Scoresman
Footballguy
Since a lot of use are in playoff contests and fantasy leagues I thought I would start a thread on the topic. For playoff contests, I feel like one thing they all have in common is the need to identify the teams that will go deep into playoffs, including identifying dark horse candidates. Doing some light research, I've found some key stats to look at that historically appear to give some insight on playoff success. While the playoffs can be unpredictable, looking at a combination of these can give us our best chance at trying to predict outcomes.
- Point differential. In the Superbowl era, teams that were either #1 or 2 in point differential made the Superbowl 79% of the time. Since 1990, teams that have outscored their opponents by more than 100 have won a Superbowl 70% of the time. This shouldn't be much of a surprise as PD has historically been a good indicator of future success. Currently of the likely playoff teams, it looks like the 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Bills fit this criteria.
- End of Season Win Streak (ESWS). Since 1990, teams that have ended the season 3-0 have won the Superbowl 76% of the time. I'm not sure how teams that rest starters and also the recent extension of the regular plays into this, but that is a fairly high rate. Of the teams that have clinched a playoff spot, the Ravens, Rams, and Browns meet this criteria. The Bills would if they make the playoffs.
- Turnover Differential. Since 1990, teams that are at least +10 in TO differential have won the Superbowl 75% of the time. Of the current teams in the playoff race, only the 49ers and Ravens meet the criteria. The Cowboys are knocking at the door at +8.
- Team QB Rating differential: This has long been regarded as a predictive indicator of success in NFL matchups. The 49ers so far lead in Team QB rating at 110.9, but it's worth noting that this has dipped over the last 3 games to 92.3. The Ravens and Dolphins have the highest in the AFC. One thing to note is Dallas' QB rating plummets from 119.4 at home to 86.8 on the road. Buffalo also has a significant decline in QBR on the road. KC and Jax, on the other hand, have a better QBR on the road than at home.
Defense: Since 1990, teams that have allowed the fewest points per game have won the Superbowl 65% of the time. This year so far, that team is The Ravens at 263 PA, followed by the 49ers at 277, and Chiefs at 282
Other things like previous playoff experience, especially for QB and head coach seem to matter.
I will update these first two posts after each weeks' games.
- Point differential. In the Superbowl era, teams that were either #1 or 2 in point differential made the Superbowl 79% of the time. Since 1990, teams that have outscored their opponents by more than 100 have won a Superbowl 70% of the time. This shouldn't be much of a surprise as PD has historically been a good indicator of future success. Currently of the likely playoff teams, it looks like the 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Bills fit this criteria.
- End of Season Win Streak (ESWS). Since 1990, teams that have ended the season 3-0 have won the Superbowl 76% of the time. I'm not sure how teams that rest starters and also the recent extension of the regular plays into this, but that is a fairly high rate. Of the teams that have clinched a playoff spot, the Ravens, Rams, and Browns meet this criteria. The Bills would if they make the playoffs.
- Turnover Differential. Since 1990, teams that are at least +10 in TO differential have won the Superbowl 75% of the time. Of the current teams in the playoff race, only the 49ers and Ravens meet the criteria. The Cowboys are knocking at the door at +8.
- Team QB Rating differential: This has long been regarded as a predictive indicator of success in NFL matchups. The 49ers so far lead in Team QB rating at 110.9, but it's worth noting that this has dipped over the last 3 games to 92.3. The Ravens and Dolphins have the highest in the AFC. One thing to note is Dallas' QB rating plummets from 119.4 at home to 86.8 on the road. Buffalo also has a significant decline in QBR on the road. KC and Jax, on the other hand, have a better QBR on the road than at home.
Defense: Since 1990, teams that have allowed the fewest points per game have won the Superbowl 65% of the time. This year so far, that team is The Ravens at 263 PA, followed by the 49ers at 277, and Chiefs at 282
Other things like previous playoff experience, especially for QB and head coach seem to matter.
I will update these first two posts after each weeks' games.
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