ARSB player thread
May 5, 2021
I think Amon-Ra is the best route runner in the group. I could see him being the guy Goff looks for often. He doesn't get much separation but he's a pitbull who will win a lot of contested catches. Had a lot more success in 2019 from the slot than last year when he played outside, and I think that will be his role with the Lions. I can see him being a guy who catches a lot of slants and curls. I don't think he has much twitch so I don't expect him to offer much YAC.
I could see 110 targets, 80-825-4. Borderline WR3/Flex type play.
May 12
Situation wise, couldn’t be better for him personally. Both the vets on the outside have a less developed route tree and his weakness (9 route) is their strength. Might be third on the team in targets this year behind Hock & Swift - by far the two best playmakers on a really bad team - but as the Detroit equivalent of Kupp he could flourish this year.
They’ll draft an alpha next year, and I don’t think ARSB is ever going to be a WR1. But he could def carve out a long term role for himself as a dependable possession receiver.
May 18
…he doesn’t have a great top gear and I don’t think his YAC will be anything special.
But he does have some good qualities. Lot of breadth to his release techniques, not long but very strong hands. Bulldog on 50/50 balls. Knows how to sell a fake and get the defenders hips turned before he makes his break, works back to the ball and he’s a hand catcher. Likes to block, varying reports on how effective he is, but he’s def a football player.
Speaks 3 languages, excellent student, one brother (ESB) has been an NFL dud, third at Stanford doesn’t look like a prospect. He’s the best of the three kids and his dad (not quite as overbearing as Ball & def not a Marinovich type) has been pushing him his whole life (& backed off once they left the nest.)
____________
Right now his redraft ADP is around 215/WR93 (roughly 40-440-0 in full PPR), which is way off IMO. 75-850-4 would have been WR34 last year, and that’s where I see him. Guy you draft in the 15th-18th round as a WR6/7 and he ends up being WR3/Flex. No league winner but solid piece of the puzzle and practically free.
May 19
We are talking about a Day 3 Wide Receiver, and only around 5% of those guys every post a Top 24 season. In fact, since 2010, the only Day 3 picks who became WR1s are Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill. FTR I don't think ARSB is a future Pro Bowler, but let's talk about those three exceptions for a second.
The knocks on them were body catcher (AB) from a small school, not much production after his freshman year due to injuries (SD), and character concerns (TH) - none of those apply to ARSB. That means 32 teams passed on him three times based on their talent evaluation - another 6 a fourth time. Sixteen WRs taken before him, so you can't completely ignore that (ARSB said he's not gonna forget it, which you love to hear - but man even the UDFAs are big talkers in May.)
In 12 formations, you would expect ARSB to be coming off the field - though it should be pointed out he loves to block and works hard at improving that aspect to his game, so maybe not. MCDC wants to establish the run, they've invested heavily in the O-line (3 first rounders), and cleared out Swift's path to being a three down back, parting ways with their leading rusher (ADP) and third down pass pro back (Wizzanator) while signing a capable backup (the hilarious Jamaal W) who should pose little threat to his status while sharing the load. A 7th rounder and a couple UDFAs round out the RB room. Anyway, game script is a real thing, they will be losing often, but they do have a desire to be a (relatively) run heavy offense.
In 11 formations - typically 70-74% of all downs in recent years - he should see the majority of the snaps. He hasn't been anointed the WR3 starting slot, but it's a realistic presumption he should win the job. I've watched Allison career closely and he's capable but just a guy. Quintez Cephus was also a Day 3 pick, albeit by the previous regime and 52 picks later (164 v 112), and didn't see his snap count rise until multiple injuries hit the '20 receiving corps. A lot of people think Surratt has a chance to make the team, and they did give Bryant $100K bonus, but generally UDFAs don't have much impact (Doug Baldwin, Cole Beasley and Adam Thielen say hello.)
He has a very good opportunity. But it is highly exceptional for Day 3 WR picks - even early round 4 - to become stars.
May 27
…it's day 3 of OTAs, no earth shattering revelations. but he's making a great first impression and has a seriousness and professionalism to him that sets him apart as a different kind of rookie from a preparation standpoint.
…he's doing all the right things to position himself for success. also working on special teams a lot. not much production as a PR in college but sounds like they're going to be getting him a lot of snaps in one capacity or another. still early, who knows how it plays out.
May 27
Realistically, ARSB s/b a barely relevant 45-475-3 type rookie. FF wise, that was WR92 in full PPR in 2020. This site has him as consensus WR80 (45-526-2.6), with a range of 18.4-203-0.9 to 81.0-867-5.4; basically an undraftable WR6/WR7. Fair enough, the history of Day 3 WRs is the vast majority of them never turn in a Top 24 season in their career.
Couple tree things.
• He was a phenomenal recruit
• early break out
• dreamy situation for a rookie to walk into; a couple retread vets with no more history with the QB than he has
• football player first; this is an intangible but he’s the kind of player and has the makeup of a guy the new coach loves
• bulldog mentality on 50/50 balls
• loves to block, which goes back to bullet #4
I could see MCDC/Anthony Lynn falling in love with this kid and getting him involved early and often. Might just be my natural optimism talking so take it with a grain of salt, but I think his rookie year production will surprise people.
All that said, I agree with your
(Ilove80s) early assessment. The alpha isn’t on the roster yet, dynasty owners should be selling high after this year. His ceiling is WR2/WR3 IRL and I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a solid WR who is always fighting for his role.
June 10 (minicamp)
Different set of drills on day 3, today they were working on two-minute offense and no huddle. Encouraging bc he didn’t do much to attract any praise the first couple days.
June 11
Nice to hear he had a good minicamp. In that WR room (the worst in the NFL by a good margin) he’ll be given opportunity. Personally I don’t think he’s ever gonna be more than a WR4 IRL or ever be fantasy relevant.
You could def make the argument it’s rare a Day 3 WR ever puts up a top 24 season so why should we expect anything different from ARSB? Fair enough, but either way you’re talking about a WW snag or a 15th round pick - low cost flyer in redraft. Can’t imagine the dynasty investment is much more on a relative basis.
For 2021 I think the rookie has more upside. Beyond that, he’ll always be fighting for his starting job.
There’s a universe where Quintez is seeing snaps in 11 formations. I just think he’s just a guy. I like ARSB marginally better this year but I doubt he is on his way to being anything special. Relative to what hey gave rostered though I think he’ll emerge as Goff’s favorite chain mover outside his of 88 and 32. But I’m thinking about it in terms of a range of outcomes. I’ve never understood the mentality you have to plant your flag on marginal guys.
May or may not happen for 14. If he doesn’t, it will be fairly painless to move on.
