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On The Clock: Redraft Pick 4.09 (1 Viewer)

At pick 4.09, I take:

  • Ju Ju Smith-Shuster

    Votes: 11 21.2%

  • DeShaun Watson

    Votes: 4 7.7%

  • Rashaad Penny

    Votes: 4 7.7%

  • Golden Tate

    Votes: 8 15.4%

  • Allen Robinson

    Votes: 13 25.0%

  • Kenyan Drake

    Votes: 7 13.5%

  • Jimmy Graham

    Votes: 3 5.8%

  • other (please pick some one reasonable at the ADP and list in thread)

    Votes: 2 3.8%
  • Total voters
    52
Dr. Octopus

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I will run this as a new series of threads for some redraft discussion. We will jump around through various parts of the draft and look at players in that tier that should be available. I'll use ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp to present some on the clock scenarios with polls as to who you would take. I am going to base this on ppr leagues because at this point I think they are the most popular but those of you in standard leagues feel free to vote and discuss what you would do "differently" in standard leagues.

I strongly encourage people to not just vote in the poll but discuss their choices.

Past Threads:

Pick 1.04

For this "OTC" thread we will move into late Round 4 (where there is still some nice value). I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds but for the purpose of this exercise assume you are well balanced (2WR, 1RB or 2RB, 1 WR). The draft is now getting back to you in late Round 4, do you grab a top QB, keep building up your RB/WR corp or go with one of the few top TEs still available?

 
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Please remember without any discussion these threads will not be very helpful - the purpose is discuss players with similar ADPs and what you expect from them.

 
I went with Golden Tate who seems perpetually under-rated. He's virtually a lock for 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards.

I would also strongly consider Smith-Shuster who should put those numbers up as well - but the competition for touches in the Steeler offense is much steeper.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
It'd be helpful to know who you drafted already imo
Click to expand...


For this "OTC" thread we will move into late Round 4 (where there is still some nice value). I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds but for the purpose of this exercise assume you are well balanced (2WR, 1RB or 2RB, 1 WR). The draft is now getting back to you in late Round 4, do you grab a top QB, keep building up your RB/WR corp or go with one of the few top TEs still available?
Click to expand...

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I went with Golden Tate who seems perpetually under-rated. He's virtually a lock for 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards.

I would also strongly consider Smith-Shuster who should put those numbers up as well - but the competition for touches in the Steeler offense is much steeper.
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This

 
No way Watson lasts that long in my 6 point passing touchdown league. He will go 2 rounds before that in my league. So, if Watson were available at 4.09, he would be my choice. Assuming he is not, I would go with Smith-Schuster. Tate would be my second choice, but he doesn't seem to score a lot of TDs. Plus, the Lions are seemingly looking to run more this season, and with the emergence of Golloday (and don't forget perennially underrated Marvin Jones), I think Smith-Schuster is the choice, as between Lev Bell and Antonio Brown, he will NEVER see double coverage. 

 
Keith1 said:
No way Watson lasts that long in my 6 point passing touchdown league. He will go 2 rounds before that in my league. So, if Watson were available at 4.09, he would be my choice. Assuming he is not, I would go with Smith-Schuster. Tate would be my second choice, but he doesn't seem to score a lot of TDs. Plus, the Lions are seemingly looking to run more this season, and with the emergence of Golloday (and don't forget perennially underrated Marvin Jones), I think Smith-Schuster is the choice, as between Lev Bell and Antonio Brown, he will NEVER see double coverage. 
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You're probably right about this. In my local league, while there are some that wait on QBs, they do go off the board quicker than mocks or "expert" leagues will have you believe.

With that said, personally I'd still pass on Watson - I like him fine but I don't think last season's pace is sustainable and I just see way too much QB value in the double digit rounds.

 
I went JuJu and I think it's the easiest/obvious choice in this poll.  I expect more catches, more yards and probably the same amount of TD's for him.  I can understand going Tate or Allen Robinson here, but they're clearly below JuJu for me with more question marks so I feel like you're making it risky going that way. 

Golladay is going to see more action, there are people hyping up Luke Willson as the starting TE and Kerryon Johnson is a pass catcher not just a between the tackles guy.

Robinson, although he's the #1, hasn't done anything in a while and coming off injury with a 2nd year QB who we expect to be at least decent with tons of other weapons on that offense.  I feel like everyone is hyping this team but the reality is it's year 1 of a new offense with a 2nd year QB who has never thrown to almost anyone on that team before this year.  

Like I said, lots of questions on those other picks and it's clearly WR for me.  I'm actually shocked there was a Watson pick.  

 
I’m assuming I’ve gone David Johnson at 1.04, and RB/WR at the 2/3 turn - I don’t want to have to pick from this group for my RB2, so let’s say I end up with Jordan Howard in the 2nd and Adam Thielen in the 3rd.  I believe I can wait and find better value at QB and TE than taking one here, so at 4.09 I’m most likely looking to add another WR to round out the core of my starting lineup.  Of this group I’m hoping to grab Smith-Schuster, with Tate a very close 2nd.  There’s a decent chance only one of them falls to this spot so the decision is made for me.  They could both be gone by 4.09, in which case I’m grabbing Brandin Cooks. 

 
This draft position would line up with the 1.4 pick.  I'd probably go David Johnson there--barely beating out Antonio Brown.  If I went David Johnson in the first--I'd go either AJ Green/Mike Evans in the second.  In the third--I'd go/hope for a guy like Joe Mixon. If I could score that start in the first 3 rounds--I'd want to go another wr here.  I have Juju just ahead of Tate in my ppr rankings--so I'd take him.  

 
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jvdesigns2002 said:
This draft position would like up with the 1.4 pick.  I'd probably go David Johnson there--barely beating out Antonio Brown.  If I went David Johnson in the first--I'd go either AJ Green/Mike Evans in the second.  In the third--I'd go/hope for a guy like Joe Mixon. If I could score that start in the first 3 rounds--I'd want to go another wr here.  I have Juju just ahead of Tate in my ppr rankings--so I'd take him.  
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I didn't mean for that to happen since the first poll was for the 1.04 but it did work out that way (and Johnson did win the first poll).

 
People had better start paying attention to reports out of GB about Graham.  Word is that he’s predominantly lining up out wide and is clicking big time with Rodgers.  If he holds his TE designation and this is a TE required league, he could be a steal of epic proportions.

 
In late round 4 this year I am usually looking to keep building RB and WR ranks. 

If I am looking for a RB I like Miller, Collins, Drake in that order.

If I am looking for WR I like Marvin Jones, D. Thomas, JuJu in that order.

Late 4th I would probably lean Miller and then try to get Jones in the early 5th.  Both feel pretty safe to get RB/WR2 numbers with good up side.

 
I love JuJu for dynasty but in redraft I worry about him being another Pitt WR2 that flashed but then regresses some beyond that.  He did also have a couple really big gains on busted plays last year that I'm not sure will happen again.  I have ARob ahead of him in redraft.

Tate is the safe pick but I am not a risk averse fantasy player, so to me this comes down to Penny vs. ARob.  I probably go ARob in the end but if I needed a RB I wouldn't hesitate to grab Penny.

 
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For me this comes down to Tate, Robinson, and Drake.

Graham has shown too many signs of decline for me to take him this early (even with Rodgers), at QB I prefer Wilson & Brady who have been doing it for years and not just for 7 games, Penny appears to be in a full-fledged competition with Carson, and JuJu could have a hard time getting enough targets to have 4th round value.

Tate is the safest option given all the 90+ reception seasons that he has strung together in Detroit, but doesn't have a ton of upside. Robinson has the most upside - he could put up huge numbers as a target hog but on the other hand the Bears passing offense might suck or they might spread it around like the 2017 Eagles with fewer TDs. It's unclear how big a workload Drake will get; the Miami backfield could wind up as more of a committee. I voted Tate, but could see myself taking Robinson or Tate on a different day.

 
Went Watson here.

Not out of the question he leads the entire fantasy world in scoring this year. at 4.09- an insane value.

The only guy on this last capable of winning weeks for owners on his own.

 
So easy to find value at QB late, I can't see taking a running qb coming off a knee injury on top of it. I'd take Robinson for the upside. Juju is overrated in redraft imo. 

 
Ack88 said:
Went Watson here.

Not out of the question he leads the entire fantasy world in scoring this year. at 4.09- an insane value.
Click to expand...
The bolded sounds like a hyperbolic way to say it's not out of the question that he's QB1 this year (QBs tend to be the highest scoring position), which is obviously very possible since he's being drafted as QB2.  That doesn't make him an insane value, necessarily - despite being the highest fantasy point producers QBs usually aren't drafted until round 4+ for a reason.  

Not arguing with the pick at all, just don't quite agree with the reasoning.  The fact that Deshaun Watson might lead the entire fantasy world in scoring this year is already baked into his ADP.  

 
Ack88 said:
Went Watson here.

Not out of the question he leads the entire fantasy world in scoring this year. at 4.09- an insane value.

The only guy on this last capable of winning weeks for owners on his own.
Click to expand...
It would be an insane value if 2qb or super flex. 

As it is, Aaron Rodgers barely goes much higher. 

 
-OZ- said:
It would be an insane value if 2qb or super flex. 

As it is, Aaron Rodgers barely goes much higher. 
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The mocks I have seen have Rodgers going well before Watson- but I have not seen a ton yet- rounding in to form now.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
The bolded sounds like a hyperbolic way to say it's not out of the question that he's QB1 this year (QBs tend to be the highest scoring position), which is obviously very possible since he's being drafted as QB2.  That doesn't make him an insane value, necessarily - despite being the highest fantasy point producers QBs usually aren't drafted until round 4+ for a reason.  

Not arguing with the pick at all, just don't quite agree with the reasoning.  The fact that Deshaun Watson might lead the entire fantasy world in scoring this year is already baked into his ADP.  
Click to expand...
I think he has the highest ceiling of all QBs. While I have not seen a ton of mocks or rankings, the ones I’ve seen have him below Rodgers, Wilson, and Brady. While I do understand your point, I’d love to grab him at the back end of round 4. 

 
If I'm balanced per the thread assumption I'd go WR. Too early for QB. I have Tate and JuJu close in my projections but I'd probably go JuJu as I think he has better upside which is ok as your WR2 or 3. Golladay is going to take some production away from Tate/Jones. There will likely be an NFL team's WR duo who both finish top 12 in PPR scoring and my money would be on Brown/JuJu (I think next most likely is Thielen/Diggs). There has been a duo like this (both in top 12) in 9 of the past 10 years and in half of the years there has actually been two duos.  Though last year it was Tate/Jones so probably also ok to go Tate here  :D

 
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I actually rolled with TE Jimmy Graham here as I think he has a legit chance to finish as a Top 3 TE and maybe even challenge for the 1 spot despite being 32 years old.

  • In the right year, he's capable of 10+ TDs in a given season. Even last year he finished with 10 TDs. Playing with A-Rod will help him immensely. Bennett was on a 51 catch pace if he'd played 15 games in Green Bay. Last time Aaron Rodgers had as athletic a TE was maybe Jermichael Finley who put up a few 600-700 yard seasons and Graham's far more athletic.
  • He's just 2 years removed from a season in which he had 923 yards and a 14.2 YPR. His catch rate last year was still almost 60%, which is pretty solid.
  • Green Bay will rely on Graham a fair amount and utilize him split out wide after losing Jordy Nelson and having a lot of rookies at the WR position.
  • Marcedes Lewis and Lance Kendricks are more in-line blocking TEs at this stage of their careers and will help afford Graham to be more of a pure receiver like he was in New Orleans.
 
For me it came down to juju, ar15, and Tate. I would view these guys differently depending on who my other WRs are. For instance, if I went rb and then took tyreek hill in rd 2, I’m worried about his scoring variation and probably take the reliable Tate. Ar15 will likely be wr1 on his team and has the talent and size to be a red zone threat, but new team/qb makes this no sure thing. Juju/Tate aren’t really wr1 and have more mouths to feed. I think all 3 finish the season pretty close in scoring but get there differently. Juju will get there with Big games mixed in with Big Ben on the road (who doesn’t score the same as at home), Tate having consistent smaller weeks, and ar15 doing red zone work. 

I do expect the rbs to dry up quickly here so if I’m rb needy I take drake at this point of the offseason. 

Happy to wait on a qb- I just took Matt Ryan in the 11th in the guppy draft. Lots of qbs available late. 

GB tes are like NE rbs- always seem to have great potential only to disappoint. Id rather draft elsewhere and be wrong.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
It'd be helpful to know who you drafted already imo
Click to expand...


Dr. Octopus said:
For this "OTC" thread we will move into late Round 4 (where there is still some nice value). I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds but for the purpose of this exercise assume you are well balanced (2WR, 1RB or 2RB, 1 WR). The draft is now getting back to you in late Round 4, do you grab a top QB, keep building up your RB/WR corp or go with one of the few top TEs still available?
Click to expand...
It's not quite that simple, though.

For instance, my answer changes if after DJ at 1.04 I drafted McKinnon and Tyreek Hill at 2.09/3.04, vs. Freeman and Thielen, vs. Gronk and Baldwin.

In the former case I've baked a lot of risk into my squad and would prefer the higher floor that Tate offers. In the second I've got some guaranteed production and need to start shooting for some ceiling guys, in which case the pick would be Robinson. And in the latter I'm really light at the RB position and would probably have to hold my nose and grab Drake in anything less than a full-PPR format.

In a complete vacuum I lean Tate here, but this is very much an "it depends" question.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
It's not quite that simple, though.

For instance, my answer changes if after DJ at 1.04 I drafted McKinnon and Tyreek Hill at 2.09/3.04, vs. Freeman and Thielen, vs. Gronk and Baldwin.

In the former case I've baked a lot of risk into my squad and would prefer the higher floor that Tate offers. In the second I've got some guaranteed production and need to start shooting for some ceiling guys, in which case the pick would be Robinson. And in the latter I'm really light at the RB position and would probably have to hold my nose and grab Drake in anything less than a full-PPR format.

In a complete vacuum I lean Tate here, but this is very much an "it depends" question.
Click to expand...
Well - this is only an exercise to discuss players and drafting styles. It's not going to be a perfect science and I can not account for every possible scenario.

I think this is good feedback though and should be part of the discussion - and I agree what you did until that point matters. I even acknowledged that ("I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds") - but since we aren't really in a draft here, general and more generic discussions will have to suffice. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Well - this is only an exercise to discuss players and drafting styles. It's not going to be a perfect science and I can not account for every possible scenario.

I think this is good feedback though and should be part of the discussion - and I agree what you did until that point matters. I even acknowledged that ("I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds") - but since we aren't really in a draft here, general and more generic discussions will have to suffice. 
Click to expand...
Understood ... though given the discussions are only going to get more abstract as we get further along, perhaps I'd suggest rebooting this concept with the board weighing in on every round, and carrying forward our results to date into each new thread - in other words, a "live mock draft" in the forum. I'd certainly weigh in!

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Understood ... though given the discussions are only going to get more abstract as we get further along, perhaps I'd suggest rebooting this concept with the board weighing in on every round, and carrying forward our results to date into each new thread - in other words, a "live mock draft" in the forum. I'd certainly weigh in!
Click to expand...
That's a good idea and beneficial as an exercise as well - but would really only relate to only one specific draft slot and it would also have some flaws (for example people that never would have taken Player X in Round 2 are now forced to draft as if that player is on their team).

I'm going to continue with just random slots - and hope people can understand that we are really just looking at players and strategies generally, and obviously it's not a perfect exercise but hopefully a beneficial one.

My goal is to get people to discuss their insights into specific players and their thoughts on drafting styles. In later rounds it will be more about sleepers they like, in early rounds it will be mostly about preferences as to the players available, in middle rounds it will be things like do you continue to wait on a QB, etc.

It's mostly for fun and discussion though.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
That's a good idea and beneficial as an exercise as well - but would really only relate to only one specific draft slot and it would also have some flaws (for example people that never would have taken Player X in Round 2 are now forced to draft as if that player is on their team).

I'm going to continue with just random slots - and hope people can understand that we are really just looking at players and strategies generally, and obviously it's not a perfect exercise but hopefully a beneficial one.

My goal is to get people to discuss their insights into specific players and their thoughts on drafting styles. In later rounds it will be more about sleepers they like, in early rounds it will be mostly about preferences as to the players available, in middle rounds it will be things like do you continue to wait on a QB, etc.

It's mostly for fun and discussion though.
Click to expand...
Doc---hoping you will start a thread for those with pick 1.01. Gurley seems like the obvious choice there, but hoping to hear from others as to why Zeke or Lev Bell might be a better pick. 

 
Keith1 said:
Doc---hoping you will start a thread for those with pick 1.01. Gurley seems like the obvious choice there, but hoping to hear from others as to why Zeke or Lev Bell might be a better pick. 
Click to expand...
Someone (not a specific individual, just someone in general) invariably starts a series of "Official 1st pick thread", "official 4th pick thread" and so on at some point in early August. Feel free to start it up now if you're itching to have the discussion! :)

 
Keith1 said:
Doc---hoping you will start a thread for those with pick 1.01. Gurley seems like the obvious choice there, but hoping to hear from others as to why Zeke or Lev Bell might be a better pick. 
Click to expand...
I'll do that one next - probably tomorrow. I do think Gurely will run away with it but I'd love to hear some arguments for Zeke, Bell or even Brown.

 
I would be tempted to take Ingram. You can probably get him a round later at his current ADP, but we'll see by the time we get to the end of August. If you can get by the first month, he's more of a sure thing than Penny or Drake.  I think Ingram is great value.

I love what I saw out of Drake last year, but Gore may be a bigger thorn to his value than we suspect. Do we trust Miami to feed Drake?

I don't care if it's a 4, 6, or 10 point td league, I'm not taking Watson. It's all about relative value and only needing one QB.

I think Schuster could return WR2 value. . Tate probably does as well unless Golloday is healthy and steals targets from Tate and Jones.

Robinson probably has the best chance to exceed draft value, but is no sure thing.

I'm not feeling Penny at all. 

I would prefer Graham at a later point in the draft. He might be good, but I would rather take a RB or WR here.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Someone (not a specific individual, just someone in general) invariably starts a series of "Official 1st pick thread", "official 4th pick thread" and so on at some point in early August. Feel free to start it up now if you're itching to have the discussion! :)
Click to expand...
I did not want to step on Doc Ock's toes. Plus, I figured if I started such a thread, invariably, the Shark Pool police (they know who they are--they get off on needlessly giving people ####), would say that such a thread is a "Who Do I Draft?" thread, belonging in the Assistant Coach forum. 

 
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Keith1 said:
I did not want to step on Doc Ock's toes. Plus, I figured if I started such a thread, invariably, the Shark Pool police (they know who they are--they get off on needlessly giving people ####), would say that such a thread is a "Who Do I Draft?" thread, belonging in the Assistant Coach forum. 
Click to expand...
Those threads seem to be acceptable and we see them each year. If you would prefer a thread for the full pick 1 strategy - I'm fine with that.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Those threads seem to be acceptable and we see them each year. If you would prefer a thread for the full pick 1 strategy - I'm fine with that.
Click to expand...
I just sort of felt like I would get grief for it whereas you would not. LOL. I think I can wait for you to start it up. Thanks Doc

 
Demaryius Thomas or, if he's gone, Fitzgerald. Keenum isn't great, but a hell of a lot better than a shot Manning, Osweiler and whatever the Broncos were rolling out last year. I expect something around 1100 y and 6-8 TDs with a solid chance for more. Tate doesn't have that ceiling, Robinson is too much of a risk (injury and performance) and I tend to shy away from still somewhat unproven guys like Juju that early. 

 
I'd likely be looking for WR2 here and would go with the reliability of Larry Fitz, who has an ADP of 5.01 on MFL.
Limited to above list, I'd take Tate. Too early for me to be looking at TE or QB.

 
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Ronald Jones ll. I don’t believe in Peyton Barber or Quiz or Sims. I don’t think he is a superstar but I think he will be good enough at everything to be a full time back. And we know volume = FF points. He went high enough in the draft that TB should be giving him opportunities to win the job rather than him having to force his way to the top.

 
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