Previous years' writeups:
2016,
2015,
2014,
2013,
2012,
2011 a &
b,
2010.
My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment to compare positions, follow the numbers except for judgment calls when guys are close or there's breaking news, adjust position values slightly as the draft progresses.
1.12 WR AJ Green CIN
Was hoping for Gronk (who I see as the last tier 2 player in this format) or Kelce (who is the last of tier 3). I actually have Jordy & Olsen projected very slightly ahead of Green, but I'm worried about Jordy's risk of age-related decline and Olsen seems like he might make it back to me in the 2nd. Plus my gut check favors Green. Also considered: TE Greg Olsen, WR Jordy Nelson.
2.05 TE Greg Olsen CAR
And he did make it back. Olsen ranked 14th, 5th, and 8th in scoring among non-QBs over the past 3 seasons. Seems like a safe bet to stay near the top this year. Also considered: WR Michael Thomas.
3.12 TE Zach Ertz PHI
Seems like TEs are falling too far. Ertz ranked 18th and 27th in scoring among non-QBs over the past 2 seasons, so he seems like good value here as the 35th non-QB off the board. Eifert is tempting, but I'm worried about the injury risk plus increased competition for targets. Also considered: WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Tyler Eifert, TE Kyle Rudolph.
4.05 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN
Last year's #2 TE in this format. I wasn't planning to take my flex in round 4, and I am
relatively down on Rudolph after his Pettigrewesque 2016 breakout (high volume, low efficiency on a weapon-starved offense). But once Jeffery was off the board the gap in value here was too big to pass up, even after downgrading Rudolph compared to how others are projecting him and downgrading all TEs to try to maintain roster flexibility. 2 PPR matters a lot, even if he's "just" a 70 reception guy. Also considered: QB Cam Newton, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Julian Edelman.
5.12 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI
The end of a tier, in my eyes (with just Sanders straggling not too far behind). Some chance of age-related decline at 34, or of Palmer's performance dropping off a cliff, but he was still going strong last year en route to 108/1028/6 (which matched Brandin Cooks's fantasy production) and even has some upside above that if Palmer bounces back closer to his 2015 form. Also considered: none.
6.05 RB Spencer Ware KC
With all the big scorers gone, the rest of the draft is more about filling all 18 slots with solid players who won't blow up in your face (though of course some upside is nice too). And that usually means starting to fill the RB slots with guys who are at least committee backs. Ware fits the bill, and still has a shot at being a workhorse - mid-round rookies usually don't just come in and take over. Also considered: RB Mark Ingram, QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Andy Dalton.
7.12 RB Mark Ingram NO
The Saints RB corps always scores a ton of fantasy points, divided among multiple players, thanks to a bunch of RB receptions and touchdowns. Ingram could lose carries to Peterson and targets to Kamara, but he has a pretty high floor as a versatile part of the committee and decent upside if Peterson or Kamara don't win larger workloads than Hightower or Cadet had. Also considered: QB Tyrod Taylor.
8.05 QB Bills BUF
Tyrod Taylor's running makes him a relatively safe bet to at least be a solid middle-of-the-pack QB, like he has been the past couple years, and he has some upside if Buffalo throws more. He was on my short list 2 rounds ago, so I'm glad to get him here. With some shaky quarterbacking situations in NY, CHI, LA, SF, CLE, and maybe HOU & DEN, it also seems like a bad season to wait on QB until the end of the draft. Also considered: RB Frank Gore.
9.12 QB Dolphins MIA
Got the guy I was hoping for. Ryan Tannehill is another solid middle-of-the-pack QB who successfully keeps the dregs off my roster. He feels like a safer bet to be non-terrible, compared to the other obvious QB options here (Bortles, Bradford & co., Alex Smith / Mahomes). And he has at least some upside in his 2nd year in Gase's system, with Parker showing signs of emerging as a star. Woodhead or Gostkowski would've been worth considering, but with them off the board this was an easy pick. (Update: this pick looks much worse with Tannehill's injury, and Bradford still available in round 12.) Also considered: none.
10.05 RB Matt Forte NYJ
Going into the back half of the draft, I need 3 more WRs and 2 each at RB, PK, and DST. There were similarly valued players available at each of those positions. I decided to break the near-tie by going with RB, since I usually have my 3rd RB by this point and I would like to get my RBs before the committee backs give way to dart throws. Forte seems pretty safely locked in to his committee role. Powell is likely to have the larger role, and the Jets are likely to be terrible, but that information is already baked into Forte's projection which has him at the top of my RB board. Also considered: WR Kenny Britt, DST New England Patriots, PK Matt Bryant.
11.12 DST Patriots NWE
Bradford, Bortles, and Alex Smith are the top 3 players on my draft board; I guess I should've waited on QB instead of taking Tannehill. Vinatieri and the Pats D were neck-and-neck for the lead among the positions where I still have space. I was going to break the tie in favor of the kicker since they run out, but Luck's injury shifted things the other way. The Patriots are consistently among the better fantasy defenses, and they are likely to get playoff points. I'll probably use 2 of my next 3 picks on kickers. Also considered: PK Adam Vinatieri.
12.05 PK Adam Vinatieri IND
The Luck injury is likely a minor issue, and was a tiebreaker rather than a dealbreaker with my last pick, so Vinatieri is the play here. I don't want a repeat of last year where kicker troubles cost me the league. Also considered: DST Kansas City Chiefs, DST Arizona Cardinals, RB Kareem Hunt, PK Cairo Santos.
13.12 PK Phil Dawson ARI
Solid team, secure job. I want to nail down the kicker spot with either this pick or the next one, since I'm at least a little worried about job security for every kicker left except for Dawson, Lambo, Hauschka, and Succop (and the least risky options among the rest are also on pretty terrible teams). And I see a wider gap between those 4 kickers than I do between the 4 WRs than I'm eyeing, so I'll go with the kicker here. Also considered: DST Chiefs, WR Ted Ginn, WR Marqise Lee, WR Kevin White, WR Tyler Lockett.
14.05 WR Tyler Lockett SEA
He'll roughly be worth this slot if he just repeats his 2015-16 production, and he has some upside as a 3rd year WR who has flashed talent and is competing for Seattle's #2 receiver spot. (Though also some downside risk from the leg injury.) Also considered: WR Marqise Lee, DST Chiefs.
15.12 WR Marqise Lee JAX
Glad to get 2 of the WRs that I passed on in round 13. Similar to Lockett, Lee may have overtaken Hurns as the Jaguars' #2 receiver and he should at least be regularly involved as their 3rd receiver. Relatively high floor with some upside. Also considered: none.
16.05 RB Shane Vereen NYG
Vereen's per-game production in New York has been similar to Sproles's in Philly. Vereen does have more injury risk, but I think people are discounting him too much based on last year's torn triceps. There is some uncertainty about Vereen's role, but less so than for most RBs in the last third of this draft, and that uncertainty includes some possibility of getting a larger role than expected. Went RB because options are a lot thinner there than at WR or DST. Also considered: DST Rams, WR Chris Conley.
17.12 DST Bills BUF
I strongly considered Mike Williams here, before deciding that I didn't want to take that gamble and that the much safer, lower-upside Terrance Williams belonged at the top of my WR board. But there will be 3 defenses going off the board before my next pick, compared with only 2 flex players, so I went defense here. The Bills have a strong line which should get its share of sacks, and a new coaching staff who could help them play better as a team. Also considered: WR Terrance Williams, WR Mike Williams, DST Colts.
18.05 WR Terrance Williams DAL
Williams has averaged 44/699/5 during his career (regular season only), with a low of 594 yards. Upside is very limited, but he seems like a safe bet to be in that range again (since Dallas hasn't added competition). Also considered: WR Mike Williams, WR J.J. Nelson.
Review: I like this team. Seems like a relatively safe, solid roster (though of course any roster can wind up getting ravaged by injuries, or suspensions, or vets hitting the wall, or depth chart shuffles). Pretty happy with the RB/WR contributors I was able to get late after focusing on QB, DST, and PK in the mid-rounds. This team is not dripping with upside, but for a lot of vets some decline was priced in so they can outproduce their draft slot even if they just repeat their numbers from 2015 or 2016 (Rudolph, Fitzgerald, Ware, Ingram, Forte, Vereen, Williams). And the TEs could put up a ton of points in this format, even if their names don't sound exciting. Going 3 TEs early ended up working out fine - if I hadn't then I might've ended up with Zach Miller late but I also could've just wound up flexing a WR. Late-breaking news means slight downgrades to QB Dolphins and DST Bills and a slight upgrade to Ertz; the combined effect only hurts me a little (though it is weird to be a surprise Jay Cutler owner).
According to the projections that I used to draft, the best non-me teams belong to Blinky, [icon], BassNBrew, and jhexel.