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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

I've been picking up shares of Justice Hill in every single league I'm in; dynasty and redraft.

I know it's been said before but there is a very real possibility that Hill plays the Kamara roll in Baltimore this year.

No other RB on the Ravens has Justice's skill set or explosiveness and he's going to force the Ravens to give him touches and design plays with him in mind.
I'm having a hard time guessing his value. What is he now... like a low-end flex player or RB3 with the potential to become a high-end RB2? 

 
I'm having a hard time guessing his value. What is he now... like a low-end flex player or RB3 with the potential to become a high-end RB2? 
If he’s being compared to Kamara doesn’t that give him potential for RB1 type numbers?

Im dropping CJ Anderson for him in a short bench redraft league after reading this thread and the Ingram thread.

 
Who would be some deeper cuts for the RB lotto group? Most of the guys talked about so far are early rookie draft picks. I am talking 4th round guys when all the obvious potentials are gone
I think those guys have been mentioned...

Ty Johnson, Ozigbo, Crockett, Dex Williams, etc

 
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Montgomery showed some nice flashes as a slot WR in his rookie season in GB and then the RB experiment happened. He has stuck around the league and managed to earn a second NFL contract, so in some respects his career hasn't been a failure, but to this day I still think he had a higher ceiling at WR. I agree that he's very "meh" as a RB. He had his opportunity in GB and wasn't able to take it. I don't see him ever being the guy for anyone.

 
To update “for completeness”

BUF - Devin Singletary

should probably add TJ Yeldon to the list. Even more meh than Ty Montgomery (who actually looked good this summer in the WR portion of his role) but I guess in theory he offers more upside than old man Gore.

Singletary is expected to be in a “feature back” role according to some beat writers, but until we see it I presume it’s a 3-headed rbbc. You can’t legislate usage, but eventually I expect the rookie to command the majority of touches based on talent.

 
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To update “for completeness”

BUF - Devin Singletary

should probably add TJ Yeldon to the list. Even more meh than Ty Montgomery (who actually looked good this summer in the WR portion of his role) but I guess in theory he offers more upside than old man Gore.

Singletary is expected to be in a “feature back” role according to some beat writers, but until we see it I presume it’s a 3-headed rbbc. You can’t legislate usage, but eventually I expect the rookie to command the majority of touches based on talent.
Added Yeldon.

Added Singletary to the "cat is out of the bag list"  😊

 
Today I updated the list at the top of the 1st page of this thread based on all the comments of the last few days.

There are currently almost 40 RBs on the list.

I would like to hear everyone's opinion on this:  What are your Top 5 that would would grab if you could?

 
FYI - thought I saw a headline John Kelly got cut by the Rams?

IDK about top 5....I got Guice, Henderson, Hill, Singletary and Edmonds for my RB3-RB7, so that’s my top 5.

:P

 
Not sure if this fits the thread ...

but Chase Edmonds is a very capable 3 down back if anything were to go wrong with David Johnson.

probably more like a “keep your eye on” type of player rather than a draft pick. Redraft of course. He should be 100% in any dynasty league.

 
Today I updated the list at the top of the 1st page of this thread based on all the comments of the last few days.

There are currently almost 40 RBs on the list.

I would like to hear everyone's opinion on this:  What are your Top 5 that would would grab if you could?


So the list has so many RBs because there are two kinds of lotto tickets on there: guys who will be drafted as rb3/4s, and guys who might go undrafted completely. 

I see the likely undrafted guys as lotto picks, because you are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

My top 5 true "lotto picks" from the list in no order:

Ty Johnson

Darwin Thompson

Dare Ogunbowale 

Brian Hill

Devine Ozigbo

Guys like Hill, Singletary, Harris, etc are likely drafted and likely pay off in some form. I wouldnt call them lotto picks (but I do like those 3 a lot)

 
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Not sure if this fits the thread ...

but Chase Edmonds is a very capable 3 down back if anything were to go wrong with David Johnson.

probably more like a “keep your eye on” type of player rather than a draft pick. Redraft of course. He should be 100% in any dynasty league.
If they run 70-75 Air Raid plays per game, and trail often, there’s a good chance he exceeds 150 rushing attempts + targets....and that’s if DJ stays healthy for 16.

 
Justice Hill has juice. I was going to pick him up in a draft but got drilled by ilov80s before it came back to me. 
Howdy rockaction - guess its been nearly a year since we talked.

 Remember this sir.  :)

 JUSTICE HILL can be a KING MAKER (as we are prone to call it) if Ingram goes down.   I snagged Ingram/Hill also in my biggest league.   THEN nabbed Hill in my 10 teamer redraft to warm my bench whilst the season progresses.  (My buddy said after I acquired Hill in the 10th) "I KNEW THAT WAS COMING".

 I back up my picks, and the ones I tout I try and get everywhere.   Although he's not the biggest bruising back,  Hill's tape is just flat crazy. Not saying he is the next KAMARA , but he is absolutely elite when it comes to speed, and he can catch better than many realize.   31 receptions in 2017. 

 You can get him cheap, and he is one of the best lotto RBs you can acquire. 

 TZM

 
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 Just as an offhand question.... I guess you and "ilove80s" are in a league together?     Inquiring minds want to know.

Wouldn't mind getting in that one next year, if I can. Seems like a challenge to be in a league with other shark members.

  :football:

 TZM

 
Howdy rockaction - guess its been nearly a year since we talked.
Hey TZM - Yeah, it has. Hill can easily make kings if he gets the chance. Haven't seen burst like that in a while. Missed out on him in another draft tonight, but it won't happen in my main league. Locked-in, dialed, you name it. 

 
Just as an offhand question.... I guess you and "ilove80s" are in a league together?     Inquiring minds want to know.

Wouldn't mind getting in that one next year, if I can. Seems like a challenge to be in a league with other shark members.

  :football:

 TZM
Yeah, we are. The league...well, it's a combination music/football draft. If you go over to the FFA and look for the "Summerpalooza II" thread, you'll understand what it is by reading the thread. Basically, it's a fantasy football draft/created song playlist whereby you pick a player and pick an appropriate song to go with the player. (Last year it was different requirements, next year will be different, etc.) It's fun as heck. It's all of us that do the music drafts in the FFA playing fantasy football. All picks require a song, every transaction during the year does.

If there are openings for next year, I'll be sure to ask. We reduced from sixteen teams to twelve this year, so maybe we could bump up to sixteen teams again if interest is there. It's highly casual, but it's almost as competitive, football-wise, as my main league. So there's that. It's a Superflex league, so essentially a 2 QB league if you play it that way.  Fun stuff.

 
Yeah, we are. The league...well, it's a combination music/football draft. If you go over to the FFA and look for the "Summerpalooza II" thread, you'll understand what it is by reading the thread. Basically, it's a fantasy football draft/created song playlist whereby you pick a player and pick an appropriate song to go with the player. (Last year it was different requirements, next year will be different, etc.) It's fun as heck. It's all of us that do the music drafts in the FFA playing fantasy football. All picks require a song, every transaction during the year does.

If there are openings for next year, I'll be sure to ask. We reduced from sixteen teams to twelve this year, so maybe we could bump up to sixteen teams again if interest is there. It's highly casual, but it's almost as competitive, football-wise, as my main league. So there's that. It's a Superflex league, so essentially a 2 QB league if you play it that way.  Fun stuff.
Damn, had no idea this existed. Must have gotten too far off the music draft rail. I might be interested next year.

 
Damn, had no idea this existed. Must have gotten too far off the music draft rail. I might be interested next year.
Yeah, you used to do a lot of the music drafts, didn't you? I saw a lot of those when I first joined. Northern Voice and Eephus kind of came up with the idea last year, and we did it. It worked out well. It's pretty light-hearted, and free, yet people were attentive to their teams and it was competitive. Just gotta draft songs is all. No chore. I'll keep you in mind when it starts up and mention that there's interest in it from people who haven't participated yet. See where it goes from there. 

 
Yeah, you used to do a lot of the music drafts, didn't you? I saw a lot of those when I first joined. Northern Voice and Eephus kind of came up with the idea last year, and we did it. It worked out well. It's pretty light-hearted, and free, yet people were attentive to their teams and it was competitive. Just gotta draft songs is all. No chore. I'll keep you in mind when it starts up and mention that there's interest in it from people who haven't participated yet. See where it goes from there. 
Yeah, I was part of that initial wave of drafts, but work got in the way for awhile.

 
So the list has so many RBs because there are two kinds of lotto tickets on there: guys who will be drafted as rb3/4s, and guys who might go undrafted completely. 

I see the likely undrafted guys as lotto picks, because you are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

My top 5 true "lotto picks" from the list in no order:

Ty Johnson

Darwin Thompson

Dare Ogunbowale 

Brian Hill

Devine Ozigbo

Guys like Hill, Singletary, Harris, etc are likely drafted and likely pay off in some form. I wouldnt call them lotto picks (but I do like those 3 a lot)
After Week 1 many of the names will migrate to the "too late"-"the cat is out of the bag" portion of the list and the list will become more "pure" Lotto.

I'm curious @Dr. Dan D. Henderson LAR is noticeably absent (at least from my perspective) from your post - reason?

 
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After Week 1 many of the names will migrate to the "too late"-"the cat is out of the bag" portion of the list and the list will become more "pure" Lotto.

I'm curious @Dr. Dan D. Henderson LAR is noticeably absent (at least from my perspective) from your post - reason?


A lotto ticket, to me, costs almost nothing, and is easily expendable for the next lotto ticket, but has potential to win you your season.

Henderson, Hill, Harris, Singletary should never be cut during the season. Lotto tickets, in my mind, are easily cut from one week to the next. 

So to answer your question, I dont consider him a lotto ticket. He is a very high upside RB4. 

eta: if we are including those guys then my top 5 lotto tickets are: Harris, Henderson, Hill, Singletary, Murray

 
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A lotto ticket, to me, costs almost nothing, and is easily expendable for the next lotto ticket, but has potential to win you your season.... Lotto tickets, in my mind, are easily cut from one week to the next.
Hey!  I like that a lot - valuable to keep in mind.  I quoted you inside the list on the 1st page @Dr. Dan 😀

 
Who would be some deeper cuts for the RB lotto group? Most of the guys talked about so far are early rookie draft picks. I am talking 4th round guys when all the obvious potentials are gone




i'm intrigued by travis homer in deeper leagues. profiles a bit like nyheim hines and grades well as a pass protector, so he could find his way onto the field. he'd need help to be fantasy relevant, but the guy has some quicks and is generally being ignored in the fantasy world.

but i dont think there's anyone who could come out of the gate (like lindsay last year) that hasn't already been mentioned...

 
i'm intrigued by travis homer in deeper leagues. profiles a bit like nyheim hines and grades well as a pass protector, so he could find his way onto the field. he'd need help to be fantasy relevant, but the guy has some quicks and is generally being ignored in the fantasy world.

but i dont think there's anyone who could come out of the gate (like lindsay last year) that hasn't already been mentioned...
Added Homer to the list.

 
Not sure if this fits the thread ...

but Chase Edmonds is a very capable 3 down back if anything were to go wrong with David Johnson.

probably more like a “keep your eye on” type of player rather than a draft pick. Redraft of course. He should be 100% in any dynasty league.
I think he's one of the best backup RBs in the NFL. I'm curious to see what he looks like this year. He showed some nice flashes last season and they handled him with kiddie gloves this preseason, suggesting they view him as an important player. He didn't even get a touch in week 4 of the preseason.

The issue is that DJ has 2 more years on his deal and Edmonds has 3, so you may need some type of trade or injury for him to have real value.

 
Updated the list on page 1:  Added Troymaine Pope LAC and a link to ESPN reporting Gordon will miss at least Week 1.

 
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Kenyan Drake is looking better with Fitzy being named starting QB. Ballage looks terrible. Drake had 1000 total yards on 170 touches and Nine touchdowns last season. If he stays healthy and can add 50 touches with potential for more with Gore gone then Drake is going to way outperform his ADP.

 
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Just a little bump-date to Ryquell Armstead - Jags dropped Blue, making Armstead one injury away from a feature back role. 

And since that one injury would be to Fournette, that’s a pretty above average chance lottery ticket. 

Not rooting for injury, just sayin.  Worthy of an update IMO. 

 
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I think Kareem Hunt has to be on here.  He is going in the later-ish rounds.

Dude would win you your 'ship if something happened to Chubb.  Probably has stand alone value later in the season and in the playoffs too.  Same with CJ Anderson.

I know we all want to be the genius who calls out the shiny rookie, but these are proven chiseled vets sitting 2 on their respective depth charts that stand to be RB1s (again) if something happens to the incumbent.

EDIT: (maybe CJ isn't "chiseled," but the point remains 🤣) and I'd consider removing Hyde at this point...
little out of the box from the typical player on this list, but I was just about to say the same thing.

 
any chance a FA RB like Jay Ajayi catches on somewhere?
IMO no. Lot of teams have already had clear needs and passed. But then again, see below.

Just a little bump-date to Ryquell Armstead - Jags dropped Blue, making Armstead one injury away from a feature back role. 

And since that one injury would be to Fournette, that’s a pretty above average chance lottery ticket. 

Not rooting for injury, just sayin.  Worthy of an update IMO. 
Ryquell is very raw and had a rough TC. I get what you’re saying about the obvious. Fournette has missed 3 or more games three years running going back to his senior year. But I doubt Armstead would have much value as I think he’ll be in a rbbc with Ozigbo - vn preseason with Saints - and/or they’ll sign an Ajayi or or Collins or Ware. But they’re def thin behind their star.

 
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And we're back!

In 2016, 2017 and 2018 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2019 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential King Makers - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.), or if you have an upcoming draft, a late round flyer.  The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

To paraphrase @Dr. Dan from 2019:  "A lotto ticket, to me, costs almost nothing, and is easily expendable for the next lotto ticket, but has potential to win you your season. ... Lotto tickets, in my mind, are easily cut from one week to the next."

Personally, I don't have time to watch film and I only follow pros so I cruise the forums and listen to FBG's podcasts.  I am going to give the list a jump start by plagiarizing content various sites.

Candidates for Season Changing RBs for re-draft 2019, completely unranked:


[*]KC - Darrel Williams

[*]BUF - Devin Singletary

[*]BAL - Justice Hill - has been getting HUGE love on this thread

[*]BAL - Gus Edwards per @IHEARTFF and @Casting Couch

[*]TBB - Dare Ogunbowale

  • quoting @Dr. Dan "Arians' offense involves 80-100+ targets to his RBs"
  • per @SoBeDad "Dare Ogunbowale as a 3rd down back. He looked good against Miami and Ronald Jones still hasn't done anything. Barber is JAG."

[*]DAL - Tony Pollard

[*]NE - Damien Harris

[*]DET - CJ Anderson

[*]DET - Ty Johnson

  • per @Football Jones "wouldn't be surprising if he passes CJ at some point"
  • and @Snorkelson "I like ty Johnson if kerryon goes down over cjanderson"
  • per @BobbyLayne "He's a nice satellite back who is quicker then a Tesla, but ain’t no way he’s passing Kerryon - but he has value in his current role even with a healthy KJ"

[*]HOU - Damarea Crockett - per @zamboni

  • @EBF states:  "I think there's a chance that Crockett is the best back on the roster, but I can imagine it taking half a season for him to plant his flag"
  • @socrates states: "I agree.  It may take an injury or lack of production from Duke to thrust Crockett into a starting role."
  • And HOU has added Carlos Hyde

[*]HOU - Carlos Hyde - traded from KC to HOU

[*]GB - Jamal Williams per @BobbyLayne

[*]GB - Dexter Williams per @Dr. Dan stating: "If Aaron Jones gets hurt I think Dexter could shine" and agreed upon by @leftcoastheel

[*]OAK - Deandre Washington per @Iceman03 : "Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams"

[*]OAK - Jalen Richard And DeAndre Washington - per @joey

[*]CHI - Ryan Nall per @Iceman03  : "Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams"

[*]MIN - Alexander Mattison

[*]MIN - Mike Boone per @Iceman03 : "Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams"

[*]ATL - Brian Hill

  • overtakes Ito Smith per @leftcoastheel
  • per @leftcoastheel "measurables aren't outstanding, but he is a good player generating some buzz in the preseason.  Also, great offense, and incumbents with big question marks"

[*]BAL - Kenneth Dixon per @zeeshan2 and @JFS171

[*]NYJ - Ty Montgomery suggested by @Tanner9919

[*]NO - Dwayne Washington per @Iceman03 stating Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams

[*]NO - Latavius Murray per @-X- also, @yoman states "I don't think Murray is by any means a great back but he is in an ideal situation with one of the best rushing offense in the NFL and I doubt they want to run Kamara to the ground  I think he will be a solid flex play unless there is an injury to Kamara"

[*]NO - Devine Ozigbo per @Dr. Dan stating:  Latavius Murray has a pretty lengthy injury history. I wouldnt expect him to play a complete season. Ozigbo is similar to Murray in terms of the role they would be expected to play in the NO offense (The "Ingram role").

[*]JAX - Ryquell Armstead per @IHEARTFF - UPDATE per @Hot Sauce Guy  - A. Blue cut making Armstead the clear backup to Fournette

[*]CIN - Samaje Perine  per @IHEARTFF - UPDATE: cut by WAS, signed by CIN

[*]SF - Matt Breida per @Mongidig with @Tanner9919 agreeing

[*]BUF - TJ Yeldon per @BobbyLayne

[*]SEA - Travis Homer per @strong

[*]CLE - Kareem Hunt per @leftcoastheel and agreed by @Long Ball Larry

Former Candidates - the cat is out of the bag on these and probably no longer qualify (WW, late round flyer) but I'm referencing them instead of outright deleting them for completeness - this is a "cast a wide net" thread and who knows, in some of the millions of leagues he might still be available - stranger things have happened.

  • LAC - Austin Ekeler - Probable starter if Gordan holds out into the season
  • BUF - Singletary - per @BobbyLayne - however, with the release of Shady, coach speak is now calling him the starter
  • HOU - Duke Johnson - Lamar Miller has a possible torn ACL - UPDATE: HOU signed Carlos Hyde
Thoughts?  Opinions?

P.S. I want to give a shout out to @SameSongNDance for starting this annual tradition back in 2016!

P.S.S. I want to give a shout out to @Mr. Irrelevant on his excellent thread 2017 Trends that could repeat in 2018.  Could you please write one for 2019?

And I thank the following past contributors (not mentioned earlier):  @Stompin' Tom Connors @Buck Bradcanon @davearm @Football Jones @Long Ball Larry @The Dude @bicycle_seat_sniffer @Ilov80s @Ted Lange as your Bartender @4th and Inches @zamboni @cloppbeast @MindBomb @hardcoredx @IHEARTFF ...if you were a contributor in the past and I left your name out I apologize.
One name that could be interesting (and I don't believe was mentioned previously) is the immortal Frank Gore. Not really the "sexy" name as he's the opposite of the young/ up-&-coming RB, but he just keeps sticking around and is apparently the co-starter in BUF. 

 
One name that could be interesting (and I don't believe was mentioned previously) is the immortal Frank Gore. Not really the "sexy" name as he's the opposite of the young/ up-&-coming RB, but he just keeps sticking around and is apparently the co-starter in BUF. 
If you want to win I wouldn't be dependent on him. There is no way he is going to get enough consistent work to warrant being a weekly start. 

 
If you want to win I wouldn't be dependent on him. There is no way he is going to get enough consistent work to warrant being a weekly start. 
Of course; no way I’d be looking to depend on him; but if Singletary gets dinged up, it’s just Gore & Yeldon behind him. 

That said; if the above happens and I’m looking at injuries/ bye weeks later in the season, I can definitely see him having a RB3/flex floor. 

By no means a king maker; but don’t need that necessarily to help your fantasy team out. 

 
Of course; no way I’d be looking to depend on him; but if Singletary gets dinged up, it’s just Gore & Yeldon behind him. 

That said; if the above happens and I’m looking at injuries/ bye weeks later in the season, I can definitely see him having a RB3/flex floor. 

By no means a king maker; but don’t need that necessarily to help your fantasy team out. 
It's amazing that he is still playing and he hasn't missed many games in his career. Even if there are injuries to the Bills starters I think they will sign someone off the street before they give him enough carries to be fantasy relevant.  For that reason I would have a hard time starting him - I doubt he can handle 20+ touches a game. The final nail in the coffin is that the Bills offensive line is expected to be mediocre at best this season.

 
Kenyan Drake is looking better with Fitzy being named starting QB. Ballage looks terrible. Drake had 1000 total yards on 170 touches and Nine touchdowns last season. If he stays healthy and can add 50 touches with potential for more with Gore gone then Drake is going to way outperform his ADP.
He was on a marginally better team last year that didn't just trade away their best two players...but I actually agree. 

Drake is easily their best receiver out of the backfield which should be a very valuable in Miami. The line won't be able to stop pressure and the RB dump off is going to be a necessity.

They are also going to be playing behind all season so expect I expect they will need to pass much more than they would prefer. 

Flores also comes from New England and knows the value of using short passes to as an alternative to the running game when needed. So I don't assume he will be a Marvin Lewis, three yards and a cloud of dust, type just because he comes.from the defensive side of the ball.

So, despite being in the worst team in the league I am cautiously optimistic about Drake this season 

 
He was on a marginally better team last year that didn't just trade away their best two players...but I actually agree. 

Drake is easily their best receiver out of the backfield which should be a very valuable in Miami. The line won't be able to stop pressure and the RB dump off is going to be a necessity.

They are also going to be playing behind all season so expect I expect they will need to pass much more than they would prefer. 

Flores also comes from New England and knows the value of using short passes to as an alternative to the running game when needed. So I don't assume he will be a Marvin Lewis, three yards and a cloud of dust, type just because he comes.from the defensive side of the ball.

So, despite being in the worst team in the league I am cautiously optimistic about Drake this season 
Ballage didn't impress in the preseason, but he had some great plays late last year after Gore went down. He has size, straight line speed, can block and catch, and is the gl back. I'm not sure how it'll play out.

 

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