2017 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (2 Viewers)

[Chaka]

Aaron Jones was #2 or #3 SPARQ score amongst all rookie RBs.

A few quotes:
Jones analysis

(people were salivating over Dixon for 2 years)

Analyzing all 5 RBs

(James Starks? Eh...) 

Demrovsky's analysis after the draft:

That's two James Starks comparisons... 
 

Furthermore on GB going RBBC:
 

Sure, guys writing these things are looking for clicks, to make news, and it's just opinions... but it's also what they do for a living. I'm more willing to trust an "Expert" than try and think I know more than they do. I don't walk into my dentist's office and try to act like I know more than he does. It drives me bonkers when my patients do this to me. So to each their own, but there's a lot of "complete back" talk when it comes to Jones, and more "between the tackles situational RB" talk for Williams, even from Elliot Wolf who is pretty much set to take over for Thompson when he decides to hang it up... that's as much from the horses mouth as it can get   

Maybe that makes a little more sense how I came to the conclusion I did regarding GB's future at RB should Ty Montgomery fizzle or get hurt. It's because it's all anybody is saying. 

I would disagree on GB going RBBC should Montgomery go down. In the past they haven't shown to do this ever. Even when Lacy was struggling they went with Starks. He was awful so they were kind of stuck. Last year they could have went RBBC but they pretty much committed to Ty. 

Should Ty Montgomery go down, given Jones is a much closer talent and skill set to Montgomery, it would be my opinion based on the above and other analysis that I have read that Jones would step in for Montgomery and Williams' role would not change

Obviously you like the guy and I am paying attention to him because of your posting.  But if all those blurbs were significant why wasn't he drafted ahead of Cook or McCaffrey etc.?  Drafting is clearly an inexact science but 18 RBs went off the board before Jones, including Williams.  Maybe that means nothing when the dust settles but it's what we have to go on right now.

I acknowledged that McCarthy favors one back but it didn't play out that way very often last season.  Look at the game logs, they're all over the map and the one thing they indicate to me is that the Packers essentially abandoned the running game. This year should play out different in the event of an injury to Monty but last years game scripts are still a legitimate option as well.

And did you really try to compare beat writers and draft experts to dentists?  What type of degree, certifications and continuing education are those guys required to get/maintain to practice their craft?  I think you're a great poster and I pay attention but c'mon guy.

 

[Interseptopus]

Obviously you like the guy and I am paying attention to him because of your posting.  But if all those blurbs were significant why wasn't he drafted ahead of Cook or McCaffrey etc.?  Drafting is clearly an inexact science but 18 RBs went off the board before Jones, including Williams.  Maybe that means nothing when the dust settles but it's what we have to go on right now.

I acknowledged that McCarthy favors one back but it didn't play out that way very often last season.  Look at the game logs, they're all over the map and the one thing they indicate to me is that the Packers essentially abandoned the running game. This year should play out different in the event of an injury to Monty but last years game scripts are still a legitimate option as well.

And did you really try to compare beat writers and draft experts to dentists?  What type of degree, certifications and continuing education are those guys required to get/maintain to practice their craft?  I think you're a great poster and I pay attention but c'mon guy.

I have no idea why teams draft who they do when they do. I think a lot has to do with the quality of a program they come from and obviously where people rate the talent. I'll say this and then leave the issue alone, this was a very deep rb class where many scouts felt teams could get a starting rb round 3-4, so I think talk about round this last draft isn't the same as previous drafts. Marlon Mack was drafted late but I think he has huge potential as a starter eventually. 

I wasn't trying to put a medical professional on the same level as a writer... you're right, there's a big difference, but I was just making a point that it's what they do for a living, sonic hope they're good at it and better researched than me. not true in all cases thesendays unfortunately. reporting has become lazy and all it is now is how many followers one has and who gets the tweet out first... so that goes to your point where some may be hyping a player just to "be right"

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Don't waste your time with Jamaal Williams. If Ty goes down, Aaron Jones will emerge as the best back in GB. But Ty has looked pretty good week 1, so I am not sure he loses the job on performance; it will take an injury at this point

Why was jones inactive in game 1 then?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Why was jones inactive in game 1 then?

Tatum Bell-type motivation.

 

[Bronco Billy]

groin pains picked up on Clement early on.  If you've got a fluid spot at the end of your bench, now might be the time.  The kid showed well in all phases of the game in TC and PS, and if he's gotten over being so much in love with himself he could break through sooner rather than later.

 

[KingPrawn]

Why was jones inactive in game 1 then?

Special teams. Blurb in today's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel said that is the difference. Sounds like he wasn't stickin' his nose in the special teams playbook as much as the coaches wanted him to. Message sent.

 

[zamboni]

It is a good question.  I think his upside is Leroy Hoard at 31.  Mostly because there is a dearth of RB talent behind him so the opportunities should be there...at least until they sign Ryan Matthews.

I've been thinking about picking Tolbert up preemptively - that's a running game to own.

As mentioned though, I can't imagine that Tolbert would be the guy to carry the mail for a prolonged stretch if McCoy goes down. I don't think they would bring in Matthews at this point, but likely someone else out there.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Coordinator change cashes out the last bit of infinitesimal stock in Hill fwiw.  Cuteness is over I think and it is gonna be heavy Mixon sooner than later.

-QG

 

[kittenmittens]

Aaron Jones is the most complete back...?  yet he is a healthy scratch because he cannot pass block and is considered very raw... He might have the most upside, but I don't think complete back is a good term to describe him. He won't even suit up unless Mccarthy trusts him to protect Rodgers. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Why was jones inactive in game 1 then?

I didn't say he was going to be a starter week 2. I said long term he is the back to own, and if Ty Montgomery goes down he is likely to fill in for Ty, and Williams role would remain the same 

Was Ty hurt week 1?

He wasn't active week 1 because he doesn't play special teams, he didn't fit their game plan for Sea, and Ty is healthy. Pretty simple 

I imagine Williams will get first crack at more work when Ty goes down but he doesn't fit what GB does on offense... he's a plodder not an electric back with many different skills. 

I've debated this item enough. Whenever anyone makes a claim on who they think is a good rb to own the odds are highly stacked against them being right. so I can admit to that and move on... it's useless debating because neither of us know for sure. all I know is Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams. While deep bench and dynasty guys are stashing Williams thinking he's the back if Ty goes down, the shark move is to stash Jones. of it doesn't work out, he likely didn't cost you anything. if he does, you can thank me then. It's not like you need to spend a 1st round rookie pick on him. and if you're in a short bench league, just put him on your watch list. I guess I don't understand the criticism for suggesting that there is an alternative back in GB to own that looks better than the one listed #2 on the depth chart... thought that's what these forums were for..  information to be 2 steps ahead of everyone else... especially this thread...

 

[Interseptopus]

Aaron Jones is the most complete back...?  yet he is a healthy scratch because he cannot pass block and is considered very raw... He might have the most upside, but I don't think complete back is a good term to describe him. He won't even suit up unless Mccarthy trusts him to protect Rodgers. 

he cannot pass block and is very raw? where did you see this?

he was scratched because of special teams... I can pull up a link of you like...

week 1 inactive

"Rookie running back Devante Mays got the nod over fellow rookie Aaron Jones as the No. 3 back behind Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams. Mays has been a better special teams player."

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I didn't say he was going to be a starter week 2. I said long term he is the back to own, and if Ty Montgomery goes down he is likely to fill in for Ty, and Williams role would remain the same 

Was Ty hurt week 1?

He wasn't active week 1 because he doesn't play special teams, he didn't fit their game plan for Sea, and Ty is healthy. Pretty simple 

I imagine Williams will get first crack at more work when Ty goes down but he doesn't fit what GB does on offense... he's a plodder not an electric back with many different skills. 

I've debated this item enough. Whenever anyone makes a claim on who they think is a good rb to own the odds are highly stacked against them being right. so I can admit to that and move on... it's useless debating because neither of us know for sure. all I know is Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams. While deep bench and dynasty guys are stashing Williams thinking he's the back if Ty goes down, the shark move is to stash Jones. of it doesn't work out, he likely didn't cost you anything. if he does, you can thank me then. It's not like you need to spend a 1st round rookie pick on him. and if you're in a short bench league, just put him on your watch list. I guess I don't understand the criticism for suggesting that there is an alternative back in GB to own that looks better than the one listed #2 on the depth chart... thought that's what these forums were for..  information to be 2 steps ahead of everyone else... especially this thread...

So if Ty goes down, you see Jones going from inactive to getting 90% of snaps and touches immediately?

 

[Interseptopus]

So if Ty goes down, you see Jones going from inactive to getting 90% of snaps and touches immediately?

smh... I give up. If you think their week 1 game script will be exactly the same by week 8 9 or 10 then there's no use continuing with you. forest through the trees Alex...

good luck this week 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I didn't say he was going to be a starter week 2. I said long term he is the back to own, and if Ty Montgomery goes down he is likely to fill in for Ty, and Williams role would remain the same 

Was Ty hurt week 1?

He wasn't active week 1 because he doesn't play special teams, he didn't fit their game plan for Sea, and Ty is healthy. Pretty simple 

I imagine Williams will get first crack at more work when Ty goes down but he doesn't fit what GB does on offense... he's a plodder not an electric back with many different skills. 

I've debated this item enough. Whenever anyone makes a claim on who they think is a good rb to own the odds are highly stacked against them being right. so I can admit to that and move on... it's useless debating because neither of us know for sure. all I know is Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams. While deep bench and dynasty guys are stashing Williams thinking he's the back if Ty goes down, the shark move is to stash Jones. of it doesn't work out, he likely didn't cost you anything. if he does, you can thank me then. It's not like you need to spend a 1st round rookie pick on him. and if you're in a short bench league, just put him on your watch list. I guess I don't understand the criticism for suggesting that there is an alternative back in GB to own that looks better than the one listed #2 on the depth chart... thought that's what these forums were for..  information to be 2 steps ahead of everyone else... especially this thread...

honestly wasn't trying to be snarky, was a genuine question in terms of trying to understand the perceived opportunity.  I am holding Williams for now in a league with shorter benches, so I'd rather have the guy with seemingly more direct access to touches.  I guess I'm trying to watch if/when Jones is inactive further in order to track it better.

 

[kittenmittens]

he cannot pass block and is very raw? where did you see this?

he was scratched because of special teams... I can pull up a link of you like...

week 1 inactive

"Rookie running back Devante Mays got the nod over fellow rookie Aaron Jones as the No. 3 back behind Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams. Mays has been a better special teams player."

I wasn't trying to be snarky and pile on either, for the record - I appreciated your thoughts and links.  Jones lost out on the No. 3 back to Mays, but he also lost out (to Williams) on being the number 2 back.  I saw a lot of stuff earlier in camp that suggested Jones was a good runner and looked like a good fit for the 3rd down role, but he was raw, and then there was some quotes from Rodgers I believe talking about how the RB depth chart would be decided by pass protection IIRC.  

I guess my concern with Jones is that they liked him for a 3rd down role, but don't trust him to pass block right now - which is going to make it hard for him to get on the field.  McCarthy also loves using a big bruiser between the tackles back to run out the clock when they get the lead - especially in the cold - this works better in McCarthy's head than in reality, however.   Jones is the most similar to Montgomery, but the only reason Montgomery ever got a crack as a starting RB is because of injuries (he was a WR until the whole backfield was hurt), not because the Packers like that type of back.  

 

[Alex P Keaton]

smh... I give up. If you think their week 1 game script will be exactly the same by week 8 9 or 10 then there's no use continuing with you. forest through the trees Alex...

good luck this week 

???  Wow.  Overreact much?  Not going to bother having a conversation if this is how you act.

 

[Interseptopus]

???  Wow.  Overreact much?  Not going to bother having a conversation if this is how you act.

I keep repeating myself in this thread, Jones thread, GBP thread, Tys thread... I'm kind of tired of it and I think most others are too. there's nothing left for me to say. I've made my case for why I think he's a good back, chances are I'm wrong but I'm ok with that. some people buy in, some don't. no sense in making the same points over and over to those who are skeptical or hitching their hopes to one of the other 3 promising backs in this offense 

 

[Interseptopus]

honestly wasn't trying to be snarky, was a genuine question in terms of trying to understand the perceived opportunity.  I am holding Williams for now in a league with shorter benches, so I'd rather have the guy with seemingly more direct access to touches.  I guess I'm trying to watch if/when Jones is inactive further in order to track it better.

I wasn't trying to be snarky and pile on either, for the record - I appreciated your thoughts and links.  Jones lost out on the No. 3 back to Mays, but he also lost out (to Williams) on being the number 2 back.  I saw a lot of stuff earlier in camp that suggested Jones was a good runner and looked like a good fit for the 3rd down role, but he was raw, and then there was some quotes from Rodgers I believe talking about how the RB depth chart would be decided by pass protection IIRC.  

I guess my concern with Jones is that they liked him for a 3rd down role, but don't trust him to pass block right now - which is going to make it hard for him to get on the field.  McCarthy also loves using a big bruiser between the tackles back to run out the clock when they get the lead - especially in the cold - this works better in McCarthy's head than in reality, however.   Jones is the most similar to Montgomery, but the only reason Montgomery ever got a crack as a starting RB is because of injuries (he was a WR until the whole backfield was hurt), not because the Packers like that type of back.  

Mays is a legitimate threat, but I'm not sure he's passed Jones. I like Mays second. Williams last. Mays looked really really good in preseason. 

I think seeing him active is the first step. then seeing him with 1st stringers vs 1st stringers will be the biggest test of course. once everything shapes out we will have a bigger picture. does GB activate 5 RBs every week? idk. so one may be off man out. so far that was Jones.

FWIW he's active today according to fftoday. all 5 are

as far as Montgomery falling into the role, I had that thought too, but someone pointed out to me a while ago how TT said after he drafted him that he liked him as a potential switch to RB. he's certainly not good enough to be a wr1 or 2 by what he's shown. the offense with Ty involved looks really good, it's fun to watch, and it's successful 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Mays is a legitimate threat, but I'm not sure he's passed Jones. I like Mays second. Williams last. Mays looked really really good in preseason. 

I think seeing him active is the first step. then seeing him with 1st stringers vs 1st stringers will be the biggest test of course. once everything shapes out we will have a bigger picture. does GB activate 5 RBs every week? idk. so one may be off man out. so far that was Jones.

FWIW he's active today according to fftoday. all 5 are

as far as Montgomery falling into the role, I had that thought too, but someone pointed out to me a while ago how TT said after he drafted him that he liked him as a potential switch to RB. he's certainly not good enough to be a wr1 or 2 by what he's shown. the offense with Ty involved looks really good, it's fun to watch, and it's successful 

do you have a link for them all being active?  

 

[[scooter]]

???  Wow.  Overreact much?  Not going to bother having a conversation if this is how you act.

You new here?

 

[Interseptopus]

do you have a link for them all being active?  

Whoops! Wrong game!
They haven't been declared yet:

week 2 inactives

 

[Interseptopus]

You new here?

ha ha ha. Not sure what this adds to the thread or how this abides by the new forum rules

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Whoops! Wrong game!
They haven't been declared yet:

week 2 inactives

Thanks.  I figured they could not be official yet but maybe there was reporting about it.  Thinking about grabbing Smallwood again given the Blount news and dropping jamaal williams.

 

[GoBirds]

Thanks.  I figured they could not be official yet but maybe there was reporting about it.  Thinking about grabbing Smallwood again given the Blount news and dropping jamaal williams.

Ugh what was the Blount news I missed. Started him of course. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

ha ha ha. Not sure what this adds to the thread or how this abides by the new forum rules

Scroll up to your reply to me if you want an example of what not to do.

I asked you an honest question about your comment.  Ty just got like 90% of snaps and touches.  You implied that Jones would take that role - Ty's role - your words not mine.

I'm not debating who would be the starter; there is good logic on both sides.  I'm asking you to clarify the implication that Jones would see such an extreme workload.

Your reaction to my simple question was out of line.  Period.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Ugh what was the Blount news I missed. Started him of course. 

A) he's still fat

B) Eagles might get other RBs like Clement more involved this week 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Ugh what was the Blount news I missed. Started him of course. 

I maybe shouldnt have said "news" but supposedly he was going to have a reduced role and clement had been working some with the 1s. This far, still looks clear as mud.

 

[Interseptopus]

Scroll up to your reply to me if you want an example of what not to do.

I asked you an honest question about your comment.  Ty just got like 90% of snaps and touches.  You implied that Jones would take that role - Ty's role - your words not mine.

I'm not debating who would be the starter; there is good logic on both sides.  I'm asking you to clarify the implication that Jones would see such an extreme workload.

Your reaction to my simple question was out of line.  Period.

you can read my opinion in several other threads but since u don't want to search I will say what I've said for the last forever. if Ty went down Jones would fill in the ty Montgomery role and Williams would be a between the tackle guy. Williams got one carry last week but I highly doubt that s the gameplay for 16 games. GB has never gone rbbc as their go to game plan so yes if Ty goes down I expect one back to get the majority of the carries 

 

[kittenmittens]

Jalen Richard makes plays. 

 

[tigerz]

Any thoughts on the backup RB to own after the first 2 weeks?

These guys come to mind as potential WW adds. 

Will any of these guys flourish with an injury to the guy in front of him? Anyone care to rank / share their thoughts?

1. Breida - Hyde is tearing it up. Will Breida get a large amount of carries if Hyde goes down and would he be able to produce with them? I feel like this guy might be the best bet 

2. Darren McFadden / Morris - I am not sure who is the one to own or if either is worth stashing. I'm still thinking McFadden has a slight edge but hard to say with the healthy scratches.

3. James Conner - Is this guy really any good? I barely hear anything about him so I wonder if he'll be able to put up good numbers with a Bell injury. 

4. Rex Burkhead - Will he takeover for Gillisee's duties completely? It seems he would be a hot waiver wire pickup and be instant RB2 value. Unless White would be the one to own.

5. Jalen Richard - Situation is good, Oakland seems to be the team to own. However, last year he split when Latavius went down. He's been hot recently though, is he worth stashing?

6. Mack - He seemed good in week 1 but Gore was better in week 2. If Gore goes down, I'm not sure if he'll get carries and produce given the sad state of this offense.

7. Jamaal Williams - Ty Montgomery is just doing awesome. Would be nice if Jamaal could just be plugged in for RB2 numbers but I'm not sure if this guy is any good and if he would get the carries. 

8. Charcandrick West - Is this guy going to have good value if Hunt goes down? Hunt and KC offense seem to be on fire. Maybe this guy should be higher up.

 

[Weebs210]

We need Alex Collins added. He looked more explosive on his six carries than West or Allen have in their whole career.

 

[Crystalsteam99]

We need Alex Collins added. He looked more explosive on his six carries than West or Allen have in their whole career.

It's pretty easy to come in with FRESH legs and run on a tired Defense at the end of a game.Most likely Cleveland's D basically packed it in,in a blowout,going through the motions wanting the game to just end.

 

[Weebs210]

It's pretty easy to come in with FRESH legs and run on a tired Defense at the end of a game.Most likely Cleveland's D basically packed it in,in a blowout,going through the motions wanting the game to just end.

Defenses pack it in during the last few minutes of the third quarter down 11? This is news to me. Protip: not all of his touches came at the end of the game.

 

[davearm]

It looked to me in those clips that Cleveland was getting a lot of penetration, and Collins had to run through a lot of trash in the backfield on most of those runs.  Unless I'm mistaken, the Browns don't have some fearsome front 7 that's really tough to run against.  Makes me concerned for what will happen when Baltimore faces a defense that actually is strong against the run.

I'd also be concerned about how Collins is used in unfavorable game scripts.  It's one thing to get a bunch of run with West injured and a double digit lead in the second half.  It's another to get meaningful work when the Ravens are trailing in the second half.  I think someone else above said Collins isn't much of a receiver.  He could become invisible.

Best case, he completely usurps the West role, the Ravens defense keeps games close such that they don't have to abandon the run, and Collins balls out.  There's definitely high RB2 potential if all of those things come together.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

you can read my opinion in several other threads but since u don't want to search I will say what I've said for the last forever. if Ty went down Jones would fill in the ty Montgomery role and Williams would be a between the tackle guy. Williams got one carry last week but I highly doubt that s the gameplay for 16 games. GB has never gone rbbc as their go to game plan so yes if Ty goes down I expect one back to get the majority of the carries 

good call

 

[Hartliner]

Yep, Aaron passed the eyeball test and both other backs now have injuries. Gonna be watching injury reports, but may go crazy on him with a large FAAB bid. So far J.W. Has a knee sprain that could linger couple of weeks and also heard TY's ribs arent as bad as first thought and he could play week 5. However I think it still opens the door. This seems like a good lotto ticket that is about to be ready to hit.

 

[Weebs210]

Yep, Aaron passed the eyeball test and both other backs now have injuries. Gonna be watching injury reports, but may go crazy on him with a large FAAB bid. So far J.W. Has a knee sprain that could linger couple of weeks and also heard TY's ribs arent as bad as first thought and he could play week 5. However I think it still opens the door. This seems like a good lotto ticket that is about to be ready to hit.

I wouldn't go crazy on him with faab. Williams is the much better pass blocker and will at least get 50% of the snaps if tymo can't go(Williams may miss one week).

 

[davearm]

I agree. While Montgomery is out the packers will probably throw it 50 times and hand it off 10. Jones is looking like a borderline RB2/3 in the short term, then back to ww fodder.

 

[daylight]

Post Week 3 (Sat Evening Sep 30) bump with updates in red.  Moved some guys to the Too Late list as they *should* be rostered in all formats by now (or are on IR, have simply failed, etc.).  ALSO: updated the O-Line rankings (bottom of this post).

The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:

To paraphrase  @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is the list, NOT ranked:

• TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he is rostered in most leagues but if he isn't...
  
• ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
  
• PIT James Conner - Does anyone have a link or links to opinions on this guy? PIT produces such good RB production that simply by virtue of being the PIT RB (if there is a Bell injury) that I am leaving him in the King Maker list but to be honest I know nothing about him
  
• GB Jamaal Williams - Knee injury sustained Thur Sep 28th - per  @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles Aaron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
  
• GB Aaron Jones - Took over when Ty Mont and J Wms left the game with injuries - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role - per @Dr. Dan : Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams and this from @Hartliner : Aaron passed the eyeball test and both other backs now have injuries. Gonna be watching injury reports, but may go crazy on him with a large FAAB bid. So far J.W. Has a knee sprain that could linger couple of weeks and also heard TY's ribs arent as bad as first thought and he could play week 5. However I think it still opens the door. This seems like a good lotto ticket that is about to be ready to hit.
  
• GB Devante Mays - With both Ty Mont and J Williams getting hurt this past Thur Sep 29th, GB is down to A Jones and D Mays so I added Mays to cover all the bases in GB's high producing offense - per @Dr. Dan : Williams looked awful in preseason too. Jones and Mays looked incredible (by comparison) AND Mays is a legitimate threat, but I'm not sure he's passed Jones. I like Mays second. Williams last. Mays looked really really good in preseason. 
  
• GB's BACK FIELD IN GENERAL - per @Chaka :  ...Jones had 11 more catches in college (with a slightly lower Y/C), point being it isn't like BYU didn't trust Williams in the passing game.  We really don't know much about them as players from the blurbs coming out of OTAs and TC, written by people trying to catch eyeballs more than provide great analysis.  My opinion is that, in the event of a Montgomery injury it's gonna be a full blown committee between Williams, Jones and Rip.  However the good thing about McCarthy is that, unlike a lot of coaches, he may actually settle on one back to be the lead but I doubt it happens until he rotates them for a couple weeks.  IMO picking the guy behind Monty feels like a dart throw more than anything. And please see @Dr. Dan 's excellent synopsis on the GB backfield in this thread - page 3 posted Sep 15
  
• NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
  
• NE Rex Burkhead - Currently has an injury and may be out tomorrow Oct 1 - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists. 
  
• NE James White - because any back on NE could be a Season Changer if he becomes "the last man standing"
  
• NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
  
• SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense + Hyde has been doing well
  
• BUF M Tolbert - per @Chaka : McCoy nursing groin injury.  Still expected to play but definitely worth monitoring.
  

Honorable Mention (not quite enough upside to be a King Maker d/t lack of talent, workload, surrounding talent, etc.), NOT ranked:

• DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
  
• PIT Terrell Watson? (instead of James Conner)?
  
• OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey :  it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes - per @Stompin' Tom Connors : I don't think there is a lottery ticket behind Lynch in Oakland. While I think Richard has more spark and is a little more dynamic so far, Washington is a decent talent and if Lynch goes down, pretty sure it would be a pure split backfield with these two, a 50/50 timeshare with FB Olawale sprinkled in on short yardage/stripe carries.
  
• IND M Mack - has missed practices this past week (the week leading up to week 4)
  
• IND Matt Jones
  
• PHI W Smallwood - Posted 12 attempts for 71 yards in week 3 after Sproles went down
  
• PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes - @Chaka : http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/09/15/donnell-pumphrey-tears-hamstring-in-practice-out-indefinitely/
  
• PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
  
• TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
  
• KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt. - UPDATE SEP 9 per @Statorama - Watch for West to get dropped in a lot of leagues (with Hunt's performance), worth stashing given how good the o-line looked Thursday.
  
• WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston  
  
• SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
  
• HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog  
  
• DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per  @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• DEN D Booker - per @One : I went back, watched all his carries/catches from 2016 and came away more impressed than I expected to.  Booker can run with power and his hands are great.  My rational is ...Year 2,  looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury.  Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16),  will help the vision issues he had last season.  Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles.  Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS.  He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
  
• DAL A Morris
  
• CIN J Hill - per @QuizGuy66 : only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues...
  
• NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
  
• LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley 
  
• CLE Duke Johnson - suggested by @Hankmoody
  
• DET Dwayne Washington - suggested by @Deaddawg
  
• JAX Chris Ivory - suggested by @Mr. Irrelevant and @Dr. Dan
  
• BAL Collins - suggested by @Weebs210 : looked more explosive on his six carries than West or Allen have in their whole career - and this from @davearm :  It looked to me in those clips that Cleveland was getting a lot of penetration, and Collins had to run through a lot of trash in the backfield on most of those runs.  Unless I'm mistaken, the Browns don't have some fearsome front 7 that's really tough to run against.  Makes me concerned for what will happen when Baltimore faces a defense that actually is strong against the run.  I'd also be concerned about how Collins is used in unfavorable game scripts.  It's one thing to get a bunch of run with West injured and a double digit lead in the second half.  It's another to get meaningful work when the Ravens are trailing in the second half.  I think someone else above said Collins isn't much of a receiver.  He could become invisible.  Best case, he completely usurps the West role, the Ravens defense keeps games close such that they don't have to abandon the run, and Collins balls out.  There's definitely high RB2 potential if all of those things come together.
   
  

Too Late or No Longer Applicable (guys who have already broken out, are injured, etc.):

• SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per  @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
  
• FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
  
• NE M Gillislee
  
• KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
  
• CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
  
• ARI - David Johnson's Backup:  Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington or Chris Johnson ? In Bloom's On The Couch (Tue Sep 12) he said that the ARI OL looks "tired" so perhaps the answer is "no one" - we have seen 2 weeks of ARI sans David Johnson and no-one has stepped up to be a King Maker
  
• TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season? - He has started TBB's 1st two games but is not looking like a King Maker
  

For Reference, here is some info on the Best Running Offensive Lines for 2017:

From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK, BUF
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A"   in run blocking:  : CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
  

From Matt Bitonti's pre-Week-4 OL rankings:

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A" in run blocking:  CLE, WAS, TEN
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A-" in run blocking:  CHI
  

Note, the WR/TE version of this thread is here:  2017 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 

[[icon]]

Donta Foreman HOU will be a startable RB2 by week 10 if not before 

 

[IHEARTFF]

Clement and Smallwood should both have value for Eagles. Does Clement have a thread yet?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Jerick McKinnon or Lat Murray, not sure who will get the bulk.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Donta Foreman HOU will be a startable RB2 by week 10 if not before 

Doubt it.  Miller dominated the snaps today again.

 

[Ilov80s]

Donta Foreman HOU will be a startable RB2 by week 10 if not before 

As much as I want this, he needs a Miller injury 

 

[One]

On the TNF telecast.  

“Vance thought Devontae Booker was playing so well (before he got hurt), he thought Devontae was gonna be the starter this season.”

its coming...

 

[Ilov80s]

Darkwa obviously

 

[zamboni]

On the TNF telecast.  

“Vance thought Devontae Booker was playing so well (before he got hurt), he thought Devontae was gonna be the starter this season.”

its coming...

I’d be interested in hearing more about this. Not like Anderson is setting the world on fire, and Charles is nearing the end.

 

[rschroeder1]

On the TNF telecast.  

“Vance thought Devontae Booker was playing so well (before he got hurt), he thought Devontae was gonna be the starter this season.”

its coming...

Didn't watch the game (had to watch Joe Maddon act like a crazy person). Booker's 4 rec for 78 caught my eye though. Any observations from those who watched?

 

[One]

Didn't watch the game (had to watch Joe Maddon act like a crazy person). Booker's 4 rec for 78 caught my eye though. Any observations from those who watched?

I wouldn’t go too much by the stats.  Most of them were garbage time receptions. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

On the TNF telecast.  

“Vance thought Devontae Booker was playing so well (before he got hurt), he thought Devontae was gonna be the starter this season.”

its coming...

Sergio Dipp?