Concept Coop
Footballguy
You made some good points, but this is pretty silly.
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Buy low, sell high, buy high, sell low (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Dr. Awesome
- Start date
JHuber77
Footballguy
Settle down guy. Your perception is different from mine. What that tells me is that Luck will focus on 1 WR. This week it was Wayne. Next week if Collie comes back, it might be him until he gets hurt again. You can disagree if you like. This always happens on overreaction mondays.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Ah, I was working off 6 points for all touchdown leagues. In 4 for passing td leagues those legs on a qb always have some extra value.
Khy
Footballguy
To say the running game gave him nothing is kind of silly. The entire team had 13 carries. Take away Cam's 5 where he was forced to scamble 8 carries for an entire team? It didn't make any sense... Cam through the ball 33 times, they ran it 8 times. That's just bad coaching. It's not like they were down by 3 TDs or anything. They went down 10 points early and just abandoned the run. It was way to early to do so. They also ran I think 1 or 2 plays in between the tackles? Every other run was a designed bounce out, Tampa is simply to fast for that kind of approach. It was just all bad play calling. Also his "two" goal line carries, one of them wasn't a designed carry, he took the snap went through his progressions quick saw nothing then tried to run it in and failed. Him and the team didn't look good. Sure it's too early to jump the gun and start selling him for Tony Romo but at the same time, if I'm a Cam owner I think I'd work a trade for Matt Ryan despite scoring I think he has the better season.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
How is it silly? Every time they ran the ball, they got nothing. Some of the runs - options plays - counted as sacks, so they don't show up on the stat sheet as attempts. And they did run bewteen the tackles. Again, it didn't work.Whether you want to put that on play calling, the RBs, the defense, etcetera, it hindered what Newton was able to do. It put him in 3rd and long, often. There is no room for error in trading Cam for Ryan. You are betting on Ryan being a top 3 passing QB, and I am not ready to make that bet, yet. Otherwise, just wait for the running numbers to start piling up for Cam and enjoy. Cam has more upside, and is just as safe.EDIT TO ADD: Romo did more, against better competition, save a fluke TD run. Why is Ryan elite, after one good game against the Cheifs?
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Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
I could be wrong but wouldn't a CJ1K owner be giddy if they got someone offering Charles. I would think that would be an instant accept.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sell - Matt Ryan. A good game looks great, based on a fluke TD run. They played the Cheifs, who lost Brandon Carr.
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saintfool
Dead sexy
colston always seems to start the season slowly, fwiw.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You drafted CJ before Chalres, no? One game changes things that much?CJ will play in a better offense, get more carries, including the all important goal line carries. And, as they have shown, the Titans won't put CJ on a pitch count.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Crazy idea. Who would you get? FYI, Ryan is going against the easiest passing schedule in the NFL this year.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Stafford. Newton. Romo +. RG3 +. Ryan + for Brady.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm going to kick the tires on Welker, G Jennings, Nicks, Chris Johnson, and Richardson. Not expecting much though.
No sell high's jump off the page at me, I mean, I drafted these guys so I must've liked them more than others. I wouldn't expect many sell high's to emerge this quickly unless you're playing Russian Roulette with the Redskins backfield. I'm probably going to have to do something with my team that has Vick, Locker, and Fitz at QB though. Hoping I can tread water until Ryan Mathews comes back then flip a RB (Forte, Mathews, LeShoure, Quiz, Dwyer, Ryan Williams) for QB. I think Vick gets better and yesterday was a combo of no preseason, bad gameplan, and a surprisingly strong Browns defense but I don't trust my backup plans right now and you need backup plans when you own Vick.
No sell high's jump off the page at me, I mean, I drafted these guys so I must've liked them more than others. I wouldn't expect many sell high's to emerge this quickly unless you're playing Russian Roulette with the Redskins backfield. I'm probably going to have to do something with my team that has Vick, Locker, and Fitz at QB though. Hoping I can tread water until Ryan Mathews comes back then flip a RB (Forte, Mathews, LeShoure, Quiz, Dwyer, Ryan Williams) for QB. I think Vick gets better and yesterday was a combo of no preseason, bad gameplan, and a surprisingly strong Browns defense but I don't trust my backup plans right now and you need backup plans when you own Vick.
Short Corner
Footballguy
That is all well and good. I don't see how that in any way supports that he is a buy low. If anything he is a sell high. Especially using your ownlogic.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
True. I was basing it on a CJ owner trying to unload him and being happy to get Charles. If its someone trying to buy CJ then I agree with you.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
and Flowers and Hali (not that I agree with your sell high point)
DoubleG
Footballguy
The Chiefs were top 10 vs. the pass last year. And if you "take away that one play" (the TD run) - and make it a TD pass, he still has more fantasy points than every other QB yesterday. I agree with you on most of this thread - but this point makes no sense. If you drafted Ryan to be your QB1 (or even QB2 who IS a QB1) yesterday's performance against a decent team on the road simply confirmed you were right. Selling at this point is just plain silly.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They were top 10 becuase they had 2 of the best corners in the NFL. Carr is now a Cowboy, and Flowers was out, as was their best pass rusher. I would guess, based on the players that actually played, The Cheifs lined up one of the worst set of corners in the league, yesterday. It wasn't a decent team, at all. And if people are willing to trade Stafford or Newton, call me silly, but I'm jumping on that. He had a great game, but unless you think this is the norm - it hasn't been in his first 4 seasons - how is it silly to not consider him elite yet?
I'll gladly give you a slight upgrade elsewhere, if you are willing to treat Ryan, from Brady, as a slight downgrade.
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ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Hakeem Nicks - buy low, it will never be lower
dagwood
Footballguy
Its pretty clear that the OP's definition of "buy low" is a little different than the rest of us.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
My definition of a buy low is buying a player whose current value is lower than his expected production warrants. Pretty sure that's everyone's definition of a buy low.I also believe in sell lows and buy highs. That's an area sharks often seem to ignore. Perhaps that is what you were referring to?
DoubleG
Footballguy
The last two years Ryan's been a top 10 fantasy QB. How is it crazy to expect him to "jump" from QB8 or QB9 to top 5 with a more pass-focussed offense and the development of Julio Jones? Call me crazy, but if you have Ryan and trade him for Stafford (or Cam) - you are basically trading him for a player who has a lesser track record and might end posting similar numbers this season. Do I think it's the norm that he will rush for TDs? Of course not. But there are a few aspects of Ryan's numbers that I do think are the "new" norm:
1) The Falcons want to throw...a lot. Their run to pass ratio in the first half was 1 to 2 (in favor of pass). And they were ahead. That's a major shift from previous seasons. You might look at 31 attempts and 299 yards and think "that's not huge" - but 2/3 of those numbers where by halftime. Ryan only threw 9 times for 96 yards in the second half.
2) Y/Attempt - Ryan's was 9.6 yesterday. His 3 year average coming into 2012 is 6.8. Not only are the Falcon's passing more, they are finally throwing deep more often. That is playing to Ryan's and J. Jones strength.
3) Julio Jones. Last year (Jones' rookie season) Ryan's Y/att went from 6.5 the season before to 7.4 last season. Despite a slight dip in Ryan's completion % his passer rating actually went UP last season. The point being, the presence of Jones started this "trend" even last year under their old offensive system. The combination of Jones' speed and skills in the vertical passing game, Ryan's ability to hit the deep ball and the presense of a dependable alternate deep threat in R. White are all reasons to presume an increase in passing yards and TDs for Ryan.
You can trade Ryan for other QBs - but imho (and many other that have Ryan playing at a very high level this season), you are running the risk of trading a top 5 QB for someone who will/could finish significantly lower.
Yes, I think 300+ yard passing games are easily the "new" norm for Ryan moving forward with their new OC and the development of J. Jones.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
I'm not sure why you presume that who Luck focusses on will change. I think Luck realizes what many who watched the game yesterday do - Fleener and Wayne have the best hands on the team. He trusts them. Why would he suddenly switch to someone else? Sure, next week might be Collie, but it might (and more probably will) be Wayne and Fleener again.There were times in yesterday's game where Wayne was targetted even when he was covered. That tells me that Luck wants to throw to Wayne. It's not a case of "throwing to whoever is open". Luck realizes that Wayne, even at 33, is still a top NFL WR (albiet a little slower than he used to be) in terms of hands.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
The confusion is with Wayne going for 135 yards he appears to be a SELL HIGH, not a buy low. However if you think Wayne's value was criminally low and that this performance only boosts him a bit with Collie coming back, then that makes sense.I don't agree with the above poster that said Luck will lock onto 1 guy. He clearly has trust in Wayne, and with Collie out that left him with one WR that he really trusted (others are inexperienced rookies). If/when Collie comes back I see Wayne's looks going down but certainly not taken away completely and given to Collie.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
-They threw the ball less yesterday than they did last year. -It is not logical to use YPC in such small sample sizes. Especially when you consider competition.-They threw the ball 566 times last season, where is the margin for error? Where is the potential for increased passing attempts? What is it? They threw more than the Packers last season. Do you expect them to join the Lions in attempts/game?-Ryan has as many top 10 finishes as Newton and Stafford, and fewer top 5 seasons than both of them. It does not concern me that Ryan has been in the league longer. -"Top 8 or 9 to top 5" is a bigger jump than it seems. The difference between the top 5 and Ryan last season was huge. For the record, I am a very happy Ryan owner in a $ redraft, and am not actively selling him, nor do I advise anyone to. I will be sending offers to the Stafford, Newton, and Brady owners, however. His numbers, per play, will improve - Julio is legit. But there is a lot that goes into passing numbers - it is not wise to assume he is top 5 yet, in my opinion. If others do, I'll gladly take advantage of that.
Banger
Footballguy
agreed. I targetted him and got him in both my redraft leagues and I won't be selling unless someone offers me something ridiculous.
knickstorm
Footballguy
sell SPiller...not gonna jump on cause jet defenders missed tackles in a blowout game. If Fitzpatrick doesnt get it together teams will just pack the box.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Where is the criticism for Stafford? He had 663 pass attempts last season. Only 6 more than Brees, 52 more than Brady, then the gap starts getting huge. I'm quite worried Stafford won't have as many attempts as last season. I don't think selling Ryan for Stafford is as easy a decision as one may think.
75 points seperated Ryan from the #5 qb (Stafford, 4 per passing td). I can see Ryan improving a bit and Stafford throwing less. I'm not sure how Ryan jumps into the fight for #1 but top 5 seems perfectly reasonable.
I enjoy the debate and it's good to have folks with differing opinions but it's pretty clear you were advocating selling Matt Ryan.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You can write last season's six game strech that easily, however. Everytime the guy has been given the load, he has produced RB1 numbers. I'll gladly buy if people think Jackson is a 3 down back, if and when he returns. The Bills aren't looking out for themselves, if they don't give CJ close to 50% of the work.
bonesman
Footballguy
I had an offer of a 1st for him in a 16 team contract league, where he's basically at a minimum salary for this year and next (5 years is max)... I jumped on it quick.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I have clearly laid out 5+ trades that I would look to make. You decide if that is selling or not, but don't suggest I haven't been consistant on the matter. If people are treating him as top 5, I am looking to trade with said people. Otherwise, I am happy with the QB6-7 production, which is right around where I drafted him.
Banger
Footballguy
you say that YPC can't be used due to small sample size yet in the previous bullet point you say they have fewer passes than last year (same sample size = 1). I'd say the difference is success...if you are successful and make big plays and score TDs you are going to have fewer attempts. Put stats aside for a minute and look how they've built the team, what they've said in the offseason, what they did in the preseason and what they've done game 1 of the regular season. They've built a passing team and they have excellent weapons in place to succeed...whether or not they have more or less attempts this year will depend on the defense and scores of games not whether they are willing to pass the ball. Stats are great but don't let them cloud the bigger picture.....who the heck cares how many throws he had yesterday if he has 3 passing tds, 1 rushing td and throws for 300.
"missed tackles"? no credit to him on that? dude is probably top 3 most elusive rb's in the game. he is as advertised. he's not just some schlub that is emerging out of nowhere - he's a top prospect rb that has lived up to his hype and potential whenever he's been given extended PT. anybody who is down on this guy's talent and productivity capability is a fjax owner in denial.injured or not, fjax's value took a MAJOR hit yesterday. spiller ain't going anywhere, folks.
SSOG
Moderator
I could easily see one game changing things vis a vis Charles. If you liked Charles better than CJ, but you discounted him because you didn't know if he'd be at 100%, and this game convinced you that he was 100%, then it'd make sense to trade Johnson for Charles even if Johnson hadn't messed the bed yesterday.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He had a great game. He is a good QB. He has great weapons. I don't think he is top 5, and when they start playing better teams, I think more of you will agree, as you did 24 hours ago.People are jumping off the Newton and Stafford bandwagons after one game - games in which they both threw for 300+ yards. That is overreacting. I want to take advantage of that where I can. If you treat Matt Ryan as a top 5 QB, there is no margin for error - you had better hit a homerun.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good point.
Banger
Footballguy
There are changes in the top 5/top 10 every year. Prior to last year Stafford and Cam weren't in the top 5 and now they are cemented there? The year before Rivers and Vick finished top 5, prior to that it was Schaub/Favre. I have Stafford in one league and Ryan in 2 and to me I don't see much if any difference between the 2 this year. I like them both a lot but really don't have any clue who will finish ahead. Last year is last year.looking at their schedule who should they fear? they play Den, SD, Car, Was, Oak, Phi, Dal, NO, Ari, TB, NO, Car, NYG, Det and TB. Granted a few of those defenses may turn out to be ok but I certainly don't see a murders row of defenses there by any stretch...in fact I see quite the opposite.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Isn't this true of other qb's? If you treat Matthew Stafford as a top 5 qb you can't afford to miss? Same with Cam? Eli, Rivers, and Brady as well?
That depends on whether or not you drafted him where a top 5 QB would be drafted.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sure, a miss is a miss, in that regard. I am struggling a bit to explain what I meant by that - it's not coming out right when I type it. Essentially, Newton, Brady, and Stafford have done it before - last year, even. By investing so heavily in Ryan, over these guys, you are selling low on the 3, and buying sky high on Ryan. There is no margin for error in that scenario. There was a 75 point difference between the 3 and Ryan last season - that's 3 games. Yet, after one game, we are to be convinced that the gap has been met, if not surpassed?Because of one game against a horrible secondary?
Banger
Footballguy
because you think it's not a one week anomoly....right now I'd be willing to pay a pretty penny for Spiller for instance...I wouldn't get him cheap but I'd be willing to pay for him.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am pretty sure he means:Buy High = Pay market value; production will continue.andSell Low = Cut bait; lack of production will continue. I.E., Buy high on Julio, because he will be the top WR this year; sell low on Mark Ingram, he'll never get steady carries.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Gotcha. I'm not ready to crown him as the new fantasy qb king but I do see reasons for optimism. As banger pointed out a few posts back, the top 5 turns over regularly. I think it's safe to pencil Brady, Brees, and Rodgers in as the top 3. After that? There are quite a few players with the talent to finish top 5 if things broke right. Off the top of my head that includes Stafford, Vick, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Peyton, Eli. It takes a lot of things breaking right. Guys need to stay healthy. Not just the qb themselves but the talent around them. A questionable defense so they're forced to get in shootouts is nice (or a coach who doesn't like to run). An injured or ineffective running game won't hurt. Lastly, they need to have a nice schedule.
The Falcons have talked all off season about becoming a throwing team. They drafted a great receiving prospect last year who had a very promising rookie season. They've thrown a lot in the pre-season. They came out and threw a lot in the season opener. Yes it was against a lousy defense. But guess what? They're going to face a lot more lousy defenses (unless a few teams make huge strides from last season).
Is Matt Ryan going to throw as much as he did last year? Maybe. But I don't see much of a drop off in attempts. I'd be surprised if some of the names above him threw as much as they did last year.
Matt Ryan is by no means a lock for the top 5. Not many guys are. But imo he has as good of a chance as any qb outside the top 3. Everything points to them being a team who prefers to pass. And they face a series of questionable defenses.
It's fine if someone wants to shop him around but there is a HUGE opportunity for him to excel this season. It's true he hasn't done it before but he's also never been in his current situation. Everyone has never done it before. Until they do it. This is Ryan's chance.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
If someone believes Alex Smith is going to have this kind of production every week, now would be a good time to buy him. He'd go for a higher price than he did in the pre-season but it'd come at a lower price than a month from now (no, I'm not advocating Smith as a stud just giving another example).
The Jerk
Footballguy
I have no dog in the Matt Ryan fight, and maybe that's why I'm failing to see the chasm of difference others see between him and Newton and Stafford.
The second half of 2011 showed little difference between the trio, when discounting Week 17 when Ryan only had nine attempts before being pulled.
From the 9th game through the 15th game for the trio, in standard FBG scoring terms,
Stafford had 186.7 points
Newton had 186.1 points
Ryan had 176.7 points
So yes, Ryan was clearly below the other two in production, but the difference was about 1.4 points per game, hardly trivial but not an insurmountable distance.
If you're projecting that Ryan improves even slightly this season, while Stafford regresses due to fewer attempts, and Newton regresses due to fewer rushing TDs, then it's not that difficult to see Ryan as a potential top 5 QB, although others not mentioned like Romo could still factor into that designation.
I'm comfortable with Stafford not dropping off too far, as I expect the weak running game and mediocre defense to again enable him to have a very high number of attempts. One thing I will say is that I disagree with track record only working in Stafford's favor. While football is a brutal game and injuries are unpredictable, Stafford's injury history continues to make him more of a risk in my eyes than Ryan.
I'm much less bullish on Newton being able to repeat, as I don't expect his rushing TDs to approach the 14 from a season ago, and I think he's more likely to have been the target of defensive coordinators offseason study. If you weren't concerned before Week 1, consider that last season in two games against Tampa Bay, Newton averaged 38.65 FBG pts per game, while yesterday he tallied only 16.5. By no means to I expect Cam to struggle like that all season, but it's quite a change from Weeks 13 and 16 of 2011. Don't forget that Newton trended down over each quarter of the season last year:
Games 1-4: 30.4 fpg
Games 5-8: 27.3 fpg
Games 9-12: 26.0 fpg
Games 13-16: 24.1 fpg
I don't own any of the three, but I would likely hold Stafford over Ryan if given the chance, but trade Newton for Ryan if offered. But I felt that way going into the draft. I had Newton and Romo fairly close behind Ryan as my third tier of QBs, with Stafford in his own mini-tier after the Big 3. So really, I haven't changed my opinion based on Week 1. Rather, it slightly solidified my thinking. The one argument I can easily see for trying to trade Ryan for Newton is that Ryan right now has a 22 point lead on Newton for the 2012 season. How likely is it that Ryan ends up 22 points better than Newton for the season? I don't know. It's a push to me, but it might be easier for me to say this without actually having a real trade offer in front of me.
The second half of 2011 showed little difference between the trio, when discounting Week 17 when Ryan only had nine attempts before being pulled.
From the 9th game through the 15th game for the trio, in standard FBG scoring terms,
Stafford had 186.7 points
Newton had 186.1 points
Ryan had 176.7 points
So yes, Ryan was clearly below the other two in production, but the difference was about 1.4 points per game, hardly trivial but not an insurmountable distance.
If you're projecting that Ryan improves even slightly this season, while Stafford regresses due to fewer attempts, and Newton regresses due to fewer rushing TDs, then it's not that difficult to see Ryan as a potential top 5 QB, although others not mentioned like Romo could still factor into that designation.
I'm comfortable with Stafford not dropping off too far, as I expect the weak running game and mediocre defense to again enable him to have a very high number of attempts. One thing I will say is that I disagree with track record only working in Stafford's favor. While football is a brutal game and injuries are unpredictable, Stafford's injury history continues to make him more of a risk in my eyes than Ryan.
I'm much less bullish on Newton being able to repeat, as I don't expect his rushing TDs to approach the 14 from a season ago, and I think he's more likely to have been the target of defensive coordinators offseason study. If you weren't concerned before Week 1, consider that last season in two games against Tampa Bay, Newton averaged 38.65 FBG pts per game, while yesterday he tallied only 16.5. By no means to I expect Cam to struggle like that all season, but it's quite a change from Weeks 13 and 16 of 2011. Don't forget that Newton trended down over each quarter of the season last year:
Games 1-4: 30.4 fpg
Games 5-8: 27.3 fpg
Games 9-12: 26.0 fpg
Games 13-16: 24.1 fpg
I don't own any of the three, but I would likely hold Stafford over Ryan if given the chance, but trade Newton for Ryan if offered. But I felt that way going into the draft. I had Newton and Romo fairly close behind Ryan as my third tier of QBs, with Stafford in his own mini-tier after the Big 3. So really, I haven't changed my opinion based on Week 1. Rather, it slightly solidified my thinking. The one argument I can easily see for trying to trade Ryan for Newton is that Ryan right now has a 22 point lead on Newton for the 2012 season. How likely is it that Ryan ends up 22 points better than Newton for the season? I don't know. It's a push to me, but it might be easier for me to say this without actually having a real trade offer in front of me.
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The Jerk
Footballguy
I should add that I'm comparing the second halves to show that the main reason Stafford and Newton substantially outperformed Ryan last season was due to incredibly torrid starts. Was it the lockout? Was it that teams had never faced Stafford (healthy, that is) and Newton before? Maybe a little of both, but either way, I think it's interesting to compare just the second halves of the seasons given the possibility that the first half of the season had a greater capacity for anomaly than usual.
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Dragon1952
Footballguy
Dynasty - sell high (or higher than before anyway) - I can't believe Frank Gore hasn't been mentioned. I couldn't even get a 2nd rounder for him this past off-season.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
