need2know
Footballguy
Yeah but everyone else is too. He's a rb3 with upside. But anyone reaching for him to be their rb2 in round 5 or earlier is going to get burned. Most likely by injury
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Official Arian Foster - All Foster news, all the time (2 Viewers)
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Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Loving him as my RB5 ....
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call me the grand optimist, but I think he stays fairly healthy this year. He knows his body - and probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He's a strange dude, I don't think he can be written off because of age/injury just yet. His motivation comes from places unlike most NFL players. Love him in Miami with Gase this year ... Anything beyond that is blah - but I think he surprises everyone this year.
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call me the grand optimist, but I think he stays fairly healthy this year. He knows his body - and probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He's a strange dude, I don't think he can be written off because of age/injury just yet. His motivation comes from places unlike most NFL players. Love him in Miami with Gase this year ... Anything beyond that is blah - but I think he surprises everyone this year.
need2know
Footballguy
Maybe so. But are you going to burn a high draft pick and put your money where your mouth is? I won't
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Nope.
Well what's your definition of a high draft pick?
i already own him, dynasty - my RB5. So I'm in without much investment. Which is why injury does not worry me.
someine mentioned he just went in the 6th round of a draft, and said it was too high - I disagree with that wholeheartedly.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
His upside is literally rb1 overall
His downside is literally 0 points
Interesting case study on how people view risk
His downside is literally 0 points
Interesting case study on how people view risk
TripItUp
Footballguy
I don't believe his realistic upside is RB1 overall, but I don't fault somebody for profiling him as such.
bostonfred
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
highly unlikely at 30, but to each his own...I might say top 5 upside, particularly in PPR
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KingPrawn
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Jamaal charles born december 27 1986 coming off season ending acl injury. This is his second season ending acl injury in 4 years, and one of the other years he was limited by a high ankle sprain. As of now he is still on the pup list and his return date is unknown. His healthy backups were highly successful without him and the team is expected to use them more. Last year charles had 537 yards and 5 tds in 5 games
Arian foster born august 24 1986 - 4 months and 3 days older than charles - has drawn praise for annihilating his conditioning tests. The team has said they want to ride their rb1. Foster is expected to be their rb1. Ajayi and drake have both been injured. Last year foster had 390 yards and 3 tds in 4 games.
Charles is going at 2.2.
Arian foster born august 24 1986 - 4 months and 3 days older than charles - has drawn praise for annihilating his conditioning tests. The team has said they want to ride their rb1. Foster is expected to be their rb1. Ajayi and drake have both been injured. Last year foster had 390 yards and 3 tds in 4 games.
Charles is going at 2.2.
msommer
Footballguy
I personally would rather take the risk on Charles and his two bionic knees over waiting and taking Foster and his buffet of ailments. Your argument sounds compelling at first glance, but when you consider Foster only averaged 2.6ypc last year pre injury and is in a new system, I don't know what to expect. It's encouraging to hear he is moving well in camp, but I would say Lamar Miller stats from last year are his absolute ceiling if he stays healthy. That could put him in the top 10, but Charles ceiling seems higher to me, like #1 overall RB. He was still avg over 5ypc last year and in the same system. Seems easier to forecast his production.bostonfred said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
Exactly! Give me one of these risk free running backs who are going ahead of him
3.4 thomas rawls - "getting really close"to coming off the pup list so he can compete for the starting job
3.9 Cj anderson - bust last year, den drafted a rookie who is getting good reviews and lost their top 2 qbs
4.6 Demarco Murray - probably going to get over half the carries for a terrible team with an unimaginative offense
4.9 Dion Lewis - might not start the season on the PUP list
4.11 Jeremy Langford - a nice john fox committee back with a mediocre ypc who will probably share touchdown duties. Look at that upside!
5.1 jeremy hill - yeah he disappointed last year but at least he has hue oh
5.2 matt jones - mattiocre
5.6 jonathan stewart - much younger and less injury prone than foster wait no the opposite of that
5.9 ryan mathews - see stewart, jonathan
5.10 deangelo williams - at least you know he'll start for 4 games unless bell somehow appeals his suspension
6.4 chris ivory - hes like jordan howard but older
6.5 melvin gordon - maybe this is the year he beats out danny woodhead
With all those good safe picks at rb you'd be crazy to take a guy drawing rave reviews in camp.
bagger
Footballguy
If I can get him in the 8th or later I will take him knowing I will get RB 1 production for a certain # of weeks for what I foresee as an inevitable injury. Similar to Deangelo Williams honestly.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
There is no way he stays healthy all year
need2know
Footballguy
I agree with the poster above who stated he's going to end up going in the third round to some fool
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Guy has talent. He has a name. Most everyone wants to see him have success. Guy looks good in camp so far. He's getting so much pop, he's moving the needle on his ADP and will continue to do so as long as he remains healthy/ gets praise from the coaching staff. That puts him out of the "sleeper" and "value" list and puts him right up there with the plethora of "problem" RBS that seeme to permeate Rounds 2 -5. I think he's suffering a bit from "The Fat Chick at the Bar at Midnight" syndrome. We're all so desperate to get laid........ that even the porker looks hot. I can't touch him in the third/early 4th. If he's there at the 4/5 turn.....I might take a chance. But if there's a stud QB or WR3 there......I'll probably wait.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
1st Dolphins Depth Chart... has Ajayi ahead of Foster. 
Koya
Footballguy
Not sure how anyone can realistically have his ceiling as top RB overall. Does that mean my upside for running a 100m is still under 11 seconds? I mean, I've done it before!
we aren't talking about a guy who is one season removed from greatness or is dealing with recovery from his first major injury.
More like upside is as an RB1 that could perhaps be a top ten PPG guy, but anything above that is really wishful thinking.
#1 overall RB? That's crazy talk.
we aren't talking about a guy who is one season removed from greatness or is dealing with recovery from his first major injury.
More like upside is as an RB1 that could perhaps be a top ten PPG guy, but anything above that is really wishful thinking.
#1 overall RB? That's crazy talk.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Means nothing.1st Dolphins Depth Chart... has Ajayi ahead of Foster.
Just updated the Ajayi thread.
If Foster is ready to go......he will be your Dolphins starting RB. Ajayi will be mixed in to spot him....but nothing more than that. They will ride Foster this season until they can't.
Todem
Footballguy
His value is less with this Dolphins offense IMO. Until proven otherwise....we don't have much of a passing game that threatens down field. Lamar Miller was successful because he had incredible burst. Foster is not that kind of runner now. He needs great zone blocking and is a one cut runner. His explosion will not be the same coming off an Achilles injury. Ceiling IMO is a solid RB2 if he plays 14-16 games. I would not touch him till round 4 at the earliest....even there based on his recent injury history...a risk. Plus this team will stink. We will play from behind....often.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
His value would be mostly in volume and GL. Not sure how much of this was Gase and how much was Fox, but the Bears led the league in rushing attempts last year. The downside is that despite having one of the best pass catching backs in recent memory, the Bears only RBs only caught 70 balls which was 23rd worst. Foster seems to excel most as a pass catcher so it could be a problem if he isn't utilized as such.
Todem
Footballguy
Well the fact we will probably play from behind may lend itself to dump offs and such. But Tannehill is not great at using his safety valve options. He get's locked in down field, holds the ball too long sometimes and does not step up in the pocket to boot. For a guy with great athleticism he sure does not use it much. What's crazy is his rookie year...was the best he looked in the pocket and making things happen with his feet....all downhill since..bizarre.
His pocket presence is below average. Kills me man.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right, sometimes it is hard to parse out if these stats are related to the HC, OC, QB RB personnel, or game flow. I think playing from behind is honesly what might be best for Foster. He wasn't good in Houston last year at rushing, but he was good at catching passes and scoring in catch-up/garbage time. For me, Foster is a 7th round value since he has concerns about effectiveness, offensive role, quality of offense, and injury. That is pretty much every question mark in the book.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Just so we can put this to bed
In 2010 foster had 2220 yards and 18 tds in 16 games on 327 carries
In 2011 foster had 1841 yards and 12 tds in 13 games on 278 carries
In 2012 foster had 1641 yards and 17 tds in 16 games. This was his high water mark for carries with 351.
In 2013 foster had 725 yards and 2 tds in 8 games.
In 2014 foster had 1573 yards and 13 tds in 13 games on 260 carries. He was the number one rb in fantasy ppg and number 5 in total points.
In the 2015 offseason, he hurt his groin and had preseason sports hernia season that was supposed to keep him out until mid october. The owner who would later release foster started saying negative things about him in the press. Foster missed just 3 games and had 8 rushes for 10 yards and 3 catches for 25 in his debut. Yuck. The next week? 19 for 41 rushing and 9 for 77 receiving. Then 18 for 53 and 5 for 59 receiving with a td. Then 18 for 59 and a td plus 5 for 66 receiving and a second td. It was on his 18th carry - actually a bunch of consecutive carries at the end of a blowout - that foster got hurt, because BoB apparently wanted to run him back into shape.
Remember that the prior season he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and was literally the best back in fantasy football per game.
So in the 4 games he came back early from sports hernia surgery, where he had a disappointing 390 total yards and 3 tds in 4 games and his ypc increased every single week while he averaged over 8 yards per catch each week. I reject the idea that he had just suddenly fallen off the cliff.
The bigger question is whether he's healthy right now. If he came back anything close to full speed it will be better than what he was last year, and the dolphins aren't acting like he's slowed down. But he did have an achilles tear, and that's a nasty injury. If you're interested in reading, here's an interesting article on the injury and return to performance
http://www.dynastytradecalculator.com/arian-foster.html
Tldr - he still has literally number one overall player upside. And he still could get injured before the season and be worth nothing.
In 2010 foster had 2220 yards and 18 tds in 16 games on 327 carries
In 2011 foster had 1841 yards and 12 tds in 13 games on 278 carries
In 2012 foster had 1641 yards and 17 tds in 16 games. This was his high water mark for carries with 351.
In 2013 foster had 725 yards and 2 tds in 8 games.
In 2014 foster had 1573 yards and 13 tds in 13 games on 260 carries. He was the number one rb in fantasy ppg and number 5 in total points.
In the 2015 offseason, he hurt his groin and had preseason sports hernia season that was supposed to keep him out until mid october. The owner who would later release foster started saying negative things about him in the press. Foster missed just 3 games and had 8 rushes for 10 yards and 3 catches for 25 in his debut. Yuck. The next week? 19 for 41 rushing and 9 for 77 receiving. Then 18 for 53 and 5 for 59 receiving with a td. Then 18 for 59 and a td plus 5 for 66 receiving and a second td. It was on his 18th carry - actually a bunch of consecutive carries at the end of a blowout - that foster got hurt, because BoB apparently wanted to run him back into shape.
Remember that the prior season he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and was literally the best back in fantasy football per game.
So in the 4 games he came back early from sports hernia surgery, where he had a disappointing 390 total yards and 3 tds in 4 games and his ypc increased every single week while he averaged over 8 yards per catch each week. I reject the idea that he had just suddenly fallen off the cliff.
The bigger question is whether he's healthy right now. If he came back anything close to full speed it will be better than what he was last year, and the dolphins aren't acting like he's slowed down. But he did have an achilles tear, and that's a nasty injury. If you're interested in reading, here's an interesting article on the injury and return to performance
http://www.dynastytradecalculator.com/arian-foster.html
Tldr - he still has literally number one overall player upside. And he still could get injured before the season and be worth nothing.
DropKick
Footballguy
Langford actually averaged a full yard better than Foster last year... Last time I saw Foster play he looked over the hill. It's easy to put a negative spin on any RB as the league is loaded with question marks and committees. As a fan, I want Foster to do well but I stand my first statement - 5th round is too high for me.
And, yes, even with the question marks I'll take my chances with younger players. Oft injured, 30 year old backs aren't the best bet on the board.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
It all comes down to risk vs reward. With Arian--the risk is not in regards to talent or production--it's solely based on health. Last season he was only able to play 4 games because of health. For those 4 games--he ranked 6th best in RBs in average fantasy points per game using PPR scoring. When healthy--the dude produces--and there is no reason to think otherwise this year. For me---I'd probably start considering betting on his health around the sixth round--and would get more and more interested if he falls past that.
Chaka
Footballguy
It's a solid analysis but remind me how many of those seasons occurred after a torn achilles? He was great, maybe he still is great but the odds are very strongly stacked against him returning to RB1 overall status and he should be drafted with that in mind.
bostonfred
Footballguy
You literally clipped the quote at exactly the point where i discussed that and posted an article specifically about elite athletes returning from achilles injuries.
There are three important points
1) had his play fallen off due to age before the injury. No. Thats the part you quoted.
2) will he have a starting job. This whole thread discusses that, and all signs from the team point to yes.
3) will he recover fully from the achilles. The article i linked discusses it more, but the answer is basically "it's more likely than you think".
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It's a weird thing to bet on. So let's say Foster is a rb1 for what 6-8 weeks and in that time because of his low draft spot he actually wins you 6-8 games. How is that not a huge boost to your team and your chances of winning the season?I love the way the Arian Foster hype train is beginning to pick up steam. Woo, woo! All aboard, everyone!
This train is so not going to crash after a few weeks when Foster totally inevitably gets hurt again, oh no, this is not totally predictable, oh no.
But even that hypothesis is wildly optimistic. Even if he is not hurt the Fins running game is going to be terrible and he is going to be in a RBBC because he's too old and too hurt to carry a full-time load. A good week for him if he is not hurt is going to be 60-70 yards. That's not going to win you many games.
Todem
Footballguy
If he were still a Texan. Yeah.
But now he has the pleasure of the hot garbage known as the Dolphins OL/offense. Dude I would love nothing more than Arian to be a stud here. But this team sucks. It might be uglier than last season man. Seriously. It's a tear down and rebuild year here. Gase has his hands full. He inherited pure garbage other than Landry and potentially Parker, Tunsil, Leonte Caroo and to a longer shot Ajayi. The offense is a hot mess right now in camp. I am talking horrid bad. The OL is a mess and our QB is not the answer. Tough spot for Foster to land.
Not kidding man.
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I think that is badly, badly under valuing foster.
Maybe a good week is 60-70 on the ground and then 4 catches for 30-40 yards which total is putting him well into rb1 territory. I realize his adp is trending up right now but two weeks ago (which was just after he was signed) he went in the 15th round in my pro league.
Chaka
Footballguy
No. It's not more likely than I think. I am not arguing against him returning to play, he's doing that. However it is rare for a player, any player, to recover from an achilles tear and return to their prior form. It is even more rare at the RB position and increasingly rare past the age of 29.
The article you link only discusses return to play (RTP) not return to form. For that we only have the Parkeh study and the Mai study, which your link quotes, they are right that the procedures have changed but for them to implicate Parkeh for a small sample size (n=31), and dismiss the parts of the Mai study (n=80) that contradict the primary study they focus on, which has n=9, is hilarious.
It is more likely that he will return in a diminished capacity (i.e. nowhere close to RB1 overall) and, if he manages to make it through a full season healthy then in 2017 he may see an improvement in production closer to his pre-achilles level, although by that time he will be 31 years old.
I am not saying it won't happen it's possible but to treat it as if it is likely, highly likely or a certainty (I am not sure where you fall in that spectrum) is varying degrees of foolish.
