FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That's a fair point. A big part of that is the dearth of stud young running backs right now.I agree with most of what you posted. Regarding the bolded, I think Patterson has reached that level (well, almost). While a WR11-12 to a WR1 may seem like a lot of room for upside as compared to RB3 to RB1, because there are more WRs taken in the first few rounds than RBs, the upside remaining is closer to RB3 to RB1 than it is to RB12 to RB1 imo.Another great set of rankings. Thanks for posting these.
I'm a bit surprised at the turn this thread has take on Floyd/Patterson. Floyd's "not stellar" WR24 finish last year was mentioned. Doesn't it make sense that a 24 year old WR with a high draft pedigree that has just entered the dawn of his career would be ranked, not insubstantially, higher than his previous year finish? Isn't that part of the reason why Le'Veon Bell is ranked as RB6 despite his RB14 finish? Or why Giovanni Bernard is RB5 despite his RB16 finish, Tyler Eifert is TE6 despite his TE29 finish, Andrew Luck is QB4 despite his QB7 finish, DeAndre Hopkins is WR31 despite his WR51 finish, and so on..
Floyd's 2nd year numbers were extremely similar to those of Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb, two guys who were ranked WR6 and WR9 coming off of those finishes. Yet Floyd, who was drafted earlier than both of them (albeit for reasons beyond talent when being compared to Dez) and put up similar 2nd year numbers with far worse QB play is overrated at WR16? Does not compute.
As far as Patterson goes, I can see his rankings varying a lot from person to person as he's a major boom or bust player and different owners weigh risk vs. potential differently. I would not say people are ranking him as if he's "already arrived" though. If they were he would be WR1 or WR2 right now because, right or wrong, that's where people see his potential if he "arrives". It also seems contradictory to mention WR12 being too high for a guy who has not yet arrived while replacing him in the rankings at WR12 with a guy who literally hasn't arrived in the NFL yet (a rookie). Not that I have a problem with Watkins there, just some nit picking
With Patterson I don't think we've reached a situation like we did with some people ranking Gio in the top 2 or 3 where, even if he lives up to his massive potential, you've basically only broken even on the cost to acquire him. If Patterson is bought at WR12 prices and performs like AJ Green going forward, even if it doesn't start this year, that's still a ton of value gained.
In the DFWC (6 PPR startups just recently finished), Patterson went as the WR11 (on average) at 2.08, 2.06, 2.06, 2.04, 2.10, 2.09. Gio went 1.11, 2.01, 1.10, 2.01, 2.01, 2.04. There is less upside left for Gio (from 2.01 to 1.01), but not a whole lot less than Patterson (from 2.06 to 1.01).
Both are valued appropriately at those ranges imo.
Using FBG dynasty rankings...
RB1 is McCoy, RB3 is Martin, RB11 is Lynch
WR1 is Green, WR11 is Marshall
I agree that the gap between Marshall->Green is probably closer to the gap between Martin->McCoy than it is Lynch->McCoy. Nonetheless, the gap between Marshall->Green is a huge one, especially from a perceived value standpoint. Thus, I think we both agree that there is still a LOT of room for Patterson's value to go up in relation to his current price being near his ceiling.