I get your point but we are also talking about a HOFer vs a second year guy in an offense that is proflific because it spreads the ball around. He's a talented kid but he'll also be about the 5th option IMO. I think best scenario has him at 50 catches for 650 and 5-7 TDs for this year.Matt Ryan has targeted TEs in the past. Granted under a different OC & system.
2008: 30 TE Targets: Justin Peelie
2009: 151 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2010: 132 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2011: 134 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2012: 134 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2013: 137 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2014: 55 TE Targets: Levine Toilolo
2015: 98 TE Targets: Jacob Tamme
2016: 77 TE Targets: Jacob Tamme
To me it appears the targets are dependent on the talent. Tony G averaged around 120 targets per year for three years even with Julio, Roddy and a pass catching RB (JaQuizz, Steven Jackson, etc..). I think 100 to 120 targets to the TE position is achievable this year with 80-85%% going to Hooper. He averaged 14 yards per catch and a 70% catch rate last year. I'd bump both those down to be conservative.
He's more talented than Tamme and less talented than Tony G. But there isn't a strong second option for receptions after Julio. So I think it bodes well for him.
I also see your side as well, and it's not without merit. Agree that he won't get Tony G. numbers, but I do think he is better than Tamme.I get your point but we are also talking about a HOFer vs a second year guy in an offense that is proflific because it spreads the ball around. He's a talented kid but he'll also be about the 5th option IMO. I think best scenario has him at 50 catches for 650 and 5-7 TDs for this year.
I actually think he might be a bit over hyped this off-season. He seems to be a very popular sleeper candidate already (lots of people on podcasts dropping his name) and it will only ramp up I imagine.Surpising that Hooper doesn't get more hype.
Falcons sophomore TE Austin Hooper worked out with Matt Ryan this summer.
Ryan is once again working out with the QB gurus at 3DQB training, and Hooper joined him at those workouts in an effort to build chemistry. "Just really was able to build some chemistry with him, on and off the field," Hooper said. "It was a getting a deeper understanding of where he wants me to be, and I feel that's what it's all about." Hooper, Jacob Tamme, and Levine Toilolo combined for just 77 targets last season, so there are some workload concerns even if Hooper is able to command the vast majority of the tight end work. That said, the sophomore has some breakout potential.
Source: ESPN
Jul 18 - 9:51 AM
I don't see a major regression for their offense but what I do wonder about is...I grabbed him in my FFPC startup and was wondering why he went so late. Are the targets there for an improved season though? That's my biggest question. With a likely regression from Matty Ice, Julio/Sanu/Gabriel, Freeman/Coleman getting receptions too I'm not so sure he'll be a priority.
Not sure I draft in normal redraft leagues, but he is a guy to keep an eye on early season because if he carves out a solid role, he could easily be a TE1.It's quiet out there about this guy...too quiet.
He's a sneaky later round pick that shouldn't be forgotten about.
He probably won't be a priority and will be TD dependent. I could see him having a season similar to Hunter Henry last year. Low volume, but gets regular RZ looks.I grabbed him in my FFPC startup and was wondering why he went so late. Are the targets there for an improved season though? That's my biggest question. With a likely regression from Matty Ice, Julio/Sanu/Gabriel, Freeman/Coleman getting receptions too I'm not so sure he'll be a priority.
That seems like the ideal situation, not the most likely outcome though. Believe me I'd love for it to be true.He probably won't be a priority and will be TD dependent. I could see him having a season similar to Hunter Henry last year. Low volume, but gets regular RZ looks.
Like who? Are you talking about TE or other positions?Not enough volume/targets for my taste...I'd rather roll the dice on higher upside players going at or below Hooper's ADP.
Gates is good value there. I know people like Hunter Henry but Gates had 40 more targets than HH last season. Gates has been a TE1 for 13 straight years in standard.Other TEs who also have an ADP in the 13th round are Witten, Gates, Brate, Allen, Fleener, Julius Thomas.
Allen has upside if Gronk goes down.
Witten has no upside. Fleener doesn't have much upside, Brate will get his red zone looks. Idk about Julius Thomas, maybe some upside, but I'd rather have the guy in the elite offense with a great QB.
Austin Hooper caught six passes for 49 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta's Week 10 win over Dallas.
Hooper was involved early, with three catches for 26 yards at half. He scored a goal-line touchdown in the fourth quarter after being tackled at the one-yard line on the previous play. Hooper still hasn't went over 50 yards since his breakout in the season opener, but is trending up going into Week 11.
The Falcons want TE Austin Hooper to be more consistent this season.
Hooper didn't live up to expectations last year, managing just two 50-plus yard games. He disappeared for stretches despite solid targets and was sixth among tight ends in drops. With Calvin Ridley added this offseason, it's hard to see a post-hype Hooper breakout. Hooper should make his biggest impact in the red-zone.
Source: ESPN
Jul 17 - 10:27 AM
Seems like a pretty silly statement on their part.it's hard to see a post-hype Hooper breakout.
Agree completely. Picked him in a lot of mfl10s ridiculously late.Seems like a pretty silly statement on their part.
Sure he has his warts, but he plays at a position where young guys are supposed to have warts. Fantasy wise he's improved in his first two years basically exactly how you're looking for in a young TE, and then headed into year 3 (at a position where guys aren't even supposed to be real contributors until year 3 or beyond) his team let go of every little ounce of competition they had at the position. And to boot, he plays on a pretty good offense with a pretty good QB.
This is why you don't draft rookie TEs. If I told you 2 years ago that I went into the future and Hooper would be heading into year 3 as the locked in starting TE for the Falcons coming off a 49-526 sophomore campaign as a part-time player then everyone would have been ecstatic about that. But when it actually happens....meh, you could probably pick him up for a mid-3rd.
I agree with your statement, but Hooper has a lot of talent to compete for targets with. Jones and Sanu downfield, both rbs for checkdowns, now Ridley. I like the spot but he might need an injury to really make an impact or get any consistency. He will need a solid td total to be worth starting. If he plays a more full time role maybe he gets a handful more rec but I don’t see a big jump coming in his totals.Seems like a pretty silly statement on their part.
Sure he has his warts, but he plays at a position where young guys are supposed to have warts. Fantasy wise he's improved in his first two years basically exactly how you're looking for in a young TE, and then headed into year 3 (at a position where guys aren't even supposed to be real contributors until year 3 or beyond) his team let go of every little ounce of competition they had at the position. And to boot, he plays on a pretty good offense with a pretty good QB.
This is why you don't draft rookie TEs. If I told you 2 years ago that I went into the future and Hooper would be heading into year 3 as the locked in starting TE for the Falcons coming off a 49-526 sophomore campaign as a part-time player then everyone would have been ecstatic about that. But when it actually happens....meh, you could probably pick him up for a mid-3rd.
People always say things like this, but over the past couple decades good TEs have pretty reliably contributed within their first 2 seasons. Most good fantasy TEs were fantasy starters by year 2, and most elite fantasy TEs had a huge year within their first 2 seasons.voiceofunreason said:(at a position where guys aren't even supposed to be real contributors until year 3 or beyond
I was DEAD wrong on this....Matt Ryan has targeted TEs in the past. Granted under a different OC & system.
2008: 30 TE Targets: Justin Peelie
2009: 151 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2010: 132 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2011: 134 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2012: 134 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2013: 137 TE Targets: Tony Gonzales
2014: 55 TE Targets: Levine Toilolo
2015: 98 TE Targets: Jacob Tamme
2016: 77 TE Targets: Jacob Tamme
To me it appears the targets are dependent on the talent. Tony G averaged around 120 targets per year for three years even with Julio, Roddy and a pass catching RB (JaQuizz, Steven Jackson, etc..). I think 100 to 120 targets to the TE position is achievable this year with 80-85%% going to Hooper. He averaged 14 yards per catch and a 70% catch rate last year. I'd bump both those down to be conservative.
He's more talented than Tamme and less talented than Tony G. But there isn't a strong second option for receptions after Julio. So I think it bodes well for him.
Right, but I don't think it's unheard of to see his targets go up. I don't think I ever would have agreed with 100 targets. I certainly think more than 65 is realistic. It's obvious ATL likes to use their TEs. Hooper is better than Tamme in the passing game (IMO), so I don't think it's a talent issue. I can see him getting 75-80 targets this year, and that's probably his ceiling. His YPR took a huge dive last year compared to his rookie season, so I think it's reasonable to expect him to increase off 10.7. I think where he can improve the most is as a RZ target.I was DEAD wrong on this....
The thing is when he had a HoF TE, he targeted the hell out of him. Now the other TEs weren't so good and he didn't target them. Sure there could be some variance with coaches/systems but it seems most likely that the number of targets Hooper gets will depend on how good he is. Good players demand targets.I was DEAD wrong on this....
Right, but I don't think it's unheard of to see his targets go up. I don't think I ever would have agreed with 100 targets. I certainly think more than 65 is realistic. It's obvious ATL likes to use their TEs. Hooper is better than Tamme in the passing game (IMO), so I don't think it's a talent issue. I can see him getting 75-80 targets this year, and that's probably his ceiling. His YPR took a huge dive last year compared to his rookie season, so I think it's reasonable to expect him to increase off 10.7. I think where he can improve the most is as a RZ target.
I agree - I just like to call out my mistakes. I was thinking there was room for a big jump last year but it didn't happen. I think you are closer to reality. If he gets the RZ targets he could be a good play. I've still got him on a rookie deal in RSO and I'll hold because there is zero interest in him.Right, but I don't think it's unheard of to see his targets go up. I don't think I ever would have agreed with 100 targets. I certainly think more than 65 is realistic. It's obvious ATL likes to use their TEs. Hooper is better than Tamme in the passing game (IMO), so I don't think it's a talent issue. I can see him getting 75-80 targets this year, and that's probably his ceiling. His YPR took a huge dive last year compared to his rookie season, so I think it's reasonable to expect him to increase off 10.7. I think where he can improve the most is as a RZ target.
A lot to like here. I think he's vastly underrated. I tried to sell so far in dynasty (I don't want to but to upgrade elsewhere) and no interest at all. Not even as a TE2. Which is odd. ATL has some very significant success at the TE position, at least with targets as you showed.
Tony G averaged 120 targets during his time in ATL.I feel as though Atlanta holds the perfect opportunity for a tight end to shine. Strong seasoned QB with good accuracy, WR’s that can stretch the field, and a running game that needs to be respected and isn’t one dimensional. Coupled with a defense that is bend don’t break. So why have we not seen as much success from the TE position specifically? On my phone so hard to do some quick interneting but was Gonzo the last top 15 TE for ATL?
Austin Hooper will not participate in minicamp because of an ankle injury.
The injury is reportedly minor, and Hooper is expected to be ready for training camp. The tight end set career-highs across the board with a 71-660-4 line last season, and he could take another step forward this year under new OC Dirk Koetter.
SOURCE: Jason Butt on Twitter
Jun 10, 2019, 11:08 AM ET
Not bumping this to say gotcha or anything like that. I just happened to read this when the newest blurp came out about him today. 88 targets last year. If anybody's target share grows this year I would guess Ridley. But 88 isn't wildly higher than these past 4 seasons. He might get a few more this year but I think it's more likely he dips a few down to say 80. Was just thinking about whether to take him in a best ball in the 9th round (TE premium) but am going to wait.Tony G averaged 120 targets during his time in ATL.
Since he retired the most targets the TE has seen in each year:
2014: 54 Toilolo
2015: 81 Tamme
2016: 59 (Tamme and Hooper combined)
2017: 65 Hooper
Where will the targets come from?
Honestly, I think Hooper is who he is and nothing more. I sold.
Yeah I was a little off. No worries in quoting this. I did trade him away and regretted it. I'm still not overly impressed with him, but I think that makes him an under the radar play (maybe subscriber contest...)Not bumping this to say gotcha or anything like that. I just happened to read this when the newest blurp came out about him today. 88 targets last year. If anybody's target share grows this year I would guess Ridley. But 88 isn't wildly higher than these past 4 seasons. He might get a few more this year but I think it's more likely he dips a few down to say 80. Was just thinking about whether to take him in a best ball in the 9th round (TE premium) but am going to wait.
Coach Dan Quinn believes contract-year TE Austin Hooper is "ready to go to another level" with his play in 2019.
The Falcons brought in Mike Mularkey to coach tight ends, and apparently the relationship between he and Hooper has been good to this point. Mularkey is known as a phenomenal position coach who just couldn't cut it leading a team. Hooper set career highs last year with his 71-660-4 receiving line, but if he can take the next step forward, there's no doubt he can join the second tier of fantasy tight ends. He's flying under the radar in this electric offense.
SOURCE: Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jul 17, 2019, 9:39 AM ET
Austin Hooper (ankle) is "good to go" for training camp.
Hooper was sidelined during minicamp because of his ankle injury, but he's in no danger of missing Week 1. Coach Dan Quinn believes Hooper is "ready to go to another level" in 2019 with another year of experience under his belt. With the Falcons offensive line looking improved, this is an offense worth buying. Hooper caught 71 passes last year but will need to show more explosiveness to be a weekly TE1.
SOURCE: Vaughn McClure on Twitter
Jul 21, 2019, 6:44 PM ET
His efficiency numbers are already pretty good. Career so far 77% catch rate and 8 yard per target decent for a TE.Hankmoody said:71 catches last year - all he's gotta do is improve the efficiency and he's a breakout candidate big-time.
with it kind of being the top 3 and then everybody else....I think you are going to find something about each guy from #4 on to about #18 being a potential "sleeper/breakout".....its then kind of a matter of like sifting through the trash to find "the next Kittle"....if I can't get a top 3 guy, I'll probably set my sight on McDonald unless I can get Henry or Cook at a discount....worst case scenario I roll the dice on TJ Hock late and live with it....I actually think he might be a bit over hyped this off-season. He seems to be a very popular sleeper candidate already (lots of people on podcasts dropping his name) and it will only ramp up I imagine.
Yeah poorly worded, I meant effectiveness. He only averaged 8.x YPR, and that's baaaad. If he can get to just 11.0 or so and add a few TD's he'd make the jump I was indicating and be a 200 pointer.His efficiency numbers are already pretty good. Career so far 77% catch rate and 8 yard per target decent for a TE.
I was just looking at Pff projection for Hooper which is slightly more conservative than mine.
Pff catch 61-of-78.1 targets for 644.7 yards (how many TD??)
Me - 80 targets 66 receptions 693 yards 4 TD.
Pff projection makes sense using his career numbers for catch rate although they are slightly low on the ypt numbers.
My projection throws out Hoopers rookie season and that is how I get the higher catch rate and ypt
Both are conservative projections and less than Hooper accomplished last season.
I definitely think that's possible.Yeah poorly worded, I meant effectiveness. He only averaged 8.x YPR, and that's baaaad. If he can get to just 11.0 or so and add a few TD's he'd make the jump I was indicating and be a 200 pointer.
Austin Hooper caught 4-of-5 targets for 34 yards in Week 2 against the Eagles.
Hooper was involved early but faded over the second half of the game. His five targets were behind Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu. It's a step back from the season opener, but Hooper has one of the higher tight end floors despite playing in a crowded offense. Hooper is a low-end TE1 for Week 3 against the Colts.
Sep 16, 2019, 12:20 AM ET