Season's already underway so I doubt anyone will spend a lot of time reading this, but what the hell. Here's the thoughts I captured during the draft:
1.12 - George Kittle, TE3 SF (2018: TE3)
After Kelce and Ertz went 4 and 6 overall, I wasn't expecting Kittle to fall to 12. There's a case to be made that they should go 1-2-3 in this format. Young, uber-athletic, in a pass-friendly offense, and gets a significant QB upgrade. Moderate playoff potential.
2.05 - Mike Evans, WR9 TB (2018: WR12)
Had Crippler taken Evans and left me deciding between head-case Brown and injury mystery Gurley, my draft could have gone far differently. Fortunately, I didn't have to make that choice. I'll sacrifice playoff points for a perennial WR1 with monster upside in a huck-it chuck-it system. Low playoff potential.
3.12 - Amari Cooper, WR18 DAL (2018: WR16)
My first share of Cooper anywhere; his WR13 ADP is too rich for my blood in season-long. But in a draft-and-done format, on a likely contender, at a WR18 price tag, he was my third straight no-brainer pick. High playoff potential.
4.05 - Texans (Deshaun Watson), TMQB2 HOU (2018: QB8)
I expected QBs to fall in these drafts as they've done everywhere else this year but ... even in 2019's other Anarchies, an average of 5.8 other QBs went off the board prior to this pick. So I wasn't expecting the consensus QB2 on a team that just lost its best non-Watson option for yards and TDs to fall into my lap at 53 overall. Four straight no-brainers! High playoff potential.
5.12 - Alshon Jeffery, WR29 PHI (2018: WR21)
I expected more of a WR run after my Cooper selection, but RBs drafted have still (bafflingly IMO) outnumbered WRs to this stage, leaving precious little value. Instead, another WR1 on a high-octane offense who's slipped well past ADP. Yes, Jeffery's health is a constant question, but when he plays he's among the near-elite. High playoff potential.
6.05 - Mark Andrews, TE14 BAL (2018: TE17)
Resisted the siren call of Josh Gordon, beautiful though the music sounded. As a raw rookie starting out 2018 as the third-string TE on an utterly dysfunctional offense, Andrews still finished TE17. All reports are that he's been dominant in camp and I expect Jackson to spend a lot of time looking for his trusted short-range target. 1,000 yards is not out of the question, IMO. Moderate playoff potential.
7.12 - Latavius Murray, RB35 NO (2018: RB33)
The positional tides have finally turned, as expected: 11 WRs off the board since my last pick and only 2 RBs. I'll kick off my RB corps with Murray, going 40+ picks behind 2018 Mark Ingram despite being signed to play a similar role and, oh, *not* facing a 4-game suspension. This may be Brees' last hurrah and I expect Payton to spell Kamara with Murray liberally in-season as they chase a Lombardi. High playoff potential.
8.05 - Dante Pettis, WR45 SF (2018: WR76)
Welp, it's official: I own Pettis in every single league I've drafted in the past month. I just can't see how a young 2nd-round wideout with great ball skills, in a Shanahan offense with an average-at-worst QB, with little meaningful competition, should be going as a WR4/5. I strongly believe he'll finish among the top 30 if healthy. Low playoff potential.
9.12 - Rashaad Penny, RB42 SEA (2018: RB58)
I'm obviously light at RB - not a death knell in this format, but nor do I want a stable full of pure handcuffs. Carson could be the next Alex Collins - I don't think so, but he could - and Seattle's O should be competent at worst as long as RW3 is out there. Moderate playoff potential.
10.05 - Wil Lutz, PK2 NO (2018: PK1)
The top PKs average about 45-55 points more than mid-tier guys with relatively little variance. That makes Lutz worth a mid-rounder, more so as the Saints are my pick for NFC champ. Butker was the other option, but last year showed that a too-efficient offense can actually hinder kicker scoring (he finished PK6 to Lutz' PK1). Very high playoff potential.
11.12 - Justice Hill, RB48 BAL (2018: n/a)
One of my highest-owned money-league players, he's a versatile chess piece with NFL talent both between the tackles and in space. Much as with Kamara under Payton, I expect Harbaugh to realize what he has early on and scheme the ball into his hands. I'm also (relatively) very bullish on the Ravens' offense this year. Moderate playoff potential.
12.05 - Cameron Brate, TE29 TB (2018: TE23)
Taking stock: Still need one of each position except for 2 DSTs (on which I plan to wait), plus a flex. Basically, I can just go BPA here. Even 3 catches a game from Brate would yield ~160 points, more than I can reasonably expect from any RB/WR still on the board, with upside based on Howard's track record suggesting he'll miss time at some point. Low playoff potential.
13.12 - Mason Crosby, PK13 GB (2018: PK8)
Probably the last kicker on the board with both job security and better-than-average playoff opportunity.
14.05 - Carlos Hyde, RB57 HOU (2018: RB46)
I'm a big Duke Johnson fan, but his career high in touches is 186; I doubt he's going to suddenly make it 300. Hyde will likely be limited to short-yardage and GL work but - in a league where the Mike Alstott Memorial stat line of 1/1/1 scores more than 11/44/0//3/15/0 - that matters. High playoff potential.
15.12 - Panthers, DST19 CAR (2018: DST27)
Much worse than expected last year. Spent nearly all of their FA and draft capital upgrading their defense. Should be much better than expected this year. Moderate playoff potential.
16.05 - Parris Campbell, WR79 IND (2018: n/a)
His talent, situation, health, offense, QB, all can be summed up in one emoji:
In other words, both ceiling and floor are almost unlimited, making him a perfect last skill-position pick in draft-and-done. Low playoff potential.
17.12 - Bengals (Andy Dalton), QB30 CIN (2018: QB20)
I nearly pulled the trigger on him in the 15th. Alone among the bottom quartile of QBs, he has a former QB coach at HC, Pro Bowl-caliber talents at RB/WR, and a truly atrocious defense. Taylor won't turn Dalton into Goff, but a mid-pack finish seems well within the range of outcomes. Low playoff probability.
18.05 - Cardinals, DST30 ARI (2018: DST27)
The importance of getting 400+ guaranteed points from the last two picks in the draft is tough to overstate. Playoffs? Playoffs?
I really loved my draft up until about the halfway point. Even now I'm not sure why I switched away from my original plan of waiting on RB and targeting high upside to grabbing falling "value" at RB and focusing more on floor than on ceiling. This squad would be a damn tough out in a Survivor league, but in Anarchy you need a couple of big breakouts from mid- / late-rounders to have a real shot at a title and my team offers very little chance of that. Looking forward to what seems to me like an inevitable 5th-place finish.
Best of luck to all this season.