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Pick-a-Player: Adams, Mixon, or Hill (1 Viewer)

Given the scenario below, who would you select?

  • Davante Adams

    Votes: 38 35.2%

  • Joe Mixon

    Votes: 37 34.3%

  • Tyreek Hill

    Votes: 30 27.8%

  • None of these three

    Votes: 3 2.8%
  • Total voters
    108
Clayton Gray

Clayton Gray

Just call me Carlton
Staff member
It is time to make another decision in the Pick-a-Player series. Every couple of days, we'll give you a situation and ask you to pick one of three players.

A few days later, the results will be published on the Footballguys website along with select comments from this thread.

So, let's get to it

It's the 1.08 pick in 12-team, PPR draft. The top four running backs are off the board as are Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, and Derrick Henry. Would you select Davante Adams, Joe Mixon, or Tyreek Hill? Or would you pass on all three?

 
I'd take Adams. Plenty of targets, no competition, and still Rodgers throwing the ball (even if his deep accuracy has deteriorated some according to stats). I love Hill, but he won't see Adams's volume, and Mixon, while great at the end of last year, strikes me as someone who finishes up just behind Adams due to the PPR nature of the format (even with him catching balls out of the backfield on checkdowns and designed plays). 

Also, Aaron Jones (even though FreeBaGel loves to debunk this) is likely due for touchdown regression, so some of those might just go to Adams. 

This also depends on number of starters and scarcity. For scarcity's sake, I might pick Mixon at RB. 

 
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I lean Adams but Mixon being a RB makes it a real tough choice because it could be dicey for RBs by the time you come back up in the 2nd.  And honestly, Hill probably has the highest ceiling just being the top threat with Mahomes. It is a real tough call and I don't envy drafters in that spot. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
It is a real tough call and I don't envy drafters in that spot. 
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Agreed, do not want that draft position, would rather be earlier or later. I would want to take Adams, but doing that likely means my first RB would be outside the top 10 drafted. So I would reluctantly take Mixon.

 
Mixon for positional scarcity

Then Hill

Then Adams

I want no part of the Packers offense if I can help it. Their fraud 13-3 record is about to get hit by the regression bus

 
KChusker said:
Mixon for positional scarcity

Then Hill

Then Adams

I want no part of the Packers offense if I can help it. Their fraud 13-3 record is about to get hit by the regression bus
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I want no part of the Bengals offense if I can help it.  Not very good recently to begin with, and now you've got a rookie QB and no offseason.

 
davearm said:
I want no part of the Bengals offense if I can help it.  Not very good recently to begin with, and now you've got a rookie QB and no offseason.
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Bengals offense was already the worst it could possibly be last season, and in the second half they figured out they need to feed Mixon and he was RB5 over the last 8 games

Now get a 1st round OL back and a blue chip QB known to target RBs in the passing game--after the last half season of scheming more touches for him

I'll take Mixon this season over any RB except Barkley, CMC and maybe Zeke--bit of a hot take but I have been targeting him everywhere

Packers at this point are fantasy cancer to me---both Lafleur and Rodgers--and have only a downward trajectory coming

I''ll buy in on that team when I see Love look decent enough to run a team. Until then I'll take Adams below a stud RB due for volume in an ascending offense and a generational game breaker with the future GOAT at QB and a HOF coach

 
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@Clayton Gray I wonder if having the poll option be for other instead of none of these 3 might be better?

I appreciate you narrowing things down to who you think the top 3 options may be, but at this juncture of the draft I think there are a lot more options that people will be considering.

According to this ADP Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb are being selected before Joe Mixon at RB and honestly despite the changes at QB for the Chargers, Austin Ekeler was the 4th highest scoring RB in PPR formats last year while splitting time with Gordon. From a VBD perspective Ekeler provided 50% more VBD than Mixon did last season. I think he at least deserves consideration as well. From WR you have Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thioelen, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and others who I consider similar tier as Adams or Hill.

As people have said it is a tough spot to be drafting in, as I think the top tier of players are gone and this 2nd tier of players lasts until round 3.

I will vote for Hill here because he has the best QB and has the most upside in my view.If I pro rate for missed games I see Hill has having 80 very high quality receptions and I think he provides the most VBD advantage of the options available, although Kelce and Kittle are other players I could make an argument for from a VBD angle.

I think Mixon is a great choice and I agree he could have his best season yet in 2020 if the supporting cast around him falls into place. He still hasn't had over 1500 combined yards yet in his career though (I think he passes this threshold in 2020) a lot of RB are capable of doing that if healthy.

 
1.08 is a real tough spot to draft in a 12 teamer. 

Taking Mixon gives you a solid RB to start, but after the top 5 WRs are gone (my WR5 is Hopkins), there is tier break to the Godwin/Evans/Golladay/Cooper/Moore/ODB/Robinson tier.   So this leaves me taking a 2nd tier RB along with a 2nd tier WR.  Don't like that.

However, taking a WR leaves you wondering which RBs will be there at 2.5.  Mixon, Chubb will never make it to 2.5, Jacobs likely won't, and a chance that Drake won't either.  So you're looking at a Miles Sanders/Austin Ekeler /Aaron Jones at RB.

I will go with the elite WR-  Adams and take the best RB left in round 2.  I would be ecstatic if Jacobs slipped to 2.5, but I can settle with Drake or Sanders.

 
fightingillini said:
Taking Mixon gives you a solid RB to start, but after the top 5 WRs are gone (my WR5 is Hopkins), there is tier break to the Godwin/Evans/Golladay/Cooper/Moore/ODB/Robinson tier.   So this leaves me taking a 2nd tier RB along with a 2nd tier WR.  Don't like that.
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Why is ODB here? is this really the consensus, because if so, I disagree.

 
rockaction said:
Why is ODB here? is this really the consensus, because if so, I disagree.
Click to expand...
I don't think this is the consensus.  I have routinely gotten OBJ in the 3rd round in startups drafting from late position (10 or later).

Actually in the latest one I got Julio at 10 and Mixon fell to 2.03 (15th overall) for my selection.  Adams went 9th and Hill fell to 18th overall.  Just for reference.

 
Biabreakable said:
@Clayton Gray I wonder if having the poll option be for other instead of none of these 3 might be better?

I appreciate you narrowing things down to who you think the top 3 options may be, but at this juncture of the draft I think there are a lot more options that people will be considering.

According to this ADP Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb are being selected before Joe Mixon at RB and honestly despite the changes at QB for the Chargers, Austin Ekeler was the 4th highest scoring RB in PPR formats last year while splitting time with Gordon. From a VBD perspective Ekeler provided 50% more VBD than Mixon did last season. I think he at least deserves consideration as well. From WR you have Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thioelen, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and others who I consider similar tier as Adams or Hill.

As people have said it is a tough spot to be drafting in, as I think the top tier of players are gone and this 2nd tier of players lasts until round 3.

I will vote for Hill here because he has the best QB and has the most upside in my view.If I pro rate for missed games I see Hill has having 80 very high quality receptions and I think he provides the most VBD advantage of the options available, although Kelce and Kittle are other players I could make an argument for from a VBD angle.

I think Mixon is a great choice and I agree he could have his best season yet in 2020 if the supporting cast around him falls into place. He still hasn't had over 1500 combined yards yet in his career though (I think he passes this threshold in 2020) a lot of RB are capable of doing that if healthy.
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I'm not sure there is a difference between "Other" and "None of these three."

 
KChusker said:
Bengals offense was already the worst it could possibly be last season, and in the second half they figured out they need to feed Mixon and he was RB5 over the last 8 games

Now get a 1st round OL back and a blue chip QB known to target RBs in the passing game--after the last half season of scheming more touches for him

I'll take Mixon this season over any RB except Barkley, CMC and maybe Zeke--bit of a hot take but I have been targeting him everywhere

Packers at this point are fantasy cancer to me---both Lafleur and Rodgers--and have only a downward trajectory coming

I''ll buy in on that team when I see Love look decent enough to run a team. Until then I'll take Adams below a stud RB due for volume in an ascending offense and a generational game breaker with the future GOAT at QB and a HOF coach
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No, the Bengals offense was not already "the worst it could possibly be" last season.  The "worst it could possibly be" would look like 2017, when they finished dead last in the NFL in total yards/game, 31st in rushing yards/game, 26th in points/game, and Mixon finished RB32 despite playing 14 games.

That is the floor, not 2019.

And when you're throwing a rookie QB to the wolves with zero offseason to prepare, hovering near the floor wouldn't be much of a surprise IMO.  The Bengals are headed for a rough year.  I'm fading Mixon hard in my drafts.

 
davearm said:
No, the Bengals offense was not already "the worst it could possibly be" last season.  The "worst it could possibly be" would look like 2017, when they finished dead last in the NFL in total yards/game, 31st in rushing yards/game, 26th in points/game, and Mixon finished RB32 despite playing 14 games.

That is the floor, not 2019.

And when you're throwing a rookie QB to the wolves with zero offseason to prepare, hovering near the floor wouldn't be much of a surprise IMO.  The Bengals are headed for a rough year.  I'm fading Mixon hard in my drafts.
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Except Mixon was a rookie in 2017 and not even a full time starter—completely, utterly irrelevant

Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray came in and steadily improved their teams into ascending offenses with a lot of offseason hype after their rookie years.

Burrow is better than Baker and as good as Murray and is coming in with more offensive talent than either of those guys in Boyd, AJG, Mixon and Higgins

Bengals had their rough year—now they are an ascending offense shooting up to 6-7 wins this season (maybe even 8-8), if the year is played

 
These are the three I would be looking at here. I slightly lean Adams here as there isn’t much else in the GB receiving corps for competition (Hill has others to fight) and PPR favors the WR a bit. Standard I’d probably go Mixon and see what came back, but in PPR a decent RB should come back at 2.05. 

 
In general, If Mixon is the last RB I'd take over the WR's not named Michael Thomas in round 1.  After Mixon, it's a string of WR1's before I'm looking at Chubb/Aaron Jones/Sanders/Drake/Jacobs in round 2.  The order changes daily so please don't argue over which 2nd round RB I got wrong haha.

 
In the FBG article, @Jason Wood said:

Mixon is talented, but I worry about the Bengals offense, his contract status, and wouldn't draft him before another handful of running backs are off the board.
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I would love to hear what the concern is over his contract status. Given the rules under the new CBA, he cannot hold out or he fails to accrue a 4th season, which means he is a RFA after the 2020 season rather than a UFA. Does anyone really think any RB is going to do that? That would be worse than Melvin Gordon's foolish holdout last season.

And aside from that, the fines are not waivable and would exceed his 2020 base salary before preseason is over. He has no leverage, so I don't understand the reason for concern. Au contraire, he needs to have a great season to try to maximize the value of his next contract.

But if this concern enables me to get him at good value in redrafts, I'm all for it.

 
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