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Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert? (1 Viewer)

Right now, would you rather have Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert if you're a real NFL Team?

  • Lawrence By A Mile

    Votes: 6 4.9%
  • Lawrence

    Votes: 23 18.7%
  • On The Fence

    Votes: 10 8.1%
  • Herbert

    Votes: 68 55.3%
  • Herbert By A Mile

    Votes: 16 13.0%

  • Total voters
    123

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Good discussion in @EBF's 26 Rookies thread.

Made me think of a question I ask. (I don't THINK I've asked it here yet but :bag:  if I have)

Right now, would you rather have Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert if you're a real NFL Team?

 
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Tough call, but Herbert's shown it at the next level, we know he's good. I think there's very little chance Lawrence is a bust, and think his upside is higher. Went Lawrence but could see it go either way, kind of a win-win no matter who you choose I think. 

 
Herbert is as proven on the NFL field as any player can be after one season. He just had one of the few best rookie seasons in NFL history. There is no guarantee Lawrence will ever play as well as Herbert did in 2020.

Herbert only has one fewer season of cost control than Lawrence, which is a worthy tradeoff IMO.

IMO it is a clear and obvious choice to prefer Herbert today.

 
Give me the guy that has already done it at the NFL level no matter the hype.  I have seen Herbert excel at the NFL level.  I have not seen Lawrence do that.  

 
Herbert has shown at the NFL level, but Lawrence probably has the higher upside. On the fence until I see TL against an NFL defense. 
I am curious about the idea that Lawrence has the higher upside.  Herbert just completed the all time best rookie QB year of all time.  That is all you could hope that Lawerence does and it is likely not going to happen.  

 
I am curious about the idea that Lawrence has the higher upside.  Herbert just completed the all time best rookie QB year of all time.  That is all you could hope that Lawerence does and it is likely not going to happen.  
:goodposting:  

I'd like to hear someone justify the notion that Lawrence has a higher ceiling. I don't see it.

 
Right now, 19% choosing Lawrence, and I'm frankly surprised it's that high. Another thing to consider is, who watched Herbert last year and thought to themselves, "That's probably as good as he's ever gonna get"? Probably no one. Everyone talks about Lawrence's upside, but not Herbert's. 

 
Give me the guy that has already done it at the NFL level no matter the hype.  I have seen


Herbert


excel at the NFL level.  I have not seen


Lawrence


do that.  
100 percent this.

Also, I have no confidence the current regime has a clue on roster construction. The Chargers have some proven weapons who if healthy should make them a top ten offense once again. Jax has been bottom 5 offense, and while we expect that to change, I'm not prepared to say they're going to completely flip the script this year.

 
Best case scenario, Lawrence has a rookie season comparable to Herbert's rookie season, so short of Herbert taking a step backward this season, I suspect those siding with Herbert in this debate are unlikely to move from their position anytime soon.

For me, it is a very close call, but I went with Lawrence.  I have him rated considerably higher as an incoming prospect.  I clearly missed on Herbert, but I still believe Lawrence is the superior prospect.

Both teams will be developing under new coaching staffs this season. Let's analyze both offenses . . . 

The Chargers were previously led by offensive-minded Anthony Lynn, but this season, Brandon Staley (a defensive-minded coach) takes the reigns.  I like that new OC Joe Lombardi has been successful as a QB coach, but his previous stint as an OC does not inspire much confidence.  On a positive note, Herbert has proven he can quickly adapt to a new scheme.

I really like the addition of Rashawn Slater to the Chargers' O-line.  If Bryan Bulaga can put his injury-riddled 2020 season behind him and new additions can quickly gel together, the Chargers' O-line should be vastly improved.  Adding Jared Cook will help alleviate the loss of Hunter Henry in the short-term, but Cook is 34 and slowing down.  Josh Palmer could be a potential replacement for Mike Williams if he defects in 2022, and Keenan Allen remains one of the premiere wideouts in the league.  At RB, Ekeler has not proven durable, and the depth behind him is weak.  The Chargers could benefit from an injection of youth into this offense, but, overall, this is a formidable unit for the foreseeable future.

Urban Meyer will try to duplicate in the NFL the success he had in the college ranks, but the NFL is admittedly a much different game.  One of Meyer's greatest strengths as a college coach (aside from his ability to recruit and motivate) was his ability to generate offensive output with his spread scheme.  OC Darrell Bevell is a veteran NFL coordinator who should help balance the inexperience of Meyer.  I was mildly surprised the Jags selected Etienne in the draft, but this actually fits what we know about Meyer: he likes to lean on a strong ground game.  Still, I believe Bevell is going to be given the green light to put the ball in the air with what could develop into an exciting offense. It is a legitimate concern here that Urban Meyer flames out in the NFL, and Lawrence soon finds himself playing under a new coaching staff, but that same concern exists for Staley in LA.

The Jaguars' O-line was underrated last season; however, they need better play from both tackle spots to protect Lawrence.  DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones form a talented receiving tandem for the Jaguars, and James Robinson and Travis Etienne should be an exciting one-two punch at RB.  This unit is bursting with youth, but there is no dominant Keenan Allen-type of talent for Lawrence to lean on.  Perhaps DJ Chark can eventually be that guy.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Herbert is as proven on the NFL field as any player can be after one season. He just had one of the few best rookie seasons in NFL history. There is no guarantee Lawrence will ever play as well as Herbert did in 2020.

Herbert only has one fewer season of cost control than Lawrence, which is a worthy tradeoff IMO.

IMO it is a clear and obvious choice to prefer Herbert today.
This plus he is in a much better situation. Chargers line is dramatically improved. 

 
I'll go against the crowd and say Lawrence by a bit (and not just because I hate Herbert).

I totally get and don't disagree with everyone saying to take the proven thing, but for a team like the Jags, I think I'd rather have the upside.  If you're a team that can compete for a title in the next few years like the Chargers, then sure Herbert.  But if I'm starting a franchise from the ground up, I might just take a swing at the guy who is more likely to be a HOF'er one day.

 
I'll go against the crowd and say Lawrence by a bit (and not just because I hate Herbert).

I totally get and don't disagree with everyone saying to take the proven thing, but for a team like the Jags, I think I'd rather have the upside.  If you're a team that can compete for a title in the next few years like the Chargers, then sure Herbert.  But if I'm starting a franchise from the ground up, I might just take a swing at the guy who is more likely to be a HOF'er one day.
Isn't the upside what Herbert has already done in the NFL?  He set rookie records for TD's and was first or second in yards and completions.  There isn't much upside above that that I can see.  

I am just confused by the "upside" argument as it seems Herbert is already at that upside.  

 
Isn't the upside what Herbert has already done in the NFL?  He set rookie records for TD's and was first or second in yards and completions.  There isn't much upside above that that I can see.  

I am just confused by the "upside" argument as it seems Herbert is already at that upside.  
Rookie records are going to continue to get broken as the league becomes more and more pass heavy.  When you're constantly losing games and on a very bad team, you're going to throw the ball a lot and rack up stats.

He went 5-9 as a starter this year (not including the scrimmage against KC's entire 2nd unit).  His only wins were vs the Broncos, Raiders, Falcons, Jags, and Jets.  (the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 17th worst teams in the NFL last year- Combined records of 20-60)

I'm not saying he isn't good and hasn't been impressive.  But if this is his ceiling, then I'd take Lawrence who has a ceiling of being a Manning/Elway type player.

 
Let me ask this....

Pretend Burrow didn't get injured.  If they re-do the draft, do you think Cinci takes Burrow or Herbert #1?

 
The Chargers were previously led by offensive-minded Anthony Lynn, but this season, Brandon Staley (a defensive-minded coach) takes the reigns.  I like that new OC Joe Lombardi has been successful as a QB coach, but his previous stint as an OC does not inspire much confidence.  On a positive note, Herbert has proven he can quickly adapt to a new scheme.
With all due respect to Anthony Lynn, before the Chargers, he coordinated the Bills with Tyrod Taylor, which was an extremely run heavy offense.

The new Chargers  coaching staff has offensive influences from Sean Payton, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan. Those are excellent offensive minds. Combine that with the fact that the Chargers have a strong set of skill position talent, plus the season Herbert had last season, and I don't see any reason to expect the Chargers passing offense to regress.

As for Lombardi's previous stint as OC, first off, that was in 2014-15. Second, it is known that Jim Caldwell would not allow Lombardi to implement the offense he brought with him from the Saints, so that stint was not necessarily indicative of his ability as an OC.

If anything, the Chargers are currently relatively weak at pass rush, interior defensive line, and in the secondary. It is very possible they will need to put up a lot of points to win games in the foreseeable future.

 
Let me ask this....

Pretend Burrow didn't get injured.  If they re-do the draft, do you think Cinci takes Burrow or Herbert #1?
A better question is if we redrafted all players today and both Burrow and Herbert were available knowing what we have seen so far, which of them would teams other than the Bengals and Chargers (who are obviously invested in their previous choices) draft? IMO it would overwhelmingly skew toward Herbert.

 
Rookie records are going to continue to get broken as the league becomes more and more pass heavy.  When you're constantly losing games and on a very bad team, you're going to throw the ball a lot and rack up stats.

He went 5-9 as a starter this year (not including the scrimmage against KC's entire 2nd unit).  His only wins were vs the Broncos, Raiders, Falcons, Jags, and Jets.  (the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 17th worst teams in the NFL last year- Combined records of 20-60)

I'm not saying he isn't good and hasn't been impressive.  But if this is his ceiling, then I'd take Lawrence who has a ceiling of being a Manning/Elway type player.
First, I would point out that he had that record season in 15 games, since he did not play in week 1.

Beyond that, you are ignoring that he played for an incompetent coaching staff. He played well enough (and the offense played well enough) to win more games last season. The Chargers lost 7 one possession games, including 2 OT losses. There is a reason why Anthony Lynn was fired... the coaching staff held this team back. There is really no disputing that if you care to look at the facts.

Yiour ceiling comment (bolded) is unjustifiable. If you think it is justifiable, please provide that justification.

 
First, I would point out that he had that record season in 15 games, since he did not play in week 1.

Beyond that, you are ignoring that he played for an incompetent coaching staff. He played well enough (and the offense played well enough) to win more games last season. The Chargers lost 7 one possession games, including 2 OT losses. There is a reason why Anthony Lynn was fired... the coaching staff held this team back. There is really no disputing that if you care to look at the facts.

Yiour ceiling comment (bolded) is unjustifiable. If you think it is justifiable, please provide that justification.
Lawrence was much higher regarded coming out of school. A once in a generation type player. So I believe his ceiling is much higher down the road. I think the odds of TL making the HOF are higher than Herbert's.  You don't. That's fine. 

Yes he did it over 15 games, in games he was losing and needed to throw a lot. Also one of those 15 games was against a KC B team. His numbers are inflated due to competition, being down, lack of running game (injured ekeler), etc. 

He had 1 win last year vs a team that wasn't extremely bad. Again, I'm not saying he's not a great qb... I'm saying I would take TL over him.  I think TL is a better quarterback then him in 3 years. You don't, thats fine. 

 
Rookie records are going to continue to get broken as the league becomes more and more pass heavy.  When you're constantly losing games and on a very bad team, you're going to throw the ball a lot and rack up stats.

He went 5-9 as a starter this year (not including the scrimmage against KC's entire 2nd unit).  His only wins were vs the Broncos, Raiders, Falcons, Jags, and Jets.  (the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 17th worst teams in the NFL last year- Combined records of 20-60)

I'm not saying he isn't good and hasn't been impressive.  But if this is his ceiling, then I'd take Lawrence who has a ceiling of being a Manning/Elway type player.
Many of the records he broke were set several years ago, some of them have never been accomplished before.

Lol at "on a very bad team"- they were 7-9, it's not like they were, I don't know, the Eagles.

If you want to get specific, in his first career start (with little notice and essentially zero pre-season due to covid) he had the lead against KC with under 2:30 left in the game, lost on a 58 yd. FG in OT. Had a better passer rating than Mahomes in that game as well. Also has the lead into the 4th qtr. against the Bucs a few weeks later. Also had the lead on the road against the Saints, defense gave up a TD with under a minute left and he drove them down in 47 seconds but his kicker hit the upright on a 50 yd. FG, they lost in OT. Lost against the Broncos when his defense gave up a TD on the last play of the game after a PI call on 4th down, had the lead almost the entire game. Football is a team game, after all.

Zero reason to think anyone's rookie season is their ceiling.

Lawrence was much higher regarded coming out of school. A once in a generation type player. So I believe his ceiling is much higher down the road. I think the odds of TL making the HOF are higher than Herbert's.  You don't. That's fine. 

Yes he did it over 15 games, in games he was losing and needed to throw a lot. Also one of those 15 games was against a KC B team. His numbers are inflated due to competition, being down, lack of running game (injured ekeler), etc. 

He had 1 win last year vs a team that wasn't extremely bad. Again, I'm not saying he's not a great qb... I'm saying I would take TL over him.  I think TL is a better quarterback then him in 3 years. You don't, thats fine. 
See above. TL may end up being better, but no reason to sell Herbert short. Easily the best rookie QB season in NFL history, in the conversation for best rookie season for any player ever. All despite terrible coaching, an even worse O-line, and the most screwed up off-season/least preparation ever. He very likely won't reach it, but his ceiling is the GOAT.

 
Many of the records he broke were set several years ago, some of them have never been accomplished before.

Lol at "on a very bad team"- they were 7-9, it's not like they were, I don't know, the Eagles.

If you want to get specific, in his first career start (with little notice and essentially zero pre-season due to covid) he had the lead against KC with under 2:30 left in the game, lost on a 58 yd. FG in OT. Had a better passer rating than Mahomes in that game as well. Also has the lead into the 4th qtr. against the Bucs a few weeks later. Also had the lead on the road against the Saints, defense gave up a TD with under a minute left and he drove them down in 47 seconds but his kicker hit the upright on a 50 yd. FG, they lost in OT. Lost against the Broncos when his defense gave up a TD on the last play of the game after a PI call on 4th down, had the lead almost the entire game. Football is a team game, after all.

Zero reason to think anyone's rookie season is their ceiling.

See above. TL may end up being better, but no reason to sell Herbert short. Easily the best rookie QB season in NFL history, in the conversation for best rookie season for any player ever. All despite terrible coaching, an even worse O-line, and the most screwed up off-season/least preparation ever. He very likely won't reach it, but his ceiling is the GOAT.
I never understood this jabbing at another team.  I never said the Eagles were good.  The Chargers were better than the Eagles.  Just because I cheer for a bad team, it does not mean I cannot comment that another team is also bad.  As for the 7-9 record, 1 of those wins he didn't even play.  Another was against the Chiefs B team as the rested everyone.  So yes, The Chargers under Herbert went 5-9, and 4 of those wins were against teams that won 5 or less games.  Herbert didn't beat one above average team last year.

I never said Herbert's rookie season was bad.  In fact, I think it was very good.  I never said anything contrary to that.  To say he had the best rookie season of any player ever is extreme exaggeration.  I voted "barely TL"... it's not like I think Herbert wasn't fantastic last year.  But I do think his stats were slightly inflated by being on a bad team with no running game, who was almost always behind in games.

LOL @ "His ceiling is the GOAT" 🤣

 
I agree with most and say Herbert until Lawrence shows he’s got the goods at the NFL level.

I get that Lawrence is supposed to be a generational talent, but just because the pundits say it, it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen (Captain Obvious). If they got it right, Herbert wouldn’t have dropped to where he was drafted.

 
I never understood this jabbing at another team.  I never said the Eagles were good.  The Chargers were better than the Eagles.  Just because I cheer for a bad team, it does not mean I cannot comment that another team is also bad.  As for the 7-9 record, 1 of those wins he didn't even play.  Another was against the Chiefs B team as the rested everyone.  So yes, The Chargers under Herbert went 5-9, and 4 of those wins were against teams that won 5 or less games.  Herbert didn't beat one above average team last year.

I never said Herbert's rookie season was bad.  In fact, I think it was very good.  I never said anything contrary to that.  To say he had the best rookie season of any player ever is extreme exaggeration.  I voted "barely TL"... it's not like I think Herbert wasn't fantastic last year.  But I do think his stats were slightly inflated by being on a bad team with no running game, who was almost always behind in games.

LOL @ "His ceiling is the GOAT" 🤣
You didn't call them bad, you called them "very bad". They weren't a very bad team.

Likewise, I didn't say that you called his rookie season bad, I said you were selling it short. It was historically good, yet you're trying to poke holes in it while ignoring several things I listed that make it even more impressive IMO.

Yet again, I didn't say he had the best rookie season of any player ever, I said it was in the conversation.

Not sure what to tell you, but your assertion that they had no running game and he was almost always behind in games is simply incorrect.

Yes, when the first time you step onto an NFL field you have the best rookie season any player at your position has ever had, why wouldn't his ceiling be as high as any other player at their position? He's had the best start, the potential is there to have the best overall career. Before you go misquoting me again, I said he very likely won't reach it, simply because most players don't, but his ceiling is sky high.

 
You didn't call them bad, you called them "very bad". They weren't a very bad team.

Likewise, I didn't say that you called his rookie season bad, I said you were selling it short. It was historically good, yet you're trying to poke holes in it while ignoring several things I listed that make it even more impressive IMO.

Yet again, I didn't say he had the best rookie season of any player ever, I said it was in the conversation.

Not sure what to tell you, but your assertion that they had no running game and he was almost always behind in games is simply incorrect.

Yes, when the first time you step onto an NFL field you have the best rookie season any player at your position has ever had, why wouldn't his ceiling be as high as any other player at their position? He's had the best start, the potential is there to have the best overall career. Before you go misquoting me again, I said he very likely won't reach it, simply because most players don't, but his ceiling is sky high.
Ok well I think a team that had 0 wins against wInning teams isn't good.  I'm sorry the " very" word upset you so much. Maybe I shoulda just said "sorta bad" ?  

I do think they will be better this year. A (hopefully) healthy ekeler will give them some more wins but also limit Herbert's stats. Being up in more games this year will also limit his stats. They're also due for some positive win regression due to losing some close games. And their defense looks improved which also should keep them out of some shootouts. 

Herbert looked good last year, I didnt once deny that. I'm just saying to pump the brakes on the Goat talk and the "greatest rookie season ever" talk, as I personally believe (it's fine if you don't) that his stats were inflated due to the team being bad and missing their stud rb. A lot of qbs have great rookie years and fall off a bit once teams have some more tape on them too. Not saying he won't be a great qb, but I'm not convinced he's a once in a generation type talent like Lawrence could be. Again, my opinion. 

I'm assuming since you think his numbers will be on par or better this year than last year, that you're predicting a pro bowl for Herbert this year? 

 
Ok well I think a team that had 0 wins against wInning teams isn't good.  I'm sorry the " very" word upset you so much. Maybe I shoulda just said "sorta bad" ?  

I do think they will be better this year. A (hopefully) healthy ekeler will give them some more wins but also limit Herbert's stats. Being up in more games this year will also limit his stats. They're also due for some positive win regression due to losing some close games. And their defense looks improved which also should keep them out of some shootouts. 

Herbert looked good last year, I didnt once deny that. I'm just saying to pump the brakes on the Goat talk and the "greatest rookie season ever" talk, as I personally believe (it's fine if you don't) that his stats were inflated due to the team being bad and missing their stud rb. A lot of qbs have great rookie years and fall off a bit once teams have some more tape on them too. Not saying he won't be a great qb, but I'm not convinced he's a once in a generation type talent like Lawrence could be. Again, my opinion. 

I'm assuming since you think his numbers will be on par or better this year than last year, that you're predicting a pro bowl for Herbert this year? 
There's a lot of room on the spectrum between very bad and very good. Yes, calling them "very bad" seems way over the top, I think even bad is a bit harsh but wouldn't quibble- personally I'd say they were a mediocre team, held back by a terrible coach.

Not sure why you think their defense looks improved, it's their O-line that took a huge leap (on paper at least).

I honestly don't think you're paying very close attention- you said they had "no" running game when they were a little below average, and say they were always trailing when that wasn't even close to reality. You keep taking pot shots about the teams he beat, but he had them leading for almost the entire game against KC, TB, and NO (2 of those on the road), 3 of the best teams in the NFL, and he played great in them. It's not like he's racking up garbage time stats against scrub teams like you're implying.

Pro bowls are pretty much meaningless, and I'm not necessarily making predictions about next year or the rest of his career as anything can happen. I just think you're way off base on how impressive his rookie season was and the circumstances around it, and his ceiling is as high as just about anyone's because he was so good last year under less than ideal circumstances. Anything can happen with injuries, new coaching staff, etc., but yes, I'm very high on him.

 
There's a lot of room on the spectrum between very bad and very good. Yes, calling them "very bad" seems way over the top, I think even bad is a bit harsh but wouldn't quibble- personally I'd say they were a mediocre team, held back by a terrible coach.

Not sure why you think their defense looks improved, it's their O-line that took a huge leap (on paper at least).

I honestly don't think you're paying very close attention- you said they had "no" running game when they were a little below average, and say they were always trailing when that wasn't even close to reality. You keep taking pot shots about the teams he beat, but he had them leading for almost the entire game against KC, TB, and NO (2 of those on the road), 3 of the best teams in the NFL, and he played great in them. It's not like he's racking up garbage time stats against scrub teams like you're implying.

Pro bowls are pretty much meaningless, and I'm not necessarily making predictions about next year or the rest of his career as anything can happen. I just think you're way off base on how impressive his rookie season was and the circumstances around it, and his ceiling is as high as just about anyone's because he was so good last year under less than ideal circumstances. Anything can happen with injuries, new coaching staff, etc., but yes, I'm very high on him.
Personally I think a team that has 6 wins (4 of them against bottom 8 teams, 1 against a practice squad, and 1 against an average raiders team) is bad.  But hey, we can disagree on that.

I think Samuel is a stud and will very much help your DB's.  Also IIRC (and you probably know this better than I do), they had a lot of defensive injuries last year.  The addition of Samuel, a healthier defense, and using the RB's a lot more (due to game script of having more leads, as well as having a better OL, as well as Ekeler being healthy), all cap Herbert's numbers from increasing by much.

When did I say his rookie season wasn't impressive?!  For the 10th time, HERBERT'S ROOKIE SEASON WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE.  I don't believe he has a higher realistic ceiling than Lawrence.  Will he be a better pro?  Possible.  If I was starting a franchise from scratch, I would take Lawrence.  I'm very sorry you don't agree with me.

 
I'm not necessarily making predictions about next year or the rest of his career
You are though. 

Anyways let's make a fun bet just to make it exciting for us.  I say Herbert's Passing Yards Per Game DECREASE this year. 

 
Personally I think a team that has 6 wins (4 of them against bottom 8 teams, 1 against a practice squad, and 1 against an average raiders team) is bad.  But hey, we can disagree on that.

I think Samuel is a stud and will very much help your DB's.  Also IIRC (and you probably know this better than I do), they had a lot of defensive injuries last year.  The addition of Samuel, a healthier defense, and using the RB's a lot more (due to game script of having more leads, as well as having a better OL, as well as Ekeler being healthy), all cap Herbert's numbers from increasing by much.

When did I say his rookie season wasn't impressive?!  For the 10th time, HERBERT'S ROOKIE SEASON WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE.  I don't believe he has a higher realistic ceiling than Lawrence.  Will he be a better pro?  Possible.  If I was starting a franchise from scratch, I would take Lawrence.  I'm very sorry you don't agree with me.
So still not acknowledging that he was beating 3 of the very best teams in the NFL for almost the entire games? Just want to focus on Jax do you?

You sure love your straw men- where did I say you said his rookie season wasn't impressive? You keep coming up with reasons to try and caveat his season (like they had no running game and were always trailing, both of which are completely incorrect), and it was more than impressive or even very impressive, it was historically great. When a rookie has a historically great year, logic says his ceiling is incredibly high.

Again, nothing to do with TL, go ahead and "pick" him if you'd like. My issue with you this entire time is your take on just how good Herbert's year was last year (and the incorrect arguments you're using to try and validate that).

You are though. 

Anyways let's make a fun bet just to make it exciting for us.  I say Herbert's Passing Yards Per Game DECREASE this year. 
No, I'm not. Again, this is about last season, which was historically great. Next year may not be better due to injuries, new coach/system, or any number of factors. I do expect him to improve, but nothing is guaranteed. That doesn't change how good last year was.

You don't seem interested in addressing what is actually being said so I'll bow out and let you have the last word.

 
I would go Herbert because we've seen what he can do behind a line that gave him no time to throw. I wish I kept my Twitter feed for cool stats handy, but he was under pressure so much last year and managed to do so much with such little time.

He had one of the best rookie seasons ever behind a porous line.

Let's discuss physical attributes, too. Herbert is around 6'6", just like Lawrence, maybe a little heavier. He can run when he needs to. Guy showed he can process at NFL speed, the biggest thing and jump for a QB.

Lawrence hasn't proven anything yet. I think he will; but right now, he's an unknown. 

Herbert was impressive.

Mark me down for Herbert with what we know now in the clubhouse.

 
So still not acknowledging that he was beating 3 of the very best teams in the NFL for almost the entire games? Just want to focus on Jax do you?

You sure love your straw men- where did I say you said his rookie season wasn't impressive? You keep coming up with reasons to try and caveat his season (like they had no running game and were always trailing, both of which are completely incorrect), and it was more than impressive or even very impressive, it was historically great. When a rookie has a historically great year, logic says his ceiling is incredibly high.

Again, nothing to do with TL, go ahead and "pick" him if you'd like. My issue with you this entire time is your take on just how good Herbert's year was last year (and the incorrect arguments you're using to try and validate that).

No, I'm not. Again, this is about last season, which was historically great. Next year may not be better due to injuries, new coach/system, or any number of factors. I do expect him to improve, but nothing is guaranteed. That doesn't change how good last year was.

You don't seem interested in addressing what is actually being said so I'll bow out and let you have the last word.
"beating" lol.  But still didn't win.

You keep exaggerating his season.  Not once did I say his season wasn't impressive.  I even put it in all caps.  I'm happy to sign and mail you an official letter stating that I think he was very impressive.  Would you believe me then?

Many rookies have had amazing first years and dropped off.  I'm not saying the guy sucks man, it's not all about extremes like you seem to think.  This isn't Herbert is 10/10 vs 0/10.  You think he's 10/10.  My belief (again, I'm allowed to have my opinions on him even though you don't think I should) is that he's 9/10.  And my belief is that Lawrence MIGHT be 10/10 and that Herbert will never be 10/10.

I'm not using incorrect arguments.  He never beat a decent team.  He didn't put a single point up and lost 45-0 against the Patriots.  He was super amazing but not super-duper amazing.   I am addressing everything, but you continue to ignore and have a rebuttable to ANY even SLIGHTLY negative thing about the guy.  I am at least willing to give the guy props when he is good, are you willing to give him faults when he's bad?  Your mind is on one track my man... your fandom is skewing your reality.

I think his numbers decrease this year per game, and you aren't even willing to predict that.  My preference is Lawrence.  Most people's preference is Herbert, but there's still 30 people (many of whom I think are smart) who don't think Herbert is better.  I'm very sorry that bothers you that much.
 

 
Many rookies have had amazing first years and dropped off.
Please name some QBs who had "amazing" first years and then dropped off. Then look at the reasons for the dropoff and find any example that reasonably correlates to Herbert's situation.

 
Please name some QBs who had "amazing" first years and then dropped off. Then look at the reasons for the dropoff and find any example that reasonably correlates to Herbert's situation.
Wentz, RG3, Winston, Mariota, Baker, etc.  I'm not expecting a huge drop-off from Herbert though.  I think he is the real deal and will be a solid starter the rest of his career.  I just don't see him greatly improving on last year's numbers or making the HOF. 

 
Wentz, RG3, Winston, Mariota, Baker, etc.  I'm not expecting a huge drop-off from Herbert though.
We may have different definitions of amazing:

  • Not amazing:

    Winston (2015) - 312/535 (58.3%), 4042 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 22 passing TDs (4.1%), 15 interceptions (2.8%), 84.2 passer rating
  • Wentz (2016) - 379/607 (62.4%), 3782 passing yards (6.2 YPA), 16 passing TDs (2.6%), 14 Interceptions (2.3%), 79.3 passer rating

[*]Efficient, but with luxury of low volume:

  • RG3 (2012) - 258/393 (65.6%), 3200 passing yards (8.1 YPA), 20 passing TDs (5.1%), 5 interceptions (1.3%), 102.4 passer rating
  • Mariota (2015) - 230/370 (62.2%), 2818 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 19 passing TDs (5.1%), 10 interceptions (2.7%), 91.5 passer rating

[*]Good, but not Herbert-level good:

  • Mayfield (2018) - 310/486 (63.8%), 3725 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 27 passing TDs (5.6%), 14 interceptions (2.9%), 93.7 passer rating

[*]Herbert-level good:

  • Herbert (2020) - 396/595 (66.6%), 4336 passing yards (7.3 YPA), 31 passing TDs (5.2%), 10 interceptions (1.7%), 98.3 passer rating

Now, which of these players do you feel are similar to Herbert in ways that matter? I think it's pretty obvious that none of these guys are particularly comparable to Herbert in terms of the pros and cons of their games. But you must feel that way in order to cite them as comps for Herbert.

 
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I just don't see him greatly improving on last year's numbers or making the HOF. 
I believe you are the only person in this thread who has addressed Herbert making the HOF. It's a strawman you seem to have created to argue against. So you can drop that from the rest of the discussion.

 
I believe you are the only person in this thread who has addressed Herbert making the HOF. It's a strawman you seem to have created to argue against. So you can drop that from the rest of the discussion.
humpback talked about him possibly becoming the GOAT and having a better career than Brady.  HOF sounds weak compared to that.

I used HOF because I believe that TL has a better shot at the HOF than JH.  I believe that TL has a better shot to be the GOAT than JH.  I believe that TL has a better shot to be a top 3 QB in the league than JH.  Many people agree. 

I think JH had a tremendous first season.  I don't think his numbers jump this year, and actually think they decrease on a per game level because of the many things I've mentioned in this thread.  If you believe his numbers will increase next year, then let's wait and find out.  I would personally take TL over him, but it is close.  I'm not bashing the guy's rookie season by any means, or saying he isn't or won't be a great QB.  I just think TL has a better shot to be the better QB between the two, and if I'm starting a franchise from the ground up, I pick him.

 
We may have different definitions of amazing:

  • Efficient, but with luxury of low volume:

    RG3 (2012) - 258/393 (65.6%), 3200 passing yards (8.1 YPA), 20 passing TDs (5.1%), 5 interceptions (1.3%), 102.4 passer rating
  • Mariota (2015) - 230/370 (62.2%), 2818 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 19 passing TDs (5.1%), 10 interceptions (2.7%), 91.5 passer rating

[*]Not amazing:

  • Winston (2015) - 312/535 (58.3%), 4042 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 22 passing TDs (4.1%), 15 interceptions (2.8%), 84.2 passer rating
  • Wentz (2016) - 379/607 (62.4%), 3782 passing yards (6.2 YPA), 16 passing TDs (2.6%), 14 Interceptions (2.3%), 79.3 passer rating

[*]Good, but not Herbert-level good:

  • Mayfield (2018) - 310/486 (63.8%), 3725 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 27 passing TDs (5.6%), 14 interceptions (2.9%), 93.7 passer rating

[*]Herbert-level good:

  • Herbert (2020) - 396/595 (66.6%), 4336 passing yards (7.3 YPA), 31 passing TDs (5.2%), 10 interceptions (1.7%), 98.3 passer rating

Now, which of these players do you feel are similar to Herbert in ways that matter? I think it's pretty obvious that none of these guys are particularly comparable to Herbert in terms of the pros and cons of their games. But you must feel that way in order to cite them as comps for Herbert.
Nah, I was just brainstorming names.  And I never ever said he would drop off... i said he COULD.   Talk about Straw man arguments 🙄

I apologize for you being offended or upset that I prefer TL to JH.  It won't happen again sir.

 
Herbert. Because he is big strong and has done it to prove it. Lawrence may become better. But he has a lot to prove. 

 
"beating" lol.  But still didn't win.

You keep exaggerating his season.  Not once did I say his season wasn't impressive.  I even put it in all caps.  I'm happy to sign and mail you an official letter stating that I think he was very impressive.  Would you believe me then?

Many rookies have had amazing first years and dropped off.  I'm not saying the guy sucks man, it's not all about extremes like you seem to think.  This isn't Herbert is 10/10 vs 0/10.  You think he's 10/10.  My belief (again, I'm allowed to have my opinions on him even though you don't think I should) is that he's 9/10.  And my belief is that Lawrence MIGHT be 10/10 and that Herbert will never be 10/10.

I'm not using incorrect arguments.  He never beat a decent team.  He didn't put a single point up and lost 45-0 against the Patriots.  He was super amazing but not super-duper amazing.   I am addressing everything, but you continue to ignore and have a rebuttable to ANY even SLIGHTLY negative thing about the guy.  I am at least willing to give the guy props when he is good, are you willing to give him faults when he's bad?  Your mind is on one track my man... your fandom is skewing your reality.

I think his numbers decrease this year per game, and you aren't even willing to predict that.  My preference is Lawrence.  Most people's preference is Herbert, but there's still 30 people (many of whom I think are smart) who don't think Herbert is better.  I'm very sorry that bothers you that much.
 
Yes, beating. As in, they were winning the vast majority of all of those games against great teams, which completely disproves your false notion that "they were always losing", which inflated his stats. Just like the incorrect argument that they had no running game. I'm honestly not sure you've watched a single game of his, and it doesn't appear as you've looked at the data/box scores either because your "arguments" are very clearly incorrect.

humpback talked about him possibly becoming the GOAT and having a better career than Brady.  HOF sounds weak compared to that.

I used HOF because I believe that TL has a better shot at the HOF than JH.  I believe that TL has a better shot to be the GOAT than JH.  I believe that TL has a better shot to be a top 3 QB in the league than JH.  Many people agree. 

I think JH had a tremendous first season.  I don't think his numbers jump this year, and actually think they decrease on a per game level because of the many things I've mentioned in this thread.  If you believe his numbers will increase next year, then let's wait and find out.  I would personally take TL over him, but it is close.  I'm not bashing the guy's rookie season by any means, or saying he isn't or won't be a great QB.  I just think TL has a better shot to be the better QB between the two, and if I'm starting a franchise from the ground up, I pick him.
No, humpback said that his CEILING is GOAT, which is entirely logical considering his rookie season was arguably the GOAT. I also clearly said more than once that he very likely won't reach that ceiling. 

Why do you insist on twisting words around completely? They're right there in black and white.

 
And I never ever said he would drop off... i said he COULD.   Talk about Straw man arguments 🙄
I didn't say you said he would drop off in the post you quoted. You are slipping here. I have to give you credit for a nice trolling job in this thread, though. Kudos!

 
I didn't say you said he would drop off in the post you quoted. You are slipping here. I have to give you credit for a nice trolling job in this thread, though. Kudos!
I'm trolling because I said that Herbert is a great play, had a great season, and would continue to be a great qb for your team?  

You seem really angry man. My point is that he is amazing, but I think Lawrence has the chance to be super amazing. I also see his passing stats per game to decrease this year. 

Jeez, are all 71 Chargers fan this pompous? 

 
Yes, beating. As in, they were winning the vast majority of all of those games against great teams, which completely disproves your false notion that "they were always losing", which inflated his stats. Just like the incorrect argument that they had no running game. I'm honestly not sure you've watched a single game of his, and it doesn't appear as you've looked at the data/box scores either because your "arguments" are very clearly incorrect.

No, humpback said that his CEILING is GOAT, which is entirely logical considering his rookie season was arguably the GOAT. I also clearly said more than once that he very likely won't reach that ceiling. 

Why do you insist on twisting words around completely? They're right there in black and white.
Didn't you say you were going to stop replying?  And did you just refer to yourself in the 3rd person?

 

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