jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Me tooCongrats to those who advanced. Hope one of the regulars wins.
Me tooCongrats to those who advanced. Hope one of the regulars wins.
And don't look now the Raiders just put the Carlson owners back in the game!Top 5 most owned players by position...
K - Fairbairn (1022), Butker (853), Vinatieri (726), Lambo (600), Carlson (520) - Carlson jumped Crosby this week
And don't look now the Raiders just put the Carlson owners back in the game!Top 5 most owned players by position...
K - Fairbairn (1022), Butker (853), Vinatieri (726), Lambo (600), Carlson (520) - Carlson jumped Crosby this week
Vegas123 said:Thur week 7
3238 (Score: 156.25) This week Just enough
QB AVE 30.77
RB 1 AVE 24.67
RB 2 AVE 17.21
WR 1 AVE 22.51
WR 2 AVE 14.47
TE AVE 17.4
Flex 1 15.22
Flex 2 13.14
K Ave11.99
DEF AVE11.57
-------------------------
This is mine now (QG - just trying to salvage one of these bad repeat posts)
QB Avg 30.8
RB1 Avg 25.3
RB2 Avg 15.3
WR1 Avg 20.8
WR2 Avg 16.0
TE Avg 17.1
Flex1 Avg 15.2
Flex2 Avg 12.5
PK Avg 12.5
Def Avg 14.7
Total Average 180.3
Would feel better if it wasn't such a high scoring year
-QG
Two weeks later andI made it this week by 2.6 points. With Michael Thomas on bye I'm probably done here.
QB - Mitchell Trubisky
QB - Andy Dalton
QB - Joe Flacco
RB - Kareem Hunt
RB - Dalvin Cook
RB - Christian McCaffrey
RB - Doug Martin
RB - Darren Sproles
WR - Michael Thomas
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Tyler Lockett
WR - Mike Williams
WR - John Brown
WR - Dede Westbrook
TE - Charles Clay
TE - Austin Hooper
TE - Tyler Kroft
TE - Jake Butt
PK - Stephen Gostkowski
PK - Mason Crosby
PK - Josh Lambo
TD - Arizona Cardinals
TD - Atlanta Falcons
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My apologies to Gordon and Sturgis owners. Was almost certain the team was gonna crash and burn when Gordon sat and my lone kicker week 7 drops a goose.Set this lineup in advance & meant to come back and clean up my picks before the deadline. Kinda glad I didn't. Week 7 doesn't look too scary even with Ben, Brown, Connor and SeaBass out. Hoping there are plenty of skating Connor owners who will help me out. Be kind Turk.
Name Still Alive Survival %
B Roethlisberger 617 36.15
J Goff 819 35.42
M Gordon 569 47.3
L Miller 663 27.08
C McCaffrey 1555 36.22
J Conner 5417 53.2
J Samuels 43 49.43
A Brown 1424 34.06
M Crabtree 115 19.07
J Edelman 170 23.74
A Thielen 746 47.86
K Britt 30 22.06
N Agholor 389 33.11
T Burton 1569 40.58
R Seals-Jones 598 37.61
S Janikowski 349 30.67
C Sturgis 468 39.03
Colts 189 36.49
Browns 1383 41.27
28 people on my roster. Only 3 have not counted so far. Don’t worry you are not screwed, I can’t imagine this team taking me to the promised land.Please tell me you have a small stud-filled roster, because we are all screwed if you are averaging 216 with a deep value-filled one. I have only been over 200 once, and that was week 1. I am averaging 186.3.
Same* for me, missed by 3. Yes it is disappointing to not continue on in this great contest.I'm out by 3.5 points. Made it to the top 250 last year, was hoping for more. Dalvin Cook finally caught up with me this week. I'm not going to lie, it hurts..it hurts.
We should start a lessons learned in here for next yearI lied. I can't just leave. I'm eliminated but want to see what's up. I enjoy this thread. Good luck to those still in it; I hope a bunch of regular board members survive and advance with a shot at a prize of some sort.
Stay healthy and a little bit lucky?We should start a lessons learned in here for next year
You really should invest in a better crystal ball dude.Stay healthy and a little bit lucky?
I was kidding. I can't figure this contest out. All I can do is follow trends and try and pick the best players. This was the furthest I've ever gotten. I need to switch up what I'm doing.You really should invest in a better crystal ball dude.
Haha, yeah, that tooStay healthy and a little bit lucky?
OK, as a fun test, please post your team. Let's see if the masses can spot any flaws, and more important, provide a reason for those flaws.I was kidding. I can't figure this contest out. All I can do is follow trends and try and pick the best players. This was the furthest I've ever gotten. I need to switch up what I'm doing.
I can list it, but I never figured out how to post it, otherwise I would have. It'll take a moment.OK, as a fun test, please post your team. Let's see if the masses can spot any flaws, and more important, provide a reason for those flaws.
What is your team number?Do you know how to post it through copy and paste at all?
Can't speak for everyone, but for me the deciding factor wasn't the extra $3, it was the bye week.But seriously, with a bit of logic and research, trends should have been spotted. For example, I chose David Johnson. He has been fairly consistent, just not putting up the kind of #'s expected. I wasn't worried about his injury last year, so I didn't avoid him. What I should've been looking at was the overall regression in ARI's offense. I considered it, but not to the extent they would suck as bad as they do. Were the flags there already? Coaching staff, O-Line and QB play? Did anyone really think Sam Bradford was gonna be special? A journeyman on his 4th team since 2014? A guy with a career 5/3 TD/INT ratio? There's a reason he's a journeyman, but all I saw was a RB who will catch 100 passes, and get 2000 total yards. I'm sure I am not alone here, as he was the 12th most common RB. 1874 people chose DJ vs 2201 for Gurley, who went for only $3 more. Most everyone expected the Rams to be a high scoring offense, so Gurley should've doubled DJ in ownership for this contest.
Yes, I did avoid late bye guys, but I missed out on some killer deals...Can't speak for everyone, but for me the deciding factor wasn't the extra $3, it was the bye week.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/111282.php111282
Hahaha - I just got through ragging on Sam Bradford, and lo and behold, there he is!http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/111282.php
OK, let's see if we can get some feedback...
Sunk costs were him, Hill. There was too much money in kickers, no Conner, listening to Pete Carroll, bye weeks.Hahaha - I just got through ragging on Sam Bradford, and lo and behold, there he is!
Conner was a gimme, for anyone that actually entered their final submission near the cutoff date.Sunk costs were him, Hill. There was too much money in kickers, no Conner, listening to Pete Carroll, bye weeks.
I didn't. I didn't alter it. As soon as the deadline passed, I kicked myself. But he doesn't save me this week. They're on bye.Conner was a gimme, for anyone that actually entered their final submission near the cutoff date.
Still in. Averaging 192 per week. Big bye week with a lot of falcons on my roster. Not too worried about QB with maholmes and Goff but def worried about WR.So this was the last amount of thought I've ever put into an entry form, and I (**knocks on wood**) may actually have a shot at a deep run this year.
QB - Ryan/Goff/Mahomes/Darnold-- went with three mid-priced options and threw Darnold in for $3 b/c he had the starting job and figured it was a good risk in a bestball format
RB - Barkley/Coleman/Cohen/Hyde/Carson-- I have James Conner everywhere in fantasy but I'm an idiot and didn't put him on my squad here.
WR - Hogan/Cobb/Fuller/Stills/Ridley/Richardson -- No huge names but pretty deep group here.
TE - Brate/Cook/Hooper -- meh
K - Gould/Butker/Lambo
DEF - Pats/Chiefs/Falcons-- lol bad, though my logic was Chiefs have playmakers that can score TDs and Pats played in a #### division, and I figured Atlanta wouldn't immediately lose several guys to season ending injuries, but yeah this doesn't look too good
Entry 112219
201.9
197.8
212.8 with Brate still to go tonight (#82 overall)
Watch as I get knocked out next week
I don't claim to be an "expert", having only finished in the money once, but my take is:Sunk costs were him, Hill, Too much money in kickers, no Conner, listening to Pete Carroll, bye weeks.
QB'sSo there's something else wrong in its construction.
Dam, what an excellent post! I am still gonna continue to break my posts down by position, but what he says above is basically all my thoughts. Well done!I don't claim to be an "expert", having only finished in the money once, but my take is:
1. Too much $ on QBs. There just isn't enough production difference between high-end QBs and mid-tier QBs to justify spending on the high-cost guys, and you have what I see as 2 high-cost guys. That's compounded by adding 2 low-expectation guys. If you're spending $32 on Brees and Ben, do you really need 2 more guys? Or, if you think Bradford and Darnold are bargains that will really produce, do you need both Brees and Ben also? I'm a firm believer that 3 mid to low cost sure starters will score nearly as much as more expensive options. For example, I went Goff/Dalton/Tannehill for a total of $23, and they are producing about the same number of points as you got for $38 (of course, Mahomes instead of Goff would have been gold, but nobody can pick them all right). Even when your choices hit, it's likely you're wasting points and money (like Ben having 2 30+ point weeks that did nothing for you). Savings: $15.
2. Too much on high-end WRs. 1 or 2 of Hill/Diggs/Ju-Ju/Kupp would be enough if you add in a bunch of cheaper guys. The biggest difference between expensive WRs and cheap WRs is consistency, and if you throw a lot of cheap darts, it makes up for the lack of consistency. You could have easily saved $20-$25 or more there.
3. Not enough spent on TEs. At 1.5 ppr, they're extremely valuable in this format and can be a great source of flex points. Either a stud and a few mid-tier guys or a bunch of mid-tier guys is my recommendation. You went with 2 mids and it somewhat hurt you this week with only 14 points at the position. That's also a generally risky approach because TEs are very susceptible to injury and you risk having a week where one guy is injured and the other is on bye. In contrast, both my flex scores this week were TEs, who cost a total of $12. Personally, I Iike having at least 1 stud and several mid-tier TEs (I have Kelce/Cook/Hooper?Goedert), but if you don't want to go that high, you could at least have added Cook and Hooper for the savings you would have had at QB.
4. I agree with your "too much money in kickers" analysis. You got good scoring there, but 3 cheap kickers (for a $6-$9 total) could have given you about the same production and saved you $3-$6.
5. Although it isn't a big difference, I think the same strategy as kickers applies to defenses. Instead of $10 on 2, spread it out over 3-4 for the same or less money. $2 Cleveland and $3 Cincy are each just as likely to score as $6 NO.
6. At RB, I would have invested the savings from WR, K and D into some more solid options. Lynch, Carson, Powell and Hill were all risky propositions from the start (not to mention Carson and Lynch sharing a bye week). I guess that's where your "listening to Pete Carroll" comes in, but there were just too many options in that backfield, with a passing QB to rely on any one of them. I know there are some regulars here who think RB is not the place to spend money because of the .5 ppr, but outside of occasional guys like Conner (who are generally pretty obvious by the time lineups lock), the cheaper guys just don't produce big weeks like the more expensive ones at RB. So, you either need 2 or 3 top guys or you need to go shotgun approach like WR and get a lot of the cheap guys. My preference is stud-heavy there, but ymmv.
They were both excellent and yours drove home the QB points. Thanks again for your time, man.Dam, what an excellent post! I am still gonna continue to break my posts down by position, but what he says above is basically all my thoughts. Well done!
Did you read the one about RB's a few posts above? I forgot to quote you, so you may have missed it.They were both excellent and yours drove home the QB points. Thanks again for your time, man.
No, but I just did. That helps tremendously. apalmer said similar things. Spend some of the money from the Qbs and WRs and go with studs. You pointed out around one hundred. And I take your point about byes. Basically, it was an entry that made it through on the strength of the showings of the QBs, WRs, and cheap TEs that over performed. But the structure was off in the QBs and WRs having too much money, and the RBs and TEs not having enough. Plus, the distribution of the dollars among kickers and defenses could have been more best ball-ish. I see now.Did you read the one about RB's a few posts above? I forgot to quote you, so you may have missed it.
I just really really want FBG regulars to make it deep into this contest. It sux when the top guys are all math nerds who probably don't even like football.Really. That you guys would take the time to do that is so very cool. Damn.
I was just coming here to post that it’s nice to have a 3rd kicker back in the rotation.Really excited about a kicker I don't have obv...
-QG
Makes sense. It reminds me of the unlimited daily sites where you can enter as much as you want.I just really really want FBG regulars to make it deep into this contest. It sux when the top guys are all math nerds who probably don't even like football.