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2021 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (4 Viewers)

JFS171 said:
One I haven’t seen mentioned yet - Eno Benjamin. He basically redshirted last year after going in the seventh round, but they kept him on the roster all season despite never dressing him for a game. Edmonds is a fine player, but we’ve never seen him carry the mail as a lead guy. Connor looked washed to me. 

It’s completely plausible to me that Benjamin brings more thump than Edmonds and more receiving and burst than Connor and ends up Arizona’s lead guy when it’s all said and done. 
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Perfect late round dart throw IMO

 
The one catch with Eno is the team seems infatuated with Jonathan Ward. Ward played ahead of Benjamin last year, though many speculated due to special teams. Benjamin had three good kickoff returns in week 1 of the preseason and looked explosive on his touches. He’s got talent and juice, but I’d keep an eye on Ward too if he ends up ahead of Benjamin.  

 
JFS171 said:
The one catch with Eno is the team seems infatuated with Jonathan Ward. Ward played ahead of Benjamin last year, though many speculated due to special teams. Benjamin had three good kickoff returns in week 1 of the preseason and looked explosive on his touches. He’s got talent and juice, but I’d keep an eye on Ward too if he ends up ahead of Benjamin.  
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Good news last night for Benjamin, playing ahead of Ward. If he’s third RB now, he’s in the perfect spot for the purposes of this thread. 

 
MAC_32 said:
I'm cooler on Jaret Patterson now as Gibson's toe injury may be a thing of the past, but he was my priority early summer. Lot of other names mentioned sprinkled throughput my rosters, but they're not really lotto tickets imho. Maybe semantics, but they're talented backups with a clear path to the lineup and i don't see that as a lotto ticket. 
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Patterson continues to play well, and got some run with the 1s last night, I believe. In Week 1, the WFT continued using the committee approach with Gibson, though it could be preseason noise. Still, McKissic came off the street in his third or fourth organization and played a LOT. Not to knock McKissic per se, but what if Patterson is an upgrade? Ron Rivera compared Patterson to Darren Sproles in minicamp, and Patterson has now balled out in back to back preseason games. I doubt they could slide him to the PS at this point. 

 
JFS171 said:
Patterson continues to play well, and got some run with the 1s last night, I believe. In Week 1, the WFT continued using the committee approach with Gibson, though it could be preseason noise. Still, McKissic came off the street in his third or fourth organization and played a LOT. Not to knock McKissic per se, but what if Patterson is an upgrade? Ron Rivera compared Patterson to Darren Sproles in minicamp, and Patterson has now balled out in back to back preseason games. I doubt they could slide him to the PS at this point. 
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Good post...just checked McKissic's contract and he only has one year left...if Patterson could become the complimentary RB Washington would fill that position with someone making peanuts which is nice...last night he went-3-3-25 in the receiving game so if he can produce in that area his chances to contribute only increase.

 
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JFS171 said:
Patterson continues to play well, and got some run with the 1s last night, I believe. In Week 1, the WFT continued using the committee approach with Gibson, though it could be preseason noise. Still, McKissic came off the street in his third or fourth organization and played a LOT. Not to knock McKissic per se, but what if Patterson is an upgrade? Ron Rivera compared Patterson to Darren Sproles in minicamp, and Patterson has now balled out in back to back preseason games. I doubt they could slide him to the PS at this point. 
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https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/08/21/undrafted-rookie-jaret-patterson-appears-close-to-earning-a-roster-spot-in-washington/

 
Is there a difference between a "dart throw RB" and a "lotto ticket RB"?

I feel like a player in the Damien Williams situation this season in CHI is a lock to make the team, and could have a bigger role than people realize without an injury or win the job outright if they got rolling after the starter got hurt. He'll have some sort of score on the dart board but he has a relatively small chance of landing at the place you are hoping they will. 

A lotto ticket might not even make the team, but if they DID, and the situation aligned just right, they could hit big. Sort of the James Robinson of last season. 

 
BoltBacker said:
Is there a difference between a "dart throw RB" and a "lotto ticket RB"?

I feel like a player in the Damien Williams situation this season in CHI is a lock to make the team, and could have a bigger role than people realize without an injury or win the job outright if they got rolling after the starter got hurt. He'll have some sort of score on the dart board but he has a relatively small chance of landing at the place you are hoping they will. 

A lotto ticket might not even make the team, but if they DID, and the situation aligned just right, they could hit big. Sort of the James Robinson of last season. 
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i guess that the idea of a "dart throw" is like the act of randomly choosing among any number of players who have a non-zero chance to have value but without any particular expectation of upside.

the lotto ticket concept, at least historically in this thread, has been trying to look for specific situational conditions combined with a player's particular set of skills that could make them a true RB1 at some point during the season.  It is kind of like trying to reverse engineer the James Robinson situation (among others in history), yes.  And I would agree that a lotto ticket might not even make the team.  John Kelly is a good example of someone who a couple years ago was thought of as possibly having more upside within this context even though he was way below Henderson and Malcolm Brown in the pecking order.

 
I’m keeping an eye on Caleb Huntley in Atlanta, largely because I don’t think Ollison is very good and we’ve never seen Mike Davis carry the load for a full season. Hawkins caught pub early, but he’s a scat back fighting to make the roster. Huntley’s significantly bigger, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he started pushing Ollison. 

 
JFS171 said:
I found myself looking at Tony Jones yesterday and wondering if the Saints don’t just let Latavius Murray stroll on out the door. Good add to the list. 

Per Spotrac, Saints have a potential out with Murray taking a $1.8MM dead cap hit, but shedding $7.6MM over the next two years. 
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https://twitter.com/miketriplett/status/1430180051430019096?s=21

ICYMI: ESPN's MNF broadcasters said Sean Payton raved about RB Tony Jones Jr. in pre-game production meetings and even said "If you’re asking me today, my No. 2 RB is Tony Jones." Payton used Jones a lot with the 1s to evaluate whether he'll move him ahead of vets Murray, Freeman.

 
JFS171 said:
https://twitter.com/miketriplett/status/1430180051430019096?s=21

ICYMI: ESPN's MNF broadcasters said Sean Payton raved about RB Tony Jones Jr. in pre-game production meetings and even said "If you’re asking me today, my No. 2 RB is Tony Jones." Payton used Jones a lot with the 1s to evaluate whether he'll move him ahead of vets Murray, Freeman.
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Murray 9 carries for 12 yds in 2 preseason games.  Would not be surprised one bit if he's cut.

 
Gus Edwards. you'll thank me later. please check out Andrew Kiorkof on youtube. he has a video of either sleeper RBs or undervalued players, can't remember which, but he sums it all up perfectly well. Edwards is a beast. his career stats are eye-popping, just watch Kiorkof lay it all out with surgical precision.. in short, he's special. if you think The Hobbitt JK Dobbins can hold off Gus for 17 games, you're not seeing the forest through the trees.  

BTW Kiorkof is awesome just watch some of his videos. very informative!

 
Packers: Kylin Hill is PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB in preseason

There doesn’t seem to be much doubt at this stage that Hill will be the Packers’ number three running back this season. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are locked in as the top two, but LaFleur’s offense requires good depth at the running back position.

With only a couple of weeks to go until the start of the regular season, it’s going to take something special from the other running backs on the roster bubble to overtake Hill as the RB3.

Hill has been excellent so far and could prove to be one of the steals of the 2021 NFL Draft when we look back at this class a couple of years from now.
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Definitely loading up on Gus the Bus shares.

Damien Williams is a must-cuff for Montgomery owners, and a fine stand-alone dart throw.

Tony Pollard is a name I haven't seen here yet. Must-cuff to Zeke obviously, but I'm loading up on him in all drafts, regardless. Zeke has been super-durable.....but it only takes one hit. Call me crazy, but I believe that Pollard is the more talented of the two at this stage in Zeke's career. League winner if/when he gets the chance.

Also will toss out McKinnon in KC. Perfect late/last-round flier. Top-flight offense. CEH already been banged up a bit in pre-season. Darwin and Darrell are Jags IMHO. McKinnon has the talent to soar in that offense, if things were to break right.

 
Mostert taken out of practice today with "apparent back pain." Could be nothing of course, but not the best look for a guy who is known for getting banged up.

Not exactly a lotto ticket cause he was getting drafted before the last couple picks, but Sermon could be movin on up.

 
hamsterdam said:
Mostert taken out of practice today with "apparent back pain." Could be nothing of course, but not the best look for a guy who is known for getting banged up.

Not exactly a lotto ticket cause he was getting drafted before the last couple picks, but Sermon could be movin on up.
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I actually like Mostert at his price better than Sermon.  Sermon has been going earlier and SF is handling Mostert with kiddie gloves in the preseason given his injury history.  Should be a complete timeshare but the SF running game should take off once Lance takes control and Mostert's speed gives him a pretty high week-to-week ceiling given the limited touches.

 
Ilov80s said:
Can you give me some insight on Ty'son Williams? That is a new name to me. I checked out his playerprofiler and it's not impressive. You think he's in line to get work in case of injury over Justice Hill?
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sushinsky4tsar said:
 It's a deep one, and he's buried, but a Waldman special.   South Carolina guy (I believe), transferred to BYU and showed some really nice flashes on his draft year before going down with an ACL injury (I believe).   Injury killed his draft stock.   UDFA to Baltimore who Waldman was pumping up last year as a "remember the name" guy to keep an eye on.   He was never sold as a guy with a lot of sizzle or immense physical upside.  Just kind of a solid RB capable of climbing up a depth chart.  It's probably even money that he ever scores 3 fantasy points and 15-to-1 that anyone ever plugs him to their starting lineup.   
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Ty’Son likely the backfield mate for Gus Bus now … big deal. 

 
zamboni said:
Love this thread from past years. Just to re-clarify, are we talking about guys who we think can emerge only with an injury to the starter, even without an injury, or any of the above?
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Doesn't matter how they got there, just that they were cheap enough to scrape off the bottom of the WW or just pick up when no-one is looking LOL

 
Ilov80s said:
Can you give me some insight on Ty'son Williams? That is a new name to me. I checked out his playerprofiler and it's not impressive. You think he's in line to get work in case of injury over Justice Hill?
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Waldman favorite - that's all I know LOL

 
The Dude said:
Lot of quality thought sharing in this thread every year.  But it’s also guys throwing out every variation possible so some guys get pt.  
i suggest the list be part depth chart to satisfy the latter.

and the focus of the list to be ascending talent
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Elaborate please?

 
daylight said:
BAL - LOTTO Ty'Son Williams

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Awesome list, but I hope nobody puts me in the Ty'Son Williams hater club :)   Especially now!   He's super relevant as an end-of-bench consideration.   My comment was based more on the fact that he probably wasn't an option for too many rosters other than the deepest dynasty leagues prior to the Dobbins injury.

I always make a mental note of the Waldman favorites, but let's face it, there's plenty who never amount to anything.   I'm currently trying to decide if he's worth an add on my 24-man roster.   I'm currently sitting on guys like Tony Jones Jr, Damien Williams, Khalil Herbert, Kylin Hill, Peoples-Jones, Dyami Brown, and trying to figure out if I should be parting with any of them to add this guy.   I'm thinking that the answer is probably no, but need to do some homework on where Justice Hill is at.

Between a workhorse and a perfect 3-man committee, I think Gus Bus probably falls somewhere in between the middle, maybe 6/10th of the way to workhorse.   Trying to figure out if that's enough to make Ty'Son and Justice Hill worth it in redraft and dynasty.   Should be noted that Ravens were kicking the tires on Gurley earlier this offseason.   If they don't sign a guy like that, it would probably say a lot in their confidence in both backs behind Gus Bus.   If they do sign a Gurley, then I can probably leave him on my Watch list.

Waldman RSP on Ty'Son:

https://youtu.be/S6sJejXENQU

 
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daylight said:
Elaborate please?
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Just suggesting that the list should be broken up for ease of consumption. for example,

first, all the ascenders, guys that are sitting behind guys that are not performing and opportunity may be knocking for instance if Gordon is starting Williams would be in this group

Second list all prominent back ups that should be rostered - the mattison types

third part should be all the guys that are long shots.  Last year, the list was filled with guys that would require two injuries to maybe get a touch

 
Following up on the above - those that are closer to being somebody should be more prominent on the list - like  watch list while others should be on the radar.  and some people that require multiple injuries to pay shouldn't even be on the list until one of those 2 get injured.

concise and clean

 
I'm not crazy about the labels, but as far as my re-draft priority from the list, it probably goes:

  1. AJ Dillon
  2. Mattison
  3. Lindsay
  4. Chubba
  5. Tony Jones Jr.
  6. Gainwell
  7. Malc Brown
  8. Rountree
  9. Ahmed
  10. Damien Williams
  11. Ty Johnson
  12. Alex Collins
  13. Ollison
  14. K. Herbert
  15. Kylin Hill
  16. Jermar Jefferson
  17. Ty'son Williams
  18. D'Ernest Johnson
  19. Xavier Jones
Dillon and then Mattison by a country mile.   Not much difference between Malc Brown & Ollison, and then 14 through 19 are probably an injury away from any real fantasy production.  Others?

Pollard - probably belongs on the list up top with Dillon if Dillon and Mattison are included

Samaje Perine -  like him better than half the names on the current list for re-draft

Eno Benjamin - Conner injury pending, or J. Ward if you prefer.   Kind of view Eno similar to Kylin Hill.   Better dynasty guy than re-draft, but the 1 & 2 in Arizona are a lot less formidable.

Jaret Patterson - Another guy in a #3 that becomes very interesting with an injury.

Justice Hill - probably still an injury away

Brian Hill -or- D. Evans - TEN is not my favorite RB injury stash, but worth mentioning.

Breida - doesn't seem to be building momentum, but it's a beatable depth chart

M. Boone - possible IR eligible stash that becomes interesting if one of the top two go down

J. Wilkins - seems to have the edge on Mack, but an injury away

McKinnon -or Thompson - purely due to the offense.  Limited upside with Darrel, but he probably belongs ahead of both if he qualifies.

Booker - given the Barkley situation

Caleb Huntley - don't know much about him, but a beatable depth chart

Gallman, E. Mitchell, or just about any Niners RB.   

 
This whole thread is a reach. This isn't 2007 when there were still such things as sleepers. The book is out on everybody entering the NFL these days.

 
  • Smile
Reactions: One
from Matthew Berry

"Justice Hill and Ty’Son Williams are the other names now on the fantasy radar behind Edwards. 

Hill was a preseason fantasy darling when the Ravens drafted him in the 4th round in 2019 but has failed to live up to the hype. He’s also missed the previous two games with an ankle injury, but has an exciting profile as a speedy, pass catching back. 

Williams is a second-year pro who has been having a great camp and preseason. Both are worth late round darts until we get more clarity."

 
JFS171 said:
I’m keeping an eye on Caleb Huntley in Atlanta, largely because I don’t think Ollison is very good and we’ve never seen Mike Davis carry the load for a full season. Hawkins caught pub early, but he’s a scat back fighting to make the roster. Huntley’s significantly bigger, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he started pushing Ollison. 
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In Friday’s final preseason game, Mike Davis didn’t play. Huntley started, which originally led me to believe that Ollison was also being rested. Instead, it appears that Huntley played over Ollison. 

Per the play-by-play, Ollison doesn’t make an appearance until almost the end of the third quarter. I’m not suggesting he gets cut or anything, but it’s plausible. Huntley is the unknown and may have already passed Ollison, and is sitting right behind an injury-prone, unproven starter in Davis.

 
Names I am still interested in after preseason:

Chris Evans--I see no path to relevancy barring Mixon injury, but if there WAS a Mixon injury, Samaje Perine would be a stain on the bottom of Evans' cleats. 
Ty'son Williams--I'll take the #2 RB on the Ravens or 49ers, no matter what their name is. Fraction of the price of Mostert. 
JJ Taylor--I think it could be a sneaky move to draft last round, juuust in case they cut James White. 
Caleb Huntley--Davis has never had a lot of touches, and is 28. Huntley beat out Hawkins, who people liked.
Tony Jones--Draft now, if they drop Latavius as rumored, his value jumps. 
Ty Johnson-Opportunity.
 

 
massraider said:
Names I am still interested in after preseason:

Chris Evans--I see no path to relevancy barring Mixon injury, but if there WAS a Mixon injury, Samaje Perine would be a stain on the bottom of Evans' cleats. 
 
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I've shied away from the Bengals backup lottery ticket because I projected it to be a Perine / Evans split.  Of the two, I was probably leaning Perine.   I thought he did pretty nice job in relief of Mixon last season.   It sounds like you feel pretty good about Evans running away with the top job if Mixon falls.   This is definitely a good backfield to figure out given Mixon's history.

 
massraider said:
Names I am still interested in after preseason:

Chris Evans--I see no path to relevancy barring Mixon injury, but if there WAS a Mixon injury, Samaje Perine would be a stain on the bottom of Evans' cleats. 
Ty'son Williams--I'll take the #2 RB on the Ravens or 49ers, no matter what their name is. Fraction of the price of Mostert. 
JJ Taylor--I think it could be a sneaky move to draft last round, juuust in case they cut James White. 
Caleb Huntley--Davis has never had a lot of touches, and is 28. Huntley beat out Hawkins, who people liked.
Tony Jones--Draft now, if they drop Latavius as rumored, his value jumps. 
Ty Johnson-Opportunity.
 
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Ollison is no longer the #2 in ATL?

 
JFS171 said:
In Friday’s final preseason game, Mike Davis didn’t play. Huntley started, which originally led me to believe that Ollison was also being rested. Instead, it appears that Huntley played over Ollison. 

Per the play-by-play, Ollison doesn’t make an appearance until almost the end of the third quarter. I’m not suggesting he gets cut or anything, but it’s plausible. Huntley is the unknown and may have already passed Ollison, and is sitting right behind an injury-prone, unproven starter in Davis.
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OR they just want to see more of what they may have in Huntley?

 
Helaire-ious said:
OR they just want to see more of what they may have in


Huntley


?
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To be determined. I don't think anyone really knows. 

My interest is the same in Tony Jones. A UDFA back is an unknown. If they make a team, and there's some JAGs standing in their way, I'll watchlist them. There's a fair amount of talk that Latavius might get cut, and that Huntley has had a good camp.  

 
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