POLL CLOSED Player #46 Community Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

With 10 of 60 votes, Donte Moncrief takes the ninth pick of the fourth round, 45th overall (Beating Jordy by 1 and Benjamin by 2 and Hill by 3).  Every other option received at least one vote.    That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754960-player-45-community-dynasty-rankings/

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

I have the following outstanding nominations:

Hunter Henry - 1

Golden Tate - .5

I will add Henry this round.  

Time to pick #46

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5

4.3 Stefon Diggs

4.4 Lamar Miller

4.5 Corey Coleman

4.6 (Tie) Doug Baldwin

              Rookie Pick 1.6

4.8 LeSean McCoy

4.9 Donte Moncreif

Voted for Wilson, but I nominate Mariota.

Switched my vote from Wilson to Martavis Bryant. 

This is a swing for the fences. He's spent his year away coaching, working out and having a kid. In my brain I can write a nice feel good redemption story and he has shown production. 

spider321 said:

Voted for Wilson, but I nominate Mariota.

Click to expand...

I could get behind this but voted for Tyreek. 

Has cam really fallen this far?  Seems he'd be one of the next batch. 

Voted Wilson but will nominate Golden Tate. Guy is criminally undervalued.

Still voting for Jordy Nelson.

I would also like to recommend Golden Tate be added to the poll. He is pretty close to Crabtree (who is on the list) and Baldwin (who has already been voted in).

Maybe it's chasing that 18 point PPR PPG run rate, but give me Martavis Bryant here. 

JPeso said:

Maybe it's chasing that 18 point PPR PPG run rate, but give me Martavis Bryant here. 

Click to expand...

If I consider his 2014 season and playoff games it is a sample size of 24 games and 15.5 PPG. He had a lot of rushing yards and scored a TD in playoff games.

This puts Bryant in the same range as Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall have been over the last 3 seasons.

I think the sample size is too small, but those are some strong numbers.

I chose other for M. Bryant

Biabreakable said:

If I consider his 2014 season and playoff games it is a sample size of 24 games and 15.5 PPG. He had a lot of rushing yards and scored a TD in playoff games.

This puts Bryant in the same range as Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall have been over the last 3 seasons.

I think the sample size is too small, but those are some strong numbers.

Click to expand...

And after I saw that, I said to myself that he has upside to grow in to more. He can make big, big plays. 

Oh man. The hype train is officially starting again. A month ago people here were saying they wouldn't pay a 2nd or even a 3rd. Now we're into 4th round start up chat again. 

JPeso said:

And after I saw that, I said to myself that he has upside to grow in to more. He can make big, big plays. 

Click to expand...

Yeah I think he is a bit stronger in a standard scoring league than PPR (which this poll is for). Rookie numbers from 2014 are something I would like to throw out, but since the sample is already small, just try to use what data there is.

Poor catch percentage 56% but good yards per target at 9.2

The rushing yards (90 in the playoffs) makes 139 rushing yards or 5.7 rushing yards per game (of course most of this occured in one playoff game).

Never been a fan of Bryant myself who seemed to coast too much in college but I can't think of a better situation for him than the one he is in. Brown to draw attention away and Ben who can get him the ball on the deep shots.

I think he has been drafted at a higher price point that he is worth the last couple seasons, but the big plays certainly were there and could be again in 2017.

Biabreakable said:

Yeah I think he is a bit stronger in a standard scoring league than PPR (which this poll is for). Rookie numbers from 2014 are something I would like to throw out, but since the sample is already small, just try to use what data there is.

Poor catch percentage 56% but good yards per target at 9.2

The rushing yards (90 in the playoffs) makes 139 rushing yards or 5.7 rushing yards per game (of course most of this occured in one playoff game).

Never been a fan of Bryant myself who seemed to coast too much in college but I can't think of a better situation for him than the one he is in. Brown to draw attention away and Ben who can get him the ball on the deep shots.

I think he has been drafted at a higher price point that he is worth the last couple seasons, but the big plays certainly were there and could be again in 2017.

Click to expand...

Ben took those shots this year but the guys couldn't make the plays. Marty b reminds me of moss a bit, but I have a hard time going rd4 startup at this juncture. Bold moves can win leagues though. 

I decided to look at Kelvin Benjamin since I have never owned him in any league nor have I ever targeted him in a trade.  and really didn't know much about him.  After his rookie year I remember thinking he was going to be a stud, but then the lost 2015 season happened and he generally dropped off my radar.

At first blush, his 2016 season looked worse than his rookie year since he fewer catches by 10, fewer yards by 67 and fewer TDs by 2.

63-118-941-14.9-50-7     (2016)

73-146-1,008-13.8-9    (2014)

But then I looked deeper and saw that his yards per target jumped more than a full point although his catch rate only increased a little (3% from 50 to 53%).  I also saw that his rookie year had some very weird games... he had 7 games with double digit targets, which normally means excellent points especially in PPR, but in 4 of those seven he had 11 PPR points or less.  (3 of the 4 were below 10 PPR).

I guess i am starting to convince myself that maybe he is following the old time career path of a rookie year learning the ropes and a second year 2016 because of the 2015 injury) where you show that you are about to "get it" followed by a 3rd year explosion.

Again this is a new realization for me with almost no research, so feel free to critique.

Concerning Tyreek Hill, I think some out there are look scornfully at the votes he gets when 1.7 is on the board (in the dynasty trade thread people are talking about 1.12 or even a 2d for Hill).  However, I do not think you appreciate what I will call his market volatility. 

Ask yourself what happens if Hill gets 100 yards in two of the first three games... (even those of you who like him the least have to see that as a strong possibility considering how he ended 2016)... if that happens many if not most that have reservations on him will start to believe and his market value will jump to the 1.3 range if not higher.  (The same could be said of M. Bryant)  By comparison, if Jordy does the exact same, his market value will remain unchanged.

We should have statistical factor to reflect market volatility... something like Upward market volatility # of 15 or more point games in a row or out of 4 to cause a significant change in market value and Downward market volatility= number of less than 10 point games in a row or out of 4 to significantly affect market value.

I think I would rate Hill as a 2 (upward) and a 3 (downward) player. (lower is better for upward, higher is better for downward)

I think I would rate Nelson as a 4 (upward) and a 3 (downward) player. (This means that I think that even if Jordy starts the year off with 3 straight 15 point week or higher, it will not change his market value significantly, but that four in a row would.  I think that if Jordy has 3 of 4 low point weeks his value will drop significantly, but 2 of 4 will not change things much.)

In terms of market volatility value I would say M Bryant beats them both with a 2 (up) and a 4 (down) (folks are going to be fine if he starts slow because he has not played in so long, but if he starts hot (I think some may argue his up value is 1) his value will jump.

Thoughts?

This poll is now closed.  Jordy Nelson won with 14 of 62 votes.  The next poll is available here:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/755034-player-47-community-dynasty-rankings/

@Brisco54

Benjamin had 1 week (Week 2) where he put up over 11% or his yards and 28% of his TDs. For PPR it was basically 15% of his whole year in one game. After that he never had a game with double digit catches or broke 100 yards or had multiple TDs. Which conflicts with the idea of showing improvement. 

For Hill, he's only had one year of production and so much of it was big plays. A lot of uncertainty with him. Assuming he does pan out as a player, is he going to have boom/bust production a la Desean Jackson? Does Andy Reid use him enough or limit his touches like he has with Charles and Kelce at times?

To draft for trades (market value) is dangerous because usually there's only a handful of people in a league so selling opportunities are limited. If you're talking about just his market value if he has 2 big games to start the season vs if Nelson does the same, then you're essentially just double counting. The only reason Nelson and Hill are in the same tier or range is because of their potential/age. That potential market value is already baked into opinions/rankings.