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2017 offensive lines and resulting fantasy impact (1 Viewer)

FF Ninja

Footballguy
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-line-units-heading-into-the-2017-season/

Good article. Several weeks before training camp starts, so something to think about/discuss here while relevant news is scarce. Anyone have any other sources or opinions on these lines? 

Here are some things that come to mind as I look at the rankings from PFF:

2. Cleveland Browns - I like the direction this team is going. I think Crowell is in for a huge season. If Kessler or Kizer emerges, I like Coleman's prospects this year, too.

5. Chicago Bears - I'm not a Howard fan, but if this ranking is accurate, his odds of holding up to his ADP might be better than I anticipated.

7. Oakland Raiders - such a better line than Beast Mode was behind the last few years of his career. I think he's a great redraft target.

8. Green Bay Packers - I didn't realize their line was so good. I think Jamaal Williams, the likely goal line back, is an intriguing play.

9. Dallas Cowboys - still a good ranking, but it'll be interesting to see Zeke and Dak behind a non-premier unit.

10. Buffalo Bills - Tyrod really could've used Maclin, but he'll be a guy to watch since he's in a new offense with a decent line in front of him.

24. Detroit Lions - they seem to be discounting the signing of Cyrus Kouandjio as a stop gap LT until Decker gets back.

28. New York Giants - I wanted no part of this backfield before I read this.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'd been thinking Martin would be a great value grab, but this has me worried a little bit.

31. Cincinnati Bengals - I knew this was coming due to the players they lost in free agency and is the primary reason I'm staying away from Mixon.

32. Seattle Seahawks - 3 way RBBC with a terrible line? Too much risk, too little upside.

 
Nice inputs.  I agree with Crowell's potential this year behind that line.  It will be pretty interesting if the Packers can get a running game going...it would drastically increase Rodgers potential as well. (not that he needs much help, but what the heck)

 
Good stuff. I have to wonder if some of these teams near the bottom will overcome such OL problems. I have to think that Tampa and Seattle will have successful offenses this year. But a list like this certainly gives pause.

 
14. Minnesota Vikings

Truthfully, I’m surprised myself at the Vikings’ ranking here. Realistically, they shored their line up enough to where there aren’t any glaring weaknesses, but at the same time there’s little in the way of high level play either. They finished 29th in our end-of-year 2016 rankings so this would be quite the bump up.
I will believe it when I see it.  It is not as if bringing high priced free agents helped the Vikings last year.  I still believe people are being overly optimistic about this line's talent level and depth. 

 
Tampa's line should have JR Sweezy this year. He was signed as a free agent but did not play in 2016. He's a good to great run blocker. The pass blocking may be suspect, but there are some maulers in the run game. 

Also, it's amazing what multiple options in the receiving department can do for a line. By the end of 2016 Winston had Evans and nothing. Jameis shouldn't have to hold the ball as long this year waiting for Evans to get open with the additions of Jackson and Howard. On 3rd down Sims being back should help as well.

I wouldn't shy away from Martin because of this ranking. He's going to be a nice fantasy option and will come at a discount because of the suspension. 

 
28. New York Giants - I wanted no part of this backfield before I read this.
I really think people are missing the boat on Perkins.  His traits match that situation so well.

1) yeah, the line sucks. That's why they need a running back who can pass block.  With the late start (UCLA graduation) and multiple veteran pass blockers in his way, they didn't start giving Perkins double digit carries right away, but when they did, he responded well, and it will keep him on the field a lot. 

2) The same learning curve applies to gallman, who had pass blocking listed as a concern in all of his pre draft scouting reports, and will not be ready to play right away.  This is Perkins backfield. 

3) Perkins strengths are his vision, elusiveness, change of direction.. things which favor making something out of nothing.  

Example 1

Example 2

When the line collapses he can make the play on his own. 

4) The giants are going to be in 3 wide with Perkins and a tight end on most downs.  He'll never face 8 in the box and will see a lot of 6 - which means he should get to the second level fairly often.  

5) Perkins can catch the ball well too.  He had 15 receptions and 112 carries in a part time role last year.  He should get 30+ as a starter.

6) He's also their de facto goal line back.  You might think the giants are pass heavy inside the 10, but on 52 plays last year they ran it 25 times. Perkins should get a lot of those. 

7) The giants, knowing what kind of back he was, drafted him, expressed excitement about him as their starter of three future, increased his workload throughout his rookie year, didn't draft or sign any of the available big names, and named him their starter long before they had to.  

8) The Giants ranked 30th in the league in rushing last year with 3.6 yards per attempt.  That was

181 carries by Jennings (3.3)

30 carries by darkwaa (3.7)

17 carries by Rainey (3.7)

112 carries by Perkins (4.1)

So while it's easy to say the giants run game was a mess, it was a lot messier when they had bad running backs carrying the ball.  Note the above also includes 30 carries by Vereen (4.8) - he has a career average of 4.3. 

I dont remember ever seeing a projected feature back for a contending team go this late in fantasy drafts, but now is the time to scoop him up. 

 
The article has some good analysis, but it's hard to gauge how any given team's OL gels when the games matter. Some seemingly weak OLs may turn out to be strong, and vice versa.

Using OL as a key barometer may result on undervaluing (or overvaluing) a guy when the talent and situation are (aren't) there.

Just my two cents.

 
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21. Los Angeles Chargers

Is it possible that Chargers won’t be dreadful once again on their offensive line? It’s been 10 straight years that San Diego has had its offensive line grade out below average, but it’s possible that the move to Los Angeles will lift the curse. On paper, they should be massively upgraded with Russell Okung, Forrest Lamp, and Dan Feeney all added this offseason.
Compare this to PFF 2016 final OL rankings:

31. San Diego Chargers (29)
Top overall grade: C Matt Slauson, 81.2 (No. 19)

Top pass-blocking grade: RG D.J. Fluker, 75.9 (No. 50)

Top run-blocking grade: C Matt Slauson, 76.7 (No. 10)

Spare a thought for Philip Rivers, who has to watch the other two big QBs from the 2004 draft class steering playoff-bound teams and contending for a championship while he deals with one of the worst offensive lines in the game. Center Matt Slauson was the best part of this offensive line, and his play was average, at best. This line couldn’t pass protect, surrendering 238 total QB pressures for the second-lowest pass-blocking efficiency mark in the league, and its run blocking was no better. Of 1,510 rushing yards as a team, 906 of them came after contact, with the line generating an average of just 1.5 yards before contact per carry.
This is a significant jump, and I think it is warranted.

  • The Chargers dropped terrible starters LT Dunlap, LG Franklin, and RG Fluker in the offseason, signed LT Okung, and drafted PFF's #1 G (Lamp) and #3 G (Feeney).
  • 2016 3rd (C/G Tuerk) and 7th (G Clark) round picks missed all of 2016 due to injury but should be healthy.
  • 2016 UDFA Pulley got some experience last season and seems to have the confidence of the coaching staff this offseason as a potential starter.
  • Okung will start at LT and should be a solid upgrade. Slauson will start at LG or C, and Lamp should start at RG. The remaining IOL spot will be a battle between Tuerk, Feeney, Pulley, and Clark. Overall, these 4 spots should be significantly upgraded.
  • That leaves RT Barksdale. In 2016, PFF gave him a 48.2 grade (#58 T overall), which was a huge dropoff from his grades from 2013-2015, which were all between 75.2 and 81.8. So there is hope that he can bounce back in 2017. If he does, the only weakness of this OL would seem to be the lack of experience in the IOL aside from Slauson.
OK, so why will it matter? It could be a huge deal for Rivers.

  • This article shows the PFF OL ratings for the past 8 seasons for 16 QBs, including Rivers. Unsurprisingly, Rivers' OL has been the worst of the 16 QBs profiled, and it really isn't close. The thing to note is that there have been 3 seasons when his OL graded out higher than #26: 2009 (#21), 2010 (#15), and 2013 (#18). He was top 9 in ppg and top 7 in total points in each of those seasons. And now he arguably has a stronger set of targets than in any of those seasons.
  • This PFF article addresses how much pressure Rivers has been under and how that has affected his performance. The author uses this information as justification for ranking Rivers as his #8 fantasy QB and notes the value he represents given his #14 ADP. The author also states the following:
The unit ranked only 21st in PFF’s recent offensive line rankings, though those rankings were purely grades-based and didn’t account for helpful rookies. In other words, the Chargers might have the 21st-ranked line in 2017, but that seems like the floor, not necessarily the most likely outcome.
It also seems like the improved OL should be a boost for Gordon.

  • As great as his 2016 performance seemed, he still averaged just 3.9 ypc (#29) and had only 3 games with 100+ rushing yards, despite averaging 21 carries per game in the 12 games before he was hurt. This link shows some more relevant NFL ranks for Gordon in 2016: 1.1 YAC per touch (#35), -0.2 production premium (#38), and 21.4% juke rate (#44). These figures seem to show that he mainly gets what is blocked and would really benefit from better run blocking. This improved OL should provide that for him.
  • That same link also shows that he was #4 in breakaway runs (15+ yard runs), with 15, and #18 in breakaway run rate, at 5.9%. PFR shows him with 17 such runs, so there is a discrepancy. Regardless, on those 17 runs, he totaled 405 rushing yards, meaning he totaled just 592 rushing yards on his other 237 carries (2.5 ypc).  That seems to show two things: (1) he needs better blocking to help him on his non-breakaway runs, and (2) better blocking might enable him to break away more often and maximize his home run ability.
  • IMO this shows Gordon is a value, especially when combined with the change to HC Lynn, who is known for strong running offenses. I will say, I think it is possible his receiving production drops off a bit if the rest of Rivers' targets stay healthier than last year.
 
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Nice article. Some things that stood out for me:

"Fifth might seem steep for Chicago, but at the moment there isn’t a better interior offensive line in the NFL." I disagree. I would put the Raider's interior line ahead of the Bears.

Packers lost 2 starters off their line to FA, which is a bit concerning. 

Lions loosing Decker is a big deal. I think the run game take a big hit and Ebron may be asked to block more.

I think the Texans rank is too low. I think Martin makes a big impact. I think the Buccs line ranking is also way too low. 

 
Donnybrook said:
14. Minnesota Vikings

Truthfully, I’m surprised myself at the Vikings’ ranking here. Realistically, they shored their line up enough to where there aren’t any glaring weaknesses, but at the same time there’s little in the way of high level play either. They finished 29th in our end-of-year 2016 rankings so this would be quite the bump up.
I will believe it when I see it.  It is not as if bringing high priced free agents helped the Vikings last year.  I still believe people are being overly optimistic about this line's talent level and depth. 
The Vikings starters in week 1 last season were LT Kalil, LG Boone, C Berger, RG Fusco, RT Andre Smith. That group combined to miss 32 games, including 26 games by the 2 tackles.

They signed LT Reiff and RT Remmers in free agency and drafted Elflein, last year's Rimington trophy winner as the best C in college football. Elflein should start at C immediately, which seems to make it likely that Berger will move to RG. Berger and Boone were both good last year, and the other 3 spots should all be upgraded.

Is this enough to jump from 29 to 14 in the rankings? Who can say with such precision. But it certainly seems like it is enough for significant improvement as long as they don't suffer multiple major injuries again.

 
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bostonfred said:
I really think people are missing the boat on Perkins.  His traits match that situation so well.

I dont remember ever seeing a projected feature back for a contending team go this late in fantasy drafts, but now is the time to scoop him up. 
I appreciate the attempted sales job, but Perkins just seems like the type of back that is good enough to begin the season as a starter, but mediocre enough that he could lose his job if he misses a week or two. And I definitely don't think he's a long term starter from a keeper/dynasty perspective. I disagree that he's the type of back who can consistently create something out of nothing. Your second example is a gaping hole that I'd hope any back would hit.

With Vereen still on the roster I think he's limited. Kind of like Riddick hurts Abdullah, except I think Abdullah is much more talented than Perkins. It's probably a very unpopular opinion, but I think a 28 year old Vereen is probably just as good, if not better than Perkins as an overall RB. Obviously Perkins is getting first crack and Vereen had some injuries last year, but if Perkins sputters out of the gate (maybe due to back blocking, maybe due to being a JAG, maybe a combination) then I could see this quickly devolving into last year's RBBC mess.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/shane-vereen/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/paul-perkins/

I agree that he won't see a stacked box very often, but like you mentioned, that's partially due to all the 3WR sets. You think Shepard blocks as well as a TE? I know Marshall is a good blocker downfield, but I'm not sure about OBJ and Shepard. 

As for seeing a projected feature back going this late, his ADP is RB28. I think Crowell was going ~RB40 around this time last year. Gore has been in the 30's the past couple years. I think people see him as a replaceable RB who is featured only in name. Confidence that he'll be getting 15 touches per game in weeks 14-16 is understandably very low.

 
zamboni said:
The article has some good analysis, but it's hard to gauge how any given team's OL gels when the games matter. Some seemingly weak OLs may turn out to be strong, and vice versa.

Using OL as a key barometer may result on undervaluing (or overvaluing) a guy when the talent and situation are (aren't) there.

Just my two cents.
I wasn't advocating using OL to drastically alter your rankings. Just saying it's another perspective to consider. We all give it some thought when analyzing players, but I thought this article might help us quantify things even if a few of the rankings seem off by a few spots.

 
FF Ninja said:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-line-units-heading-into-the-2017-season/

Good article. Several weeks before training camp starts, so something to think about/discuss here while relevant news is scarce. Anyone have any other sources or opinions on these lines? 

Here are some things that come to mind as I look at the rankings from PFF:

2. Cleveland Browns - I like the direction this team is going. I think Crowell is in for a huge season. If Kessler or Kizer emerges, I like Coleman's prospects this year, too.

5. Chicago Bears - I'm not a Howard fan, but if this ranking is accurate, his odds of holding up to his ADP might be better than I anticipated.

7. Oakland Raiders - such a better line than Beast Mode was behind the last few years of his career. I think he's a great redraft target.

8. Green Bay Packers - I didn't realize their line was so good. I think Jamaal Williams, the likely goal line back, is an intriguing play.

9. Dallas Cowboys - still a good ranking, but it'll be interesting to see Zeke and Dak behind a non-premier unit.

10. Buffalo Bills - Tyrod really could've used Maclin, but he'll be a guy to watch since he's in a new offense with a decent line in front of him.

24. Detroit Lions - they seem to be discounting the signing of Cyrus Kouandjio as a stop gap LT until Decker gets back.

28. New York Giants - I wanted no part of this backfield before I read this.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'd been thinking Martin would be a great value grab, but this has me worried a little bit.

31. Cincinnati Bengals - I knew this was coming due to the players they lost in free agency and is the primary reason I'm staying away from Mixon.

32. Seattle Seahawks - 3 way RBBC with a terrible line? Too much risk, too little upside.
What is the story with Cyrus? Why did the Bills cut him?

 
What is the story with Cyrus? Why did the Bills cut him?
I am not clear on that. Maybe they got tired of the injuries? Either way, if he can last until Decker gets back (still an unknown, could miss as few as 4 games, I think) then the Lions' OL shouldn't be nearly as bad as this article indicates.

 
Saints at no. 16 is disappointing, but supposedly it's because of Armstead's injury. And PFF doesn't mention it but Unger's injury won't be resolved until it is.

Does anyone know how to find offensive line rankings by player and position? For instance, who are the top 10 rated centers and that kind of thing. Thanks.

 
Saints at no. 16 is disappointing, but supposedly it's because of Armstead's injury. And PFF doesn't mention it but Unger's injury won't be resolved until it is.

Does anyone know how to find offensive line rankings by player and position? For instance, who are the top 10 rated centers and that kind of thing. Thanks.
PFF has 2016 (and previous season) grades. Not aware of any forward looking rankings.

 
I don't see it happening in Cleveland. The last time I was certain their offense and O-line would produce a huge season was when everyone was drafting Duke Johnson so high. Not getting burned again, especially since Crowell has a high cost and I could easily see him being a major bust.

 
Thanks, off hand do you know if they sort by position? I will check it out, I just need it for something I'm doing, just thought I'd ask people who might be more familiar with the site. Thanks.
Fantasy Football Index has a grid that shows each position and gives each player a relative grade.

 
The article has some good analysis, but it's hard to gauge how any given team's OL gels when the games matter. Some seemingly weak OLs may turn out to be strong, and vice versa.

Using OL as a key barometer may result on undervaluing (or overvaluing) a guy when the talent and situation are (aren't) there.

Just my two cents.
Agreed. On the other hand, ignoring the OL as a factor can get you burned. Just ask those that drafted Gurley LY. (Guilty!)

I think the happy compromise seems to be using the OL as as a metric to rank players within a tier. As example, say you have a tier consisting of Murray, Howard and Ajayi. You might want to consider line play as the differentiator in ranking them. 

 
Count me in with the group that is skeptical of the Lions rating. There's no doubt losing Decker, their best o-lineman, is a major blow but they had the same issue last year from Day 1 with a revolving door at RT with replacement level players and they were fine, RB injuries withstanding. The writer is discounting Graham big time too. He surprised last year and played at a league average level as a rookie at LG. It wasn't until Swanson was hurt that he got shifted over to center and looked awful. The writer is hung up on Graham's time at center last year and he won't be playing center again this year barring injury to Swanson again. Between the 4 regular starters you have 2 above average guys in Lang and Wagner plus 2 young guys playing at league average level in Graham and Swanson who should continue to get better as they gain more experience. If Cyrus can play at least at above replacement player level the Lion o-line should be fine. They also have some decent depth this year in Robinson, Dahl and Tomlinson in the event of injury that they were lacking last year. Pre-injury to Decker, the Lions o-line was probably somewhere in the bottom of the Top 10. Without him they're somewhere in the middle of the pack range, not in the mid 20's.

 
Good insights Lionsfan. AS long as they can perform above a level of the Rams line LY, they wont be a liability. Preseason and training camp will better info about Cryus.

 
Was curious what the impact was last year so I looked at the Pre-Season Week 3 rankings of the Top 5 and Bottom 5 OLs

  • #1: Dallas Cowboys - Dak and Zeke both went off. Zeke averaged 5.1 YPC
  • #2: Green Bay Packers - Rodgers went insane. Lacy and Ty Montgomery were both over 5.1 YPC but didn't run enough to make impact
  • #3: Carolina Panthers - Implosion all around. Cam came back to Earth hard and JStew averaged just 3.8 YPC
  • #4: Cleveland Browns - QBs were forgettable. Crowell and Duke averaged 4.8 and 4.9 YPC respectively
  • #5: Washington Redskins - Cousins had a sold year. Kelley and Jones averaged 4.2 and 4.6 YPC respectively
  • #28: Jacksonville Jaguars - Bortles put up an okay year. Run game was atrocious with Yeldon at 3.6 and Ivory at 3.8 YPC
  • #29: Denver Broncos - Siemien put up a quietly solid year all things considered. Booker struggled with a 3.5 YPC while CJ had a 4.0
  • #30: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Winston improved a bit while Muscle Hamster fell off the planet. Rodgers and Barber put up decent 4.3 and 4.1 YPCs
  • #31: New England Patriots - Brady was bonkers as usual. Blount showed his age with just a 3.9 YPC and Lewis/White averaged 4.4 and 4.3 YPC
  • #32: Seattle Seahawks - Solid if underwhelming year by Russell Wilson. Michael put up a 4.0 YPC while Rawls struggled mightily with a 3.2 YPC
Blount was a great Fantasy option due to sheer volume. The elite OLs tend to allow for higher YPC, which makes sense, while the lower OLs tend to struggle more often than not in that area. Minnesota was ranked 8th yet McKinnon averaged a woeful 3.4 YPC and Asiata was 3.3. Buffalo was ranked 12th yet McCoy had a 5.4 YPC while Gillislee had a 5.7 YPC.

Also worth noting that LA's run blocking was cited as improving yet Gurley had a 3.2 YPC. NO had "concerns about pass pro" but Drew put up another 5,200+/37 TD year.

Not sure how much stock to place in this. I know and understand it's a piece of the puzzle and in a tie, I may push Player X a smidge higher but I don't know that I can reasonably say how much value a line can add/take away given injuries during the year, players improving/struggling, etc.

 
I will believe it when I see it.  It is not as if bringing high priced free agents helped the Vikings last year.  I still believe people are being overly optimistic about this line's talent level and depth. 
Maybe, but, I just want to say watching the games real time, CJ Clemmings had the worst performance of any lineman I've EVER watched ..People literally came unblocked most of the time.  It was ridiculous and painful to watch.   Relegating him to a pure back up IS half the issue...

 
Was curious what the impact was last year so I looked at the Pre-Season Week 3 rankings of the Top 5 and Bottom 5 OLs

  • #1: Dallas Cowboys - Dak and Zeke both went off. Zeke averaged 5.1 YPC
  • #2: Green Bay Packers - Rodgers went insane. Lacy and Ty Montgomery were both over 5.1 YPC but didn't run enough to make impact
  • #3: Carolina Panthers - Implosion all around. Cam came back to Earth hard and JStew averaged just 3.8 YPC
  • #4: Cleveland Browns - QBs were forgettable. Crowell and Duke averaged 4.8 and 4.9 YPC respectively
  • #5: Washington Redskins - Cousins had a sold year. Kelley and Jones averaged 4.2 and 4.6 YPC respectively
  • #28: Jacksonville Jaguars - Bortles put up an okay year. Run game was atrocious with Yeldon at 3.6 and Ivory at 3.8 YPC
  • #29: Denver Broncos - Siemien put up a quietly solid year all things considered. Booker struggled with a 3.5 YPC while CJ had a 4.0
  • #30: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Winston improved a bit while Muscle Hamster fell off the planet. Rodgers and Barber put up decent 4.3 and 4.1 YPCs
  • #31: New England Patriots - Brady was bonkers as usual. Blount showed his age with just a 3.9 YPC and Lewis/White averaged 4.4 and 4.3 YPC
  • #32: Seattle Seahawks - Solid if underwhelming year by Russell Wilson. Michael put up a 4.0 YPC while Rawls struggled mightily with a 3.2 YPC
Blount was a great Fantasy option due to sheer volume. The elite OLs tend to allow for higher YPC, which makes sense, while the lower OLs tend to struggle more often than not in that area. Minnesota was ranked 8th yet McKinnon averaged a woeful 3.4 YPC and Asiata was 3.3. Buffalo was ranked 12th yet McCoy had a 5.4 YPC while Gillislee had a 5.7 YPC.

Also worth noting that LA's run blocking was cited as improving yet Gurley had a 3.2 YPC. NO had "concerns about pass pro" but Drew put up another 5,200+/37 TD year.

Not sure how much stock to place in this. I know and understand it's a piece of the puzzle and in a tie, I may push Player X a smidge higher but I don't know that I can reasonably say how much value a line can add/take away given injuries during the year, players improving/struggling, etc.
This is a good look backwards, however, I think that injuries impacted a lot of the changes. It would probably be better to look at the final OL rankings to see how the OL impacted performance. The above analysis would be like looking at preseason WR corps rankings and comparing it to end of season QB performance. So using an example of Rivers, he lost Keenan week 1 and Benjamin had a PCL injury basically all season long, so it wouldn't be fair to Rivers to compare his performance against his preseason WR rankings. We'd need to look at what actually happened. 

But keep in mind these PFF ratings merge pass blocking and run blocking, also things like QB, scheme, WR/TE blocking, and score/game flow also impact RB performance. Personally, I think it can be more important as a red flag (reason to stay away) than a reason to draft someone. Like I want no part of Mixon this year due solely to the OL. I feel like most people are totally ignoring this factor when jumping on his bandwagon. 

 
Can anyone point me to something more recent on O line rankings? I thought FBG had rankings in years past, but I can't seem to find a recent article on it.

 
Good but dated rankings...will there be an update?? JMHO Giants look way too high. Raiders too low now that Penn is back.

 
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