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POLL CLOSED Community Dynasty Rankings Player #34 (1 Viewer)

Who would you rank 34th in a 12 team dynasty league, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DEF PPR with standard sc

  • Davante Adams

    Votes: 11 18.0%

  • Jordan Reed

    Votes: 11 18.0%

  • DeMaryius Thomas

    Votes: 9 14.8%

  • Rookie Pick 1.5

    Votes: 5 8.2%

  • Derrick Henry

    Votes: 6 9.8%

  • Jordy Nelson

    Votes: 4 6.6%

  • Corey Coleman

    Votes: 2 3.3%

  • Doug Baldwin

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Stefon Diggs

    Votes: 4 6.6%

  • Lesean McCoy

    Votes: 3 4.9%

  • Lamar Miller

    Votes: 5 8.2%

  • Donate Moncrief

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Other (Place name/pick in reply so I can add it, and tell me you clicked this button)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    61
B

Brisco54

Footballguy
Carlos Hyde takes the ninth pick of the 3d round (33d overall), with 13 of 56.  Everyone  received votes this round.  That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754669-community-dynasty-rankings-player-33/

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

Lamar Miller received 2 nominations and is added this round.

Time to pick #34

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde
 
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Can we get one of these polls for post combine rookies only? I would start one, but my java sucks.

 
Went Henry here. You might have to wait 1-2 years, but think he's a legit RB1 for those who are willing to be patient.

 
Ack88 said:
Went Henry here. You might have to wait 1-2 years, but think he's a legit RB1 for those who are willing to be patient.
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I went Adams. IMO, right now you can get a legit WR1, and the future WR1 of what could be the final chapter of Rodgers' career. No need to wait 1-2 years. I can't understand the hype around Henry. I honestly think he may amount to nothing; TEN can draft him down the depth chart as early as this season. Tre Mason and Andre Ellington are classic examples. Guys who looked like they had great dynasty potential but were drafted off the team practically. Not saying this will happen to Henry but it's as likely as him turning into a legit RB1. 

 
Dr. Brew said:
I went Adams. IMO, right now you can get a legit WR1, and the future WR1 of what could be the final chapter of Rodgers' career. No need to wait 1-2 years. I can't understand the hype around Henry. I honestly think he may amount to nothing; TEN can draft him down the depth chart as early as this season. Tre Mason and Andre Ellington are classic examples. Guys who looked like they had great dynasty potential but were drafted off the team practically. Not saying this will happen to Henry but it's as likely as him turning into a legit RB1. 
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I'm not voting for Henry yet, but the Titans just spent a second round pick on Henry in the last draft. I doubt they even draft another back let alone spending a high enough pick on one to unseat Henry. Henry is a talent. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I'm not voting for Henry yet, but the Titans just spent a second round pick on Henry in the last draft. I doubt they even draft another back let alone spending a high enough pick on one to unseat Henry. Henry is a talent. 
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TJ Yeldon was a 2nd round draft pick in 2015. The following season they signed Chris Ivory as an UFA

Bishop Sankey was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft by the Tennessee Titans. They went on to draft a RB the following year round 5, Henry round 2 last year, and signed Murray. So not only did they draft another RB after they spent such a high pick on Sankey, they did so the following TWO seasons AND signed the top FA RB that same offseason that they spent another 2nd round pick on

Giovani Bernard was drafted in the 2nd round in 2013. CIN proceeded to spend a 2nd round pick on Hill the following draft (both of them are a talent IMO). Rumor is CIN is interested in Mixon as well this draft... 

Christine Michael was drafted round 2 in 2013. SEA then traded him away 2 seasons later for a 7th round selection

Isaiah Pead was drafted in 2012 round 2. The proceeded to draft a RB the next 3 seasons (Round 5, Round 3, Round 1)

Lamichael James was drafted in 2012 round 2. Buried on the depth chart for his entire career.

Just saying... it happens. Even happened with these Titans. The round you draft someone means nothing. Sure they have a high pick invested, but that doesn't stop teams from moving onto a better talent if available. 

 
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Dr. Brew said:
TJ Yeldon was a 2nd round draft pick in 2015. The following season they signed Chris Ivory as an UFA

Bishop Sankey was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft by the Tennessee Titans. They went on to draft a RB the following year round 5, Henry round 2 last year, and signed Murray

Giovani Bernard was drafted in the 2nd round in 2013. CIN proceeded to spend a 2nd round pick on Hill the following draft

Christine Michael was drafted round 2 in 2013. SEA then traded him away 2 seasons later for a 7th round selection

Isaiah Pead was drafted in 2012 round 2. The proceeded to draft a RB the next 3 seasons (Round 5, Round 3, Round 1)

Lamichael James was drafted in 2012 round 2. Buried on the depth chart for his entire career.

Just saying... it happens. Even happened with these Titans. The round you draft someone means nothing. Sure they have a high pick invested, but that doesn't stop teams from moving onto a better talent if available. 
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The only really relevant example on that list is Gio/Hill. The late round picks are more depth picks and I wouldn't rule that out here. Henry also showed capable unlike Sankey, Pead and James who all showed quickly they didn't have what it takes.

I'm not simply saying "if a team drafts a RB in Round 2 then they will never take a RB again". I'm saying a team like the Titans that has Murray and a young RB they like enough to have drafted in early round 2 last season is likely not going to down another high pick at the position. Of course I could be wrong about that.

Thing is at this point we can play the "what if" game with everyone on this list. As some one else said in an earlier thread in this exercise - we'd all be surprised to go back a year or two and see the players drafted in start ups at this point.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The only really relevant example on that list is Gio/Hill. The late round picks are more depth picks and I wouldn't rule that out here. Henry also showed capable unlike Sankey, Pead and James who all showed quickly they didn't have what it takes.

I'm not simply saying "if a team drafts a RB in Round 2 then they will never take a RB again". I'm saying a team like the Titans that has Murray and a young RB they like enough to have drafted in early round 2 last season is likely not going to down another high pick at the position. Of course I could be wrong about that.

Thing is at this point we can play the "what if" game with everyone on this list. As some one else said in an earlier thread in this exercise - we'd all be surprised to go back a year or two and see the players drafted in start ups at this point.
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I agree completely with that, however I think if someone were to fall to the titans and they felt like that would give them a two headed monster post-murray maybe they'd jump at it. TEN has holes and RB isn't one of them. I just think when Murray moves on TEN may look to draft a RB within the ifrst 3 rounds to protect themselves in the event Henry doesn't pan out.

I guess I look at this and I feel Henry has a sort of risk a lot of other players available (RBs even) don't have at this point

 
Dr. Brew said:
I agree completely with that, however I think if someone were to fall to the titans and they felt like that would give them a two headed monster post-murray maybe they'd jump at it. TEN has holes and RB isn't one of them. I just think when Murray moves on TEN may look to draft a RB within the ifrst 3 rounds to protect themselves in the event Henry doesn't pan out.

I guess I look at this and I feel Henry has a sort of risk a lot of other players available (RBs even) don't have at this point
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What did you see from him last year that would indicate he won't pan out? When given the chance he looked the part. So while anything can happen, I see Henry being the man no later than next year. I expect Murray to break down. His production dipped late last year and I expect TEN will get Henry more involved to keep Murray fresh. 

All this said  I voted Adams and wouldn't touch Henry til 4th round at earliest.

 
jeaton6 said:
What did you see from him last year that would indicate he won't pan out? When given the chance he looked the part. So while anything can happen, I see Henry being the man no later than next year. I expect Murray to break down. His production dipped late last year and I expect TEN will get Henry more involved to keep Murray fresh. 

All this said  I voted Adams and wouldn't touch Henry til 4th round at earliest.
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Of all the backups in the league Henry is the most intriguing. So it's not what I've seen or haven't seen. I just think there's a lot of value given to a guy who has played in largely situational packages/plays and had some success. There's another RB who did the same thing... Devontae Bookoer. Before CJ went down he looked like a beast. Once he was the bellcow he turned into a pumpkin. Henry could very well be the same kind of player if given the full work load.

We can disagree about him I guess. I'm probably wrong. I just feel like if I'm starting up a dynasty I want players that can help me somewhat now but also have a plan for the future. People often say that they look out about 3 years in dynasty. In 3 years is Lamar Miller going to be non-existent? I would value him over Henry, especially given HOU's upgraded QB situation (addition by subtraction at this point, but they are not done there). I think drafting Henry leaves too many risks. If you're worried about your long term solution at RB there are a lot of guys you can take later. 

FWIW I'd have taken Miller over Hyde as well. Maybe I'm completely missing it, but I just don't have him valued high at all. I'd draft Henry well before him. 

 
Dr. Brew said:
Of all the backups in the league Henry is the most intriguing. So it's not what I've seen or haven't seen. I just think there's a lot of value given to a guy who has played in largely situational packages/plays and had some success. There's another RB who did the same thing... Devontae Bookoer. Before CJ went down he looked like a beast. Once he was the bellcow he turned into a pumpkin. Henry could very well be the same kind of player if given the full work load.

We can disagree about him I guess. I'm probably wrong. I just feel like if I'm starting up a dynasty I want players that can help me somewhat now but also have a plan for the future. People often say that they look out about 3 years in dynasty. In 3 years is Lamar Miller going to be non-existent? I would value him over Henry, especially given HOU's upgraded QB situation (addition by subtraction at this point, but they are not done there). I think drafting Henry leaves too many risks. If you're worried about your long term solution at RB there are a lot of guys you can take later. 

FWIW I'd have taken Miller over Hyde as well. Maybe I'm completely missing it, but I just don't have him valued high at all. I'd draft Henry well before him. 
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I prefer Miller to Hyde and Henry as well. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I prefer Miller to Hyde and Henry as well. 
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This I agree with. I think Miller needs to be added to the list. I don't see many in existing leagues or startups valuing Hyde over Miller. My guess is when Miller is added he will be selected by consensus within a pick or 2 of having been added.

 
jeaton6 said:
This I agree with. I think Miller needs to be added to the list. I don't see many in existing leagues or startups valuing Hyde over Miller. My guess is when Miller is added he will be selected by consensus within a pick or 2 of having been added.
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He was added   ;)  He is on this list above. Even has a vote

 
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Dr. Brew said:
I agree completely with that, however I think if someone were to fall to the titans and they felt like that would give them a two headed monster post-murray maybe they'd jump at it. TEN has holes and RB isn't one of them. I just think when Murray moves on TEN may look to draft a RB within the ifrst 3 rounds to protect themselves in the event Henry doesn't pan out.

I guess I look at this and I feel Henry has a sort of risk a lot of other players available (RBs even) don't have at this point
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It looks like the rb1 in that offense is pretty valuable even if there is a good rb2. 

 
It's crazy to me to think Demaryius Thomas, Jordan reed and Davante Adams are leading the votes ahead of Derrick Henry who turns 23 this year.  

Yeah, you have to wait for Henry, but he looks like a stud talent in an offense that just generated top 5 rb numbers. He turns 23 this year and should give you a half dozen very good years ahead.  I get that he's a risky pick, but the upside is worth it. 

The three concerns people had about Henry coming out were whether his game translated to the NFL level, whether he could catch the ball, and how he would do after an enormous workload to win the Heisman.  He's looked really good when he played, he had one of the best rb receptions of the year last year, and he should be fine after a year plus removed from that heavy workload.  

My concerns with Adams - 75/997/12, 64/784/14, 91/1287/12. Those are the career years of Davante Adams, James Jones and Randall Cobb. 50/483/1, 50/890/8, 80/954/8. Those are each of their second best years.  I don't want to tie up my third round pick in a guy who isn't even a top two receiver on his own team.  What happens when Green Bay drafts another wr? Or if some guy like geronimo keeps improving?  Is Adams irreplaceable now after one season of nearly 1000 yards? 

Is there risk that Henry will become a starter?  I suppose.  Is there risk that Jordan reed has played his last full season of nfl football? Absolutely.  And I think the risk of the latter is higher.  Even if he plays, Reed really only had one very good season.  His other 3 years he has 1650 yards and 7 tds.  Yes, a lot of that is because he was injured, but if you are taking a tight end in the third round and have to take another guy at the position relatively early you're wasting equity at a position where you only want to be starting one guy every week.  Reed is the kind of player you add to an already stacked team to put you over the top, not a guy you draft early to build around.

Demaryius Thomas turns 30 this year.  He was a borderline wr1/wr2 this past year with 90 catches (good!) for 1083 yards (not bad!) and 5 touchdowns (not good).  I absolutely believe he can improve on that this year, and I believe in his talent and that he will have a really good season again someday.  But is it this year?   If they stick with their current qbs, it's not looking great.  If he had another 1000 yard, 5 td season at 30, how many more years do you have left to get elite production from your third round pick?  Are you content to take what you can get until he retires? Do you think his exit value goes up this year playing with those qbs and entering his age 31 season?  

All the guys here have warts. Henry's is that he has to wait. I much prefer waiting for a guy I expect to perform well to taking a guy who might never perform well again.

 
bostonfred said:
It's crazy to me to think Demaryius Thomas, Jordan reed and Davante Adams are leading the votes ahead of Derrick Henry who turns 23 this year.  

Yeah, you have to wait for Henry, but he looks like a stud talent in an offense that just generated top 5 rb numbers. He turns 23 this year and should give you a half dozen very good years ahead.  I get that he's a risky pick, but the upside is worth it. 

The three concerns people had about Henry coming out were whether his game translated to the NFL level, whether he could catch the ball, and how he would do after an enormous workload to win the Heisman.  He's looked really good when he played, he had one of the best rb receptions of the year last year, and he should be fine after a year plus removed from that heavy workload.  

My concerns with Adams - 75/997/12, 64/784/14, 91/1287/12. Those are the career years of Davante Adams, James Jones and Randall Cobb. 50/483/1, 50/890/8, 80/954/8. Those are each of their second best years.  I don't want to tie up my third round pick in a guy who isn't even a top two receiver on his own team.  What happens when Green Bay drafts another wr? Or if some guy like geronimo keeps improving?  Is Adams irreplaceable now after one season of nearly 1000 yards? 

Is there risk that Henry will become a starter?  I suppose.  Is there risk that Jordan reed has played his last full season of nfl football? Absolutely.  And I think the risk of the latter is higher.  Even if he plays, Reed really only had one very good season.  His other 3 years he has 1650 yards and 7 tds.  Yes, a lot of that is because he was injured, but if you are taking a tight end in the third round and have to take another guy at the position relatively early you're wasting equity at a position where you only want to be starting one guy every week.  Reed is the kind of player you add to an already stacked team to put you over the top, not a guy you draft early to build around.

Demaryius Thomas turns 30 this year.  He was a borderline wr1/wr2 this past year with 90 catches (good!) for 1083 yards (not bad!) and 5 touchdowns (not good).  I absolutely believe he can improve on that this year, and I believe in his talent and that he will have a really good season again someday.  But is it this year?   If they stick with their current qbs, it's not looking great.  If he had another 1000 yard, 5 td season at 30, how many more years do you have left to get elite production from your third round pick?  Are you content to take what you can get until he retires? Do you think his exit value goes up this year playing with those qbs and entering his age 31 season?  

All the guys here have warts. Henry's is that he has to wait. I much prefer waiting for a guy I expect to perform well to taking a guy who might never perform well again.
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I love this. It gets you thinking. Many times we get trapped in our own brains and we are certain we must be right, but it's always great to see the other side of the coin.. Especially when someone is saying "it's crazy to think he's still there" when I've just said "it's crazy he's getting votes." It's what I love the most about these forums. I may come across as condescending but it's because I firmly believe in what I'm saying. I'm not trying to argue or be right, I just want to get my point across. In general I am a pretty reasonable person. If you offer some reasonable points I may change my opinion. 

I will say, we agree completely on Thomas. I have no idea why he's getting so many votes. I had him on my team last year and he was one of those guys you hated to have but couldn't get rid of him because no one else wanted him. I cringed when I drafted him in my redraft. I would value Jordy ahead of Thomas just given the QB throwing him the ball. They are about the same age. 

Adams stands to move into the WR1 role pretty quickly. Cobb has a high salary this year and even higher next year. If he doesn't restructure he is likely cut after this season. Jordy likely has 1-2 years left as a WR1. Behind those 2, there's Adams and noone else. I would fully expect Adams to move into the WR1 role and Geronimo may turn into a decent WR3. I don't see him as a starter much less a WR1. He stretches the field and that's it. He doesn't make the tough catches. I fully expect GB to draft a WR sometime within picks 2-5 this year. I think it would be smart of them to do so in planning for life after Cobb and Jordy. That doesn't hurt Adams value. I believe it helps his value. He might be WR3 on his team but he gets more looks than Cobb. 

You might swing me over to support Henry a bit more. I agree he showed a lot last year, but like I said many RBs can be successful as part time/situational players and then crumble when given the full workload. For Henry the jury's out. 

16 WRs have been taken so far. And Adams has top 10 potential as early as this season. 

7 RBs have been taken. There is a lot of value left on the board

IMO the drop off from Adams to the next best WR is much greater than Henry to the next best available RB

 
Dr. Brew said:
Adams stands to move into the WR1 role pretty quickly. Cobb has a high salary this year and even higher next year. If he doesn't restructure he is likely cut after this season. Jordy likely has 1-2 years left as a WR1. Behind those 2, there's Adams and noone else. I would fully expect Adams to move into the WR1 role and Geronimo may turn into a decent WR3. I don't see him as a starter much less a WR1. He stretches the field and that's it. He doesn't make the tough catches. I fully expect GB to draft a WR sometime within picks 2-5 this year. I think it would be smart of them to do so in planning for life after Cobb and Jordy. That doesn't hurt Adams value. I believe it helps his value. He might be WR3 on his team but he gets more looks than Cobb. 
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Thanks for the good response. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=davad20156

Here's a nice article about Davante Adams after jordy went down in 2015. It shows a Dell flawed receiver.  Adams ended up being a huge bust.  The perception of Adams as a player was that he just wasn't that good.  A nearly 1000 yard season didn't change that that much for me. 

Did Adams get better in 2016? Did he play better, or did Rodgers?  What I'm interested in is whether Adams is an improving player and one that the Packers won't try to replace. 

The good news is he's young.  So was Cobb, and he hasn't replicated the magic from his career year.  Young does not always mean ascending.  

The offense in Green Bay is going to look a lot different this year.  Rodgers might not repeat his near mvp numbers. The running backs and tight ends will probably get a bigger peeve if the pie, with both positions improving a lot this year. Jordy is going to get his. If there's any decline in passing numbers, I'd expect it to come from Cobb and Adams.  And Cobb might actually rebound. If he does, the dream of Adams becoming the de facto wr1 is in life support. 

To me, Adams is a nice upside play but a big gamble.  Forget Henry, I don't see how he's going ahead of 1.5. At least with 1.5 you should get a guy whose talent you believe in. With Adams, i feel like you're just drafting "the guy Rodgers is throwing to", and hoping that that remains true for a long time when it might not really even be true this year.  

 
Reed again. Probably would have voted to add Moncrief next poll but he has been voted in as other so no need to cast that vote. 

 
Here's a fun one btw

Wr1 has 289/3179/13 the last 3 years 

Wr2 has 280/3300/14 the last 3 years.  

Wr1 is Jarvis Landry who was taken at 3.5. Wr2 turns 29 this year and isn't even on the poll yet (not do I really want him to be). No, it's not Edelman. 

 
bostonfred said:
Thanks for the good response. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=davad20156

Here's a nice article about Davante Adams after jordy went down in 2015. It shows a Dell flawed receiver.  Adams ended up being a huge bust.  The perception of Adams as a player was that he just wasn't that good.  A nearly 1000 yard season didn't change that that much for me. 

Did Adams get better in 2016? Did he play better, or did Rodgers?  What I'm interested in is whether Adams is an improving player and one that the Packers won't try to replace. 

The good news is he's young.  So was Cobb, and he hasn't replicated the magic from his career year.  Young does not always mean ascending.  

The offense in Green Bay is going to look a lot different this year.  Rodgers might not repeat his near mvp numbers. The running backs and tight ends will probably get a bigger peeve if the pie, with both positions improving a lot this year. Jordy is going to get his. If there's any decline in passing numbers, I'd expect it to come from Cobb and Adams.  And Cobb might actually rebound. If he does, the dream of Adams becoming the de facto wr1 is in life support. 

To me, Adams is a nice upside play but a big gamble.  Forget Henry, I don't see how he's going ahead of 1.5. At least with 1.5 you should get a guy whose talent you believe in. With Adams, i feel like you're just drafting "the guy Rodgers is throwing to", and hoping that that remains true for a long time when it might not really even be true this year.  
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It's been reported Adams played through a pretty badly injured ankle in 2015, which had a major impact and should partially excuse how badly he failed in his second season. 

That being said, I'm with you on the 1.05 over Adams. I'm more in the camp that Adams is a solid player who puts up numbers because Rodgers is amazing and the Packers run game was non-existent and I doubt his ability to ever be the #1 guy. 

One of the things that's been kind of glossed over in the discussion about Adams, Cobb, Nelson and the future of the Green Bay WR corp is that Thompson has never been shy about grabbing WRs in the 2nd/3rd round. He's done it a bunch and we could easily see him do it again at least once in the next year or two. Maybe their answer ends up being that they ride it out for the next two years with Jordy and Cobb and try to fill in with a cheap draft pick instead of paying $10M a year for a solid but unspectacular guy like Adams. If they snag a Chris Godwin or JuJu Smith or someone like that next month in the late 2nd, it's going to hurt Adams' value. 

 
bostonfred said:
Here's a fun one btw

Wr1 has 289/3179/13 the last 3 years 

Wr2 has 280/3300/14 the last 3 years.  

Wr1 is Jarvis Landry who was taken at 3.5. Wr2 turns 29 this year and isn't even on the poll yet (not do I really want him to be). No, it's not Edelman. 
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Crabtree?

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Crabtree?
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I'd guess Golden Tate. Crabtree catches more TDs but hasn't been putting up 95 catch seasons.

And if you're putting up 3-year stats for guys under 30, Emmanuel Sanders has some big numbers over the past 3. 

 
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@Dan HinderyTate is correct.  And it's not just 3 year averages. Last year

Landry 94/1138/4

Tate 91/1077/4

The numbers for sanders

Sanders 79/1032/5

Sanders 3 year 256/3668/20

But this is his age 30 season and his numbers with manning have obviously dipped a bit.

 
Dan Hindery said:
It's been reported Adams played through a pretty badly injured ankle in 2015, which had a major impact and should partially excuse how badly he failed in his second season. 

That being said, I'm with you on the 1.05 over Adams. I'm more in the camp that Adams is a solid player who puts up numbers because Rodgers is amazing and the Packers run game was non-existent and I doubt his ability to ever be the #1 guy. 

One of the things that's been kind of glossed over in the discussion about Adams, Cobb, Nelson and the future of the Green Bay WR corp is that Thompson has never been shy about grabbing WRs in the 2nd/3rd round. He's done it a bunch and we could easily see him do it again at least once in the next year or two. Maybe their answer ends up being that they ride it out for the next two years with Jordy and Cobb and try to fill in with a cheap draft pick instead of paying $10M a year for a solid but unspectacular guy like Adams. If they snag a Chris Godwin or JuJu Smith or someone like that next month in the late 2nd, it's going to hurt Adams' value. 
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I was a huge naysayer when it came to Adams, but last year he really turned things around and came up big. There was even a drinking game  that pointed out how Adams was notorious for dropping the ball. You know it's bad when it becomes a joke. He turned me around though with his play. I think he has good potential and I'm definitely a fan seeing him actually try to get better. 

The first part, I would completely agree with, but isn't that the case with practically all of GB's WRs (Jennings, Jones were terrible once they left)? How is NE any different? Brady makes his WRs look like super stars. Wes Welker went from slot bum in Miami to perennial probowler. However you bring up a good point with the last paragraph there. That is 100% feasible. Adams may chase money and Thompson can go with 2 different WRs drafted round 2/3 and let Rodgers make them good. GB never pays their WRs insane amounts of money. I think Jordy is making 11 mil and Cobb 9 mil this season. That's the most I think we've had at WR1/2 in a very long time. Might even predate Rodgers. So I can see how that hurts Adams' value in dynasty. If he goes somewhere else he's a decent WR2, nothing to great. 

 
bostonfred said:
It's crazy to me to think Demaryius Thomas, Jordan reed and Davante Adams are leading the votes ahead of Derrick Henry who turns 23 this year.  

Yeah, you have to wait for Henry, but he looks like a stud talent in an offense that just generated top 5 rb numbers. He turns 23 this year and should give you a half dozen very good years ahead.  I get that he's a risky pick, but the upside is worth it. 

The three concerns people had about Henry coming out were whether his game translated to the NFL level, whether he could catch the ball, and how he would do after an enormous workload to win the Heisman.  He's looked really good when he played, he had one of the best rb receptions of the year last year, and he should be fine after a year plus removed from that heavy workload.  

My concerns with Adams - 75/997/12, 64/784/14, 91/1287/12. Those are the career years of Davante Adams, James Jones and Randall Cobb. 50/483/1, 50/890/8, 80/954/8. Those are each of their second best years.  I don't want to tie up my third round pick in a guy who isn't even a top two receiver on his own team.  What happens when Green Bay drafts another wr? Or if some guy like geronimo keeps improving?  Is Adams irreplaceable now after one season of nearly 1000 yards? 

Is there risk that Henry will become a starter?  I suppose.  Is there risk that Jordan reed has played his last full season of nfl football? Absolutely.  And I think the risk of the latter is higher.  Even if he plays, Reed really only had one very good season.  His other 3 years he has 1650 yards and 7 tds.  Yes, a lot of that is because he was injured, but if you are taking a tight end in the third round and have to take another guy at the position relatively early you're wasting equity at a position where you only want to be starting one guy every week.  Reed is the kind of player you add to an already stacked team to put you over the top, not a guy you draft early to build around.

Demaryius Thomas turns 30 this year.  He was a borderline wr1/wr2 this past year with 90 catches (good!) for 1083 yards (not bad!) and 5 touchdowns (not good).  I absolutely believe he can improve on that this year, and I believe in his talent and that he will have a really good season again someday.  But is it this year?   If they stick with their current qbs, it's not looking great.  If he had another 1000 yard, 5 td season at 30, how many more years do you have left to get elite production from your third round pick?  Are you content to take what you can get until he retires? Do you think his exit value goes up this year playing with those qbs and entering his age 31 season?  

All the guys here have warts. Henry's is that he has to wait. I much prefer waiting for a guy I expect to perform well to taking a guy who might never perform well again.
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I fully  agree DT is a declining asset but he's as safe a high end WR2 as you'll get. The people who are voting for him here are buying that safety plus upside if Denver gets a QB plus 3-5 years. They are more win-now type teams. The people buying Henry are buying on the potential and likely looking towards the future. Different strokes for different folks at this stage of the draft. Guaranteed production or potential production. Pick your poison. 

 
Dan Hindery said:
It's been reported Adams played through a pretty badly injured ankle in 2015, which had a major impact and should partially excuse how badly he failed in his second season. 

That being said, I'm with you on the 1.05 over Adams. I'm more in the camp that Adams is a solid player who puts up numbers because Rodgers is amazing and the Packers run game was non-existent and I doubt his ability to ever be the #1 guy. 

One of the things that's been kind of glossed over in the discussion about Adams, Cobb, Nelson and the future of the Green Bay WR corp is that Thompson has never been shy about grabbing WRs in the 2nd/3rd round. He's done it a bunch and we could easily see him do it again at least once in the next year or two. Maybe their answer ends up being that they ride it out for the next two years with Jordy and Cobb and try to fill in with a cheap draft pick instead of paying $10M a year for a solid but unspectacular guy like Adams. If they snag a Chris Godwin or JuJu Smith or someone like that next month in the late 2nd, it's going to hurt Adams' value. 
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Thanks for joining us Dan!  

 
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