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2018 Elections Thread (2 Viewers)

Pat Meehan (R, PA, married) has been accused of harassment by a young aide and apparently received taxpayer cash.  He claims they were soul mates and isn't leaving the race.

 
joffer said:
came across this.  nice to see.
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went to an event from these guys tonight. it was a panel on science and public policy.  very interesting.   they had a couple local candidates introduce themselves as well.

Joseph Kopser was on the panel.  He’s running for the TX-21 that Lamar Smith is leaving.  Claims he out fundraised Smith 2:1 in the first quarter.  I’m not sure if that’s legit or not.  Very charismatic guy.  Moderate, veteran, entrepreneur, etc.  he could have a real shot there.

 
joffer said:
went to an event from these guys tonight. it was a panel on science and public policy.  very interesting.   they had a couple local candidates introduce themselves as well.

Joseph Kopser was on the panel.  He’s running for the TX-21 that Lamar Smith is leaving.  Claims he out fundraised Smith 2:1 in the first quarter.  I’m not sure if that’s legit or not.  Very charismatic guy.  Moderate, veteran, entrepreneur, etc.  he could have a real shot there.
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No gerrymandering here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas's_21st_congressional_district#/media/File:Texas_US_Congressional_District_21_(since_2013).tif

 
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There’s a guy running in the TX republican primary for governor against incumbent Greg Abbott who legally changed his middle name to SECEDE.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
Greg Orman revealed the not-big-secret that he’s running for Governor Of Kansas as an Independent.

I hope he wins.
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Hm. I like him, but what are the odds that he just fractures the (already outnumbered) left, allowing the R to coast to victory? I don't see a 2014 scenario arising again, where the dem nominee steps aside so Orman can take on the republican one-on-one.

 
Is it a foregone conclusion that nobody in the Republican party will challenge Trump in 2020? If Democrats get mired down in identity politics, somebody like Kasich could get elected.

I just realized what a big deal the catchphrase 20/20 will be in 2020.

 
Mister CIA said:
Is it a foregone conclusion that nobody in the Republican party will challenge Trump in 2020? If Democrats get mired down in identity politics, somebody like Kasich could get elected.

I just realized what a big deal the catchphrase 20/20 will be in 2020.
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Everyone should have seen that coming. 

 
As someone who grew up in NJ, pretty amazing to see him go.  The Frelinghuysen family is one of the great family political dynasties in US history -- going back to Revolutionary times.

 
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Here are the underlying Gallup state fav/unfav for the past year.  Somehow Texas is at 39/54.  For some persective, this is 38/56 nationally (ie for every poll result for the entire year) and right now it is 38/58 (so these numbers are a tick to the positive side for Trump).  

States EV with a favorable less than 40 is 257, if you include the ones at 40 it's 288, if you include the 41s its 354.

Also Texas and Arizona Senate races are really in play.  

http://news.gallup.com/poll/226454/trump-approval-highest-west-virginia-lowest-vermont.aspx?utm_source=twitterbutton&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=sharing

 
Now this is A+ work:

Democrat Randy Bryce will be sitting in the House gallery, but he hopes the shot from the State of the Union that people back in his Wisconsin district pay attention to is House Speaker Paul Ryan applauding in the frame behind President Donald Trump.
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“They’re working together, and the fact that they’re going to be standing so close to each other — Paul Ryan is literally going to have Donald Trump’s back — which is pretty much the way it’s been going for this past year,” said Bryce, who’s running against Ryan for his House seat back in Wisconsin.

The appearance will be paired with a new ad Bryce will air during the coverage of the speech on MSNBC attacking Ryan for working with Trump on the tax bill.

Bryce is the official guest of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.) who’s been holding supplemental town halls in Ryan’s district for months. They cooked up the stunt to push the idea that Ryan has been an absent presence in the district, ducking public events.

“Let me be a reminder of the district that he has decided not to represent for the last couple of years,” Bryce said. “I’m not coming here to do anything disruptive. I’m coming here to go back to the 1st district and let them know what’s going on, because Paul Ryan won’t do that.”

Ryan’s fellow Wisconsin Republican Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner called the invitation “disrespectful and out of bounds.”
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:lmao:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/30/paul-ryan-state-union-bryce-376817

 
Sammy3469 said:
TREY GOWDY WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111

Seriously is any Republican running a committee not retiring?
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Seung Min Kim‏Verified account @seungminkim

Seung Min Kim Retweeted Trey Gowdy

Because there are no coincidences in politics, I'll note that a seat on the Fourth Circuit (covers South Carolina) became vacant just *yesterday* http://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/current-judicial-vacancies …

 
Here's a great breakdown of the roadmap to taking the House for the Dems. I think 50/50 maybe slightly underestimates the Dem's chances, but it's definitely no sure thing.  If you see your district or a district near you listed there, no time like the present to get involved.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Here's a great breakdown of the roadmap to taking the House for the Dems. I think 50/50 maybe slightly underestimates the Dem's chances, but it's definitely no sure thing.  If you see your district or a district near you listed there, no time like the present to get involved.
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I think 50/50 may be about right though I think the two ends in the distribution are more in play than normal.  I think the probability that the Republicans increase their majority (gerrymandering), it's really close to even (weak wave), or it's a really big Dem wave (strong wave) are all more or less equal at this point.  That probably gets you to 50-50 netted, but not in the typical bell curve shape.

 
Sammy3469 said:
I think 50/50 may be about right though I think the two ends in the distribution are more in play than normal.  I think the probability that the Republicans increase their majority (gerrymandering), it's really close to even (weak wave), or it's a really big Dem wave (strong wave) are all more or less equal at this point.  That probably gets you to 50-50 netted, but not in the typical bell curve shape.
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I'm more skeptical than most of the "blue wave," but I also really don't think the other end of the spectrum is in play.  I can't imagine the GOP increasing their majority or even keeping it about even. Barring some monumental event that shifts public opinion I think their best case scenario is probably losing 5-10 seats.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Interesting article: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/opinion/sunday/republican-taxes-texas-blue.html

The GOP tax reform bill could turn red states blue. The bill is hostile to blue states and friendly to red states, which is great, but the effect could be to cause more young professionals to move to red states ... where they will proceed to vote Dem.
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Even if all the assumptions in the article are true, wouldn't this also have the possibility to change some blue states to red?  I mean, if a bunch of Democratic voters leave Pennsylvania to move to Georgia, it isn't clear to me that's a good deal for Dems.   

 
The Night the Democratic Party Committed Political Suicide

Wayne Allyn Root

Before I get to the embarrassment of the nasty, bitter State of the Union display by the Democratic Party, let me lead with great news.

First, the jobs front. Wednesday morning saw the release of ADP/Moody’s Analytics private payrolls report. New job creation exploded once again under President Trump. Businesses added 234,000 jobs in January versus an expected 185,000. Manufacturing added 12,000 jobs and construction 9,000 new jobs - in a traditionally slow month. WOW.

Secondly, the numbers from Trump’s State of the Union. Fox News had the biggest audience for a State of the Union in the history of cable news. The old record of 6.5 million viewers was smashed by smithereens by Trump with an astonishing 11.7 million viewers. It was also the highest rated presidential address of any kind in the history of cable news. 

Now to the reaction from viewers. CBS took an instant YouGov poll. Here are the amazing results. 

97 percent of Republican viewers liked Trump’s speech. 

72 percent of independents liked it.

Amazingly, 43 percent of Democrats liked it. 

Overall 75 percent of Americans approved of the speech. And a shocking 8 out of 10 felt President Trump was trying to unite the nation, rather than divide it. Two-thirds reported the speech made them feel proud. 

Which means anyone who isn’t a bitter, nasty, arrogant, hateful, Kool-Aid drinking socialist loved what they saw. Unfortunately, that leaves the entire Democrat Congress.

That’s why I report the Democratic Party committed political suicide on Tuesday night. Their response to Trump’s speech was out of bounds. It wasn’t normal. It was hateful. It was bizarre. Actually, in a word, it was “foreign.” The Democratic Party is now a foreign party in their own country. They no longer have any understanding of what people born in America think or feel. 

It's perfectly fine to be respectfully opposed to the politics of one party or president. That's acceptable. That’s as American as apple pie. But that’s not what happened on Tuesday night. 

Democrats were outed as the party that is rooting for America's failure. Rooting against a booming economy. Rooting for misery, instead of prosperity. Rooting against job creation. Rooting against a booming stock market. Rooting against employee bonuses. Angry about the lowest black unemployment ever. Angry about the lowest Hispanic unemployment ever. Angry at the lowest female unemployment in 18 years. 

They openly frowned, grimaced, groaned and looked sick to their stomachs when President Trump celebrated the American flag…the national anthem… American freedom… and American opportunity. Bizarre. Self-destructive behavior.

But wait it gets worse. Democrats appeared to be on the side of murderous MS-13 gangs. When Trump touted legislation to help stop gang violence, drug dealing and murder by vicious MS-13 gangs…and when Trump introduced the parents of two young girls murdered by MS-13 killers…Democrats booed and groaned. 

Democrats clearly believe discussing murders by illegal aliens is “racist.” Democrats clearly believe Trump has to be Hitler or KKK to publicly admit there are people of color (gasp) murdering innocent Americans. This was the second worst moment of disconnect in American political history.

Now to the single worst disconnect ever. Amnesty-loving Democratic Congressman Luis Gutierrez WALKED OUT upon hearing chants of “USA, USA!” It was too much for him. He appeared to be on the verge of tears. Democrats consoled him. To Democrats, it’s now “racist” to love your country.

The Democrats’ performance at the SOTU was shocking. Because if they had an ounce of common sense they could at least act like they love America, actlike patriots, act respectful to parents of kids murdered by illegal alien gangs. Any sane politician would have acted civil - just to fool enough voters to win elections. Not these Democrats. They suffer from TID - “Trump Insanity Disorder.” They are on tilt. Trump triggers them to acts of self-destruction. They’ve lost their minds.

Turn out the lights. There is no one left to support the Democratic Party we saw on Tuesday night, except for illegal aliens, radicals, Marxists, felons and welfare addicts. 

A booming economy is a step backwards to this group. The American flag is something to be ashamed of. God is a curse. And job creation is a sin. It's clear they are the party that wants to “MAKE AMERICA MISERABLE AGAIN.”

This was the night the Democratic Party committed political suicide.
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fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Even if all the assumptions in the article are true, wouldn't this also have the possibility to change some blue states to red?  I mean, if a bunch of Democratic voters leave Pennsylvania to move to Georgia, it isn't clear to me that's a good deal for Dems.   
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I think it would be more from New York and California — areas with the highest housing costs and state taxes.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Interesting article: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/opinion/sunday/republican-taxes-texas-blue.html

The GOP tax reform bill could turn red states blue. The bill is hostile to blue states and friendly to red states, which is great, but the effect could be to cause more young professionals to move to red states ... where they will proceed to vote Dem.
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I'm not sure I agree with the bolded conclusion but admittedly I don't have solid support for this feeling. It would seem that domestic migrants would sometimes tend to adopt the local political leanings in their new domicile. If you were fairly liberal, could you move to Gadsden, Alabama and maintain those beliefs in the face of overwhelming opposition from most people with whom you interact? 

Things change, people change. Hispanics in Texas could start voting Republican and nullify their gains in numbers. Millennials have overwhelmingly rejected the GOP but it seems the jury is still out on whether or not people tend to become more conservative as they age. Though it's hard for me to imagine, from a social point of view, how someone who values diversity and minority rights in their yoot could decide to overturn those values as they approach middle age.

One of the interesting things about voter demographics is their fluidity. A doesn't necessarily lead to B, instead it leads to sometimes B, sometimes C and sometimes with a larger trend towards D.

 
I do believe pretty strongly, however, that the millennials will be the GOP's biggest problems. They are an increasingly secular bunch, comfortable with cultural diversity. It's possible that Republicans will be able to find sympathy for their economic policies but those gains will be more than offset if they can't shed this White America First idiocy that's currently running the show.

Millennials are already the biggest voting bloc by age. If they ever get politically engaged, they have the power to determine the country's course for the next 50 years. Maybe they'll come up with something completely different in their approach to governance.

 
Heard M.J. Hegar talk on Friday and chatted for a few minutes.  Very impressive lady.  She’s running against John Carter in the Texas 31st, assuming she wins the primary.  That’s a tough challenge but she’s the right candidate.  Purple Heart and Distinguished Flying Cross winner in a district filled with veterans (Fort Hood).  I may decide to do some volunteer work for her campaign.

 
Outspoken Nazi will be Republican Nominee for Illinois Congressional Race

An outspoken neo-Nazi and Holocaust denier is set to become the Republican nominee for an Illinois congressional seat.

Arthur Jones, a 70-year-old retired insurance agent, told the Chicago Sun-Times he once led the American Nazi Party and heads up a group called the America First Committee, which excludes Jewish members. On Jones’ campaign website, under a section titled, “The ‘Holocaust’ racket,” he insists the murder of 6 million Jews was the “biggest blackest lie in history” and that the Holocaust amounted to “propaganda, whose purpose is designed to bleed, blackmail, extort and terrorize, the enemies of organized world Jewry.”

Jones is running unopposed in a highly Democratic district that includes a part of Chicago and is expected to be easily defeated in the general election.

According to his website, Jones is campaigning to, among other things, “bring our troops home NOW to defend our borders”; to end “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants and sanctuary cities; to make English the official language; and to fight an agenda he believes, that the federal government has to “change” neighborhoods “found to be too White, too Christian, or too straight.”

The Chicago Tribune reported that he opposes interracial marriage and school integration and was unsure when asked whether black people or Latinos should have the right to vote.

According to the Sun-Times, Jones protested the opening of the Illinois Holocaust Museum in 2009. Another time, when he spoke to a group of white supremacists, he said he regretted voting for Trump because the president “surrounded himself with hordes of Jews,” according to the Sun-Times. He told the Tribune he appeared in TV commercials dressed as a storm trooper and presented himself as “the White People’s Candidate” in 1976. In another election attempt, he advertised in the newspaper with swastikas, according to the Tribune. “I don’t believe in equality,” he told the paper.

Jones has run repeatedly for office through the past four decades, first seeking Milwaukee’s mayoral seat in 1976. He has attempted to win the GOP 3rd Congressional District primary seven times, according to the Sun-Times. In 2016 he also ran unopposed, but he was removed from the ballot by the Illinois Republican Party because of issues with his paperwork.

Leaders of the Illinois Republican party have distanced themselves from Jones. He will face the Democratic candidate for the 3rd District in the general election in November.
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