2020 rookie rankings Post combine pick 1.05 (Closed) (1 Viewer)

The purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2020 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. For the TE premium poll this assumes the scoring format is PPR because that is what these leagues almost always are. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players.

If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll. Also please suggest players not listed that you would vote for soon, even if not on the particular poll that is active.

I populated the lists based on miqws lists

Thanks everyone for voting. Discussion welcome.

Results so far

Standard

1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin

1.02 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia

1.03 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State

1.04 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma

1.05 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama

PPR

1.01 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia

1.02 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin

1.03 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State

1.04 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama

1.05 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma

2 QB leagues

1.01 Joe Burrow QB LSU

1.02 Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama

1.03 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin

1.04 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia

1.05 Justin Herbert QB Oregon

TE Premium

1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin

1.02 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia

1.03 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State

1.04 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma

1.05 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama

Links to previous polls

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

The next poll can be found here

Love it when I can hit the same player for every vote.  Cam Akers all the way.  

Zyphros said:

Love it when I can hit the same player for every vote.  Cam Akers all the way.  

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Is Akers going to be your pick here even if he doesn't get drafted until the 3rd round?

I am seeing him hall that far in mocks and so on. 

Maybe 3rd round is high enough. Just curious is you are considering this in your decision or not?

Biabreakable said:

Is Akers going to be your pick here even if he doesn't get drafted until the 3rd round?

I am seeing him hall that far in mocks and so on. 

Maybe 3rd round is high enough. Just curious is you are considering this in your decision or not?

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I am not speaking for him, but I am happy to draft a RB in the first 3 rounds.  After that I am concerned, unless it is injury related and his grade was higher.  I will take a chance then.

smbkrypt24 said:

I am not speaking for him, but I am happy to draft a RB in the first 3 rounds.  After that I am concerned, unless it is injury related and his grade was higher.  I will take a chance then.

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Yeah plenty of good RB have been 3rd round picks.

Maybe I should be asking this question for after the 3rd round where it makes more of a difference.

Biabreakable said:

Is Akers going to be your pick here even if he doesn't get drafted until the 3rd round?

I am seeing him hall that far in mocks and so on. 

Maybe 3rd round is high enough. Just curious is you are considering this in your decision or not?

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Simple answer, yes I'm still taking Akers here.  3rd doesn't scare me off at all.  If he goes 4th then the conversation shifts to which WR's I would take over him.  He's easily taken before any WR in rookie drafts to me.  

I just want to do a thought experiment here where we compare the historic value by draft pick and position as per ZWK generic rookie ranking calculation by draft position. You can find the generic rookie ranking values in this post under the VBD by draft pick tab,

Lets assume Jerry Jeudy is selected with pick 13 as I am not really seeing him fall further than that.

This would be worth 142 VBD in non PPR scoring systems and 204 VBD  A RB selected at 13 is worth 279 VBD or 320 VBD respectively. A lot more for the RB at the same draft position.

The average pick of the 3rd round not counting comp picks is pick 80.

Pick 80 and for a RB this is worth 77 VBD and 90 VBD and those values are half of the expected value of a WR at pick 13 in the first round.

I think its great to have conviction and belief in a player. No one could tell me that Jay Ajayi wasn't a good RB.

I just wonder where those cut off points should be when weighing such decisions. Right now conventional wisdom seems to favor taking RB above all else, but at some point you have to consider that a losing proposition.

The team fit on top of the draft position is key as well. You are going to value Akers more if he isn't drafted to a team wiho already has a great RB. 

At pick 5 overall I think there are too many ways that Akers is not the most valuable player for this selection.

I don't really have rules in place for draft position other than anyone outside of the top100 draft picks isn't allowed in my top20 depending on the class.  I broke my top20 rule last year with 3 people actually all at 18, 19, 20.  I'm happy I had 1 guy there (since I had him way above everyone else in talent, but he went undrafted) not so happy with the other 2 and I was just being stubborn there.  Trying to learn from last year there were 10 guys ranked behind those 3 with much higher draft capital.  Most of the guys taken earlier than 100 last year, I hadn't looked at pre-draft process so it was hard to justify in my own head they belong ahead of someone I had looked at.  That's part of the reason I expanded my list this year of how many to look at.  

My process moves guys up/down tiers with information gained, I should try to find a way to break down draft capital for another type of movement.  Just round 1, 2, 3, etc. probably isn't nuanced enough and since each draft class is different in capital invested this might be harder than I'm thinking right now.  If anyone has ideas for that I'd love to hear it.  

Tie between JK Dobbins and Justin Herbert in the 2QB poll.

Zyphros said:

I don't really have rules in place for draft position other than anyone outside of the top100 draft picks isn't allowed in my top20 depending on the class.  I broke my top20 rule last year with 3 people actually all at 18, 19, 20.  I'm happy I had 1 guy there (since I had him way above everyone else in talent, but he went undrafted) not so happy with the other 2 and I was just being stubborn there.  Trying to learn from last year there were 10 guys ranked behind those 3 with much higher draft capital.  Most of the guys taken earlier than 100 last year, I hadn't looked at pre-draft process so it was hard to justify in my own head they belong ahead of someone I had looked at.  That's part of the reason I expanded my list this year of how many to look at.  

My process moves guys up/down tiers with information gained, I should try to find a way to break down draft capital for another type of movement.  Just round 1, 2, 3, etc. probably isn't nuanced enough and since each draft class is different in capital invested this might be harder than I'm thinking right now.  If anyone has ideas for that I'd love to hear it.  

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Well ZWKs generic rookie rankings can give you sense of the relative value of the draft positions  I am not sure how you would work that into the rest of your rankings.

That is why I brought it up though. Just to get the hamster wheels rolling.

When Jay Ajayi fell to round 5 I did have to drop him to something like 18 in my post draft rankings. I wasn't happy about it. I felt differently despite all of the evidence against him becoming a success, but at the time that seemed like a reasonable thing to do. Despite that I did not forget he was the guy I liked almost as much as Gurley.

If Cam Akers goes to a good fit where he gets to start, I could see him as a 1st round pick for fantasy. That is actually more important than the draft position in this case. I can't see a scenario where I am drafting him before Jeudy right now. It would really need to blow my socks off for that to happen.

Biabreakable said:

Well ZWKs generic rookie rankings can give you sense of the relative value of the draft positions  I am not sure how you would work that into the rest of your rankings.

That is why I brought it up though. Just to get the hamster wheels rolling.

When Jay Ajayi fell to round 5 I did have to drop him to something like 18 in my post draft rankings. I wasn't happy about it. I felt differently despite all of the evidence against him becoming a success, but at the time that seemed like a reasonable thing to do. Despite that I did not forget he was the guy I liked almost as much as Gurley.

If Cam Akers goes to a good fit where he gets to start, I could see him as a 1st round pick for fantasy. That is actually more important than the draft position in this case. I can't see a scenario where I am drafting him before Jeudy right now. It would really need to blow my socks off for that to happen.

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Yeah I'm wondering if I need to put a pick value based on expected draft capital.  Then elevate/lower a guy for either beating that number or slipping.  Problem is I'm not good at projecting a pick number.  

On one hand, I don't like that process because that takes my talent evaluation grades out of the equation if I use just draft capital, and it ends up slipping guys way too far down my board.  I've been experimenting with it a bit already.  So I'd either have to adjust my total process or just try this once to see how it goes.  On the other hand draft capital is the most predictive "stat" we have so it's definitely something I need to incorporate more of.  Right now I just kind of use a guess of where they'd go, so if I use a standard deviation based on expected pick is my best guess as something that MIGHT work.  But I don't think I can move them in/out of the tiers I have in place already.  It might be best to say top of a tier or bottom of a tier?  I don't know I'm just thinking out loud.  I'll fiddle with it more.  

I'm taking Akers ahead of Jeudy basically no matter what though.  Akers will be 7th at worst for my rankings, that's if both of these happen.  1. He gets much worse capital than the other RB's.  2. Reagor or Edwards goes somewhere great early (early 2nd is fine).  

Zyphros said:

Yeah I'm wondering if I need to put a pick value based on expected draft capital.  Then elevate/lower a guy for either beating that number or slipping.  Problem is I'm not good at projecting a pick number.  

On one hand, I don't like that process because that takes my talent evaluation grades out of the equation if I use just draft capital, and it ends up slipping guys way too far down my board.  I've been experimenting with it a bit already.  So I'd either have to adjust my total process or just try this once to see how it goes.  On the other hand draft capital is the most predictive "stat" we have so it's definitely something I need to incorporate more of.  Right now I just kind of use a guess of where they'd go, so if I use a standard deviation based on expected pick is my best guess as something that MIGHT work.  But I don't think I can move them in/out of the tiers I have in place already.  It might be best to say top of a tier or bottom of a tier?  I don't know I'm just thinking out loud.  I'll fiddle with it more.  

I'm taking Akers ahead of Jeudy basically no matter what though.  Akers will be 7th at worst for my rankings, that's if both of these happen.  1. He gets much worse capital than the other RB's.  2. Reagor or Edwards goes somewhere great early (early 2nd is fine).  

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You don't want to mix up what you are doing by watching the players with this other information. I think that should stand on its own and its more valuable to have that not be influenced by other things.

You have a lot of conviction in what you believe. I don't have my mind made up about these players to a place where draft position doesn't matter.

To give an extreme scenario, what if Akers is drafted by the KC Chiefs in the 4th or 5th round?

Thee have been 4 votes since the last bump of this thread.

No votes for JK Dobbins or Herbert to resolve the tie. Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy have picked up votes making it closer to a 4 way tie developing.

I want to move on to the next poll.

I could break the tie and give it to Dobbins based on the other polls, but if Herbert is going to win this spot, I also want to let that happen.

So I will let it run awhile longer. If it isn't resolved by today I will just give it to Dobbins and move on to the next poll.