a floor, just the floor. Use whatever you think is reasonable for his ceiling. Average the two....there is your prediction.

To just say "well, if you saw the game, you know he's still an epic running back" completely ignores his floor that has shown he is capable of 4.0 or 4.1 ypc and 5.4 yards per reception; for whatever reason he got those stats, he earned them. Again, we are just making a floor, no big hoopla.

 

[(HULK)]

I feel I'd take him at #2 and be estactic if he was there at 4.

 

[Shutout]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use. Well, I guess you CAN, but I rather not.

I already said he was top 6 on my board, so you can see that I do not hate him one bit .

Whoever is higher, draft him.

Perhaps its your wording. If you said the Texans didn't do much to address the offensive line, therefore there is potential the blocking could be subpar and bring down Foster's numbers, I think everyone could buy into it. But when all everyone keeps saying is he has a bazillion carries over three years and his ypc is going down, he's gonna break down! Its rather inaccurate and makes it obvious you haven't actually watched him play.

Perhaps, but I keep reiterating that the stats should be used to create a floor, just the floor. Use whatever you think is reasonable for his ceiling. Average the two....there is your prediction.

To just say "well, if you saw the game, you know he's still an epic running back" completely ignores his floor that has shown he is capable of 4.0 or 4.1 ypc and 5.4 yards per reception; for whatever reason he got those stats, he earned them. Again, we are just making a floor, no big hoopla.

Ok, several of us have already explained this but since you want to know his floor, here's his floor:

In PPR leagues he has been a starter for 3 years. In those years:

2010- #1 Rb. #2 was 90 points behind him.

2011-#4 Rb. Missed 3 games. Had the highest PPG of all RBs. #2 Rb was 5 points above him. #4 Rb was 40 below him.

2012-#3 Rb. #2 Rb was 4 points above him and #3 Rb was 20 points below him.

So, you know his floor. If his line gets overhauled like it does last year and his backup misses time and he has to carry all the garbage carries or if he misses games, he tend to be the cut off point at the bootom of the elite tier by at least 20 points and misses out being the #2 guy by about 5 points. If he plays all games, he runs away with it. That is his floor.

Why don't we try this a different way? Since you keep saying he is a top 6 guy, why don't you tell us who the top 5 are and apply all these concerns fairly to the others and show us why the other 5 are better? I think that would be interesting, especially since you said about 20 posts ago that You knock Foster down because you can see his history of having a down year (which if down year to 4.0 ypc =#3 rb, I really don't know who can possibly have a better measureable history) but at the same time you don't Richardson down at all for having a 3.6 ypc because he has no history. That makes no sense to me. You talk data and numbers to create floors but you only criticize the players with actual history and data? The rest get a pass? I gues by that logic Ryan Williams is one of your top 5 too because he hasn't played enough to show us he sucks. Only the guys that have played enough to finish top 4 for three straight years earn the right to be picked on for having the gaul to slip from being the RB that outscored all others by 90 to becoming the guy that could barely finish 4th.

Let's see that top 5 list.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I'm seeing this stuff so much that I really wonder if some of you guys actually are believing this or if you are fishing to try to get the perception of Foster down so you can snag him. Instead of this speculaiton about "Oh my GOD, so many carries, YPC is plummenting", why don't we talk about some facts.

-The guy is 26 years old. 26 year old athletes can do a lot and bounce back pretty quickly.

-He is THE key piece that his entire offense's principles are built around.

Normally, in FF, these are the guys that everyone drools to try to find but for some reason, people are actually holding that against Foster.

-He has about 20 more carries than Adrian Peterson over the last three years and about 60 maybe more than Rice in that span but for some reason that is detrimental to Foster yet people can't see anything except #1 for Peterson, despite the fact that history clearly tells us that when a back has a 2000 yard season, only twice in the history of the NFL has a RB came back the next year to play in all the games. So, everyone wants to cite history on the big carries to pull Foster down but they want to completely ignore that same information plus the additonal info re: 2k seasons when it is another player. And just for fun, let's ignore the fact that, for the career, the guy that no one ever seems to have a "concern" about is 2 years older, has 700+ more career carries on his tires.

-He played with an entirely new right hand side of his o-line last year and those players missed games during the year. Doesn't anyone think that when they look at his stats and see that his rushes to the right slid last year, that there might be a correlation there (production to right is less...players on the right injured and new...any connection?). We talk all the time about the horrible Cardinals line and the horrible Chargers line and we can see clearly how it affects those teams but somehow nobody notices this aspect with theTexans?

So if we can explain these things, then it must be production you guys are worried about, right? Well, he's been a top 1-4 Rb for about three years straight now; normally that is something people seek and not avoid in a young RB. People like production and consistency and youth...normally.

So maybe its more about quality from that position? Well, if someone told me that, from a RB, a pretty good day is either

- 150 rushing yards

-100+rushing yards with a TD

-or some rushing yards and 2 TDs

I would say, yeah, that's pretty good produciton no matter how you slice it because that puts me in that 18-20+ point range that top RBs produce.

Ok, so, if someone told me "Did you know that for the last three years, Arian Foster has led the league in that stat?" I would have to say, "well then, I guess he has been the type of guy I would want."

For reference, Foster hit that number 11 times last year while guys like Calvin hit it 6 times. In the last two seasons, Foster has hit that number about 70% of the time while guys like Peterson are well under 50%.

I didn't mean to turn this into a comparison against Peterson so much but did so just to show that, against what everyone considers to be the gold standard, Foster is right there, has been right there, and there is nothing in your crystal balls that indicate otherwise that doesn't also apply to the gold standard (and even more so towards the gold standard actually).

Yet, somehow, someway, people are hell bent on manufacturing the news instead of just observing it. Talkin about whether or not I would be interested in drafting Arian Foster? My God.

I don't use emoticons, seeing as I'm not a thirteen year old girl, but I was sorely tempted to break out the "Good Posting" one for this.

 

[Leonidas]

Drafting for the highest floor doesn't seem very sound to me.

Foster's ceiling is high enough, and Foster's floor is high enough, that if one were to draft him for having what they thought was the highest floor, there wouldn't be anything wrong or unsound about that.

You know the old saying that you can't win your league in the first rounds, but you can lose it? Drafting the high floor is a good way to not lose your league with that early pick. Hitting on those mid round picks isn't as great if your 2nd or 3rd overall guy flops.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Drafting for the highest floor doesn't seem very sound to me.

Foster's ceiling is high enough, and Foster's floor is high enough, that if one were to draft him for having what they thought was the highest floor, there wouldn't be anything wrong or unsound about that.

You know the old saying that you can't win your league in the first rounds, but you can lose it? Drafting the high floor is a good way to not lose your league with that early pick. Hitting on those mid round picks isn't as great if your 2nd or 3rd overall guy flops.

You need to assess and estimate the entire range of possibilities. If player A's floor is lower than player B, but player A has a 10% chance of hitting it and B has a 20% chance of hitting it and player A's ceiling is higher than B, you should choose A. It's not a matter of just looking at the floor and being safe.

 

[Leonidas]

Drafting for the highest floor doesn't seem very sound to me.

Foster's ceiling is high enough, and Foster's floor is high enough, that if one were to draft him for having what they thought was the highest floor, there wouldn't be anything wrong or unsound about that.

You know the old saying that you can't win your league in the first rounds, but you can lose it? Drafting the high floor is a good way to not lose your league with that early pick. Hitting on those mid round picks isn't as great if your 2nd or 3rd overall guy flops.

You need to assess and estimate the entire range of possibilities. If player A's floor is lower than player B, but player A has a 10% chance of hitting it and B has a 20% chance of hitting it and player A's ceiling is higher than B, you should choose A. It's not a matter of just looking at the floor and being safe.

Not if A's ceiling is only 1% higher than B's. IMO. But you didn't state how their ceilings compared, nor what their expected performance was.

And besides, when you start into things like this there is personal preference, position, location drafted, the rest of your team...etc

 

[SWC]

no because someone else will get him first which makes me really mad and want to break things with a flying ninja chop take that to the bank broninjas

 

[Shutout]

no because someone else will get him first which makes me really mad and want to break things with a flying ninja chop take that to the bank broninjas

LOL! I hope you're a man because you've missed every period you possibly could've had since I first saw you start posting.

 

[Leonidas]

The ignore feature doesn't work if people quote.

Just sayin'

 

[silentcoach]

They stats in isolation are not important. It is when you COMPARE them to what he has done in the past that makes you ponder--"hmm I wonder why that was."

Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster? I don't know, but you cannot simply ignore the number. Make your best educated guess as to what happened and then adjust accordingly IF you feel the need to.

However, when you combine (1) his workload (2) his decrease in yards per carry and (3) his huge decrease in yards per reception, it is NOT unreasonable to question that maybe something is happening and take that into account when you make your projections.

If you're still saying "hmm I wonder why that was", you're not reading the posts.

Incorrect. I am ONLY suggesting that you cannot GLOSS over the stats because you THINK you have the answer. Creating floors is half the battle in fantasy football predictions. If he has shown he can hit 4.0 or 4.1 ypr in the past, then he sure can do it again, so why not account for this when you make your predictions? You cannot just count on "the happy days."

People who watch the games gave very valid reasons for the decline in YPC. You said "Why did his yards per receptions go from 9.2 to 11.6....to 5.4? Is something wrong with Foster?" You can choose to use the numbers as a flag, but you shouldn't be wondering why it was. People are telling you why.

And I'm telling you those things happened, and can therefore happen again, so WHY NOT account for them when you create your floors?

There is no need to just say "well, let's ignore that, because X and X, and you know this year, X and X." Create a FLOOR for your worst situation using the data we have, and then see where he lands...do that for EVERY player and then see where they end up. Then create a ceiling... etc etc. You don't just create floors/ceiling for players cherry picking data you prefer to use. Well, I guess you CAN, but I rather not.

I already said he was top 6 on my board, so you can see that I do not hate him one bit .

Whoever is higher, draft him.

Perhaps its your wording. If you said the Texans didn't do much to address the offensive line, therefore there is potential the blocking could be subpar and bring down Foster's numbers, I think everyone could buy into it. But when all everyone keeps saying is he has a bazillion carries over three years and his ypc is going down, he's gonna break down! Its rather inaccurate and makes it obvious you haven't actually watched him play.

Perhaps, but I keep reiterating that the stats should be used to create a floor, just the floor. Use whatever you think is reasonable for his ceiling. Average the two....there is your prediction.

To just say "well, if you saw the game, you know he's still an epic running back" completely ignores his floor that has shown he is capable of 4.0 or 4.1 ypc and 5.4 yards per reception; for whatever reason he got those stats, he earned them. Again, we are just making a floor, no big hoopla.

Ok, several of us have already explained this but since you want to know his floor, here's his floor:

In PPR leagues he has been a starter for 3 years. In those years:

2010- #1 Rb. #2 was 90 points behind him.

2011-#4 Rb. Missed 3 games. Had the highest PPG of all RBs. #2 Rb was 5 points above him. #4 Rb was 40 below him.

2012-#3 Rb. #2 Rb was 4 points above him and #3 Rb was 20 points below him.

So, you know his floor. If his line gets overhauled like it does last year and his backup misses time and he has to carry all the garbage carries or if he misses games, he tend to be the cut off point at the bootom of the elite tier by at least 20 points and misses out being the #2 guy by about 5 points. If he plays all games, he runs away with it. That is his floor.

Why don't we try this a different way? Since you keep saying he is a top 6 guy, why don't you tell us who the top 5 are and apply all these concerns fairly to the others and show us why the other 5 are better? I think that would be interesting, especially since you said about 20 posts ago that You knock Foster down because you can see his history of having a down year (which if down year to 4.0 ypc =#3 rb, I really don't know who can possibly have a better measureable history) but at the same time you don't Richardson down at all for having a 3.6 ypc because he has no history. That makes no sense to me. You talk data and numbers to create floors but you only criticize the players with actual history and data? The rest get a pass? I gues by that logic Ryan Williams is one of your top 5 too because he hasn't played enough to show us he sucks. Only the guys that have played enough to finish top 4 for three straight years earn the right to be picked on for having the gaul to slip from being the RB that outscored all others by 90 to becoming the guy that could barely finish 4th.

Let's see that top 5 list.

no. just no, are you the type that goes "take away Martin's big games...and he sucks" because that is essentially what is going on here except in a reverse fashion--Trying to pretend last years below par (for him) rushing yards/attempts and receiving numbers did not happen--for whatever reason they happened. It may or may not be his fault. Foster's stats are there.He still did well because he is a TD beast and accumulated a lot of rushing attempts. He won't reach those attempts this year so who knows what his yards per rush will be. Maybe it's high, maybe it's low, maybe it's something in between. Will he repeat them? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. that is why we predict, so I'll add some of those ugly numbers to create a floor, and then ignore them when creating a ceiling. Magic.

To simply say "he has never been below X in the past, and therefore he won't this year" is propensity and worth little. I guess criminals should be found guilty of Crime B if they committed Crime B in the past, eh? . Maybe he is or maybe he isn't. To each their own.

...but I am done arguing.

Good luck this season.

My top 5 are as follows--ppr :

Peterson, Calvin, Charles, Martin, Foster.

You act like I have made Foster player #36 or something. Relax.

 

[ATSS_0100]

I would like to thank everyone for there comments. I probably should have labeled this thread "Where are you going to draft Foster?", rather than are you going to draft Foster?" I am actually higher on Foster than I was before thanks to you guys.

I would like to share this data, take it as you will. May sound foolish but I take it into consideration.

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/blog.cfm/fantasy-urban-legend-avoiding-rbs-with-325-carries

 

[silentcoach]

I would like to thank everyone for there comments. I probably should have labeled this thread "Where are you going to draft Foster?", rather than are you going to draft Foster?" I am actually higher on Foster than I was before thanks to you guys.

I would like to share this data, take it as you will. May sound foolish but I take it into consideration.

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/blog.cfm/fantasy-urban-legend-avoiding-rbs-with-325-carries

Oddly enough that site has Foster ranked rb #7 but I think it is mostly because he has not been in camp.

 

[Sweetness_34]

I'm seeing this stuff so much that I really wonder if some of you guys actually are believing this or if you are fishing to try to get the perception of Foster down so you can snag him. Instead of this speculaiton about "Oh my GOD, so many carries, YPC is plummenting", why don't we talk about some facts.

-The guy is 26 years old. 26 year old athletes can do a lot and bounce back pretty quickly.

-He is THE key piece that his entire offense's principles are built around.

Normally, in FF, these are the guys that everyone drools to try to find but for some reason, people are actually holding that against Foster.

-He has about 20 more carries than Adrian Peterson over the last three years and about 60 maybe more than Rice in that span but for some reason that is detrimental to Foster yet people can't see anything except #1 for Peterson, despite the fact that history clearly tells us that when a back has a 2000 yard season, only twice in the history of the NFL has a RB came back the next year to play in all the games. So, everyone wants to cite history on the big carries to pull Foster down but they want to completely ignore that same information plus the additonal info re: 2k seasons when it is another player. And just for fun, let's ignore the fact that, for the career, the guy that no one ever seems to have a "concern" about is 2 years older, has 700+ more career carries on his tires.

-He played with an entirely new right hand side of his o-line last year and those players missed games during the year. Doesn't anyone think that when they look at his stats and see that his rushes to the right slid last year, that there might be a correlation there (production to right is less...players on the right injured and new...any connection?). We talk all the time about the horrible Cardinals line and the horrible Chargers line and we can see clearly how it affects those teams but somehow nobody notices this aspect with theTexans?

So if we can explain these things, then it must be production you guys are worried about, right? Well, he's been a top 1-4 Rb for about three years straight now; normally that is something people seek and not avoid in a young RB. People like production and consistency and youth...normally.

So maybe its more about quality from that position? Well, if someone told me that, from a RB, a pretty good day is either

- 150 rushing yards

-100+rushing yards with a TD

-or some rushing yards and 2 TDs

I would say, yeah, that's pretty good produciton no matter how you slice it because that puts me in that 18-20+ point range that top RBs produce.

Ok, so, if someone told me "Did you know that for the last three years, Arian Foster has led the league in that stat?" I would have to say, "well then, I guess he has been the type of guy I would want."

For reference, Foster hit that number 11 times last year while guys like Calvin hit it 6 times. In the last two seasons, Foster has hit that number about 70% of the time while guys like Peterson are well under 50%.

I didn't mean to turn this into a comparison against Peterson so much but did so just to show that, against what everyone considers to be the gold standard, Foster is right there, has been right there, and there is nothing in your crystal balls that indicate otherwise that doesn't also apply to the gold standard (and even more so towards the gold standard actually).

Yet, somehow, someway, people are hell bent on manufacturing the news instead of just observing it. Talkin about whether or not I would be interested in drafting Arian Foster? My God.

You suck and I hate you. Can you please keep these things to yourself so I can get Foster in as many drafts as possible. Just last week I had the 5th spot in a FBGPC draft and the morons in my draft let Foster fall to me. You can have Martin and Charles and Calvin.... I will take Foster every single time.

 

[pizzatyme]

I think it's reasonable to expect a decrease in touches this season for Foster. I also expect a rise in YPC due to having Hopkins as a real threat on the outside. I feel like it will keep the safeties honest and not allow them to cheat the box.

Foster is top 6 easy IMO, Tate is a great cuff for expected floor and possible ceiling.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

More than likely at #1. Decision is between Foster and AD. No one else except perhaps Calvin belongs in the discussion.

 

[pizzatyme]

More than likely at #1. Decision is between Foster and AD. No one else except perhaps Calvin belongs in the discussion.

I love the players you mentioned but I wouldn't go that far.

I actually have Charles at #2 and

 

[Badgers Fan]

Foster had 29 carries inside the 5 yard line. 2nd most was 16. It's fairly hard to gain yards inside the 5 yard line. If Foster was to show decline, then he would've started wearing down late in the year, right? 4.7 ypc the last 5 games. Foster was put in a lot of obvious run situations. Whether that happens again or not remains to be seen, but it certainly hurt his production. Also, the team has made a massive upgrade at fullback with Greg Jones. Fullbacks don't play much more than half the game (if that), but I think that Jones + the line growing (that right side is very young and it stands to reason they can improving) should lead to an increase in ypc. So what if he "only" gets 315 or so carries? With his extreme likelyhood of 10+ td's, he's still a top 5 rb. Yes, I am concerned and will likely waste my 8th/9th round pick on Tate, but if Foster plays 16 games I'd bet his ypc increases. From his bye until the fantasy finals (Week 16) he faces Colts twice, Cards, Raiders, Jags Twice, Patriots. 6 of those 7 teams he's either had a lot of success against, or it's a team his team should have good leads and a lot of running to get done. At the end of the day, it's a month before the season and as long as he's ready for pre-season game #3 this is no reason to really be scared off. Charles and Spiller are slender backs. McCoy has never played 16 games. T-Rich has his injury concerns. Why is Foster the one everyone jumps on? Maybe I'll go down with the ship, but I'm staying the course and hoping for a 4th straight semi-finals or better with Foster.

 

[Dez]

I got Foster at pick 7 last night in my FPC on air live draft. No one wants this guy this year every magazine every site has him busting as a 1st round pick.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I got Foster at pick 7 last night in my FPC on air live draft. No one wants this guy this year every magazine every site has him busting as a 1st round pick.

It's madness. We are supposed to believe that the lead RBs for bad teams like the Bills and Browns are gonna be ultra-studs, but a proven top performer like Foster- who's on a playoff team, is a great 3-down back AND is guaranteed a lot of touches - is gonna bust? Sure, okay. Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, and you correctly predict an injury for Foster, picking him to bust makes almost no sense to me.

 

[pizzatyme]

The Colts run defense will be much improved this season so I wouldn't be banking on Foster's production as a gimme there.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Foster is matchup-proof. Don't believe me, look up his games over the last three years. Good defenses, bad defenses....he tears almost all of them up, except for the very occasional bad game (like week 16 against the Vikings last year). Plus, he scores a ton, so he is a guy who can be held somewhat in check, yet still somehow find a way to score once or twice, like in the GB game last year.

 

[Dez]

They are predicting a breakdown I just bought Rotoworld magazine and they have a picture of Foster in the lower right corner with a caption of "FOSTER : Breakdown coming ?"

3 years of big usage, a lot of extra playoff carries, YPC going down, Taking 2 months to recover from a calf injury, heart ailment that forced him out of last year's week 16 game.

Those are what most site and I can't say I am not concerned because I am, have Foster in 3 dynasty leagues plus a few more redraft.

 

[menobrown]

His floor is same as everyone else, zero. That's what you get when you don't play and it's fair to be at least concerned that could be an issue at times with him this season. And even if he does play all 16 games his past performance is not indicative of his floor as players do regress.

He's a conundrum to me. Like many people I have him as my first round bust. Yet his past production, consistency and schedule are obviously very appealing. So for me there comes a time and place I'd put my own feelings of him being most likely to bust and concede I could be wrong and start looking at him. So far every draft I've done this year that's never quite come up since only time he's been available when I was OTC was pick 2 and I had options I liked more.

 

[silentcoach]

I got Foster at pick 7 last night in my FPC on air live draft. No one wants this guy this year every magazine every site has him busting as a 1st round pick.

I agree, busting is harsh. He will still be a beast because he is a TD machine-- I just have a higher ceiling for Charles this year purely on ppr and sos.

I think pick 5 or 6 this year is the best, and it sucks to have the second, third, or fourth pick. Any of the top 5 or 6 rbs are okay in my book.

However, when you are stuck picking at 2 or 3, then you have to be a little more picky and decide if you want Foster or some other back (or Calvin). To each their own. It is not an insult to pass on Foster at pick 2 or 3.

 

[Eminence]

Hell yes, every chance that I get. I did the same thing with Adrian Peterson last-year. People try to find reasons to pick the sexy new toy (Doug Martin) over players with proven production.

I have no fears of a 26 year old's body breaking down, especially not with Foster's running style. If you guys pass on him, I will easily scoop up the value just like I did with Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson last year.

 

[silentcoach]

Hell yes, every chance that I get. I did the same thing with Adrian Peterson last-year. People try to find reasons to pick the sexy new toy (Doug Martin) over players with proven production.

I have no fears of a 26 year old's body breaking down, especially not with Foster's running style. If you guys pass on him, I will easily scoop up the value just like I did with Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson last year.

Obviously. But what is your move when you pick 2. It is easy to make him the pick when you have pick 5,6 or if people mistakenly let him drop further. At pick 2, you have to be more picky and decide who it is YOU want. It is no longer a "value play" to take Foster at 2 because you'd be taking him where he "should" be going.

I agree with the rest of your post.

 

[menobrown]

I got Foster at pick 7 last night in my FPC on air live draft. No one wants this guy this year every magazine every site has him busting as a 1st round pick.

It's madness. We are supposed to believe that the lead RBs for bad teams like the Bills and Browns are gonna be ultra-studs, but a proven top performer like Foster- who's on a playoff team, is a great 3-down back AND is guaranteed a lot of touches - is gonna bust? Sure, okay. Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, and you correctly predict an injury for Foster, picking him to bust makes almost no sense to me.

How good a team is has little to nothing to do with how good a fantasy RB is and your pretty much just described Trent Richardson when you referenced a 3 down back who is guaranteed a lot of touches.

Injuries are a primary concern for Foster possibly being a bust but it's not all either. He seemed to get a second wind in the playoffs last year but he just looked tired in the a lot of games in the second half last year. The other item that has me a little concerned his is role in the passing game. If you want to be positive about him you can point to his increased second half usage and large role in passing game in the playoffs. The negative side being he only had 11 catches in the first half of the season last year and what I find more of an issue is it's the third year in a row his pass catching took a noticeable slide downward. My experience with viewing RB pass catching stats is barring a new team or system change when the pass catching numbers start to go down they typically continue in the downward cycle....and yes I've heard Foster comment recently one of his goals is to be a 1,000 yard receiver in a season.

Personally I'd love to know why his role in the passing game was so low last year in the first half of the season. Was it by design? Did it increase only out of need when other factors ranging from his ability to produce consistent running yardage or just not having another reliable second option in the passing game especially when Owen Daniels got nicked up and went into his down multi-week slide in the second half? So I don't know the reasons but for me I don't see the fact it looks like they finally added a legit second option at WR as propping up Fosters lagging pass catching totals.

 

[Goldfinger007]

Arian Foster (calf, back) didn't return to the practice field Sunday as he was expected to do. Foster is dealing with a sore back now, in addition to his two-plus-month calf strain. "Expected him out there today," coach Gary Kubiak said, "but it didn't happen." Foster has yet to put on pads this summer, and he's fallen short of every timetable set by the Texans' coaches and medical staff. Fantasy owners underestimating Foster's glaring injury and workload red flags could be in for a rude awakening after drafts. The Texans travel to Minnesota for their first preseason game on Friday night. Foster won't be active. Aug 4 - 11:27 AM

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5469/arian-foster

 

[Eminence]

Hell yes, every chance that I get. I did the same thing with Adrian Peterson last-year. People try to find reasons to pick the sexy new toy (Doug Martin) over players with proven production.

I have no fears of a 26 year old's body breaking down, especially not with Foster's running style. If you guys pass on him, I will easily scoop up the value just like I did with Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson last year.

Obviously. But what is your move when you pick 2. It is easy to make him the pick when you have pick 5,6 or if people mistakenly let him drop further. At pick 2, you have to be more picky and decide who it is YOU want. It is no longer a "value play" to take Foster at 2 because you'd be taking him where he "should" be going.

I agree with the rest of your post.

Still, at 2 you have to take a long look at Foster. We've still got about a month before Kickoff Week 1 and we might see Foster "magically recover" because he himself doesn't want to miss any playing time. Even if he is hurt, I think Foster is the kind of guy who can play through it efficiently.

But if you're hellbent on avoiding Foster, grab CJ Spiller or Trent Richardson. Age, opportunity, and talent are all there.

 

[T with T]

He has just a good of chance at being a bust as anyone else if not more! I don't have him or AP in my top 5 RB!

list your top 5 I wanna see this.

 

[jsharlan]

Just got him with the 15th overall pick in a 2QB PPR redraft.

 

[We Tigers]

Hell yes, every chance that I get. I did the same thing with Adrian Peterson last-year. People try to find reasons to pick the sexy new toy (Doug Martin) over players with proven production.

I have no fears of a 26 year old's body breaking down, especially not with Foster's running style. If you guys pass on him, I will easily scoop up the value just like I did with Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson last year.

Obviously. But what is your move when you pick 2. It is easy to make him the pick when you have pick 5,6 or if people mistakenly let him drop further. At pick 2, you have to be more picky and decide who it is YOU want. It is no longer a "value play" to take Foster at 2 because you'd be taking him where he "should" be going.

I agree with the rest of your post.

I'd absolutely take him at pick 2. People take Adrian Peterson #1 because they know that even if he doesn't put up actual best-in-the-league numbers, he's going to be in the top 3. Foster has shown a similar success rate the past three years. I like Charles and Martin quite a bit too, but I'm more confident about Foster finishing top 3 than I am them, even if I know they might have 2000 YFS potential this year.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Arian Foster (calf, back) didn't return to the practice field Sunday as he was expected to do. Foster is dealing with a sore back now, in addition to his two-plus-month calf strain. "Expected him out there today," coach Gary Kubiak said, "but it didn't happen." Foster has yet to put on pads this summer, and he's fallen short of every timetable set by the Texans' coaches and medical staff. Fantasy owners underestimating Foster's glaring injury and workload red flags could be in for a rude awakening after drafts. The Texans travel to Minnesota for their first preseason game on Friday night. Foster won't be active. Aug 4 - 11:27 AM

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5469/arian-foster

Classic vet move to miss training camp. "My calf still hurts." Okay come back in a week. "My back is sore. I need a few more days."

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

I'm picking 11th. If he's there you can bet you ### I'm picking him.

 

[Young 8]

Texans coach Gary Kubiak told reporters Sunday that Arian Foster (back, calf) will not be ready to practice Monday.
Kubiak revealed Foster's back pain "has gone into his legs." The team had hoped Foster would return Monday, but he's still not ready. He's been on the shelf since late May. The Texans have publicly stated they're simply holding out Foster as a precaution, but his inability to recover from supposedly minor injuries is concerning when compounded with his NFL-leading workload the past three years. Foster also led the league in 2012 rushing attempts. The Houston Chronicle's John McClain believes Foster will miss the entire preseason

John McClain of the Houston Chronicle expressed concern about Arian Foster's (back, calf) Week 1 availability on Twitter Sunday.
"If I'm (coach Gary) Kubiak and Arian Foster has a back injury that's requiring injections and feeling pain in legs, I'm worried about him for opener," wrote McClain. At a Sunday presser, Kubiak revealed Foster's back pain "has gone into his legs," and doctors advised injections to alleviate it. "They tell me these injections take time," said Kubiak. "We're taking our time. ... The running back picture is concerning." Foster has missed every timeline to return to practice the Texans' coaches and medical staff have set in front of him. After three years of overuse, it's fair to wonder if Foster's body is breaking down

 

[GregR]

Now is the first I'm going to have concern about Foster. I think running backs need a couple of weeks to get used to getting hit again, used to avoiding and absorbing contact, to lessen injury risk. This was already to the point he needed the time he had left to get ready. If he doesn't start practicing, I'm concerned for an injury even assuming he does start the regular season.

 

[Pumpnick]

whats Tate's value now?