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Rank the rookie WR so far (1 Viewer)

massraider

massraider

Footballguy
RB discussion in the other thread is good, here's a spot for the WRs.

DJ Moore
Courtland Sutton
Calvin Ridley
Christian Kirk
James Washington
Michael Gallup
Anthony Miller
Dante Pettis
DJ Chark
Tre'Quan Smith
Antonio Callaway
Deon Cain
Jordan Lasley
DaeSean Hamilton
Equanimeous St. Brown
Auden Tate
Keke Coutee
J'Mon Moore
Daurice Fountain
Allen Lazard
Richie James
Marcell Ateman
Simmie Cobbs
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Cedrick Wilson
Deontay Burnett
Jaleel Scott
Jake  Wieneke
Ray-Ray McCloud
Trey Quinn
Braxton Berrios
Justin Watson

These are rankings stolen from some other site.

 
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Super bummed about James Washington's landing spot.

Courtland Sutton, this is a 2019 play.  I fully expect D. Thomas and Sanders to be cap casualties after this year.  

 
massraider said:
Super bummed about James Washington's landing spot.

Courtland Sutton, this is a 2019 play.  I fully expect D. Thomas and Sanders to be cap casualties after this year.  
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This is something that could change my mind in regards to Sutton. 

My initial impression was to see him as blocked for playing time, but maybe not if both Thomas and Sanders are not Broncos in 2019.

I do like Sutton although he is still rough around the edges as far as a refined route runner. I had him as a tier 2a player before the draft which means I thought he might have tier one upside if he were drafted high enough and to a good spot without much competition for opportunity, Dallas a good example and this was rumored to be a possibility more times than you could shake a stick at leading up to the draft.

That didn't happen. He was still drafted pretty high at 40 overall and was the 3rd WR selected. So I may have ranked him too low just based off of this, but I did with the idea in mind that Thomas would be a Bronco for the next 3 seasons. Maybe I am wrong about that. 

 
Biabreakable said:
This is something that could change my mind in regards to Sutton. 

My initial impression was to see him as blocked for playing time, but maybe not if both Thomas and Sanders are not Broncos in 2019.

I do like Sutton although he is still rough around the edges as far as a refined route runner. I had him as a tier 2a player before the draft which means I thought he might have tier one upside if he were drafted high enough and to a good spot without much competition for opportunity, Dallas a good example and this was rumored to be a possibility more times than you could shake a stick at leading up to the draft.

That didn't happen. He was still drafted pretty high at 40 overall and was the 3rd WR selected. So I may have ranked him too low just based off of this, but I did with the idea in mind that Thomas would be a Bronco for the next 3 seasons. Maybe I am wrong about that. 
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Yeah, DT and Sanders can each save over $10mm of cap space by being cut next year. They also invested a 3rd in Henderson last year.  Broncos situation is interesting. 

 
WR rankings for 2018 (still subject to change as I have more time to think about this).

Tier one

Nobody

Tier two

Calvin Ridley 25 Falcons
Anthony Miller 51 Bears
DJ Moore 24 Panthers
Christian Kirk 47 Cardinals
Dante Pettis 44 49ers
Trequan Smith 91 Saints
Michael Gallup 81 Cowboys
Courtland Sutton 40 Broncos
James Washington 60 Steelers
Equanimeous St. Brown 207 Packers

Tier three

Cedric Wilson 208 Cowboys

DJ Chark 81 Jaguars

Antonio Callaway 105 Browns

Deion Cain 185 Colts

Watch list

103 Keke Coutee WR Texans
133 Jmon Moore WR Packers
144 Justin Watson WR Bucs
159 Daurice Fountain WR Colts
162 Jordan Lasley WR Revens
174 Marquez Valdez-Scantling WR Packers
175 Damion Ratley WR Browns
187 Ray Ray Mcloud WR Bills
191 Dylan Cantrell WR Chargers
194 Russell Gage WR Falcons
210 Braxton Berrios WR Patriots
224 Javon Wims WR Bears
228 Marcell Ateman WR Raiders
240 Richie James WR 49ers
253 Auden Tate WR Bengals
255 Austin Proehl WR Bills
256 Trey Quinn WR Redskins

This is very deep and just listed by draft position. There are a lot of WR i did not find time to watch this year. Even the above guys who I have watched somewhat are almost all players who I should study more than I have.

I see the players in the same tier as pretty interchangeable and having similar value, so it isn't a big deal the order they are in, just who I would prefer to select.

Maybe Washington and St Brown should move down to tier 3.

Sutton should maybe be ahead of Trequan Smith and Michael Gallup, I do think Sutton has more upside and he was drafted a lot higher than these two were, I just like Smith with Brees and Gallup as the likely WR one for the Cowboys as better situations to make an impact and if they do lock up a job while Sutton is likely fighting for playing time, at least for the 2018 season.

I could see DJ Moore being ahead of Miller also because of the draft position. I like MIller a lot though and if Trubisky improves (as I expect him to) Miller has a chance to become their most targeted WR although that will still likely be Robinson.

Just a few thoughts about things I might change soon.

I do not like DJ Chark and not sure how he is any different than Deion Cain?. Late risers in the draft process at WR make me nervous. I know Chark was not rated very high by draftniks in February and so I don't think him running a fast time at the combine should have changed the outlook on him as much as it did. We already knew he was fast. I think the Jaguars made a mistake drafting him as high as they did, but maybe I am wrong about that. 

 
massraider said:
Super bummed about James Washington's landing spot.

Courtland Sutton, this is a 2019 play.  I fully expect D. Thomas and Sanders to be cap casualties after this year.  
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I wonder if Carlos Henderson will emerge with Sutton....in such a scenario. They'll both get chances to show this year. 

 
I kinda like the Moore landing spot. Ginn had 10 TDs a few years back. Olsen is getting older. I like Funchess but don't view him as elite or elite potential. Seems a good match to Cam's arm. I still wouldn't take him until 1.6 or 1.7 though.

I wasn't following Pettis at all before the landing spot and the fact he was taken top 50. Such a great landing spot but why. With Beathard last year and Pettis this year, is someone in SF FO making picks as favors to friends? Imagine if they took Washington there.

Probably gonna target Jaleel Scott a lot. Baltimore is a decent situation - a lot of stopgap players - and it's a mild vote of confidence that they took him as a small school project player ahead of where he was projected.

My top 5 is probably Moore, Ridley, Sutton, Washington, Gallup. Gallup increased due to landing spot, and Washington dropped, but not much.

Debating what I do at the end of the 1st, since I'll be tempted to take Mayfield over most of these guys, save Moore and Ridley.

 
thriftyrocker said:
 .

My top 5 is probably Moore, Ridley, Sutton, Washington, Gallup. Gallup increased due to landing spot, and Washington dropped, but not much.
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Boone22 said:
I like this top 5 list except I’d probably have Kirk in place of Washington.  
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Agreed. Although I'm really not sure about Gallup vs Miller. I decided to take Miller in one league, I see more upside with him as a player long term. Gallup could be really valuable as a rookie if he's able to beat top coverage. But I'm not sure he can do that. Without Dez or Witten next year, we can expect a down year for the cowboys. 

But if Gallup can handle the duties, his stock will soar next year.

 
I'm trying to wrap my head around the lack of love for Pettis. I know SP didn't like him before the draft, but things changed when San Fran made him the 4th WR taken. He should at least be ranked higher than James Washington by virtue of draft status and situation. 

 
cloppbeast said:
I'm trying to wrap my head around the lack of love for Pettis. I know SP didn't like him before the draft, but things changed when San Fran made him the 4th WR taken. He should at least be ranked higher than James Washington by virtue of draft status and situation. 
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 They already have a couple guys just like him and it feels like he was more of a special teams pick. 

 
Biabreakable said:
I do not like DJ Chark and not sure how he is any different than Deion Cain?. Late risers in the draft process at WR make me nervous. I know Chark was not rated very high by draftniks in February and so I don't think him running a fast time at the combine should have changed the outlook on him as much as it did. We already knew he was fast. I think the Jaguars made a mistake drafting him as high as they did, but maybe I am wrong about that. 
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Yeah Chark is tough to read. I feel like he flashed at LSU when given the chance + a competent throw but both of those things were rarities in our passing game. My main concern with him is build; I wonder if he’ll get pushed around a bit. I guess it depends on where they end up lining him up. I do like the landing spot and draft position and think he could do well but it wouldn’t surprise me entirely if he becomes a home run play more than a steady producer. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Steelers' offense can support 3 WRs and they don't really have a legit TE. I wouldn't expect consistency week to week but I like the landing spot.
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Vance McDonald looked like a legit TE:

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/04/05/vance-mcdonald-steelers-jesse-james-xavier-grimble-nfl-draft-tight-ends/stories/201804080024

In the final four games he played during the regular season and the playoffs, McDonald caught 19 passes for 216 yards. In the playoff game against Jacksonville, McDonald caught 10 passes for 112 yards and was targeted a team-high 16 times.

 
cloppbeast said:
I'm trying to wrap my head around the lack of love for Pettis. I know SP didn't like him before the draft, but things changed when San Fran made him the 4th WR taken. He should at least be ranked higher than James Washington by virtue of draft status and situation. 
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I think both players will not be worth their draft spot. I would rather have Goodwin than Pettis as a bet on SF, and would not trade a top 15 pick for Goodwin. If Pettis is available in the early 3rd, after Goedert, Gesicki, and Lamar Jackson are all gone, I would definitely consider him, but I think he won't be based on draft status.

Long term Pettis has a clearer path to being a 1A or 1B option, but given they have invested so little in WR, taking a WR next year either early or by FA seems likely. SF is very fluid.

Of course Pittsburgh is not fluid at all, Washington is unlikely to be more than a NFL WR3 and fantasy flex outside of injury to those above him, but like Westbrook last year, if he flashes potential that's enough. 

 
Here is all the WR's I have ranked in my top40

Michael Gallup - He's been my favorite and #1 for 4 months now and his landing spot is awesome.  I have to keep him as my #1.  

DJ Moore - I didn't have him very high before the draft but I like the Panthers landing spot so he's now my #2. 

Christian Kirk - My guess is that the Cardinals view him as an outside WR as well as a slot so that enhances his value to me.  I think he and Rosen are prime for each other.  

Anthony Miller - That team is transitioning to a throwing team and I want a piece of that.  He compliments Arob so well.  

Calvin Ridley - Ideal spot that he doesn't have to be a #1 because he isn't a #1.  Volume probably not very high though I'd imagine.

Courtland Sutton - Broncos took 2 WR's which I think says a lot about how much longer DT and Sanders are good for a role.  Never liked him a ton before so this is kind of where a "default ranking" comes into play for me.

Equanimeous St. Brown - 6th round was a blow to his value when I had him at WR3 before the draft.  Landing spot I like a lot so I'm trying to stay true to how good I thought he is.  

James Washington - Never liked him, I'm a Steelers fan, I have to like him now.  Not ideal spot, but maybe with Rudolph there as the potential future, they connect in 2-3 years when Ben/Brown are either gone or over the hill. 

DJ Chark - Ugly spot but not much in competition when it comes to commitment to their WR's.  None of them are very highly regarded or paid highly (unless you count Lee).  

Daeshawn Hamilton - Same notes as Sutton and I think they compliment each other so it kind of just depends on who puts the work in.  I think he has a good shot at unseating Sanders though.

Tre'Quan Smith - Burried on the depth chart at first glance, but there is a clear path to playing time.  Ginn and Coleman don't seem like big obstacles to me.  Meredith maybe. 

Justin Watson - Buccaneers again could be easy path to playing time.  Godwin was about the same type of prospect except drafted earlier, and Humphries isn't much of a challenge, and DeSean Jackson is over the hill.

Cedric Wilson - He was a sleeper guy for me and looks like he'll stay in that area in a good landing spot.  I think he could grow into a Jeremy Maclin type of guy so he's an interesting one.

Dante Pettis - I had him as DND (do not draft) before the draft.  

 
DAG said:
Yeah Chark is tough to read. I feel like he flashed at LSU when given the chance + a competent throw but both of those things were rarities in our passing game. My main concern with him is build; I wonder if he’ll get pushed around a bit. I guess it depends on where they end up lining him up. I do like the landing spot and draft position and think he could do well but it wouldn’t surprise me entirely if he becomes a home run play more than a steady producer. 
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I do think it makes sense for the Jaguars to have field stretcher as replacement for Robinson.

I just don't see him being more than that and his opportunities will be low and sporadic unless he can do more than that?

Maybe he can. I haven't spent a lot of time watching him and not sure if doing that would really help as LSU used him as a deep threat and they don't throw the ball much anyways.

For fantasy I am looking for WR who will be more consistent than that. Chark seems like he will be a boom bust play and I think other WR the Jaguars have such as DeDe Westbrook are better bets for production for fantasy than Chark will be.

I could be totally wrong about this and maybe Chark can do more than just go deep but based on the information I have about him I don't see any reason to think that. Open to hearing reasons why Chark might be more than just a deep threat WR.

NFL teams value field stretchers like this for their overall offense higher than I think fantasy owners should despite the relatively high draft position.

 
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Reactions: DAG
I don't see a path to 1A or 1B in PIT for Washington for years, and Ben will be possibly be gone by then.  Anotonio is not young, but his contract ensures he's there for next three seasons.  JuJu looks like the goods.  Bell gets his catches, but may leave after this year.  Like it from football perspective, PIT fans should be thrilled, but as a James Washington fan, it's bleak.  I'll think about him in 3rd round of rook draft because of talent.  

Christian Kirk I go back and forth.  Opportunity looks great.  Fitz on last legs, fresh young QB comes in.  But he doesn't fit WR1 role, so you have to assume that the Cards will be looking to address this position in a big way in the future.  The best case scenario is that the Cards don't get anybody good, and he collects Jarvis Landry compiler stats, because all the other receiving options screw the pooch.  Worst case scenario is that they do what the Bears did this past offseason, and completely restock the fridge.  His long term outlook is so shaky because his short term outlook is so great.  I think he can settle in as a WR3 for fantasy as a WR2/slot guy for AZ, but I think I have him 4th or so at WR.  

Ridley seems safe, as a NFL WR2, and he might even be kind of underrated.  The age thing was pounded into the ground, Julio is older, and he lands in a great offense. Regarding Julio's future, this is his age 29 season, the team will save 12.5 mill by cutting him after this season, and 11.4 mill after 2019.  I'm not suggesting Julio is a likely cut after this season, but it's financially viable if the wheels fall off.  Julio's deal is not a problem, as long as he is still contributing.   His cap numbers for next three years are a bargain for a player of his caliber.  But there's a path to Ridley being a fantasy WR2 for year or two, and then taking over #1 target role for Ryan.  

Sutton as a late 1st rounder, paired with a mid round pick on Daeshawn Hamilton seems like a sweet strategy to me. 

I'm not excited about Gallup, because I'm not excited about WR for Dak Prescott.  I need to look at him more.   

 
Zyphros said:
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Dante Pettis - I had him as DND (do not draft) before the draft.  
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Good stuff Z. But help me understand why you wouldn't draft Pettis. Situation seems perfect, perhaps not as good as Gallup but really nice with Jimmy and the 9ers clearly think he's talented. Maybe he's more of a return/ST guy but it sure seems they expect more than that. 

Do you see him as just a return guy, Hester light? Or do you just mean don't draft at his likely ADP? 

I just took him in the 3rd, as the 11th WR. would you really not have taken him there?

 
squistion said:
Vance McDonald looked like a legit TE:

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/04/05/vance-mcdonald-steelers-jesse-james-xavier-grimble-nfl-draft-tight-ends/stories/201804080024

In the final four games he played during the regular season and the playoffs, McDonald caught 19 passes for 216 yards. In the playoff game against Jacksonville, McDonald caught 10 passes for 112 yards and was targeted a team-high 16 times.
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They also have the outlaw and the rookie Jalen Samuels seems like he may have a role as a receiver as well.

 
I didn't like a lot of what he did as a WR.  He didn't look very quick or explosive along with having what I thought was slow feet.  When I watched him months ago, I remember going through 2 games and saying to myself "this is ridiculous" and I turned it off.  On one hand I probably didn't give him a fair shake, or the games I watched first were not the best but it left a really bad taste in my mouth, and on the other he was drafted high to a great spot, so I could definitely be wrong.  I've been wrong before, and I've been right before.  We will see where this one falls.  

Hester light is a great way to put it.  He's a return guy who happens to play WR as well.  I don't think he fits as a WR.  My rankings are more critical than years past where I'm just staying with my general view of what I had of them before hand.  His draft position is obviously a huge plus so I don't fault someone for having him high.  

 
Re: James Washington someone said he won’t be a week to week starter which is obviously true but with everything being a gamble in FF the reason I won’t drop him in my rankings is just in case AB or JuJu gets injured Washington’s role will dramatically increase imo assuming he’s not a bust of course. 

 
Zyphros said:
Here is all the WR's I have ranked in my top40

Michael Gallup - He's been my favorite and #1 for 4 months now and his landing spot is awesome.  I have to keep him as my #1.  

DJ Moore - I didn't have him very high before the draft but I like the Panthers landing spot so he's now my #2. 

Christian Kirk - My guess is that the Cardinals view him as an outside WR as well as a slot so that enhances his value to me.  I think he and Rosen are prime for each other.  

Anthony Miller - That team is transitioning to a throwing team and I want a piece of that.  He compliments Arob so well.  

Calvin Ridley - Ideal spot that he doesn't have to be a #1 because he isn't a #1.  Volume probably not very high though I'd imagine.

Courtland Sutton - Broncos took 2 WR's which I think says a lot about how much longer DT and Sanders are good for a role.  Never liked him a ton before so this is kind of where a "default ranking" comes into play for me.

Equanimeous St. Brown - 6th round was a blow to his value when I had him at WR3 before the draft.  Landing spot I like a lot so I'm trying to stay true to how good I thought he is.  

James Washington - Never liked him, I'm a Steelers fan, I have to like him now.  Not ideal spot, but maybe with Rudolph there as the potential future, they connect in 2-3 years when Ben/Brown are either gone or over the hill. 

DJ Chark - Ugly spot but not much in competition when it comes to commitment to their WR's.  None of them are very highly regarded or paid highly (unless you count Lee).  

Daeshawn Hamilton - Same notes as Sutton and I think they compliment each other so it kind of just depends on who puts the work in.  I think he has a good shot at unseating Sanders though.

Tre'Quan Smith - Burried on the depth chart at first glance, but there is a clear path to playing time.  Ginn and Coleman don't seem like big obstacles to me.  Meredith maybe. 

Justin Watson - Buccaneers again could be easy path to playing time.  Godwin was about the same type of prospect except drafted earlier, and Humphries isn't much of a challenge, and DeSean Jackson is over the hill.

Cedric Wilson - He was a sleeper guy for me and looks like he'll stay in that area in a good landing spot.  I think he could grow into a Jeremy Maclin type of guy so he's an interesting one.

Dante Pettis - I had him as DND (do not draft) before the draft.  
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I watched St Brown at ND, a lot, and while the mock heads on espn will say his numbers dropped in 2017 due to qb play, some of that was his fault too.  I am putting him as someone I would take with my last pick 5.09.  He did impress me at the combine, and comes from athletic family, but I am not sure the head and/or the heart are into playing football.

Why dont you like Washington?  Are you a pitt alum?

 
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Zyphros said:
Hester light is a great way to put it.  He's a return guy who happens to play WR as well.  I don't think he fits as a WR.  My rankings are more critical than years past where I'm just staying with my general view of what I had of them before hand.  His draft position is obviously a huge plus so I don't fault someone for having him high.  
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I thought the opposite, that he's a wide receiver who returns punts. He's 6'1" with long arms and can go up and get the ball better than anybody on San Francisco's current roster. It's actually impressive that a tall receiver could do so well returning punts showing he also has some elusiveness in the open field, could help on screen passes. Some have raised issue about his speed, but he looks fast on tape to me, though unconfirmed by the combine. (I secretly think the SP doesn't trust him for his lack of combine or pro-day measurements.) He's pretty fluid, so if he works on some of his route techniques he shouldn't have problem getting open. I basically agree with Kyle Shanahan in that Pettis is a swiss army knife receiver:

"I think we can use him sometimes similar to how we use Marquise (Goodwin), if need be," Shanahan said. "I think we can use him inside, similar to how we use Trent, if need be. And I think he has the hands and the toughness, and we can use him similar to Pierre (Garcon). In the meantime, he's going to be a very good punt returner, too. He can help you on all four downs."
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It sounds like there's a chance he doesn't contribute much as a wide receiver year 1, so he has that going against him.

 
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thriftyrocker said:
Of course Pittsburgh is not fluid at all, Washington is unlikely to be more than a NFL WR3 and fantasy flex outside of injury to those above him, but like Westbrook last year, if he flashes potential that's enough. 
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AB or JuJu could get cut, very unlikely though. Or an injury could get Washington on the field, or maybe JuJu isn't who we think he is. We've seen receivers have a good rookie year, which ends up being their best year. I don't think that's the case with JuJu.

But I'm not buying the argument a third string receiver can put up reliable fantasy stats. Correct me if I'm wrong, per my recollecting the last third option to put up even WR2 numbers was Brandon Stokely, the year Peyton Manning threw for 49 TDs. 

 
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mcintyre1 said:
For the record re: Pettis, I believe Waldman had him #1 in his WR rankings for this class pre-draft.
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He also has Courtland Sutton as his 22nd best WR this year amongst a ton of other highly questionable rankings so his opinion isn’t worth much to me 

 
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steelcityman said:
I watched St Brown at ND, a lot, and while the mock heads on espn will say his numbers dropped in 2017 due to qb play, some of that was his fault too.  I am putting him as someone I would take with my last pick 5.09.  He did impress me at the combine, and comes from athletic family, but I am not sure the head and/or the heart are into playing football.

Why dont you like Washington?  Are you a pitt alum?
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1.  I highly doubt St Brown is available to you at 5.09.  He will still go in the 3rd round of most rookie drafts I'd assume

2.  Washington is just sort of meh to me.  He has good hands runs ok routes but mostly ran post corner stuff going deep from what I watched.  Apparently he had a really high success rate at other routes which I found to be a surprise.  He's in a good spot to learn a bit before being forced into action, so I think his return won't be so great on investment.  I'd rather take a shot on other guys and know if they hit/miss early rather than wait 2 years to find out if Washington was worth that hold.  Everyone on my list of those rankings has a chance to impact immediately other than St. Brown.  

 
Raback said:
He also has Courtland Sutton as his 22nd best WR this year amongst a ton of other highly questionable rankings so his opinion isn’t worth much to me 
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So glad I stopped enriching Waldman after his first couple of years.  He seems to be going further and further off the rails.

 
Bronco Billy said:
So glad I stopped enriching Waldman after his first couple of years.  He seems to be going further and further off the rails.
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In defense of Waldman, it has yet to be seen if he's right or wrong. Someone disagreeing with you means 'going off the rails'?

 
cloppbeast said:
In defense of Waldman, it has yet to be seen if he's right or wrong. Someone disagreeing with you means 'going off the rails'?
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No, past performance followed by successive erratic opinions by someone claiming superior judgment and insight year after year do. 

Edited to retract the last statement,  You don’t charge for your opinion so it’s not comparable.

 
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cloppbeast said:
In defense of Waldman, it has yet to be seen if he's right or wrong. Someone disagreeing with you means 'going off the rails'?
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Would you say we have had enough time to decide on Chad Kelly as a higher rated prospect than DeShaun Watson and Mitchell Trubisky? Or Laquon Treadwell as the #1 WR scouted over the past 3 draft classes? Josh Reynolds is #3 on that same list FWIW.  Even if you are pretty confident Sutton will bust, the draft capital on him alone has to make him higher than #22.  Though to be fair he is behind such studs as Byron Pringle, Steven Dunbar and Sam Mentkowski.  

Waldman seems to be going for shock value or completely ignoring factors outside of tape (combine, analytics, etc.).  Either of which has me comfortable completely ignoring his opinion going forward.  

 
Raback said:
Waldman seems to be going for shock value or completely ignoring factors outside of tape (combine, analytics, etc.).  Either of which has me comfortable completely ignoring his opinion going forward.  
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I'd have to say Waldman sides with tape first, over stats and combine. But the thing about tape is, it's in the eye of the beholder. Maybe we can't see the things he does and what he finds important.

Maybe Waldman is going for the hot take, idk. I'm not really standing up for him. But he's a contrarian and not afraid to look stupid. No shame in it. If he sees something in Pettis it might be worth considering. Doesn't mean you have to rank him accordingly but maybe he saw something we didn't. His rankings aren't quite as important as his analysis of a player. Pretty foolish to call him "off the rails" (not you) because he goes out on a limb. 

 
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cloppbeast said:
Pretty foolish to call him "off the rails" (not you) because he goes out on a limb. 
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Have someone read my response to you.  That’s not why I said he has gone off the rails.  Being contrarian is fine.  I’m a contrarian often enough.  It helps if one is wildly contrarian as he is more than enough that the results support the stance, but that often isn’t the case.  And I find it especially egregious when he shows up in a public forum and calls people who disagree with him racists.  

BTW, I’m done with this conversation.  Wrong place and I’m not interested in having a running battle with his believers.  

 
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Bronco Billy said:
Have someone read my response to you.  That’s not why I said he has gone off the rails.  Being contrarian is fine.  I’m a contrarian often enough.  It helps if one is wildly contrarian as he is more than enough that the results support the stance, but that often isn’t the case.  And I find it especially egregious when he shows up in a public forum and calls people who disagree with him racists.  
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Fair enough.

But is that enough to dismiss his take on Pettis? His reputation with his ranks irregardless, he might shine some light in the shadows where some couldn't see. Unfortunately I can't read his stuff so I'm out of luck and can't elaborate. 

As a side note, I happen to like Pettis and Sutton not-so-much, although I wouldn't rank him as low as 22.

 
Waldman brings a unique view on prospects that goes against the standard rankings you see from most. It is useful as he has a scouting system and presents an absolute ton of material to support his determinations. He also mentions how he hates rankings but it is a necessary way to organize. His work has brought a lot of sleepers to my attention and helped me out quite a bit. Nobody is right a 100% of the time and sometimes a player fails due to unforeseen circumstances (work ethic...etc).

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Link? 
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From the RSP, unfortunately, so no link available. He says in his rankings that it doesn't mean he believes Pettis should be the first WR drafted (or even the 6th, 7th, etc), but that he thinks he's a quality late sleeper pick based on his evaluation.

Raback said:
Would you say we have had enough time to decide on Chad Kelly as a higher rated prospect than DeShaun Watson and Mitchell Trubisky? Or Laquon Treadwell as the #1 WR scouted over the past 3 draft classes? Josh Reynolds is #3 on that same list FWIW.  Even if you are pretty confident Sutton will bust, the draft capital on him alone has to make him higher than #22.  Though to be fair he is behind such studs as Byron Pringle, Steven Dunbar and Sam Mentkowski.  

Waldman seems to be going for shock value or completely ignoring factors outside of tape (combine, analytics, etc.).  Either of which has me comfortable completely ignoring his opinion going forward.  
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I agree that Waldman often has guys really highly on his list that I don't really agree with (Treadwell for one, and his WRs ratings in general), but I appreciate the effort he puts in and the explanation he goes through. I would also point out that the low rating for Sutton was pre-draft, so you can't really weight "draft capital" spent on him at that point.

Personally I think the best reason to use Waldman's stuff is to identify good sleeper picks. Tyrell Williams first came on my radar because of a blurb Waldman had in his post-draft RSP that mentioned his crazy pro-day numbers, which I made a note of and kept track of him all along the way, ending up with me owning him as an early waiver add in nearly all of my leagues. I believe (though may be remembering wrong) that he had something similar with Breida as well.

I'd also say that it seems clear Waldman doesn't particularly like this WR class, which I think weighs heavily on Pettis being so highly rated as a value (ie. in a class consisting near exclusively of NFL WR2's or 3's, Pettis could have equal or better value than the more highly rated guys in the class)

 
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mcintyre1 said:
From the RSP, unfortunately, so no link available. He says in his rankings that it doesn't mean he believes Pettis should be the first WR drafted (or even the 6th, 7th, etc), but that he thinks he's a quality late sleeper pick based on his evaluation.

I agree that Waldman often has guys really highly on his list that I don't really agree with (Treadwell for one, and his WRs ratings in general), but I appreciate the effort he puts in and the explanation he goes through. I would also point out that the low rating for Sutton was pre-draft, so you can't really weight "draft capital" spent on him at that point.

Personally I think the best reason to use Waldman's stuff is to identify good sleeper picks. Tyrell Williams first came on my radar because of a blurb Waldman had in his post-draft RSP that mentioned his crazy pro-day numbers, which I made a note of and kept track of him all along the way, ending up with me owning him as an early waiver add in nearly all of my leagues. I believe (though may be remembering wrong) that he had something similar with Breida as well.
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He also has offered strong rationale the other direction, tempering enthusiasm around guys he doesn’t think warrant it.  For example, I think he nailed Forte > McFadden when everyone loved McFadden, was taken 4th overall and Forte taken a round later.

He’s made mistakes, erred in judgment, weighted certain skills disproportionately over others, etc. because there are far more unknown/unquantifiable variables than there are clearly defined ones.  He isn’t to be taken as gospel, but rather an extremely astute analyst who offers a lot of qualitative observations from which the reader then make more informed decisions.  

 
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All of that Waldman stuff aside, I'm having a lot of trouble making my own rankings for this WR class. I'm pretty indifferent on just about all of them, which sucks because I'm in need of WR help in several leagues where I've got multiple picks. My current plans are to go RB in the first round (thankfully I've got nothing later than 1.08) and spend my second rounders on the WRs that end up falling.

In that range, I'd probably say my targets are (in a rough order)

  • Michael Gallup (Opportunity)
  • Dante Pettis (Opportunity)
  • Christian Kirk (Opportunity)
  • Anthony Miller (Love his hands and ability to catch through contact)
  • DJ Chark (Can't coach speed and size?)
  • Tre'quan Smith (I'm not a huge Cam Meredith fan, and I think Smith's blocking could earn him time on the field as the WR2)
  • James Washington (probably not likely to fall due to pre-draft love, but I never really liked him that much)
  • Deon Cain? (don't know much about him, but based on pre-draft rankings and relative lack of competition in Indy, sure)
 
I'm not a Waldman fanboy but I respect the work he puts in, and that he documents it all, so you don't have to live or die by his exact rankings, you can double check his work. 

One of his hits that I remember is that he had Spencer Ware as a top-5 RB from that class when the Seahawks were dumb enough to draft him as a FB. Ware did not get a ton of touches in college given the guys he was sharing with, but he projected his skill-set. Ware isn't the stud we thought he might be for a flash of time but he's clearly a good NFL player and way more than most expected. Waldman did see that. (I don't need a list of his misses to counter this post, like I said I'm not necessarily defending his rankings--just his process, and the value of knowing what that process IS. And sometimes it leads to hits when he's contrarian).

 
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