I was surprised (not shocked) by the decision to kick a FG but quickly considered the thought process behind it. As demonstrated here, the analytics could go either way depending on the probabilities assigned to various outcomes. Kicking the FG, if not aggressive, is certainly contrarian as it goes against the popular opinion of trying to tie the game.
What I find intriguing is the change in thought process if the game conditions were slightly different. Keep in mind that earlier in the game, down by 5, the Packers failed on a 2 point conversion. At the time, I remarked that I understood the desire to get within 3 but, with this much time left, I might kick the extra point. At least this keeps you within 7 if Tampa were to manage a FG, which is ultimately what happened. Had Green Bay trailed by only 7 as the game wound down, I suspect they try for the TD. Giving the ball back to Brady or the spectre of OT are not a concern. Would anyone attempt a FG in this situation?
What if the ball were on the 3 yard line? Obviously, more play selection and even a scramble is in play when that close to the goal line. As mentioned, Rodgers actually appeared to have a shot to rush it in on 3rd down. But things do close quickly on a short field and he probably assumed he'd have another chance on 4th down.
How about the 15 yard line? Certainly, more people would accept the FG decision as the distance to the goal line increased. For people on either side of the decision, what is the threshold for changing your mind?
The game clock was at a pivotal point in the game - just outside the two minute warning. A point that was possibly in Green Bay's favor or perhaps moot as it could transpire during the kick-off return. Of course, more time on the clock would reinforce the FG decision but how much less time would have forced Green Bay to try for the TD?
One would like to think the NFL teams are prepared for the various down, distance, score and clock scenarios. I suspect they are to a degree but I also think, given the dynamics of the game, they can be forced into some quick decisions. The mechanics behind coaching staff's approach to real time play calling and decision making would be fascinating.