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The Great Pollenated Hate Crime Rorschach Inkblot (1 Viewer)

Dickies said:
I think we will all be in agreement that this mayor is an idiot.
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Yeah, I didn't think we wouldn't be. 

Two points, though: 

  1. The prior racism her family felt in the neighborhood left a scar that colors her worldview
  2. We need to be really wary in accepting hate crime charges not only because they can be fake, but because they can be unwittingly reported, however earnestly 

 
What a coincidence. I was just thinking what this liberal echo chamber forum really needed was another thread about a hate crime that wasn't really a hate crime.

 
squistion said:
What a coincidence. I was just thinking what this liberal echo chamber forum really needed was another thread about a hate crime that wasn't really a hate crime.
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Weird how the trend of fake hate crimes and complaints about their coverage seems to be taking off. It's almost as if there's a weird narrative being promulgated by both sides. 

Hmm...

 
She thought it was pollen and then her husband said it was spray paint.

My guess is this falls under "things not worth arguing with your spouse about" in their marriage.

 
Seriously, if I had grown up and seen crosses burned once across the corner in the same neighborhood where I currently lived in an obvious attempt to intimidate me back in the seventies (I'm assuming the story is true) I'd get my dander up a bit quickly, too. 

Hence why one of my points is that the hate crime wasn't a Smollett thing, but reported unwittingly and done from imperfect experience.  But that's also why we need to be wary about these things.  

 
Henry Ford said:
She thought it was pollen and then her husband said it was spray paint.

My guess is this falls under "things not worth arguing with your spouse about" in their marriage.
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Let's say it was spray paint. How is it a hate crime? No message. No suspects. Not painted in a picture or symbol. 

 
rockaction said:
Weird how the trend of fake hate crimes and complaints about their coverage seems to be taking off. It's almost as if there's a weird narrative being promulgated by both sides. 

Hmm...
Click to expand...
Fake hate crimes are rare (Jussie Smolett notwithstanding) and aren't any more common than they were six months. a year, or even five years ago.

They seem to be taking off because right wing media is calling attention to each and every one to make it appear they occur more frequently than they do and more frequently than actual hate crimes. Similar to publicizing crimes committed by undocumented aliens, making it appear that they are the rule, rather than the exception.

We don't even have an official Hate Crimes thread, but I fear that we now may be seeing a thread for every newly discovered fake hate crime.

 
squistion said:
Fake hate crimes are rare (Jussie Smolett notwithstanding) and aren't any more common than they were six months. a year, or even five years ago.

They seem to be taking off because right wing media is calling attention to each and every one to make it appear they occur more frequently than they do and more frequently than actual hate crimes. Similar to publicizing crimes committed by undocumented aliens, making it appear that they are the rule, rather than the exception.

We don't even have an official Hate Crimes thread, but I fear that we now may be seeing a thread for every newly discovered fake hate crime.
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Actually, Reason magazine sort of insists hate crimes are going down and are only staying constant because of reporting advances. It's an interesting article.  

http://reason.com/blog/2019/02/22/hate-crimes-and-human-trafficking

 
rockaction said:
Actually, Reason magazine sort of insists hate crimes are going down and are only staying constant because of reporting advances. It's an interesting article.  

http://reason.com/blog/2019/02/22/hate-crimes-and-human-trafficking
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They aren't staying constant. Per data from the FBI they increased by 17% in 2017 and may be significantly higher than that due to undercounting.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/13/18091646/fbi-hate-crimes-2017

FBI: reported hate crimes increased by 17 percent in 2017

The number of hate crimes reported in the US increased by 17 percent in 2017, with a particular surge in reports of anti-Jewish incidents, according to a new report from the FBI.

Most major categories of hate crimes — whether motivated by race or ancestry, religion, or sexual orientation — were reported at higher rates in 2017 than in 2016. Reported anti-Jewish crimes rose by more than 37 percent, perhaps pointing to an increase in anti-Semitism, which has gotten more and more attention after the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting.

Reported anti–Hispanic and Latino crimes also rose by more than 24 percent, and anti–American Indian or Alaska Native crimes rose by nearly 63 percent — although the number of incidents in these categories was still overall far lower than, for example, anti-black and anti-Jewish incidents.

At the same time, reported anti-Muslim crimes decreased by about 10 percent, although after sharp increases in recent years. Reported incidents motivated by gender identity also saw a very slight decrease of about 4 percent.

There are a few caveats here. The report only measures crimes reported to the FBI, so, as the FBI cautioned, the increase might not mean the number of hate crimes rose in 2017. It could be a result (at least partially) of more of those hate crimes being reported to the FBI — particularly because about 1,000 more law enforcement agencies started contributing data in 2017.

More broadly, although the FBI’s report is the most comprehensive look at the nation’s hate crimes released every year, it is known to be woefully inadequate — because other federal surveys suggest it may undercount the number of hate crimes by the hundreds of thousands.

Over the past two decades, the FBI reported between 6,000 and 10,000 hate crimes each year in the US. But when the US Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) surveyed large segments of the population between 2007 and 2011 to try to gauge the real number of hate crimes, it concluded that there are nearly 260,000 such crimes annually.

 
squistion said:
There are a few caveats here. The report only measures crimes reported to the FBI, so, as the FBI cautioned, the increase might not mean the number of hate crimes rose in 2017. It could be a result (at least partially) of more of those hate crimes being reported to the FBI — particularly because about 1,000 more law enforcement agencies started contributing data in 2017.
Click to expand...
The bolded sounds to me like Vox is saying that there is the possibility that hate crimes are not actually rising (or that they're staying constant) for the exact reason that Reason is making the claim -- advances in reporting structure.  

You actually think that in today's day and age that hate crimes are on the rise? On the contrary, IMO.  

 
Are these numbers being adjusted for the fact that more crimes are being considered hate crimes?   There could be a constant amount of crime, but simply by changing the definitions you can skew the results.    

 
-fish- said:
Are these numbers being adjusted for the fact that more crimes are being considered hate crimes?   There could be a constant amount of crime, but simply by changing the definitions you can skew the results.    
Click to expand...
You know, I'd have to read the studies they keep referring to at Vox and at Reason. I think that when both of those media outlets, coming from differing sides of the political spectrum, are talking about differences in counting, reporting, and (possibly, as you point out) definitions of what constitutes a hate crime, it is certainly something to consider. 

I intended to start this thread as a sort of a bad fact, light-hearted look at a serious issue, but then after digging, it wound up a bit serious in its import. I think, like I've said, the story she tells about the burning cross near her childhood property sort of gave me a bit of pause once I'd processed what that might mean to somebody. 

But it still is a funnier, cautionary sort of tale in a way. Messily human?  

 
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rockaction said:
The bolded sounds to me like Vox is saying that there is the possibility that hate crimes are not actually rising (or that they're staying constant) for the exact reason that Reason is making the claim -- advances in reporting structure.  

You actually think that in today's day and age that hate crimes are on the rise? On the contrary, IMO.  
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Of course, how could they not with Trump as President? Starting his campaign calling Mexican immigrants rapists and wanting to ban Muslims from entering in this country, his hateful racist rhetoric sets the tone and no one should be surprised that a rise in hate crimes is a predictable result.

 
squistion said:
Of course, how could they not with Trump as President? Starting his campaign calling Mexican immigrants rapists and wanting to ban Muslims from entering in this country, his hateful racist rhetoric sets the tone and no one should be surprised that a rise in hate crimes is a predictable result.
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I honestly don't believe that but it's not a defense of Trump. It's that I believe that abstract normative psychology doesn't often manifest itself in violent ways.  

 
squistion said:
Of course, how could they not with Trump as President? Starting his campaign calling Mexican immigrants rapists and wanting to ban Muslims from entering in this country, his hateful racist rhetoric sets the tone and no one should be surprised that a rise in hate crimes is a predictable result.
Click to expand...
Did the FBI consider 9/11 a hate crime or did it fall into a different category?

 
squistion said:
They aren't staying constant. Per data from the FBI they increased by 17% in 2017 and may be significantly higher than that due to undercounting.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/13/18091646/fbi-hate-crimes-2017

FBI: reported hate crimes increased by 17 percent in 2017

The number of hate crimes reported in the US increased by 17 percent in 2017, with a particular surge in reports of anti-Jewish incidents, according to a new report from the FBI.

Most major categories of hate crimes — whether motivated by race or ancestry, religion, or sexual orientation — were reported at higher rates in 2017 than in 2016. Reported anti-Jewish crimes rose by more than 37 percent, perhaps pointing to an increase in anti-Semitism, which has gotten more and more attention after the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting.

Reported anti–Hispanic and Latino crimes also rose by more than 24 percent, and anti–American Indian or Alaska Native crimes rose by nearly 63 percent — although the number of incidents in these categories was still overall far lower than, for example, anti-black and anti-Jewish incidents.

At the same time, reported anti-Muslim crimes decreased by about 10 percent, although after sharp increases in recent years. Reported incidents motivated by gender identity also saw a very slight decrease of about 4 percent.

There are a few caveats here. The report only measures crimes reported to the FBI, so, as the FBI cautioned, the increase might not mean the number of hate crimes rose in 2017. It could be a result (at least partially) of more of those hate crimes being reported to the FBI — particularly because about 1,000 more law enforcement agencies started contributing data in 2017.

More broadly, although the FBI’s report is the most comprehensive look at the nation’s hate crimes released every year, it is known to be woefully inadequate — because other federal surveys suggest it may undercount the number of hate crimes by the hundreds of thousands.

Over the past two decades, the FBI reported between 6,000 and 10,000 hate crimes each year in the US. But when the US Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) surveyed large segments of the population between 2007 and 2011 to try to gauge the real number of hate crimes, it concluded that there are nearly 260,000 such crimes annually.
Click to expand...
"Hate crimes rose by 17%" <> "Reported hate crimes rose by 17%"

You needed to read the bolded part before you blindly copied and pasted this.

 
rockaction said:
I honestly don't believe that but it's not a defense of Trump. It's that I believe that abstract normative psychology doesn't often manifest itself in violent ways.  
Click to expand...
So you think that when the president of the US says caravans of rapist and gang members are flooding our borders to prey on our families, that a few weak minded individuals won't buy into it and have it impact their actions?  Remember he has like 60+M supporters so a few whackos in the group isn't unexpected. 

 
James Daulton said:
So you think that when the president of the US says caravans of rapist and gang members are flooding our borders to prey on our families, that a few weak minded individuals won't buy into it and have it impact their actions?  Remember he has like 60+M supporters so a few whackos in the group isn't unexpected. 
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I just don't think it's on a grand scale, or enough to move the needle by thousands. Are there some crazies that take his rhetoric literally and believe it? I'm sure there are. I just don't think, in terms of discernible motive, that hate crimes have seen a spike since Trump.  

I could be wrong. The studies nor their conclusions seem settled, really.  

 
James Daulton said:
So you think that when the president of the US says caravans of rapist and gang members are flooding our borders to prey on our families, that a few weak minded individuals won't buy into it and have it impact their actions?  Remember he has like 60+M supporters so a few whackos in the group isn't unexpected. 
Click to expand...
Trump is vile and he is making things worse.  I think it's extremely unlikely that Trump caused a 37% increase in anti-Jewish hate crimes in one year.  It is vastly more likely that this is mainly or even entirely an increase in reports as opposed to an actual increase in hate crimes.

 
Imagine seeing this story and the story about the Omar poster in the West Virginia State House and deciding this is the one that deserves your attention and its own thread.

Im so ####### sick and tired of this crap. I’m sick and tired of conservatives drumming up every one these dumb stories so they can play victim. I’m sick and tired of the real stories of bigotry, hatred and violence getting minimized by a news media that confuses equal time coverage with fair and honest converage. I’m sick and tired of people posting stories like this one and the hat-snatchers and  troll-punchers, people who clearly think that the rare false accusations of bigotry are a greater evil than bigotry, or who at best bury their heads so far in the sand that they think bigotry is rare and false accusations aren’t when clearly the opposite is true. And I’m tired of the moderators around here and in other “polite” spaces telling us that the people who knowingly put bigotry, misogyny and xenophobia in our White House, our Congress, our governors mansions and our state houses are decent smart people  who deserve my respect. #### that. We need to start being honest with ourselves about these people, what they condone, and the threat it presents. Not prentending it’ll all go away if we don’t curse at each other on a message board.

Not sure why swinging by the forum this morning and seeing no threads about the Omar thing but like 4 threads about false accusations was my breaking point, but apparently it was. Anyway, I’ll take my ban now. Best to all the good folks here, don’t forget to be active in state and local elections.

 
Yes, because the implication of losing one's liberty in the form of a jail cell shouldn't be emphasized, but casual ignorance that does nothing but cast aspersions deserves our utmost attention, condemnation, and virtue signaling. 

Two incidents that would result in hate crime arrests vs. one thoughtless display in a state capitol. Okie dokie, as squis would say.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
"Hate crimes rose by 17%" <> "Reported hate crimes rose by 17%"

You needed to read the bolded part before you blindly copied and pasted this.
Click to expand...
Actually that means that actual hate crimes probably rose a lot more than 17% due to the great number that are unreported.

And what percentage of that 17% did the FBI attribute to being fake?

 
squistion said:
Actually that means that actual hate crimes probably rose a lot more than 17% due to the great number that are unreported.
Click to expand...
No, that's not how this works.

Put simply, let X denote the number of reported hate crimes, let Y be the number of actual hate crimes, and let p be the proportion of hate crimes that are reported.  Then X = pY.  The story that you posted notes that p rose in 2017 due to an increase in agencies submitting reports.  So the 17% increase in X could be entirely attributable to that increase in p even if Y remained constant.  It's possible that Y also increased, but we know for sure that p rose, which tells us that Y rose by less than 17% (and could have remained constant or even fallen for all we know).

 
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IvanKaramazov said:
Trump is vile and he is making things worse.  I think it's extremely unlikely that Trump caused a 37% increase in anti-Jewish hate crimes in one year.  It is vastly more likely that this is mainly or even entirely an increase in reports as opposed to an actual increase in hate crimes.
Click to expand...
I would agree with this. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Trump is vile and he is making things worse.  I think it's extremely unlikely that Trump caused a 37% increase in anti-Jewish hate crimes in one year.  It is vastly more likely that this is mainly or even entirely an increase in reports as opposed to an actual increase in hate crimes.
Click to expand...
Wasnt most of that number based on bomb threats that came from a teenager in Israel? 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Trump is vile and he is making things worse.  I think it's extremely unlikely that Trump caused a 37% increase in anti-Jewish hate crimes in one year.  It is vastly more likely that this is mainly or even entirely an increase in reports as opposed to an actual increase in hate crimes.
Click to expand...
I would agree with you if one of his first acts in office hadn’t been to direct the DHS extremism task force to stop devoting resources to white nationalist groups. Including an entire section whose purpose was to counter attempts to radicalize youth.  

 
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