2017 rookie pick 1.04 post combine (Closed) (1 Viewer)

This poll is to find out where rookie players stack up after the combine.

My goal is to run these polls up until the NFL and see how far we can get. Hopefully a top 25 at least, but if polls go fast maybe we can get deeper than that. Will have to see how this goes.

There are two polls, one for typical 12 team leagues 20 roster spots, PPR or standard scoring. Although there are some differences between these two scoring formats, I don't think the information gained by that difference is much, the order should be about the same except that WR should be valued more in PPR leagues.

The second poll is for 2 QB leagues as I want to see where the QBs are valued compared to other players in this format.

Please suggest players you think should be on the next set of polls or changes you might make to the players currently available in the poll.

I am pulling names from Mike Clays nice top 100 list here. But I will add new players based on the communities recommendations before just adding the next player from Mikes list.

Discussion very welcome.

Results

1.01 Leonard Fournette 73% and 48% at 52 votes

1.02 Dalvin Cook 65% and 43.75% at 84 votes

1.03 Corey Davis 45% and 23.4% at 68 votes

1.04 Mike Williams 40% and 23% at 80 votes

I had a feeling McCaffery would not do as well and it appears he is off to the early lead here. I think McCaffery will settle into 5/6 when its said and done. I still prefer Mixon to McCaffery.

WheelsUp said:

I had a feeling McCaffery would not do as well and it appears he is off to the early lead here. I think McCaffery will settle into 5/6 when its said and done. I still prefer Mixon to McCaffery.

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Smart

WheelsUp said:

I had a feeling McCaffery would not do as well and it appears he is off to the early lead here. I think McCaffery will settle into 5/6 when its said and done. I still prefer Mixon to McCaffery.

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Until Mixon is a 1st-3rd round draft selection then it's 6 players minimum above him in a rookie draft IMO.  

Do you think fantasy owners care what round he is taken in? If he goes to a team that projects him to be in comp for starting spot, my fantasy team dont care what round he was drafted with that talent.

WheelsUp said:

Do you think fantasy owners care what round he is taken in? If he goes to a team that projects him to be in comp for starting spot, my fantasy team dont care what round he was drafted with that talent.

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I think fantasy owners should care about a players draft position, because draft position is the most predictive data point there is to indicate a players chances of being a productive NFL and fantasy player.

That said there have been too many successful RB recently who were drafted in the 5th round (Howard and Ajayi last year). So I have not heard many arguments about a RB needing to be 3rd round pick or higher to have a good chance of success the way it was argued even just a couple years ago.. 

Mixon carries risks that are not related to his abilities on the football field. If you understand why the player fell in the draft, that can help your decision as well. I see Mixon carrying some risk of suspension to be concerned about, but that risk isn't quite as bad as a player who fell in the draft because of health concerns (Jay Ajayi) or other reasons. It is still a risk though. The draft position will give you some sense of what level of risk the NFL teams consider him to be.

The earlier he is drafted, the less concerned you should be about the off the field stuff, because of the confidence shown by the teams investment in him. If Mixon is drafted in the first round for example, that would indicate that at least the team who drafted him is unconcerned about Mixon's off the field issues and does not consider him much of a risk. If he is drafted in the second round, still a positive sign. If he is drafted in the 3rd round I think you could say teams had some concerns, as he is likely at least a second round prospect based on talent and what he has done in college. Then so on if Mixon ends up being drafted in the 4th to 7th round, that will indicate that teams see him as a higher risk than if a team had drafted him earlier.

So I think you should care about where he is drafted, because it tells you how much an NFL team is willing to risk on him.

Ajayi 5th, Miller 4th, Ware 6th, D Johnson 3rd, D. Murray 3rd, Howard 5th, Charles 3rd, Freeman 4th, ect.
I can name all the high picks that busted when it comes to RB is you want but I dont want a typing cramp.
The round means nothing, the landing spot is everything. If Mixon goes in 3rd round which is the baseline since that was used as the example, it doesnt affect his value at all. If he goes undrafted, I will concede it does. Even 4th round, he is still an elite talent, we know the issue here. Him slapping a woman, not an injury.

WheelsUp said:

Ajayi 5th, Miller 4th, Ware 6th, D Johnson 3rd, D. Murray 3rd, Howard 5th, Charles 3rd, Freeman 4th, ect.
I can name all the high picks that busted when it comes to RB is you want but I dont want a typing cramp.
The round means nothing, the landing spot is everything. If Mixon goes in 3rd round which is the baseline since that was used as the example, it doesnt affect his value at all. If he goes undrafted, I will concede it does. Even 4th round, he is still an elite talent, we know the issue here. Him slapping a woman, not an injury.

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Obviously, everyone knew this 2 months ago. If he's picked early though it means the team is going to play him and give him lots of opportunity. 

Can you put links to the previous round in the body of the post?  I guess I missed the 1.03 and am curious about it.

This one's all Mixon for me.

Hankmoody said:

Can you put links to the previous round in the body of the post?  I guess I missed the 1.03 and am curious about it.

This one's all Mixon for me.

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https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754709-2017-rookie-pick-103-post-combine-closed/

If Watson goes to a well coached team he's pm probably my pick in 2qb leagues.  Otherwise, Williams. 

I would think, due to the depth in this year's NFL Draft (not just for RB but overall), Mixon going even as low as the 4th-5th rounds might not be as much an indictment as it would have been in prior years.

Spike said:

I would think, due to the depth in this year's NFL Draft (not just for RB but overall), Mixon going even as low as the 4th-5th rounds might not be as much an indictment as it would have been in prior years.

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All the rumors in Michigan are that the Lions are enamored with this kid. Even if they don't take him with their pick in the 2nd I could see them trading back into the late 2nd or early 3rd to get him.

msudaisy26 said:

All the rumors in Michigan are that the Lions are enamored with this kid. Even if they don't take him with their pick in the 2nd I could see them trading back into the late 2nd or early 3rd to get him.

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Good info!  (And thanks for sharing.)  It's this sort of (somewhat) insider information that makes the Shark Pool such a great resource.

Mixon behind what looks to be an up-and-coming offensive line sounds very promising.

This is rumor season for what its worth, but side note thats not insider info. Thats just someone saying rumors.

You're kidding yourself if you think he goes past the third round.

Maybe it's just been me, but I've been burned by too many character question marks recently.  J. Gordon, M. Bryant, J. Blackmon.  Not necessarily out of college but the same idea.  A guy rotting on your bench whose worth nothing because he's been suspended.  If the NFL deems him worthy of a 2nd chance in the top3 rounds then I have no problem taking that risk.  But until that happens (if it does at all), then I'm not taking him in the top6 draft picks behind Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Corey Davis, JuJu, or Howard.  That's my comfort level at least, and even if he is picked in the 2nd or 3rd then I'd likely have him at 5.  

petekrum said:

You're kidding yourself if you think he goes past the third round first half of round 2

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Fixed

Zyphros said:

Maybe it's just been me, but I've been burned by too many character question marks recently.  J. Gordon, M. Bryant, J. Blackmon.  Not necessarily out of college but the same idea.  A guy rotting on your bench whose worth nothing because he's been suspended.  If the NFL deems him worthy of a 2nd chance in the top3 rounds then I have no problem taking that risk.  But until that happens (if it does at all), then I'm not taking him in the top6 draft picks behind Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Corey Davis, JuJu, or Howard.  That's my comfort level at least, and even if he is picked in the 2nd or 3rd then I'd likely have him at 5.  

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Get get your logic on this one. I wasn't really looking at it like that. Would the team that takes him change your opinion at all? From a character/suspension aspect, not a scheme or depth chart aspect. 

Borden said:

Get get your logic on this one. I wasn't really looking at it like that. Would the team that takes him change your opinion at all? From a character/suspension aspect, not a scheme or depth chart aspect. 

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Absolutely that has an effect on how I'd value him as well.  Ideally I'm speaking of good landing spots for them all.  Based on talent alone, I like 1 guy ahead of Mixon (Corey Davis), so no baggage then he'd be my 1.01 right now (no Corey Davis combine/pro day).  I'm basing his ranking for myself on comfort level of X organization when (if) he gets drafted.  So if he goes in the 1st then obviously that says they're very comfortable, 2nd a little less but still fairly confident and so on.  Team situation always changes things.  

Zyphros said:

Absolutely that has an effect on how I'd value him as well.  Ideally I'm speaking of good landing spots for them all.  Based on talent alone, I like 1 guy ahead of Mixon (Corey Davis), so no baggage then he'd be my 1.01 right now (no Corey Davis combine/pro day).  I'm basing his ranking for myself on comfort level of X organization when (if) he gets drafted.  So if he goes in the 1st then obviously that says they're very comfortable, 2nd a little less but still fairly confident and so on.  Team situation always changes things.  

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Sorry I didn't explain what I was asking very well. 

Let's say he goes in the third. Would a team like the Bengals or Browns that have shown a willingness to draft character concern guys mean less than a team that has is less likely to draft those guys. Say Carolina. 

At 72 votes Mike Williams has a pretty strong lead with 40% of the vote. McCaffrey has 32% and Mixon 24%

In the 2 QB poll it isn't as clear however, which I find interesting. 1/3 of the voters do not play in the 2QB format but for the ones who do Mike Williams and McCaffrey are tied with 21% of the vote each. Mixon has 10% of the vote and 2 of the QBs have votes further diluting support for these two in this format. 

Hopefully a winner emerges soon otherwise I will likely just call it a tie and move on if it doesn't.

Dr. Brew said:

petekrum said:

You're kidding yourself if you think he goes past the third round first half of round 2

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We'll see.  If he goes that high I'll jump on board.  But he seems to be at best the 3rd back, in a pretty deep draft.  I wouldn't draft him until the 3rd and that's being somewhat forgiving. 

I'd agree with most of that but I really don't see him slipping past round 2. If this was a shallower draft maybe I'm more right. Who knows but he's certainly not going past pound 3

Borden said:

Sorry I didn't explain what I was asking very well. 

Let's say he goes in the third. Would a team like the Bengals or Browns that have shown a willingness to draft character concern guys mean less than a team that has is less likely to draft those guys. Say Carolina. 

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At this point I'm simply unprepared to answer that question.  I think it would boil down to coaching and if that player, Mixon in this case, is willing to play for a certain type of coach and the personalities match.  Coaches who are widely respected as players coaches like Hue Jackson makes the fit a little more interesting than someone like Mike Zimmer who doesn't have that reputation (or maybe he does, and I'm just ignorant).  

Now see I have picks 3 and 6 in one league.  These things might make me roll the dice and take Davis 3 and hope Mixon makes it to me.  I suppose the NFL Draft will impact this, but as of today I think that's how I may play it.  And I HATE drafting against my gut.  I'd rather overpay on MIxon and settle for Williams and be wrong than watch Mixon go ballistic on 1.05's team.

Hankmoody said:

Now see I have picks 3 and 6 in one league.  These things might make me roll the dice and take Davis 3 and hope Mixon makes it to me.  I suppose the NFL Draft will impact this, but as of today I think that's how I may play it.  And I HATE drafting against my gut.  I'd rather overpay on MIxon and settle for Williams and be wrong than watch Mixon go ballistic on 1.05's team.

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If Mixon goes to a team with little competition for carries, I'd take him at three were I you.

petekrum said:

If Mixon goes to a team with little competition for carries, I'd take him at three were I you.

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Well I have him #2 overall so that's kind of been the plan the whole time.  But it's tempting to try to sneak him in at 6, because I think it's a lot less likely Davis is there than Mixon.  Although with Davis missing his pro day now, maybe people will knock him down a rung or two.  I currently have it Cook, Mixon, Fournette, Davis so getting them both would be awesome.

Hankmoody said:

Well I have him #2 overall so that's kind of been the plan the whole time.  But it's tempting to try to sneak him in at 6, because I think it's a lot less likely Davis is there than Mixon.  Although with Davis missing his pro day now, maybe people will knock him down a rung or two.  I currently have it Cook, Mixon, Fournette, Davis so getting them both would be awesome.

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Maybe you could mock who you figured you'd get for the two pairings and then decide.

Two scenarios:

Scenario #1 - 1.03 is Mixon and 1.06 is Williams.

Scenario #2 - 1.03 is Davis and 1.06 is Williams.

I know (from experience) that it's better for me to maybe take the guy I really want a pick or two early than watch the sonofo##### one pick before me take him and then I'm ruined my whole draft.