JohnnyU
Footballguy
If I own them and need RBs, that is one thing, but I always get the feeling RBs like this are replaceable on a moments notice, so I wouldn't be buying in dynasty leagues.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Future 2nd, I don’t think anyone would want to move a current 2nd given drafts are about to start and rankings haven’t really settled. You might see a player you really like slip to that mid-late 2nd round pick that you might otherwise trade for one of these one year fill-in’s.
kutta
Footballguy
Their value is still not great, so I’d wait at least a few weeks in and see if they are putting up numbers. Then you can trade to a RB-needy team and probably get much more value than today.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
12 team PPR. Start 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE. Total of 4 between RB/WR.
I want to throw out some trades to see where you have these offers:
Team A gives: D. Cook, R. Gronk, 2022 2nd (late), 2022 3rd (late)
Team B gives: Wentz, JuJu, 1,01, 1,09, 2022 1st (late)
Team A gives: T. Hill
Team B gives: 1.01, 1.09, 2022 1st (late), 2022 2nd (late)
I want to throw out some trades to see where you have these offers:
Team A gives: D. Cook, R. Gronk, 2022 2nd (late), 2022 3rd (late)
Team B gives: Wentz, JuJu, 1,01, 1,09, 2022 1st (late)
Team A gives: T. Hill
Team B gives: 1.01, 1.09, 2022 1st (late), 2022 2nd (late)
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Depends on rosters but I think of you really want either Cook or Hill then a slight overpay (what this is) is what you need to do to get then.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Both Teams very competitive. Team A back to back champs. Team B 2nd or 3rd best team past couple years.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Easier to respond if you say Team x got rather than gives. I’ll take the good picks in both trades
DropKick
Footballguy
Obviously, age is a major factor in dynasty valuations. Nevertheless, if there were no Aaron Rodgers related question marks, I think Adams would be the hands-down favorite to lead all fantasy receivers over the next 2-3 seasons. That level of consistency and productivity is rare. He can be a difference maker. He may not be a viable option for the next decade but his value is undeniable. I can see him ranked above Jefferson for those that emphasize the short to intermediate horizon more so than the long haul. After all, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.
I can probably identify the 4-5 owners in my league that would prefer Adams. Just as I could identify the ones likely to prefer Jefferson. Some guys "team build" while others strive to win now. Some think they do both...
But there are major question marks with Rodgers... maybe there hasn't been enough time for it to factor into rankings. I don't own Jefferson but roster Lamb and AJ Brown in separate leagues. I wouldn't move either for Adams even although I'm fairly certain Adams will put up better numbers this year and probably next year as well. And the funny thing? I suspect I might feel differently if I already owned Adams and was considering moving him for a younger player. Crazy game isn't it?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Jefferson worth two firsts in non-ppr? That seems a little high.
I’m not in any of these leagues. How many WRs are in the top 50 scorers in this scoring system?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's kind of tricky because non-ppr downgrades not only the value of JJ but the 1sts also. Early 1sts are still worth a lot in non-ppr but mid/late 1sts much less than PPR leagues in my experience. Once you get past the main RBs the pick values drop off steeply.
So really depends where those picks are projected I guess is what I'm saying. If they're not early, I'm not interested.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Well that's all kind of what I was thinking. Guy I'm working with has the 5 & 9. If there's one of the big three RBs still there when he's OTC I think I'd do it for the 5th and his 2nd rounder, which seems a little light but I have more WRs than RBs and need to start two of the latter.
Definitely agree. Been nearly a decade since I played non-ppr, I am curious what the dynamics are now with so few bell-cow RB’s. Does a rookie RB like Sermon still go before most of the rookie WR’s in this kind of league?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm in a non-PPR dynasty, 14 teamer, lineup is start 5 RB/WR (no required TE), minimum of 1 each, so 3 flex, and I would say that it is safe to expect at least 8 or 9 RBs to go in the first round in this particular league.Buckna said:
E2A: Through 5 picks, it's 4 RBs and 1 QB. Trey Sermon went at #5 ahead of Chase.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know the rosters, but over Chase? I wouldn't even do that, and I need to start 2 RBs.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Chase went 6th. In this league it's pretty typical that the flyer RBs go late 1st/early 2nd. Non-PPR and able to start 4 they risk/reward is almost there. This year I don't pick until the 27th pick and have no plans to try get back into the draft, so just a spectator waiting to see if any decent Wr falls to me, even though I am pretty stacked at WR and really need either QB depth/dart throws or RB dart throws.
rockaction
Footballguy
Gotcha. Each league's set-up is different. It's one of those things. I assumed PPR for some reason, and didn't inquire about how many starters you could have. I just question, with some of the analytical problems behind the later RBs, why you'd risk it over what is more of a surefire thing in Chase. But to each their own.
I don't know that analytically it makes sense, but that's the draft history which makes it a little easy to try and plan accordingly. WR value falls in the draft, though given non-PPR, the flexible lineup (1-4 RB and 1-4 WR/TE, total of 5) and combined WR/TE, if you can roll out 3-4 legit RB1s or at least the 60% side of a committee you have a significant advantage.
I've taken a strategy of offloading mid to late 1st rounders if I can to acquire proven talent, or, if there is a near surefire RB coming out, essentially overpaying to get the top pick or two to be sure to get him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Maybe you can do that now that the class kind of fell apart but when I was trying to trade Julio last year and a couple months ago, it was total crickets. Ended up just taking the only deal offered to me just to get something for him (2022 3rd and Bryan Edwards).
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think the market whiplash about this class will be proven wrong, but it is why I think moving him for a 2 now is more feasible than it was before.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Depends on the league. If impatience is common then I'd consider waiting to take TE Fliers until those that drafted them drop them. I'm optimistic about his future, but he's going to spend a lot of time blocking year one cause of this ####ty OL.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good point, I was able to get add Irv Smith this year when someone gave up on him prematurely. I also have an awful roster that needs to flip like like 20 spots so holding a TE for 2 years wouldn't be a problem for me.
Friermuth IMO is very Henry/Kmet like to me. Solid, would have to be in a great scheme to be anymore and PF will be on a team that has long term QB issues, drafts WR's very well and will likely heavily feature a RB in the passing game. Hard to get excited about him to be honest.
I have some high upside TE targets that should not cost as much as Freirmuth that I'd rather take a shot on for what they cost.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You're right, I was thinking of Brevin Jordan, who I thought was very athletic, but had bad numbers. Freiermuth probably won't be used a lot in the passing game in Pittsburgh, but I could be wrong.
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Cool, you had me thinking I was missing something on Friermuth and looks like we agree on him.
Tau837
Footballguy
I have a startup dynasty draft in June, and it uses the third round reversal format. I have never participated in a league that used that format, and I happened to draw the first pick, meaning I will have 1.1, 2.12, 3.12, 4.1, ...
I'm not sure I like this draft position, and am contemplating trying to trade out of it. Curious to hear about others' experience drafting in this format, and preferences for draft slot in this format.
I'm not sure I like this draft position, and am contemplating trying to trade out of it. Curious to hear about others' experience drafting in this format, and preferences for draft slot in this format.
I think it's the most "fair" of the snake draft options for startup drafts, but it can be frustrating.
You really need to nail that 1.01 or trade out. Something like 1.01/3.12 for 1.06/2.07
kutta
Footballguy
Is it superflex? Seems like Mahomes is far and away the most valuable player in SF so I think I'd keep 1.01 in that format. In others I may look around a bit.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, Superflex, but QB scoring severely devalued to try to even out position value. For example, in 2020, Allen was top QB and #12 scorer overall in ppg (ignoring Dak since he played less than 5 full games). My first thought was that I should draft Mahomes, but he finished #14 in ppg in 2020 and #26 in 2019. So it is not as clear cut as it might be in other formats.
kutta
Footballguy
Interesting. With that scoring I agree you should try to trade out of that spot.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m not saying this in a disparaging way but it seems odd to do SuperFlex and then devalue QBs - but maybe that makes it even more interesting?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I don’t play SF, but I’ve always thought it was kind of cool how the QB value is close to what it is in the NFL. But then again, maybe that’s why I don’t play that format...
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite. If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues. I love RBs having lots of value but I'm pretty sure that is solely because traditionally in FF that is what I'm used to.
If I were just wandering into FF right now having never played it before and saw how RBs are ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues I would probably think to myself "this is really really stupid that such an unimportant NFL position is the thing this entire game is built upon.".
If I were wandering into FF right now and started with SF I would probably think "man QBs are so important in this, but I guess that makes sense because they're so important in the real NFL too".
Obviously FF's sole purpose isn't to mimmick the NFL, but I think the only reason so many of us accept RB value is simply because we're used to it. Objectively QBs being super valuable in FF makes a LOT more sense than RBs being super valuable.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I think the intent of the commish was to actually make the player to start in the SF position an actual choice, not a nobrainer to always start a QB, but I think he went overboard. I sent him some feedback that may influence changing the scoring a bit. For example, looking at 2020 regular season in this format:
- Number of 30+ point games:
WRs - 40
- RBs - 21
- TEs - 6
- QBs - 2
- Def - 1
- PK - 0
[*]Average rank of highest scoring player per position each week:
WR - 2.06
- RB - 2.71
- QB - 10.88
- TE - 11.24
- Def - 22.88 - top scoring defense outscored top scoring QB 4 times
- PK - 36.59 - top scoring PK outscored top scoring QB 2 times
[*]Example: Josh Allen was the top scoring QB, finishing at #8 overall. His best fantasy game of the season under this scoring system was week 15, when he had 359/2 passing and 33/2 rushing. His 27.48 score was beaten by:
WR Ridley, who had 10/163/1 receiving for 32.3 points
- TE Waller, who had 9/150/1 receiving for 32.25 points
- WR Hopkins, who had 1/0 rushing and 9/169/1 receiving for 32 points
- RB Pollard, who had 69/2 rushing and 6/63/0 receiving for 29.70 points
- RB Montgomery, who had 146/2 rushing and 1/16/0 receiving for 28.95 points
I hadn't been expecting such a disparity until I took a look at the 2020 player scoring. If QB scoring was closer to normal, I'd probably be okay with opening with a QB since it is SF. As it is, I think I'd be happier trading back. Not sure if I'll be able to find a trade partner for that.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
deadlyrange0321
Footballguy
Something I’m thinking about it.....just getting into a startup where TEs get 2 PPR and all others get the standard 1. What type of value are we looking at for the position at this point?
Required to start 1RB 1WR 1TE and then 4 flex.
Required to start 1RB 1WR 1TE and then 4 flex.
That would make them right up there with the top wrs for me. I’d draft a te every year.
Tau837
Footballguy
The startup league I will be drafting next month has unusual requirements: SF, but with drastically reduced QB scoring; PPR with TE premium; and large starting lineups (96-108 RB/WR/TE starters per week). Stock dynasty rankings don't really reflect this kind of league.
I'm wondering what methodologies others use for unusual league formats like this. Do you just rely upon a tool that enables entry of scoring system and lineup requirements, like Draft Dominator or similar tools? Or do you have other approaches?
I'm wondering what methodologies others use for unusual league formats like this. Do you just rely upon a tool that enables entry of scoring system and lineup requirements, like Draft Dominator or similar tools? Or do you have other approaches?
