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WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter greenmountaingoat
- Start date
Terpman22
Footballguy
Had the chance to draft this guy 2x in Dynasty one at 1.4 and one at 1.5. Traded out of the 1.4 down to 1.7 and got 2 extra mid 2nds (which turned into Bryce Young/Mingo), Zay Flowers at 1.7.
But man took him at 1.5 in the other and its been frustrating. Never usually go for the boom/bust guys and this is why. Not quite a bust, but if he does nothing without Palmer this weekend I'm gonna start being very concerned.
But man took him at 1.5 in the other and its been frustrating. Never usually go for the boom/bust guys and this is why. Not quite a bust, but if he does nothing without Palmer this weekend I'm gonna start being very concerned.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
3rd drive 1 catch 3 yards
4th drive (last of 1st half) 4 of his 6 targets 3-29
9th drive 1 catch 18 yards
not targeted on 7 of 10 drives
10 points in PPR best week of the season by far
4th drive (last of 1st half) 4 of his 6 targets 3-29
9th drive 1 catch 18 yards
not targeted on 7 of 10 drives
10 points in PPR best week of the season by far
Kiddnets
Footballguy
more importantly he looked good catching and running with the ball. Herbert actually looked his way - Palmer banged up and looked mediocre - best news/game so far for him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think a lot of people don’t believe in him. I know I don’t.
OU#1
Footballguy
You can still pick him up for free sadly…
I dropped him four weeks ago and he’s been on two other teams rosters. He might get dropped and added again…
A tough game vs Sauce and the Jets defense though.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I was unable to watch the game. Did Sauce not shadow Keenan?
I could be wrong but I believe when both corners are healthy they just play 1 side each. I saw Sauce on QJ on a few plays
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Generally Sauce doesn't travel. Going into last night he had played 391 snaps at LCB (92%) and 34 at RCB (8%.)
You are correct, and while I only saw maybe 1/3rd of the game, I think one of the announcers said Gardner was assigned to Johnston on most 3rd downs.
Pietaster2
Footballguy
You’re right. Every time I’d see the ball thrown to QJ, Sauce would be all over him. Really hard to have a breakout game when that guy’s covering you.
Let’s see how he does next week against Detroit. I’d imagine it’ll be a high scoring game where the Chargers have to air it out to keep up. Prime breakout territory.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
What is correctly for him?
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Im actually encouraged, limited work but thought you can see his confidence building, Sauce is the toughest draw in the league and the Jets have a top shelf D
Pietaster2
Footballguy
Most people in the fantasy community aren’t going to acknowledge that variable and only look at the stat line. But in actuality, the arrow is only pointing up and a potential breakout seems likely in the next couple of weeks.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Anything positive will do for me.
Tau837
Footballguy
His success rate by route type from best to worst in his last year in college (2022):
- Flat
- Screen
- Slant
- Corner
- Out
- Post
- Curl
- (Tie)
- Comeback
- Dig
- Nine/Go
- Other
He was arguably the best WR in his draft class at YAC, making it a priority to get him the ball in space, if possible. After drafting him, both the GM and HC specifically commented on that strength of his and the positive impact it would have on the offense... but we haven't really seen that yet.
As a Chargers fan, I don't think they have utilized him well based on his draft profile strengths and weaknesses.
I’m going to need some clarification.
eighsse2
Footballguy
To be fair, yards per route run obviously depends a lot on how often they choose to throw it your way.
But to be truthful, how often they choose to throw it your way typically depends a lot on how well you're doing.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, targets are earned as they say. In some way, being on the field running a ton of routes and not getting targets is almost more damning than someone who just isn't getting a chance to be on the field.
Tau837
Footballguy
My question is, are they having him run the routes that he runs best, giving him the best chance of getting open and getting more targets? I don't think they are. And I don't really understand why.
But I admit that this is an impression from watching the games without doing a deep dive analysis.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah I don't know but it seems like the routes he runs are kind of weak ones like flats, screens and slants. If I took a WR in the first round I would want him to be able to do much more than that.
jtd13
Footballguy
4/34 and a TD on 4 targets, plus 3 DPIs
It was very close to being a huge day (one of the DPIs could have been an 80 yard TD and he still had a good chance to catch it, but didn't) and equally close to being a disastrous day (TD was on 4th and goal from the 1, take that out snd it's a major snoozer). Still seems quite raw.
It was very close to being a huge day (one of the DPIs could have been an 80 yard TD and he still had a good chance to catch it, but didn't) and equally close to being a disastrous day (TD was on 4th and goal from the 1, take that out snd it's a major snoozer). Still seems quite raw.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Something though.
Steady improvement each game works for me.
Steady improvement each game works for me.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Would you still draft him over Josh Downs in dynasty?
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I own both and I would want a slightly higher return to move Downs than QJ.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I would yeah.
If I could go back and redo my draft I most certainly wouldn't take him where I did, but attached to a premium passing QB with an ageing set of vets in front is still a good spot I think.
I didn't like him and didn't really want anything to do with him pre draft but I don't think I know enough about this game to not go for the first round WR in a good landing spot above someone drafted later on with a worse QB, so I took him when the 1.06 came around (and I was unable to trade out of it at good value).
Downs looks good but ARich isn't going to be a guy to elevate more than one receiver in my eyes. We all knew it was going to be a slow start for QJ. Raw, 3rd/4th/5th option maybe, bit of a basketcase franchise generally right now.
If I could go back and redo my draft I most certainly wouldn't take him where I did, but attached to a premium passing QB with an ageing set of vets in front is still a good spot I think.
I didn't like him and didn't really want anything to do with him pre draft but I don't think I know enough about this game to not go for the first round WR in a good landing spot above someone drafted later on with a worse QB, so I took him when the 1.06 came around (and I was unable to trade out of it at good value).
Downs looks good but ARich isn't going to be a guy to elevate more than one receiver in my eyes. We all knew it was going to be a slow start for QJ. Raw, 3rd/4th/5th option maybe, bit of a basketcase franchise generally right now.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That's interesting. Most of these route types are quick hitters but that is a role occupied by Keenan Allen. So not the same opportunity to use him in such a way with Allen dominating that role in the offense.
Do you think they drafted him to take over for Allen somewhere down the line?
I could be wrong but the role of replacing Mike Williams may be what they are asking him to do, but that does not fit his skill set based on this.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
The guy is a rookie WR who has value in dynasty leagues. He has gotten better IMO as the season as gone on. Some of you expect rookie WR to come in and instantly be Jerry Rice.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yes. That's why I said I would still draft him over Downs.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The information must be out there. Does anyone have access to a route and target map similar to what we saw with Calvin Ridley awhile back?
Maybe this is a similar situation where the offense uses a lot of clear out routes to help Allen see less coverage, and this is normally what they would be doing with Mike Williams who is better suited to win these type of routes but Johnston is not?
Maybe this is a similar situation where the offense uses a lot of clear out routes to help Allen see less coverage, and this is normally what they would be doing with Mike Williams who is better suited to win these type of routes but Johnston is not?
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
But...Downs has looked REALLY good with far lesser QB play in a lesser overall offense. Downs was a value in the 2nd round. So far, QJ looks like he was grossly overdrafted. I recognize that could change on QJ, but Downs looks like he is the real deal.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yeah maybe. I'm not sure he's got a ceiling all that much higher than where he is now though. He's the very small, non alpha slot guy in a run first offense. Even if he's the real deal, how much more production can you realistically expect from him?
Shooting for upside with the QJ pick. Much more risky as he could just be bad, but if he isn't, he's got the potential for much more than a guy whose ceiling is probably borderline WR2/3.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Thats fair
jtd13
Footballguy
In general it seems like the small quick guys with refined route trees are a much better bet to hit right away. Route running imo is an area raw guys can improve on in the first 2 years, and good route runners coming in are closer to "maxed out" in that regard.
So in that sense I agree that QJ has more room to grow than a guy like Downs and probably has a better ceiling as a result. But Downs already having that baseline NFL route running skill makes him safer, since there's always the chance that QJ doesn't develop there.
I remember (but can't find now) a quote from Kyle Shanahan about Deebo as a rookie, basically saying yeah he wasn't a refined route runner, but that was something he was confident could be learned, and he didn't care that much about route running in college. Shanahan did a great job of designing more layups for Deebo in the back half of his rookie year. Maybe QJ needs more of that approach early in his career.
So in that sense I agree that QJ has more room to grow than a guy like Downs and probably has a better ceiling as a result. But Downs already having that baseline NFL route running skill makes him safer, since there's always the chance that QJ doesn't develop there.
I remember (but can't find now) a quote from Kyle Shanahan about Deebo as a rookie, basically saying yeah he wasn't a refined route runner, but that was something he was confident could be learned, and he didn't care that much about route running in college. Shanahan did a great job of designing more layups for Deebo in the back half of his rookie year. Maybe QJ needs more of that approach early in his career.
Tau837
Footballguy
I think Allen will retire as a Charger, and right now that looks years away.
I think the team will part with Mike Williams this offseason as part of solving their huge 2024 cap challenge, hopefully via trade but releasing him if they have to. That implies Johnston will be a replacement for Williams, but their strengths and weaknesses are not similar, as you point out. This might also force them away from WR3 Palmer, since a top trio of Allen, Johnston, and Palmer doesn't offer enough differentiation. Personally, I don't think the Chargers front office does a good job of incorporating long term views into their thinking, since everything I just wrote should have been apparent to them when they drafted Johnston.
Tau837
Footballguy
I would love to find a source of data on the routes run by offensive players. PFF shows a distance chart with 12 quadrants (left, middle, right x behind LOS, 0-9 yards from LOS, 10-19 yards from LOS, 20+ yards from LOS), but you cannot tell clearly from that what routes were run.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't know about the development of route running ability leading a WR to having a higher ceiling.
Could you provide some other examples of that besides Samuel?
To me Samuel always had good strength and elusiveness to succeed as a constraint player similar to Percy Harvin and that is something that could be utilized right away while some of finer points of downfield routes could be worked on.
I still think Aiyuk is a better dowfield receiver than Samuel but that does not mean Samuel can't be used and be very productive. We have seen that.
While I think route running can be improved I don't think the good route runners are maxed out as far as this goes. They can get better as well.
Look at Keenan Allen. He was a pretty polished route runner as a rookie but he has certainly built on that with more experience.
A lot of the WR who are athletes but not good technicians never end up panning out. They improve but still not enough. They need a baseline of skill to earn trust of their QBs and coaches for that. See Cordarralle Patterson.
I don't know. To me the truly great ones are great right away for the most part sans injuries holding them back.
DeVante Adam's was an example I found of a WR who broke out later, but most of them have been at least showing promise by year two. The late bloomer is more of an exception.
Even Adam's showed signs of what he would become in his 2nd season. He just missed a few games IIRC.
I agree with this. Something is rotten in denmark here. This couldn't be a more high-powered offense with very few receiving options. You watch guys like tank dell, addison, Michael Wilson outperforming him - that has to raise question marks. year after year bunches of rookies come out and perform really well and mostly fairly well. It's almost rare to have a guy do nothing like this nowadays
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As I said in a earlier post upthread there are some late bloomers and guys who don't do anything as rookies. We have been spoiled a bit as far as expectations go by the great WR class of 2014.
My main disagreement with jtd13's post is the idea that good route runners as rookies are maxed out. I don't think that's the case at all.
Look at Stefon Diggs or Allen or any of these strong route runners early on in their careers. These guys are the ones who ascend most of the time rather than staying stagnant or getting worse.
Antonio Brown is another example of a WR who took awhile before he put up big numbers, but he still had a 1k season in his second year after not doing much as a rookie.
My main disagreement with jtd13's post is the idea that good route runners as rookies are maxed out. I don't think that's the case at all.
Look at Stefon Diggs or Allen or any of these strong route runners early on in their careers. These guys are the ones who ascend most of the time rather than staying stagnant or getting worse.
Antonio Brown is another example of a WR who took awhile before he put up big numbers, but he still had a 1k season in his second year after not doing much as a rookie.
jtd13
Footballguy
I understand your point. I was saying maxed out or close to in reference to being a refined route runner, not maxed out in overall ability. They can still develop other ways, and guys do.
Route running should be something anyone who's profession is NFL wr can learn, is basically how I understood Shanahan. Some guys don't for whatever reason, and all else equal definitely give me the guy who has already mastered that skill, but I think it's low hanging fruit if the guys work at it and are given a chance over the long run to develop there. Davante Adams is an extreme example but I think no one would call him a refined route runner in year 1-2, and he's quit skilled in that area now.
ETA - I didn't read your whole initial post and saw you mentioned adams. I think you are misremembering on him a bit. His 2nd season is when he was the butt of jokes and considered one of the worst WRs in the league by metrics such as Matt Harmon's guide. He showed big improvements in year 3 but was hurt a lot. Then really took off in year 4.
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