steelers1080
Footballguy
The Steelers have the flu, and I think we all know who gave it to them!
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AFCCG: Steelers at Patriots Discussion (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ghost Rider
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msommer
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
apalmer
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
We are going to need another Wells-Report.
Flugate.
Pats lose a 1st and 4th pick. Kraft pays $1m.
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Insoxicated
I don't think you can call losing a game witha 1 score line "Choking". Vegas makes them around 3pts better than the Steelers (as does Sagarin). If we're calling that a "Choke" then we're diluting the hell out of the term to the point it's effectively meaningless.
Stats are fun, but this is a 60/40 game at best IMO. Maybe 55/45. It's anyone's game.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
On the surface, no game in the past has any influence on any game in the future, nor does the result of one contest determine the outcome of another. However, I would say there are telltale signs in GAME X that can give us signs of potential outcomes of GAME X+1.
For example, if the best team in the league played the worst team in the league and the worst team won, reviewing some of the plays and numbers might show why that was and what might be expected in a rematch. If the QB on that worst team had a career day (400 passing yards, 3 TD's, no picks, maybe a rushing TD when he never runs) and the best team had 6 turnovers, that would help explain the final score.
In the rematch, a case could easily be made that the best team would not have 6 turnovers again and the worst team would not have a QB throw for 400 yards again. Similarly, if the best team had a ton of guys out with injuries while the other team was completely healthy, that could further explain the outcome. But if the better team won game after game and there were no outliers in things like turnovers, injuries, fluky plays, bad calls, etc., then we would be getting into things that moved from a single game outcome to a pattern or a repeatable trend.
Looking back at another situation with the Patriots (the butt fumble game), NE fans thought they had a free pass in the playoffs facing the Jets again in 2010 after they just crushed them a few weeks earlier 45-3. In that game, Sanchez and the Jets had 3 turnovers, Brady had 4 TD passes and a 148.9 passer rating. If that wasn't a red flag alert, the Jets had already beaten NE by 14 points that season and had beaten the Patriots each of the prior 2 seasons. The 45-3 shellacking was the anomaly.
Getting back to the Pats and Steelers over the years, there weren't clear reasons that we can point to as why the Steelers lost to NE. In fact, there are some games that if you look at the numbers, one would have expected PIT to have won. For example, you would think that if Ben had a game with 400 passing yards and 4 TD that Pittsburgh would have left the field victorious. Ben actually had such a game against NE . . . and lost by 24 points. Had the outcome been the other way, a case could be made that PIT winning by 24 points on the heels of a 400/4 performance, that would be unlikely to repeat itself. But having that line and LOSING by 24 points? That is pretty much unheard of.
There were 47 games in the last 21 years that a QB had a 400/4 stat line and their teams went 31-15-1. PIT losing to NE by 24 points was the greatest deficit. KC lost at DEN by 20 points in 2010 in a game where Matt Cassel went for 469-4-0 and KC only had 1 turnover. That’s another one of those WTF??? games.
In 4 of those PIT games with NE, the Steelers only turned the ball over once. (They did have a game with 3 TO's and another with 4, but NE had a game with 3 TO's). I don't remember who was out and didn't play in those games, but my point is there were no glaring reasons why NE won some of those games. Again as an example, people will point to this year's game and say Ben didn't play. That's a valid point . . . but I didn't even include that game in the games I looked at.
For example, if the best team in the league played the worst team in the league and the worst team won, reviewing some of the plays and numbers might show why that was and what might be expected in a rematch. If the QB on that worst team had a career day (400 passing yards, 3 TD's, no picks, maybe a rushing TD when he never runs) and the best team had 6 turnovers, that would help explain the final score.
In the rematch, a case could easily be made that the best team would not have 6 turnovers again and the worst team would not have a QB throw for 400 yards again. Similarly, if the best team had a ton of guys out with injuries while the other team was completely healthy, that could further explain the outcome. But if the better team won game after game and there were no outliers in things like turnovers, injuries, fluky plays, bad calls, etc., then we would be getting into things that moved from a single game outcome to a pattern or a repeatable trend.
Looking back at another situation with the Patriots (the butt fumble game), NE fans thought they had a free pass in the playoffs facing the Jets again in 2010 after they just crushed them a few weeks earlier 45-3. In that game, Sanchez and the Jets had 3 turnovers, Brady had 4 TD passes and a 148.9 passer rating. If that wasn't a red flag alert, the Jets had already beaten NE by 14 points that season and had beaten the Patriots each of the prior 2 seasons. The 45-3 shellacking was the anomaly.
Getting back to the Pats and Steelers over the years, there weren't clear reasons that we can point to as why the Steelers lost to NE. In fact, there are some games that if you look at the numbers, one would have expected PIT to have won. For example, you would think that if Ben had a game with 400 passing yards and 4 TD that Pittsburgh would have left the field victorious. Ben actually had such a game against NE . . . and lost by 24 points. Had the outcome been the other way, a case could be made that PIT winning by 24 points on the heels of a 400/4 performance, that would be unlikely to repeat itself. But having that line and LOSING by 24 points? That is pretty much unheard of.
There were 47 games in the last 21 years that a QB had a 400/4 stat line and their teams went 31-15-1. PIT losing to NE by 24 points was the greatest deficit. KC lost at DEN by 20 points in 2010 in a game where Matt Cassel went for 469-4-0 and KC only had 1 turnover. That’s another one of those WTF??? games.
In 4 of those PIT games with NE, the Steelers only turned the ball over once. (They did have a game with 3 TO's and another with 4, but NE had a game with 3 TO's). I don't remember who was out and didn't play in those games, but my point is there were no glaring reasons why NE won some of those games. Again as an example, people will point to this year's game and say Ben didn't play. That's a valid point . . . but I didn't even include that game in the games I looked at.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think those percentages might be on the low side. 538 says 70/30. ESPN has it 75/25. The experts at NFLPickWatch are picking NE at a 77/23 rate.
Whatever the percentages are won't impact the results on the field. It should be a good game.
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Insoxicated
Yeah... don't get me wrong. I LOVE all the stats chatter... and I realize I'm of the opinion this game is a lot closer than many others think. That's just my gut feel and is grounded in very limited analysis... which isn't worth much, objectively.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
I like these stats...
The last 3 times the Patriots had 3 turnovers in a playoff game and won, they lost their next game.
Pats played the easiest schedule of any team in the past 6 seasons.
The last 3 times the Patriots had 3 turnovers in a playoff game and won, they lost their next game.
Pats played the easiest schedule of any team in the past 6 seasons.
Funny how every Pats loss is a choke.
Sometimes a loss is just a loss.
It's not like NE has been Indy with Peyton and all those one and dones (lol).
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I was just going by all the stats that have been posted here. Going by those numbers the Steelers don't have much hope. Add in the fact that the Pats are favorites playing at home after getting a bye week and then a weak opponent as a tune-up game, with more time to prepare and, by the way, they have arguably the best coach and QB in the history of the NFL.
With all that going for them they better win the game.
Bossman
Footballguy
Ted Wells reporting that
"It's more probable than not that Belichick gave the Steelers the flu".
Finally thinking NE has a worthy opponent after playing HOU, MIA, RAMS, 49ers, :X ... but nope, ... this PIT team all got the flu.
This is ridiculous. Guess we'll have to wait 2 more weeks to have NE face a good team.
"It's more probable than not that Belichick gave the Steelers the flu".
Finally thinking NE has a worthy opponent after playing HOU, MIA, RAMS, 49ers, :X ... but nope, ... this PIT team all got the flu.
This is ridiculous. Guess we'll have to wait 2 more weeks to have NE face a good team.
While NE is at home and favored, there are many talking head "experts" out there picking PIT to win.
This isn't a slam dunk situation for NE. Not by a longshot.
Any steeler fan trying to position this game otherwise is just trying to provide themselves comfortable blankets to cuddle up with in the case of a loss.
PIT can win this game and I will not be surprised if they do.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Flu-Gate 2017 shouldn't have too much of an effect on the game. Hopefully whatever new game planning they add can be run today. And maybe if they're focused on throwing up they won't be posting on social media?
pats3in4
Footballguy
Pats sell out to stop Bell, put Butler on Brown with some help and dare Ben to beat them with his other targets. If Ben puts up points with those other guys doing the damage, they deserve any SB trip that results from it. The big drawback I see is that by playing run first, Ben will have time to find those other targets. If Ben is sharp, I can see a lot of sustained drives in which the Pats then are hoping for red zone stops. The only time I expect the Pats to bring heat is on obvious passing downs.
If this is the gameplan, I think any Pats fans shouting, "Where is the pass rush?!?" Sunday evening aren't paying attention.
If this is the gameplan, I think any Pats fans shouting, "Where is the pass rush?!?" Sunday evening aren't paying attention.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I sure hope not. I've seen teams done in by this sort of thing before. It's always a "non-issue" before the game and then the team comes out flat. I know the times I've had the flu in my life, I wasn't ready to even make a sandwich a couple of days into it, let alone play football. It's one of those things that can submarine a team, but if it gets mentioned, then it's "an excuse."
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I am not sure it is the same Pittsburgh bug but my son and his family went through this last weekend. His baby daughter got it Saturday morning, then it hit his 2 sons on Sunday, and then my daughter on Monday (she was playing with the kids over the weekend). My son & his wife never did get it.
The good news is if it is the same flu then it truly is a 24 hour thing -- they got over it very fast.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
pats3in4
Footballguy
From https://theringer.com/four-key-stats-for-nfl-conference-championship-weekend-e8bdef096ee9#.h8v0gohp4:
Pittsburgh Steelers
The stat: The defense posted a 19.9 percent DVOA vs. opposing no. 1 receivers.
Julian Edelman committed a playoff faux pas this week when he provided the Steelers with some bulletin board material, but maybe he knew he’d be able to back up the trash talk. The Steelers finished the regular season dead last in coverage against opponents’ no. 1 receivers, per Football Outsiders’ tracking.
The Pittsburgh defense gave up five catches for 77 yards to Travis Kelce last week and surrendered 11 catches for 102 yards in the wild-card round to Jarvis Landry. Terrelle Pryor caught seven passes for 94 yards in Week 17; Steve Smith went for seven catches, 79 yards, and a touchdown in Week 16; Brandon LaFell caught seven balls for 91 yards for an A.J. Green–less Bengals offense in Week 15; Sammy Watkins led all Buffalo receivers in Week 14 with four catches for 54 yards and a touchdown in heavy snow; and Odell Beckham caught 10 passes for 100 yards in Week 13.
Since Rob Gronkowski went down, Edelman has become New England’s no. 1 option, and he leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (98.3) since Week 9.He posted team highs in receptions (eight), targets (13), and receiving yards (137) against the Texans last week, and he’s likely to be a big part of the Patriots game plan again this week. Belichick and Brady have made their careers off of finding a vulnerability in a defense and exploiting it all game long.
A lot of the time, that means New England will reach into their bag of tricks to feature some part-time role player as the center of their offensive attack, but this time, it looks like one of New England’s strengths lines right up with Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The stat: The defense posted a 19.9 percent DVOA vs. opposing no. 1 receivers.
Julian Edelman committed a playoff faux pas this week when he provided the Steelers with some bulletin board material, but maybe he knew he’d be able to back up the trash talk. The Steelers finished the regular season dead last in coverage against opponents’ no. 1 receivers, per Football Outsiders’ tracking.
The Pittsburgh defense gave up five catches for 77 yards to Travis Kelce last week and surrendered 11 catches for 102 yards in the wild-card round to Jarvis Landry. Terrelle Pryor caught seven passes for 94 yards in Week 17; Steve Smith went for seven catches, 79 yards, and a touchdown in Week 16; Brandon LaFell caught seven balls for 91 yards for an A.J. Green–less Bengals offense in Week 15; Sammy Watkins led all Buffalo receivers in Week 14 with four catches for 54 yards and a touchdown in heavy snow; and Odell Beckham caught 10 passes for 100 yards in Week 13.
Since Rob Gronkowski went down, Edelman has become New England’s no. 1 option, and he leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (98.3) since Week 9.He posted team highs in receptions (eight), targets (13), and receiving yards (137) against the Texans last week, and he’s likely to be a big part of the Patriots game plan again this week. Belichick and Brady have made their careers off of finding a vulnerability in a defense and exploiting it all game long.
A lot of the time, that means New England will reach into their bag of tricks to feature some part-time role player as the center of their offensive attack, but this time, it looks like one of New England’s strengths lines right up with Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness.
steelers1080
Footballguy
It was called a 24-hour flu by Cobi Hamilton, and he's the one who said "Probably" 15 players were affected. It's probably just a bad cold or stomach bug. It didn't sound like full fledged flu.
Either way, I hope we defer because I don't foresee that first drive going well.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since each team last lost (and excluding the PIT JV vs. CLE game) . . .
NEW ENGLAND
Passing
Player Cmp Att Yds TD Int
Tom Brady 188 304 2206 18 3
Jimmy Garoppolo 1 3 6 0 0
PITTSBURGH
Player Cmp Att Yds TD Int
Big Ben 156 241 1883 11 9
Landry Jones 0 1 0 0 0
For starters, Bell's numbers are just flat out INSANE. He's had 254 touches, 1,431 yfs, and 9 TD IN HALF A SEASON'S WORTH OF GAMES! Yet he barely got more than the occasional Honorable Mention in the Who's the MVP thread that has been on the first page of the Shark Pool for weeks. Steelers fans should be worried that Ben's 11 to 9 TD to INT ratio may not yield a huge game from him on Sunday. While it's not quite Bell and Brown and then everyone else, it's close. It's unclear whether Green will play, but it looks unlikely. Bell and Brown accounted for 2116 of PIT's 3102 yfs (68%) and 16 of their 19 TD (84%). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that NE will scheme to limit one or both of those two. BB is the master of taking away the other team's strength, but who knows if that is even possible the way those two have been playing. The Steelers had two games out of the eight where they kicked 6 FG.
Edelman's 786 receiving yards on 101 targets is just mildly crazy by comparison to Bell's numbers. As long as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, Edelman will get a dozen targets. Blount and Edelman accounted for 1337 of the Patriots 3170 yfs (42%) and 8 of the Pats 25 TD (32%). In the 8 game sample size, the Patriots put up 68 more yfs and 6 more TD than the Steelers did. Not sure how I would game plan for NE, as they will find tendencies and holes in the PIT defense that the Steelers didn't even know existed. They also seem happy to get the ball to someone else than their primary guys. PIT may go to alternate targets out of necessity. NE will go to their role players by design.
NEW ENGLAND
Passing
Player Cmp Att Yds TD Int
Tom Brady 188 304 2206 18 3
Jimmy Garoppolo 1 3 6 0 0
Code:
Rushing
Player Att Yds TD
L Blount 125 514 6
Dion Lewis 77 324 1
James White 11 54 0
Julian Edelman 4 30 0
Danny Amendola 1 15 0
Tom Brady 17 12 0
Chris Hogan 2 7 0
M Bennett 1 4 0
Jimmy Garoppolo 3 -2 0
Code:
Receiving
Player Tgt Rec Yds TD
Julian Edelman 101 58 786 2
Chris Hogan 32 23 384 2
M Mitchell 33 25 306 4
James White 40 28 280 3
M Bennett 30 18 201 3
Dion Lewis 31 19 117 1
Michael Floyd 9 5 51 1
Danny Amendola 10 6 40 1
Matt Lengel 3 2 22 1
James Develin 8 4 18 0
L Blount 2 1 7 0
Rob Gronkowski 2 0 0 0PITTSBURGH
Player Cmp Att Yds TD Int
Big Ben 156 241 1883 11 9
Landry Jones 0 1 0 0 0
Code:
Player Att Yds TD
Le'Veon Bell 220 1172 8
F Toussaint 7 34 0
Sammie Coates 2 9 0
Big Ben 16 3 0
D Williams 2 2 0
Landry Jones 1 -1 0
Code:
Player Tgt Rec Yds TD
Antonio Brown 70 48 685 7
Eli Rogers 33 25 299 1
Ladarius Green 30 15 274 1
Le'Veon Bell 45 34 259 1
Jesse James 26 15 180 0
Cobi Hamilton 16 10 83 0
Demarcus Ayers 4 4 36 0
David Johnson 4 2 27 0
Xavier Grimble 2 1 20 1
D Heyward-Bey 1 1 10 0
Sammie Coates 7 1 10 0For starters, Bell's numbers are just flat out INSANE. He's had 254 touches, 1,431 yfs, and 9 TD IN HALF A SEASON'S WORTH OF GAMES! Yet he barely got more than the occasional Honorable Mention in the Who's the MVP thread that has been on the first page of the Shark Pool for weeks. Steelers fans should be worried that Ben's 11 to 9 TD to INT ratio may not yield a huge game from him on Sunday. While it's not quite Bell and Brown and then everyone else, it's close. It's unclear whether Green will play, but it looks unlikely. Bell and Brown accounted for 2116 of PIT's 3102 yfs (68%) and 16 of their 19 TD (84%). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that NE will scheme to limit one or both of those two. BB is the master of taking away the other team's strength, but who knows if that is even possible the way those two have been playing. The Steelers had two games out of the eight where they kicked 6 FG.
Edelman's 786 receiving yards on 101 targets is just mildly crazy by comparison to Bell's numbers. As long as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, Edelman will get a dozen targets. Blount and Edelman accounted for 1337 of the Patriots 3170 yfs (42%) and 8 of the Pats 25 TD (32%). In the 8 game sample size, the Patriots put up 68 more yfs and 6 more TD than the Steelers did. Not sure how I would game plan for NE, as they will find tendencies and holes in the PIT defense that the Steelers didn't even know existed. They also seem happy to get the ball to someone else than their primary guys. PIT may go to alternate targets out of necessity. NE will go to their role players by design.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It's not possible to take away Bell and Brown.
pats3in4
Footballguy
Of course a game could go in any direction due to several factors, so here's my guess on the odds on how the game could go...
Pats win by < 10pts (40%): I think the script that has the likeliest odds of playing out is both teams' offenses doing well, but the Pats just do a bit better with "road Ben" showing up for a redzone pick that is costly. Pats are ready for the Steelers pass rush and pick on the mediocre cornerbacks. Bell gets his, Ben does a good job with the extra time he gets thanks to the attention paid to Bell and it's something like a 31-24 game.
Steelers win by < 10pts (30%): The Steelers offense does what I think it does in the above scenario, but in this scenario the Pats' offense perhaps struggles a bit as Pittsburgh finds success getting to Brady, making 3rd down stops and winning the field position battle for most of the game. Steelers use that extra field position and extra stops to pull out a 28-21 type victory.
Pats win by 10+pts (20%): The Pats offense runs smoothly as it does in the first scenario, but a combo of the D stepping up big-time and the Steelers imploding a bit with turnovers ("road Ben" becomes a pick machine) pushes the score into 38-20 territory.
Steelers win by 10+pts (10%): Things that normally don't go bad for the Pats do: Brown torches the Pats' secondary for a long TD, Pats give up a return TD, Brady spends the whole game on his back a la Denver last year. Steelers win 33-17 or so.
Pats win by < 10pts (40%): I think the script that has the likeliest odds of playing out is both teams' offenses doing well, but the Pats just do a bit better with "road Ben" showing up for a redzone pick that is costly. Pats are ready for the Steelers pass rush and pick on the mediocre cornerbacks. Bell gets his, Ben does a good job with the extra time he gets thanks to the attention paid to Bell and it's something like a 31-24 game.
Steelers win by < 10pts (30%): The Steelers offense does what I think it does in the above scenario, but in this scenario the Pats' offense perhaps struggles a bit as Pittsburgh finds success getting to Brady, making 3rd down stops and winning the field position battle for most of the game. Steelers use that extra field position and extra stops to pull out a 28-21 type victory.
Pats win by 10+pts (20%): The Pats offense runs smoothly as it does in the first scenario, but a combo of the D stepping up big-time and the Steelers imploding a bit with turnovers ("road Ben" becomes a pick machine) pushes the score into 38-20 territory.
Steelers win by 10+pts (10%): Things that normally don't go bad for the Pats do: Brown torches the Pats' secondary for a long TD, Pats give up a return TD, Brady spends the whole game on his back a la Denver last year. Steelers win 33-17 or so.
Would be about as accurate, and useful, as the last report. Wait...this one could be used to fill toilet paper dispensers at Gillette.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Honestly I don't even think it's possible to stop Bell (let alone both him and Brown). Fortunately for the Patriots, I think both of those guys can go off and the Steelers are still likely to lose.
Bossman
Footballguy
Oh boy ... now Brady is sick.
Looks and sounds like death warmed over in this presser:
http://www.patriots.com/video/2017/01/18/tom-brady-118-we-have-play-our-best-game-year
Looks and sounds like death warmed over in this presser:
http://www.patriots.com/video/2017/01/18/tom-brady-118-we-have-play-our-best-game-year
Run It Up
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Or maybe set up one of those "AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME" geo-fenced snapchat filters in the Steelers own endzone. Pretty much locks him down.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It's actually pretty amazing to think about what Brown has accomplished given that he's obviously missing a few screws. Just think if he had his head on straight.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I think a lot of the best players have that diva mentality, gotta feed the beast.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Pittsburgh not only has to take shots down field, but they have to hit several of them. The staple of the Patriots D is bend, but don't break, and the Steelers cannot have those long drives where they eke their way down the field and kick FGs all night; that won't beat NE.
I, for one, am interested to see if Tomlin has the balls to go for 2 at some point where conventional wisdom says otherwise. He seems to have backed off that line of thinking after it blew up in his face in the Dallas game.
I, for one, am interested to see if Tomlin has the balls to go for 2 at some point where conventional wisdom says otherwise. He seems to have backed off that line of thinking after it blew up in his face in the Dallas game.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I think you got it right here. Tomlin needs to make adjustments.
....or roam the sidelines a little more aggressively and look to trip opposing players. ha
Bossman
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Atrocious. I am herewith openly putting my name out there as a replacement for Paul Zeise in the PG.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
pats3in4
Footballguy
None. Games aren't necessarily won or lost because one team performs the worst in the league at shutting down an opponent's #1 receiving option per DVOA. But I don't think it's a stretch to say it furthers the narrative that Brady could pick apart this secondary...if given adequate protection.
The worst in the league aspect of the stat was what caught my eye, especially since the Steelers D finished 7th in overall DVOA.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
This shtick is worse than the "Patriots cheat" shtick. I am herewith openly putting my name out there as a replacement for Baloney Sandwich on FBGs.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
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