2022-23 NBA Thread: “you’ll never let me down like the Heat did”, Miami fan says to giant pile of cocaine (2 Viewers)

[MAC_32]

I am getting more curious about how the data analytics and team projection stuff works. The Celtics were the clear favorite at the all star break. They came back and played a high scoring game against the Pacers (which they won) and their outlook dropped a ton. Nuggets now the favorite on 538 while the Clippers vaulted to 35% to win the title (Boston now 25%).

ETA: Now I realize you are referring to the ESPN odds and not 538. Denver did make a monster jump on 538 from 15% on 2/17 to today. For whatever reason they really think Denver is the team to beat now.

Here are the current 538 title odds:
Denver - 24%
Boston - 20%
Milwaukee - 16%
Grizzlies - 8%
76ers - 7%
Mavericks - 5%
Warriors - 4%
Cavaliers - 4%
Suns - 2%
Heat - 2%
Timberwolves - 2%
Clippers - 1%
Lakers - 1%

I feel like more of Boston's decline in the odds has more to do with the rise of the Bucks than anything. Just getting out of the East isn't going to be easy, so any decline in those odds is an automatic decline in winning the Finals.

The Clippers are still considered very much a long shot on 538...even below the T-Wolves.

Yeah, I wasn't clear in blending two different sources. ESPN's analytics have been whacky, but 538's generally only move in small increments, not big jumps from game to game.

What I don't get as far as the Celtics go is they have played so many games recently with starters out of the lineup, that skewed their record / performance / results. Last night was only the second game all season they were able to start the Jays, Smart, Al, and Timelord. Other than Gallinari, last night was the only game this year everyone else was available. I expect Boston will go on a run again if they can stay healthy.

538 has 2 different systems. RAPTOR is based on the sum of the perceived abilities of the individual players. So if it calculates that 5 players have 10 win shares each and 5 have 1 win share each and everyone else has 0, it will project you to win 55 games (as a simplistic example). It tends to be more forward looking based on what the current players are doing. Elo is based more on what the team has actually done so far based on who they have played and in what circumstances. So it is more reflective of the probable strength of a team to that point.

How Our NBA Predictions Work

References Basketball-Reference.com / Elo ratings Monte Carlo simulations / Simple Projection System The Details FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone thr…

fivethirtyeight.com

I don't know what to say about ESPN

All the analytics sites use a different secret sauce. I thought that 538 baked in a recency element, meaning the last few weeks of games matter to them way more than what happened at the start of the season.

Basketball Reference has their own probabilities for winning the title . . .

BOS - 22.3%
CLE - 17.8%
DEN - 15.5%
MEM - 12.1%
PHI - 8.0%
MIL - 6.6%
SAC - 3.2%
NYK - 2.4%
PHO - 2.1%

Those are the only teams with a 2% chance. They have the Clippers at 0.7% and the Warriors at 0.3%. Obviously, the champion will be crowned for winning actual games on the court, not through some black magic data manipulation by a stat geek to declare a winner. But Basketball Reference is the one site that jumped out at me for really liking the Cavs.

I love this Cavs team and think there may be a legit shot at a ring in '24, but losing in 6 in the conference finals will exceed expectations. This team isn't ready for a ship just yet, but we should find out how close they are come May. Those %'s are garbage.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here is the average of championship percentages from current data from Basketball Reference, 538 RAPTOR, 538 ELO, ESPN BPI, PlayoffStatus, and Power Rankings Guru.

BOS - 22.0%
DEN - 16.7
MIL - 13.5
LAC - 8.4
CLE - 8.2
MEM - 7.5
PHI - 7.0
NYK - 2.5
DAL - 2.3
PHO - 1.9
GSW - 1.7
BRK - 1.7
SAC - 1.6
MIA - 1.2
NOP - 0.7
OKC - 0.7
LAL - 0.5
TOR - 0.4
WAS - 0.3
ATL - 0.2
UTA - 0.2
POR - 0.1
CHI - 0
CHA - 0
DET - 0
IND - 0
ORL - 0
HOU - 0
SAS - 0

Still messy, as I don't see how the Knicks are more likely to win over the likes of DAL, PHO, or GS. But it is what it is.

 

[Jayrod]

Here is the average of championship percentages from current data from Basketball Reference, 538 RAPTOR, 538 ELO, ESPN BPI, PlayoffStatus, and Power Rankings Guru.

BOS - 22.0%
DEN - 16.7
MIL - 13.5
LAC - 8.4
CLE - 8.2
MEM - 7.5
PHI - 7.0
NYK - 2.5
DAL - 2.3
PHO - 1.9
GSW - 1.7
BRK - 1.7
SAC - 1.6
MIA - 1.2
NOP - 0.7
OKC - 0.7
LAL - 0.5
TOR - 0.4
WAS - 0.3
ATL - 0.2
UTA - 0.2
POR - 0.1
CHI - 0
CHA - 0
DET - 0
IND - 0
ORL - 0
HOU - 0
SAS - 0

Still messy, as I don't see how the Knicks are more likely to win over the likes of DAL, PHO, or GS. But it is what it is.

One thing I like about stats based analysis is that it takes out our personal biases, misconceptions and misunderstandings.

Maybe Luka and Kyrie really aren't going to be good together? Maybe the loss of Bridges is a bigger deal to the Suns than people think? Maybe the Warriors bench is too much of a detriment to overcome? Maybe Randle and Brunson are actually great all-NBA level players and we just don't believe it?

Numbers can sometimes tell us things we can't always see. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results and I imagine all of these are based on past performance.

 

[Anarchy99]

One thing I like about stats based analysis is that it takes out our personal biases, misconceptions and misunderstandings.

Maybe Luka and Kyrie really aren't going to be good together? Maybe the loss of Bridges is a bigger deal to the Suns than people think? Maybe the Warriors bench is too much of a detriment to overcome? Maybe Randle and Brunson are actually great all-NBA level players and we just don't believe it?

Numbers can sometimes tell us things we can't always see. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results and I imagine all of these are based on past performance.

So much changes in the post season vs. the regular season that analytics based championship projections are usually a dart throw. Teams don't play each other 7 times in a row in the regular season. The refs call games differently. The pressure gets magnified with each passing game. Player rotations get pared down. Fatigue and nagging injuries start setting in. Home games start to carry more weight. Some guys start to piddle down their legs in crunch time. In the past however many years, we've seen teams that were rolling in the regular season (Warriors with 70+ wins, the Suns, the Jazz, the Rockets, etc.) come up short in the post season. It's a whole new universe once the regular season ends. But analytics likely loved their chances.

 

[msudaisy26]

I can't wait for the Otis appearance to tell us how good the Knicks are. Their regular season momentum will carry them through the first round, then they will pull a minor upset in the second round and when everyone writes them off they will shock the world in the conference finals that will provide an emotional tidal wave into the finals that will crush the western conference champion.

Or... They will just lose in 5 in the first round if they survive/avoid the playin games.

 

[drunken slob]

I haven't been around for a while.
However, I always look forward to seeing the updated titles for this thread. Another classic, @Capella

 

[AAABatteries]

Hawks excited about Nate being gone. Scored 81 points in the first half.

 

[Anarchy99]

The Nets are down more points (34) than they scored (29) in the first half against the Bulls.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Hawks excited about Nate being gone. Scored 81 points in the first half.

I read that the Cavs were completely shuked about how to deal with Jokic last night. Maybe they are suffering a hangover.

In Pat Bev's first game with the Bulls, they take a 63-29 halftime lead against Brooklyn.

 

[msudaisy26]

I haven't been around for a while.
However, I always look forward to seeing the updated titles for this thread. Another classic, @Capella

@Frostillicus would like a word with you.

 

[drunken slob]

I haven't been around for a while.
However, I always look forward to seeing the updated titles for this thread. Another classic, @Capella

@Frostillicus would like a word with you.

Send my thankks,

 

[jobarules]

Some of you thought this Nets team would be solid

They're a team full of backups

 

[ShamrockPride]

Nets gonna score 70? Good lord this is bad...

 

[mr. furley]

I can't wait for the @Otis appearance

 

[Desert_Power]

I haven't been around for a while.
However, I always look forward to seeing the updated titles for this thread. Another classic, @Capella

Always good to see you around these parts

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Kings outlast the Clips

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Kings outlast the Clips

I saw the Marc stein tweet about Westbrook starting last night then went to bad without watching any then saw the tweet about the score and OT when I woke up as the very next stein tweet and though he must have been making some kind of joke prediction …

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Simmons some how hurt his knee over the all star break?

 

[thecatch]

Kings outlast the Clips

Crazy game. Clippers melted down in the last 2 mins of regulation. Fox is playing like prime John Wall right now, it’s fun to watch.

The Kings have I think the second hardest schedule down the stretch so I’m pessimistically waiting for the bottom to fall out. They could very easily fall into the back end of the play in range. But wins over Portland and a fully healthy LAC is a good start.

 

[thecatch]

Kings outlast the Clips

I saw the Marc stein tweet about Westbrook starting last night then went to bad without watching any then saw the tweet about the score and OT when I woke up as the very next stein tweet and though he must have been making some kind of joke prediction …

Westbrook actually played well, at least for the parts I watched.

 

[FatMax]

Kings outlast the Clips

I saw the Marc stein tweet about Westbrook starting last night then went to bad without watching any then saw the tweet about the score and OT when I woke up as the very next stein tweet and though he must have been making some kind of joke prediction …

Westbrook actually played well, at least for the parts I watched.

I watched the whole thing ... he looked really good offensively. Defense .. not so much, but he obviously wasn't alone there. If the Clips stay healthy, they should boat race a lot of teams.

 

[MAC_32]

Hawks excited about Nate being gone. Scored 81 points in the first half.

I read that the Cavs were completely shuked about how to deal with Jokic last night. Maybe they are suffering a hangover.

In Pat Bev's first game with the Bulls, they take a 63-29 halftime lead against Brooklyn.

I thought he was fairly well contained for 3.5 quarters, but he took the game over late while the Cavs inconsistent execution in the clutch raised its ugly head again.

 

[mr. furley]

Kings outlast the Clips

Crazy game. Clippers melted down in the last 2 mins of regulation. Fox is playing like prime John Wall right now, it’s fun to watch.

The Kings have I think the second hardest schedule down the stretch so I’m pessimistically waiting for the bottom to fall out. They could very easily fall into the back end of the play in range. But wins over Portland and a fully healthy LAC is a good start.

good thing there are like 9 games left after the all-star break now

 

[Jayrod]

Not liking the way they officiate Embiid. Dude is allowed to just shove his way to the basket and any contact by Boston is a foul. Very inconsistent standards when it comes to contact and who is responsible for said contact.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Tatum just non-existent tonight...

3 of last 6 games <20 pts

 

[Desert_Power]

What a game

 

[Jayrod]

Tatum just non-existent tonight...

3 of last 6 games <20 pts

18/13/6 and the game winner. Wasn't efficient but was effective.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Not liking the way they officiate Embiid. Dude is allowed to just shove his way to the basket and any contact by Boston is a foul. Very inconsistent standards when it comes to contact and who is responsible for said contact.

That’s how they always officiate him…..

 

[Long Ball Larry]

My god, what the **** do the Celtics eat before these games with the sixers? Last time Blake griffin went 30 for 30 on threes and Al Horford who I’m pretty sure missed every single three he took here with the sixers is now shooting about 96% against us since he went back to Boston.

As frustrating as it was, I guess I can take a little solace in the way the sixers held a lead for a while and then were able to battle back after getting topsy turvied. After doing the same thing against Memphis, there is a little more hope. They are pretty well positioned to find a totally different way to lose in the second round this year.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Updated: Since the NBA started tracking play-by-play data in 1996, there are 155 players who have attempted 25+ FGs to tie or take the lead in the final 24 seconds of the 4th quarter (playoffs included).

Jayson Tatum ranks 1st out of 155 with a 51.7% field goal percentage.

I forget who the sixers traded to give up tatum but I’m pretty sure he was close to this

 

[Anarchy99]

Updated: Since the NBA started tracking play-by-play data in 1996, there are 155 players who have attempted 25+ FGs to tie or take the lead in the final 24 seconds of the 4th quarter (playoffs included).

Jayson Tatum ranks 1st out of 155 with a 51.7% field

goal percentage.

I forget who the sixers traded to give up tatum but I’m pretty sure he was close to this

The Sixers traded a future first round pick to move up from 3 to 1 to select Markelle Fultz. That turned into the #14 pick two years later, which BOS used on Romeo Langford (now on the Spurs).

 

[Jayrod]

My god, what the **** do the Celtics eat before these games with the sixers? Last time Blake griffin went 30 for 30 on threes and Al Horford who I’m pretty sure missed every single three he took here with the sixers is now shooting about 96% against us since he went back to Boston.

As frustrating as it was, I guess I can take a little solace in the way the sixers held a lead for a while and then were able to battle back after getting topsy turvied. After doing the same thing against Memphis, there is a little more hope. They are pretty well positioned to find a totally different way to lose in the second round this year.

Two words..... Doc. Rivers.

 

[the moops]

The Sixers traded a future first round pick to move up from 3 to 1 to select Markelle Fultz. That turned into the #14 pick two years later, which BOS used on Romeo Langford (now on the Spurs).

All in all it becomes

Markelle Fultz, Romeo Langford, Blake Wesley, and a 2028 swap that likely won't even happen

for

Jayson Tatum and Derrick White

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The Sixers traded a future first round pick to move up from 3 to 1 to select Markelle Fultz. That turned into the #14 pick two years later, which BOS used on Romeo Langford (now on the Spurs).

All in all it becomes

Markelle Fultz, Romeo Langford, Blake Wesley, and a 2028 swap that likely won't even happen

for

Jayson Tatum and Derrick White

Who says “no”?!?!

 

[Capella]

The Sixers traded a future first round pick to move up from 3 to 1 to select Markelle Fultz. That turned into the #14 pick two years later, which BOS used on Romeo Langford (now on the Spurs).

All in all it becomes

Markelle Fultz, Romeo Langford, Blake Wesley, and a 2028 swap that likely won't even happen

for

Jayson Tatum and Derrick White

seems bad

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

The Sixers traded a future first round pick to move up from 3 to 1 to select Markelle Fultz. That turned into the #14 pick two years later, which BOS used on Romeo Langford (now on the Spurs).

All in all it becomes

Markelle Fultz, Romeo Langford, Blake Wesley, and a 2028 swap that likely won't even happen

for

Jayson Tatum and Derrick White

Turrible.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Updated: Since the NBA started tracking play-by-play data in 1996, there are 155 players who have attempted 25+ FGs to tie or take the lead in the final 24 seconds of the 4th quarter (playoffs included).

Jayson Tatum ranks 1st out of 155 with a 51.7% field

goal percentage.

I forget who the sixers traded to give up tatum but I’m pretty sure he was close to this

The Sixers traded a future first round pick to move up from 3 to 1 to select Markelle Fultz. That turned into the #14 pick two years later, which BOS used on Romeo Langford (now on the Spurs).

you don’t say

 

[msudaisy26]

The best part of that Tatum for Fultz swap was I remember every NBA insider was saying that the Celtics had no interest in Fultz and Tatum was their guy. All the 76ers had to do was sit tight and they would have gotten Fultz or Ball.

 

[strykerpks]

Does anyone actually like Devin Booker?

 

[Jayrod]

Bucks keep finding a way to win, even without Giannis. I think they are better than Boston right now.

Any word on when Durant is actually going to play? It would be nice to see some of these big matchups with teams at full strength.

 

[Jayrod]

Does anyone actually like Devin Booker?

Kardashian/Jenners?

 

[Anarchy99]

Burning back-to-back #1 overall picks on Simmons and Fultz didn’t exactly work out for the Sixers.

 

[Desert_Power]

Burning back-to-back #1 overall picks on Simmons and Fultz didn’t exactly work out for the Sixers.

Bryan Colangelo was just so bad.

 

[Capella]

Bucks keep finding a way to win, even without Giannis. I think they are better than Boston right now.

Any word on when Durant is actually going to play? It would be nice to see some of these big matchups with teams at full strength.

It’s almost a shock when you turn on a game now and see the star. I actually laughed when I saw Giannis in street clothes.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Burning back-to-back #1 overall picks on Simmons and Fultz didn’t exactly work out for the Sixers.

Trust the process.

 

[Desert_Power]

Bucks keep finding a way to win, even without Giannis. I think they are better than Boston right now.

Any word on when Durant is actually going to play? It would be nice to see some of these big matchups with teams at full strength.

It’s almost a shock when you turn on a game now and see the star. I actually laughed when I saw Giannis in street clothes.

I mean why would your star player want to play in a national TV Sunday game against a former finals opponent.

 

[strykerpks]

Bucks keep finding a way to win, even without Giannis. I think they are better than Boston right now.

Any word on when Durant is actually going to play? It would be nice to see some of these big matchups with teams at full strength.

It’s almost a shock when you turn on a game now and see the star. I actually laughed when I saw Giannis in street clothes.

They called Middleton a "role player" on the halftime show. Him and Holiday are stars. Not in the marketing sense but they are worthy of carrying a solid team

 

[strykerpks]

Bucks keep finding a way to win, even without Giannis. I think they are better than Boston right now.

Any word on when Durant is actually going to play? It would be nice to see some of these big matchups with teams at full strength.

It’s almost a shock when you turn on a game now and see the star. I actually laughed when I saw Giannis in street clothes.

I mean why would your star player want to play in a national TV Sunday game against a former finals opponent.

He took himself out of the game the other day because of a knee.....I mean it bent backwards in the playoffs 2 years ago and he dropped a 50 burger to clinch. What more do you want from him?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Burning back-to-back #1 overall picks on Simmons and Fultz didn’t exactly work out for the Sixers.

I think you might be right about that

 

[Zow]

Burning back-to-back #1 overall picks on Simmons and Fultz didn’t exactly work out for the Sixers.

I think you might be right about that

“Trust the process.”