What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***NFC Championship - Detroit Lions 14-5 at San Francisco 49'ers 13-5*** (-7.5, 52) 6:30 (2 Viewers)

Haven't followed this thread at all, and I'm sure it was discussed, but Campbell going for it up 24-10 rather than kicking was as idiotic as it gets.
Judging it by the outcome is idiotic. It was the right call. WR has to make that catch.
No, dumb, you go up three scores and don't risk that enormous momentum swing.
Absolute worst call I've seen in some time
 
Haven't followed this thread at all, and I'm sure it was discussed, but Campbell going for it up 24-10 rather than kicking was as idiotic as it gets.
Judging it by the outcome is idiotic. It was the right call. WR has to make that catch.
No, dumb, you go up three scores and don't risk that enormous momentum swing.
Absolute worst call I've seen in some time
They were trying to go up by three scores. They just failed to execute.
 
Haven't followed this thread at all, and I'm sure it was discussed, but Campbell going for it up 24-10 rather than kicking was as idiotic as it gets.
Judging it by the outcome is idiotic. It was the right call. WR has to make that catch.
No, dumb, you go up three scores and don't risk that enormous momentum swing.
Absolute worst call I've seen in some time
A lot of strange play calling. Even if they pick up the first down, statistically there is still a better change of them not scoring a TD vs scoring a TD, when you are first and 10 at the 25 yard line.

I think anywhere between the 20 and 33 yard line is probably the worse place to go for it on 4th down. The risk is turning over the ball on downs, and the reward is often a field goal from 5 yards closer.
 
Campbell is gonna murder someone in the presser

Why? It's his ****ing fault they lost. Own it and start prepping for next year. That loss is 100% on Campbell. Pride before the fall.
Well. Not 100%. He gave his players a chance to make big plays on 4th downs. They didn't. Think Goff blames his coach for trusting him in those moments? It's why his players love him. Having said all that, I hope when he watches the game film he realizes he should have made a few different choices.

If you think passing up points and kicking off after taking points wouldn't have made a difference in this game then we just intake the game of professional football differently and that's okay.
 
Campbell is gonna murder someone in the presser

Why? It's his ****ing fault they lost. Own it and start prepping for next year. That loss is 100% on Campbell. Pride before the fall.
Well. Not 100%. He gave his players a chance to make big plays on 4th downs. They didn't. Think Goff blames his coach for trusting him in those moments? It's why his players love him. Having said all that, I hope when he watches the game film he realizes he should have made a few different choices.

If you think passing up points and kicking off after taking points wouldn't have made a difference in this game then we just intake the game of professional football differently and that's okay.
That's not what I'm saying at all. He obviously made some wrong decisions. No question. It was hard to watch.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

Not all NFL defenses are created equal. I wonder what that 4th down conversation rate looks like playing in a tougher division than the cookie-dough soft NFC North?

4th and 2 at the 49ers 28 while leading 24-10 and going for it vs kicking a 45 yard FG seems foolish to me. Needless. Arrogant even. If that's the Dan Campbell way and you love it, great. I prefer a coach who understands the importance of taking points but that's just my personal preference.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.
 
Campbell is gonna murder someone in the presser

Why? It's his ****ing fault they lost. Own it and start prepping for next year. That loss is 100% on Campbell. Pride before the fall.
Well. Not 100%. He gave his players a chance to make big plays on 4th downs. They didn't. Think Goff blames his coach for trusting him in those moments? It's why his players love him. Having said all that, I hope when he watches the game film he realizes he should have made a few different choices.

If you think passing up points and kicking off after taking points wouldn't have made a difference in this game then we just intake the game of professional football differently and that's okay.
That's not what I'm saying at all. He obviously made some wrong decisions. No question. It was hard to watch.
I just don't think its nearly as egregious as other people make it sound. its impossible to know how kicking fgs in that situation would've turned out but if for instance they kicked the 2 fgs in the 2nd half and everything else turned out the same prior to that final detroit td drive, then they'd still be down 4 at that point. now you could argue that they then would've driven down for the td and taken the lead which is certainly possible. but my take is that final td was just the 49ers playing it safe to burn some clock. after all, that's the same detroit offense that couldn't get past the niners 28 yard line all half up until that point. so its conceivable that the final td from detroit never happens and they still lose by 4. i'd certainly rather be in that position at the end rather than praying for an onside kick to deliver, but either way they still lose.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.

Situational football. First time was a good call, player dropped the pass.

Second time up by 14, and good chance to go up by 17 and really put SF under the gun down by 3 scores then FG was the right call.
 
I don't agree they should have went for it on the first drop pass in the second half.... Fine you played aggressive all year ok. I don't agree but it's understandable.

You will not change my mind on the second time in that situation. That was absolute kick every time to me
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.

Situational football. First time was a good call, player dropped the pass.

Second time up by 14, and good chance to go up by 17 and really put SF under the gun down by 3 scores then FG was the right call.
Those are the same play
 
Watching Rex Ryan on Get Up lose his mind about this game is friggin hilarious!!

He called it "the most devastating loss of all time"

Did he lose some bets or something? :lmao:
 
Last edited:
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.

Situational football. First time was a good call, player dropped the pass.

Second time up by 14, and good chance to go up by 17 and really put SF under the gun down by 3 scores then FG was the right call.
Those are the same play

Nope. First 4th down was a couple plays after the Flea Flicker to Jamo. Play wasn’t perfect, Jared threw it a little too far in front of Josh but if he delivers it on the numbers Bosa had his hand up, probably gets tipped.

Second 4th down Jared got flushed and he’s not great off schedule.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.

Situational football. First time was a good call, player dropped the pass.

Second time up by 14, and good chance to go up by 17 and really put SF under the gun down by 3 scores then FG was the right call.

First time they were up by 14. Second 4th down they were down 3.
 
The probability of winning was higher going for it in both instances. That means attempting field goals was gambling.

Analytics says both were medium go for it. Wasn’t a strong go for it.

But on the season they were 18/21 on 4th & 3 or less. 86% success rate. They got here in part bc that is their brand of football.

I understand the criticism but I hope MCDC’s continues to keep trusting his players and choosing aggression. It has served them well.
 
Too much emphasis on the coach and 4th down plays.

The real killer that completely turned the tide was Gibbs' fumble.

Turnovers are the only way big leads get blown, and that's always on the players.
Actually if they kicked the FG on the first 4th down, even with the Gibbs fumble and TD, they be up still. So that fumble was bad, I wouldn't mark it the cause of their loss.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.

Situational football. First time was a good call, player dropped the pass.

Second time up by 14, and good chance to go up by 17 and really put SF under the gun down by 3 scores then FG was the right call.
Those are the same play

Nope. First 4th down was a couple plays after the Flea Flicker to Jamo. Play wasn’t perfect, Jared threw it a little too far in front of Josh but if he delivers it on the numbers Bosa had his hand up, probably gets tipped.

Second 4th down Jared got flushed and he’s not great off schedule.

:confused: The first 4th down was the one when they were up by 14. The ball hit the WR in the hands and he dropped it.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

People are excessively risk-averse and results-oriented, even if they've convinced themselves they're not. It was a great call to go for it the first time, it's not Campbell's fault the WR dropped the pass. He makes that catch and everyone is predictably talking about how great it is that Campbell is so aggressive. It's dumb but people need it explained to them every time.

Situational football. First time was a good call, player dropped the pass.

Second time up by 14, and good chance to go up by 17 and really put SF under the gun down by 3 scores then FG was the right call.
Those are the same play

Nope. First 4th down was a couple plays after the Flea Flicker to Jamo. Play wasn’t perfect, Jared threw it a little too far in front of Josh but if he delivers it on the numbers Bosa had his hand up, probably gets tipped.

Second 4th down Jared got flushed and he’s not great off schedule.

:confused: The first 4th down was the one when they were up by 14. The ball hit the WR in the hands and he dropped it.

Yep

I understand Campbell’s thinking there but if they go back up by 3 scores after a 46 yard FGA…

Tough outcome.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

Against the Bears, Vikings, Chargers, Vegas, Saints and Broncos. Some of the powerhouse defenses they faced for the tough 4th down calls.

Analytics are great, but you have to know how to use them and what their limitations are.

First one - Throwing to your 3WR in that spot is also questionable.
Second one - no idea what the play is there
The run at the end - was basic stuff. Total blunder.

They didn’t learn from the Cowboys debacle either:

They couldn’t convert 3 times against Dallas when trying to get the second seed on an ill thought out - double trick tackle eligible play.

Trying to explain this to Lion fans is a waste of time, breath and key strokes. Because, analytics and Campbell has big balls.

Got it, enjoy your big balls on the couch in two weeks. I feel so bad for the players. They deserved better/smarted leadership in those key moments.
 
Last edited:
The probability of winning was higher going for it in both instances. That means attempting field goals was gambling.

Analytics says both were medium go for it. Wasn’t a strong go for it.

But on the season they were 18/21 on 4th & 3 or less. 86% success rate. They got here in part bc that is their brand of football.

I understand the criticism but I hope MCDC’s continues to keep trusting his players and choosing aggression. It has served them well.
How many of those 18 times that they were successful did they go on to score a TD, how many times did they settle for a FG, and how many times did they come away with nothing?

I think it's really about risk reward. Going for it from the 2 yard line you are probably risking 3 points to score 7 points. That is fair (depending on game time circumstances).

Going for it at the 28 yard line you are risking an attempt at 3 points to gain a first and 10 at the 25 yard line.
 
Too much emphasis on the coach and 4th down plays.

The real killer that completely turned the tide was Gibbs' fumble.

Turnovers are the only way big leads get blown, and that's always on the players.
Nah, it’s a tie between both of the monster drops that were perfectly on target.

Convert those 4th downs and they’re both daggers. Niners lose. No question.

The fumble was part of that huge momentum shift that followed, but at that point it almost felt like inertia - a sense of being inevitable.
 
The probability of winning was higher going for it in both instances. That means attempting field goals was gambling.

Analytics says both were medium go for it. Wasn’t a strong go for it.

But on the season they were 18/21 on 4th & 3 or less. 86% success rate. They got here in part bc that is their brand of football.

I understand the criticism but I hope MCDC’s continues to keep trusting his players and choosing aggression. It has served them well.
MHO: being aggressive is what got your team there. Stay the course.

Dallas was dominant at home playing the same style of defense all year. GB came to down and DAL inexplicably changed their entire defensive scheme and got boatraced.

So I have no issue with Campbell going for it on either of those plays. And they called a perfect play & Golf threw a perfect pass. Hard to fault Campbell because a WR didn’t execute & catch the bunny.

Those were “go for the throat” plays - another TD and the game is over in the 3rd quarter.

It didn't work out, but the Niners scoring on 5 straight possessions showed everyone why the Lions felt they needed to be as aggresssive as possible.

Tough loss @BobbyLayne - I have the utmost confidence your team will be back in the NFCC next year.

Campbell is who he is and ya gotta love him for it.

Zero problem with them going for it. It was the right call both times.
 
The probability of winning was higher going for it in both instances. That means attempting field goals was gambling.

Analytics says both were medium go for it. Wasn’t a strong go for it.

But on the season they were 18/21 on 4th & 3 or less. 86% success rate. They got here in part bc that is their brand of football.

I understand the criticism but I hope MCDC’s continues to keep trusting his players and choosing aggression. It has served them well.
MHO: being aggressive is what got your team there. Stay the course.

Dallas was dominant at home playing the same style of defense all year. GB came to down and DAL inexplicably changed their entire defensive scheme and got boatraced.

So I have no issue with Campbell going for it on either of those plays. And they called a perfect play & Golf threw a perfect pass. Hard to fault Campbell because a WR didn’t execute & catch the bunny.

Those were “go for the throat” plays - another TD and the game is over in the 3rd quarter.

It didn't work out, but the Niners scoring on 5 straight possessions showed everyone why the Lions felt they needed to be as aggresssive as possible.

Tough loss @BobbyLayne - I have the utmost confidence your team will be back in the NFCC next year.

Campbell is who he is and ya gotta love him for it.

Zero problem with them going for it. It was the right call both times.

Sports and especially the NFL is not a linear progression. They're in good shape in terms of the Cap, draft picks, et al. But they may not have another run like this.

I hope they do, but we thought that 32 years ago.

But overall, we have the best GM we've ever had, they constructed the roster the right way, and the arrow is pointing up.

49ers have a LOT more dudes than we do, especially on defense. We have work to do.
 
Dan Campbell said he had no regrets going for the 4th downs and would do it again...

Seriously, has a coach ever admitted he was a failure during a game with his cray calls?
 
The probability of winning was higher going for it in both instances. That means attempting field goals was gambling.

Analytics says both were medium go for it. Wasn’t a strong go for it.

But on the season they were 18/21 on 4th & 3 or less. 86% success rate. They got here in part bc that is their brand of football.

I understand the criticism but I hope MCDC’s continues to keep trusting his players and choosing aggression. It has served them well.
MHO: being aggressive is what got your team there. Stay the course.

Dallas was dominant at home playing the same style of defense all year. GB came to down and DAL inexplicably changed their entire defensive scheme and got boatraced.

So I have no issue with Campbell going for it on either of those plays. And they called a perfect play & Golf threw a perfect pass. Hard to fault Campbell because a WR didn’t execute & catch the bunny.

Those were “go for the throat” plays - another TD and the game is over in the 3rd quarter.

It didn't work out, but the Niners scoring on 5 straight possessions showed everyone why the Lions felt they needed to be as aggresssive as possible.

Tough loss @BobbyLayne - I have the utmost confidence your team will be back in the NFCC next year.

Campbell is who he is and ya gotta love him for it.

Zero problem with them going for it. It was the right call both times.

Sports and especially the NFL is not a linear progression. They're in good shape in terms of the Cap, draft picks, et al. But they may not have another run like this.

I hope they do, but we thought that 32 years ago.

But overall, we have the best GM we've ever had, they constructed the roster the right way, and the arrow is pointing up.

49ers have a LOT more dudes than we do, especially on defense. We have work to do.
lions have exceptional young talent at the skill positions with ARSB, Gibbs, Jamo, LaPorta, etc. On defense they have exciting and talented youth as well. Hutch looks like a future game-wrecker.

The Lions have shown the ability to draft extremely competently, and that alone should keep them competitive.

So long as Goff continues his high level play, you have nothing to worry about next year.

To me the only wildcard is health. Lions were extremely fortunate with health this year, even on LaPorta’s knee, which looked to be season-ending at the time.

That’s a factor for every team though.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

Against the Bears, Vikings, Chargers, Vegas, Saints and Broncos. Some of the powerhouse defenses they faced for the tough 4th down calls.

Analytics are great, but you have to know how to use them and what their limitations are.

First one - Throwing to your 3WR in that spot is also questionable.
Second one - no idea what the play is there
The run at the end - was basic stuff. Total blunder.

They didn’t learn from the Cowboys debacle either:

They couldn’t convert 3 times against Dallas when trying to get the second seed on an ill thought out - double trick tackle eligible play.

Trying to explain this to Lion fans is a waste of time, breath and key strokes. Because, analytics and Campbell has big balls.

Got it, enjoy your big balls on the couch in two weeks. I feel so bad for the players. They deserved better/smarted leadership in those key moments.

But here you wasting that time, breath and key strokes like you have all the answers.
 
The Lions had been far more successful going for 4th and 3 in opponents this year than people think, 18 for 21. In fact, significantly higher than successfully kicking a 48-yard FG. Why is a 70% item considered a sure thing, but an 86% item considered a huge gamble?

Against the Bears, Vikings, Chargers, Vegas, Saints and Broncos. Some of the powerhouse defenses they faced for the tough 4th down calls.

Analytics are great, but you have to know how to use them and what their limitations are.

First one - Throwing to your 3WR in that spot is also questionable.
Second one - no idea what the play is there
The run at the end - was basic stuff. Total blunder.

They didn’t learn from the Cowboys debacle either:

They couldn’t convert 3 times against Dallas when trying to get the second seed on an ill thought out - double trick tackle eligible play.

Trying to explain this to Lion fans is a waste of time, breath and key strokes. Because, analytics and Campbell has big balls.

Got it, enjoy your big balls on the couch in two weeks. I feel so bad for the players. They deserved better/smarted leadership in those key moments.

But here you wasting that time, breath and key strokes like you have all the answers.

Nope, but I understand the limitations of math. It’s not gospel.

Lion’s fans are a special bunch though. No debating them.

“It’s our identity”
 
But here you wasting that time, breath and key strokes like you have all the answers.
When he could be he helping out his one and done Cowboys instead.

Can't, because he knows better and understands the math.

I’m confident Dan Campbell doesn’t understand it.

No team has gone for it more in NFL history despite having average success rates converting.

Not sure what else to tell you…
 
Seeing a lot of tweets and comments about how lucky the Ayuk catch was… Yet somehow nobody seems to be talking about how fortunate was for the Lions on the Jamison Williams touchdown run that his jersey basically tore away like a pair of track pants in the 1990s.

I’m thinking 99 times out of 100 that’s a tackle. If you watch that play again, it’s remarkable how much of that jersey just rips clean off.

The Lions may well still have scored a touchdown there… But it’s also possible that the 49ers held them to a field goal instead.
 
ESPN's Gamecast page has a "win probability" tool that is probably mostly BS, but I found it interesting to see the Packers had a 82.5% win probability in SF last weekend midway through the 4th quarter, and the Lions had a 91.5% win probability mid way through the 3rd quarter yesterday. Its a credit to the 49ers culture imo that they fight to the end.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top