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2018 Elections Thread (2 Viewers)

:yes:

NBC News calls UT-04: Ben McAdams (D) is the apparent winner in Utah House 4. Democrat Gain.

The Democrats have a net gain of 39 seats in the House. —@NBCPolitics

 
So the Mississippi state Capitol had noose hanging from tree this morning? What's the point of that state?

#relegatemississippi

 
:yes:

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki 15m15 minutes ago

New votes tallied just now from Kern County have put Dem. TJ Cox ahead of Rep. David Valadao by 438 votes in CA-21. A win for Cox would give Dems a net gain of 40 seats in the House.

 
squistion said:
:yes:

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki 15m15 minutes ago

New votes tallied just now from Kern County have put Dem. TJ Cox ahead of Rep. David Valadao by 438 votes in CA-21. A win for Cox would give Dems a net gain of 40 seats in the House.
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BUT ITS NOT A BLUE WAVE!!...IT"S NOT A BLUE WAVE!!!..SUCK IT LIBS!!!...NO BLUE WAVE FOR YOU!!!!!!!!!!

 
[scooter] said:
This is pretty far down the list of reasons to dislike Hyde-Smith, IMO. Those types of schools exist all over the south, and in fact were created specifically to circumvent Brown v. Board Of Education. Each town would create a private school, then slash the funding for the public schools, then make the private school affordable to almost every white family.

I wouldn't blame Hyde-Smith just because her parents decided to participate in that scheme (especially when the local public school was probably an underfunded mess).
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Yep.  To this day private schools are big all over the state of MS.  When I lived there almost everyone I worked with in a college graduate, professional setting had gone to private high schools.  The city schools were in awful shape.  Even today, my niece goes to private school in south MS because it's so much better than the public schools.  There is some of that in AL, but it isn't nearly the same.  For the most part the suburbs of Birmingham and even county schools around it have decent public schools.  In MS, I think Madison Co north of Jackson has good schools and I have friends who now send their kids to the public schools there, but way more the exception than the rule.

 
James Daulton said:
Whites make up 57% or Mississippi.  What % will vote for this lady?  70%?  That's only 40% of the population, will whites vote at such a higher rate than minorities that Espy really doesn't have a chance?
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Probably closer to 80+.

Edit to add this from an article I found:

The problem for Democrats is this a pattern seen over and over again. Voters just don't shift that much in the state. In the closest Senate race in the state of the last 20 years, Musgrove earned 18% of the white vote and 92% of the black vote in the 2008 special Senate election. He lost overall by 10 points.

Put another way, Espy needs to break the mold in some way. He can, for instance, win over more white voters than the traditional Mississippi Democrat does. Even if you assume Hyde-Smith's recent comments allow Espy to capture 98% of the black vote, he'll need to win north of 22% of the white vote to emerge victorious given traditional turnout patterns.

 
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Shula-holic said:
Probably closer to 80+.

Edit to add this from an article I found:

The problem for Democrats is this a pattern seen over and over again. Voters just don't shift that much in the state. In the closest Senate race in the state of the last 20 years, Musgrove earned 18% of the white vote and 92% of the black vote in the 2008 special Senate election. He lost overall by 10 points.

Put another way, Espy needs to break the mold in some way. He can, for instance, win over more white voters than the traditional Mississippi Democrat does. Even if you assume Hyde-Smith's recent comments allow Espy to capture 98% of the black vote, he'll need to win north of 22% of the white vote to emerge victorious given traditional turnout patterns.
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Folks are kidding themselves if they think Espy will win. Anyone who has spent time in the South, especially the deep South, will tell you the same.

 
saintfool said:
Folks are kidding themselves if they think Espy will win. Anyone who has spent time in the South, especially the deep South, will tell you the same.
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I highly doubt he's winning either, but Alabama and Kansas had surprises this year. It's been a crazy last couple of years in politics. Espy winning is definitely possible. 

 
Hilts said:
I highly doubt he's winning either, but Alabama and Kansas had surprises this year. It's been a crazy last couple of years in politics. Espy winning is definitely possible. 
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Roy Moore lost by 1.5 points *after* women stepped forward about him being something of a pedophile. Cindy seems to be a racist, among other things. For her campaign, this is not a "bug" but rather a feature. Folks down south take a dimmer view of going after young girls over being a racist.  

 
:confused:

Matt Viser‏Verified account @mviser 17h17 hours ago

"How does he fit in with Mississippi? How does he fit in??”

— President Trump on Mike Espy

 
saintfool said:
Roy Moore lost by 1.5 points *after* women stepped forward about him being something of a pedophile. Cindy seems to be a racist, among other things. For her campaign, this is not a "bug" but rather a feature. Folks down south take a dimmer view of going after young girls over being a racist.  
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Yes, Roy Moore only lost because he had a scandalous past and said a lot of dumb things in the race. He he had big turnout from minority voters and had just enough white voters backing him or at least staying home. 

Hyde should have an easy path to victory but she's got a scandalous past and has been saying a lot of dumb things. Espy needs to have big turnout from minority voters and have enough white voters back him or at least stay home. 

Espy is probably still going to lose, but his only possible path to victory is now an actual possibility, even if it's a small one. 

 
saintfool said:
Folks are kidding themselves if they think Espy will win. Anyone who has spent time in the South, especially the deep South, will tell you the same.
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Judging by the people at the polls and the older people at my office (which is everyone), Espy doesn't stand a chance.   

Hope I'm wrong.

And yes, the school system here is awful.  I'm luckily in one of the few counties that has a good public option.  

 
Hilts said:
Yes, Roy Moore only lost because he had a scandalous past and said a lot of dumb things in the race. He he had big turnout from minority voters and had just enough white voters backing him or at least staying home. 

Hyde should have an easy path to victory but she's got a scandalous past and has been saying a lot of dumb things. Espy needs to have big turnout from minority voters and have enough white voters back him or at least stay home. 

Espy is probably still going to lose, but his only possible path to victory is now an actual possibility, even if it's a small one. 
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What a lot of people nationally lose on the Roy Moore situation was that he wasn't that popular with all conservatives in Alabama before the allegations surfaced.  He was popular on the hard religious right, not so much with conservatives who were just more fiscal conservatives and had any type of social view other than hard right.  Granted, in Alabama that isn't the majority of conservatives, but there was a number out there, be it 15-20% or whatever.   

I already wasn't going to vote for him even without those allegations.  Go back and look at his last election as Chief Justice.  He barely beat a relative unknown in Bob Vance in the general election.  Moore had enough hard right support to always win the primary, and that's what happened to Luther Strange, Mo Brooks, etc.  But when you mix in the Democrats in the state, and the maybe 15-20% of conservatives who didn't care for his antics, it made that race close.  If you look at the by county map, Moore always lagged typical Republican voting patterns in the two largest collegiate counties (Tuscaloosa and Lee) and also lagged Republican performance in the highest educated county in the Birmingham suburbs (Shelby).  The state is so red that he still won, even though it was narrowly. 

The allegations did cause him to lose the Senate race to Jones, but the swing was probably not more than 5-6%.  If memory serves right he beat Vance around 4 points and lost to Jones by less than 2 points. Add in better turnout in minority areas and some Republicans stayed home, that to me is what caused it.  I think most Republicans who the allegations affected likely just stayed home.  

 
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There's a decent case to be made that the Dems are better off if Hyde-Smith wins.  The difference between a 53/47 and 52/48 split is minor and the seat is up again in 2020 so it's not like the Dems can hold it as part of a potential majority.  And the more Hyde-Smiths and Steve Kings the GOP has to caucus with and account for, the more they'll continue to struggle in the suburbs that are going to decide our elections in the near future. Plus Espy comes with his own ethical issues. The fewer opportunities these corrupt bigots have to "both sides" those things, the better.

 
agree, trying to equate this election to Moore/Jones isn't really kosher.  CHS was considered the less conservative of the two Republicans in the primary.  she's gonna win.

 
Did what I could and cast my vote for Espy today. 

While her public comments sufficiently reveal that she is unfit for public office, her lack of cognitive ability is nearly as bad.  I cannot think of one senator, past or present, that is as remotely dumb as this woman. ... Bless her heart.

 
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joffer said:
agree, trying to equate this election to Moore/Jones isn't really kosher.  CHS was considered the less conservative of the two Republicans in the primary.  she's gonna win.
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Chris McDaniel is almost tin foil hat territory.

But you're totally right.  McDaniel is to the right, very much so, of Hyde-Smith.  So I'd be hard pressed to think Espy gets any of those votes.  Perhaps they stay home because McDaniel's backers are the ones who often want ideological purity tests and a RINO is no different than a Democrat, etc.  But given that Trump is firmly on the side of Hyde-Smith, I can't see that many of them deliberately sitting it out.

 
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Don't look now, but we got an UPSET ALERT.

It's very early, but Espy is FAR outperforming the cumulative DEM vote from the election on the 6th across several areas of the state.

 
Maybe not such a longshot:

NATE SILVER  9:02 PM

Weighted by the number of votes in each county so far, Espy is outperforming his Nov. 6 results by 9.5 percentage points so far … which is exactly what he’d need to finish in a tie tonight.
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
I wish I had any idea about Mississippi counties.  Does the black/Dem vote tend to lag there like it does in other states @Henry Ford?
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Not sure, but these links might help a little if you want to mash some numbers.  The last two links break down the vote counts by county for the Nov 6th election.

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/27/runoff-election-results/2131550002/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtDTlKqW0AAUuWn.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtDTlKZWsAAXoOZ.jpg

 
Nate Silver appears to be doing the lifting here.  Espy definitely outperforming so far -- by enough that it should be close.  But man... a black Democrat in a stand-alone runoff election in Mississippi?  Talk about a tall hill to climb.

 
She's been leading by 5-6 thousand all night but just increased the lead to 12k.

54%-45% with 15% in. 

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Nate Silver appears to be doing the lifting here.  Espy definitely outperforming so far -- by enough that it should be close.  But man... a black Democrat in a stand-alone runoff election in Mississippi?  Talk about a tall hill to climb.
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There's also a hangover effect from Chris McDaniel having been in this race and his core base still being upset over the Thad Cochran primary race for this same seat.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Nate Silver appears to be doing the lifting here.  Espy definitely outperforming so far -- by enough that it should be close.  But man... a black Democrat in a stand-alone runoff election in Mississippi?  Talk about a tall hill to climb.
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Would be the first time since Reconstruction. 

 
Was for for a while.  19 minutes to be exact.

NATE SILVER 9:21 PM

Espometer down to 5.7 points, which would imply that Hyde-Smith eventually wins by mid-high single digits.
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Espy was within 1% of Hyde-Smith earlier in DeSoto County.  I think that was causing some of Nate Silver's uncertainty.  She's upped it over 15% now.  She's certainly underperforming most R's in MS, especially Roger Wicker.  But some of the more rural counties she's running much closer to the normal trajectory.

 
This could be called any moment.  I don't see any path forward for Espy.  He's not getting enough out of Hinds Co and the population just isn't there in the MS Delta region to close this.

 
A great example of why blindly voting for a "D" or an "R" is a horrible way to elect our government officials.

 
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Progressives/Bernie fans aren't gonna like this, but there's a pretty good case to be made that the DCCC's strategizing and interference with primary races won several extra House races for the Dems, including multiple seats in California and one in suburban Houston.  This article details the effort. 

A longer version of the article also had this passage, which I thought was interesting:

The DCCC also discovered during its research that a lot of voters disliked Trump so much that they didn’t want to see pictures of him. Sena said people in their focus groups would dismiss mailers with images of the president’s face and of kids who had been separated from their parents being held in cages at the southern border. In some cases, the voters they wanted to motivate would literally push the mailers away or turn them over because they were so upset by the pictures. So they took Trump’s face off most literature and tried to use more uplifting images. They also took this approach in closing Spanish-language ads that targeted Hispanics in California. “Know your power,” a narrator said. “Use your voice.”
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Anyway, excuse me while I run for cover before some of our angrier progressive posters check in.

 
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