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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
We all know the NFL is a "next man up" league, especially at the Runningback position. You need no further proof of this than Tim Hightower last year who in the absence of Mark Ingram lead owners to fantasy championships.

If you've done your homework, you obviously know that Matt Jones the projected starting Runningback for the Washington Redskins went down with a shoulder injury. In his absence, Rob Kelley is taking his place and being given a chance to shine.

If Kelley is available in any format, you need to roster him right now:

Fantasy is a game of volume. The least talented player in the NFL can produce for your team if he gets touches. If Matt Jones misses Week 1, Rob Kelley is in store for plenty of touches. He is currently the #1 on the depth chart with Matt Jones out.

How many touches are available? Alfred Morris ran the ball 202 times last year and those carries inherently need to go to somebody else. Even assuming Matt Jones is healthy and we bump him up to 200 rushes this year, there are still 146 touches up for grab that could easily go to Kelley.

Kelley is an excellent fit in the Redskins offense primarily because he excelled in a spread offense in Tulane. The Redskins are stacked at WR and when they run 2WR with Jordan Reed at TE it is essential a 3WR spread set. In college, Kelley was used similar to Matt Forte (obviously, Tulane connection) and Bilal Powell on New York. He was extremely effective running out of shotgun, running draws, and catching the ball out of the backfield.

Furthermore, in the preseason Kelley has proven to be an excellent pass blocker even earning the praise of starting Quarterback Kirk Cousins both on his pass blocking and rushing ability:

“I thought he did a really good job running the football and also in pass protection, which is a very difficult part of playing the running back position. Just continue to compliment him, I think when you’re a rookie and undrafted and you’re in that position, what you need is belief. You need people around you who believe in you and have confidence in you because he does have the talent and he can run the football well. You just have to continue encouraging him and I think he showed a lot of confidence  when he got going and he’s a talented football player.”

It's no secret that the Redskins will be a pass-heavy team this season and if a Runningback wants to see significant carries he needs to be able to pass block. The fact that Kelley played out of the spread in Tulane is justification that he be an asset in 3rd down, hurry up, and garbage time situations.

As far as running the ball from under center goes, there isn't much tape of Kelley doing it in college however in the most recent preseason game against the Bills Kelley excelled at it. He started with the first string offense, frequently found the hole, hit it with great acceleration, split defenders, and fought for extra yards Don't believe me? See for yourself.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t7qmCnxDmxo

Don't get me wrong, this isn't some type of athletic freak, his combine numbers are very weak but he is an excellent fit in this Redskins system. But what about Matt Jones? He just hurt his shoulder (AC joint), he didn't tear his ACL. Personally, I'm not extremely impressed with Matt Jones, why?

The first red flag is his paltry 3.4 yards per carry. As a young Runningback, you want to be somewhere around 4 yards per carry to have job security. You can't blame the offensive line because on 60 more carries, Alfred Morris averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Even more troubling is that Matt Jones only eclipsed 4 yards per carry in 3 of 14 games last year.

The next red flag are fumbles. On 163 touches, he fumbled the ball 4 times. Every 40 times he touched the ball, he coughed it up. Fumbles are the kiss of death for a running back.

The last red flag are injury concerns. He hurt his hip which caused him to miss weeks 16, 17, and the playoff game against the Packers. He had surgery on his groin in the offseason. Now he's sitting on the bench with a shoulder injury while Rob Kelley is shining with the starting offense. It was just preseason but when running with #1s against Buffalo, Kelley rushed 12 times for 51 yards (4.3ypc) in just one half of play.

You're officially put on notice, this guy is your first waiver acquisition of the season! The best part is? He can be had for free!

Thanks for reading, if you like content like this I will be writing much more like this and it will be available on my website.

Rob Kelley Tulane highlights:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XrndMLIop3s

 
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While Kelly is currently in the lead to back up Matt Jones, that is far from a foregone conclusion.  Two weeks ago he was behind Mack, and everyone expected the 7th round pick to end up the#2, not udfa Kelly.

No harm rostering him if you have the space on your bench, but he is not a must add IMO.  Lotto ticket.

 
I like how everyone is either a stud, bust or a lotto ticket in the SP these days.  I agree with you Em.  I think there is a pretty good chance he runs away with the starting gig if Jones can't get back by Week 1.  The one bit of cold water is that Chris Thompson will have a big role in the passing game, so I think you are overstating his usage in the passing game.  I

 
I like how everyone is either a stud, bust or a lotto ticket in the SP these days.  
"Everyone" isn't, but this one player we're talking about here is, since he's not yet been tabbed the RB2, nor is he expected to have a big role receiving.

so in response to this topic, 2 people said this one player is a lotto ticket, which is fair considering the unknowns

 
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I like how everyone is either a stud, bust or a lotto ticket in the SP these days.  I agree with you Em.  I think there is a pretty good chance he runs away with the starting gig if Jones can't get back by Week 1.  The one bit of cold water is that Chris Thompson will have a big role in the passing game, so I think you are overstating his usage in the passing game.  I
This is probably true, but CT has had never-ending injury issues of his own and Kelley killed it in pass protection with the starters this week in the dress rehearsal game. Rare quality in a rookie and the Skins are going to pass the ball a lot.

 
"Everyone" isn't, but this one player we're talking about here is, since he's not yet been tabbed the RB2, nor is he expected to have a big role receiving.

so in response to this topic, 2 people said he's a lotto ticket.

i don't think Hulk & i constitute  "everyone"? 

:ph34r:
It's definitely a trend I've noticed, and it's really just lazy analysis.  A lotto ticket infers long odds.  He is currently the #1 RB on the depth chart and has an injured/unproven/underwhelming Jones behind him and has played very well in a small sample. 

What exactly is a lotto ticket about this situation? 

 
This is probably true, but CT has had never-ending injury issues of his own and Kelley killed it in pass protection with the starters this week in the dress rehearsal game. Rare quality in a rookie and the Skins are going to pass the ball a lot.
I agree.  I don't like Kelley any less because of CT, just would caution that OP might be overselling his role in the passing game.  Kelley looks like a guy that defies his own athletic deficiencies, he looks a lot more elusive than his measurable would lead you to believe. I'm a fan of these types of players as they tend to quickly translate and are consitent, albiet without a ton of upside usually.  

 
It's definitely a trend
One topic constitutes a trend? Interesting. This is the 1st player I've called a lotto ticket on these forums.

What exactly is a lotto ticket about this situation? 
Other than unknown timeline of Jones returning, uknown production from this player, unknown usage when on the field and unknown timeshare among the RBs on the roster for a team that's consistently used a RBBC in the recent past should Jones miss time you mean? 

Hmmm

 
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One topic constitutes a trend? Interesting. This is the 1st player I've called a lotto ticket on these forums.

Other than unknown timeline of Jones returning, uknown production from this player, unknown usage when on the field and unknown timeshare among the RBs on the roster for a team that's consistently used a RBBC in the recent last should Jones miss time you mean? 

Hmmm
Dart throw, Flier, et al..  Chris Hogan getting 1st team reps and is the clear #2 WR in 11 personnel in one of the best passing games while tearing it up in preseason = Lotto pick.   There absolutely is a clear trend (maybe I'm just now noticing?) of people casting aside current information, such as performance, depth chart, reps and personnel groupings in favor of preconceived notions or fear of the unknown.   It's much easier to peg a potential breakout candidate as a lotto ticket because if he hits you were right, and if he doesn't you are also right.

ETA: Given your unknowns, wouldn't Matt Jones also be a lotto ticket?

 
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ETA: Given your unknowns, wouldn't Matt Jones also be a lotto ticket?
No, because I've seen more of Matt Jones, who I thought was overdrafted based on volume rather than ability. Matt Jones is a plodder who hasn't impressed me in any aspect of the game, and I thought he was overvalued the 4th-5th rounds.

lottery tickets are players I don't know that much about who could have upside.  And given the circumstances, injury to a starter of questionable ability, there's a chance he hits. 

Lotto ticket isn't an insult, nor is it "lazy" - it is a fitting description in this case. 

 
No, because I've seen more of Matt Jones, who I thought was overdrafted based on volume rather than ability. Matt Jones is a plodder who hasn't impressed me in any aspect of the game, and I thought he was overvalued the 4th-5th rounds.

lottery tickets are players I don't know that much about who could have upside.  And given the circumstances, injury to a starter of questionable ability, there's a chance he hits. 

Lotto ticket isn't an insult, nor is it "lazy" - it is a fitting description in this case. 
It absolutely is lazy analysis.  You are basically saying "He may or may not hit" without giving any credence to what OP used to backup his position.  There is a really good chance he opens the season as the Redskins #1 RB, that is not a lotto ticket.   A lotto ticket would be adding someone like Moritz Boehringer in dynasty, or perhaps an unber talented young guy who would need a ton of injuries like say Darius Jackson in Dallas.  But now we are getting into semantics, what I truley don't like about the term and those like it is that allows for anyone to throw cold water on a take without anything to back it up.  

If your take is that Rob Kelley is a JAG, and will be quickly relegated to the bench once Matt Jones is healthy, that is fair, say that.  I think it would be infinitely more valueable and more akin to a Shark in a pool.

 
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While I like Matt Jones a lot he's too injury prone ..but what we have uncovered in the meantime is the Patriots of the NFC in that you do not know who starts week to week in Washington..

Easily the biggest 'keep away' sign out there this season..

 
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In my opinion this is a fluid situation, not even worth wasting a roster spot. My guess is that Redskins take the best of the leftovers from the running back rich teams when final cuts roll around. 

Knile Davis, Ronnie Hillman, etc. are probably the answer. 

 
While I like Matt Jones a lot he's too injury prone for my liking..but what we have uncovered in the meantime is the Patriots of the NFC in that you do not know who starts week to week in Washington..

Easily the biggest 'keep away' sign out there this season..
I hear what you are saying as I could see gameflow absolutely killing Kelley.  If you are flush at RB he's probably not worth rostering, but if you are like me and invested heavily in WRs early then these are the types of guys that can make all the difference.  He is an end of the roster guy you can turn and burn after a week or two so there isn't much investment for someone who could help fill out your RB2/Flex spot.  You will not have to hold on and wait, we will know shortly.   

I really like his odds to take the job if he gets a few starts.  They open vs Steelers, if he can play well against them he has some pretty easy matchups with vs Cowboys, @ Giants, vs Browns.   

 
It absolutely is lazy analysis.  You are basically saying "He may or may not hit" without giving any credence to what OP used to backup his position.  There is a really good chance he opens the season as the Redskins #1 RB, that is not a lotto ticket.   A lotto ticket would be adding someone like Moritz Boehringer in dynasty, or perhaps an unber talented young guy who would need a ton of injuries like say Darius Jackson in Dallas.  But now we are getting into semantics, what I truley don't like about the term and those like it is that allows for anyone to throw cold water on a take without anything to back it up.  

If your take is that Rob Kelley is a JAG, and will be quickly relegated to the bench once Matt Jones is healthy, that is fair, say that.  I think it would be infinitely more valueable and more akin to a Shark in a pool.
Call it whatever you like. 

I'm avoiding Redskins running backs like the Black Plague. If that's at my own peril, so be it. 

Thag was my stance when Matt Jones was healthy and nothing has changed that, including your thoughtful analysis.

 
Call it whatever you like. 

I'm avoiding Redskins running backs like the Black Plague. If that's at my own peril, so be it. 

Thag was my stance when Matt Jones was healthy and nothing has changed that, including your thoughtful analysis.
I'm not trying to change your mind on it.  

I do like getting the cheap/free guy in a muddled situation, I've avoided Matt Jones at his price tag.

 
I think Keith Marshall is actually the most gifted RB on the team, and I was planning on targeting him in several leagues heading into this season because Jones is not the answer. Marshall's got some injury issues of his own, though, and Gruden said that they were considering IR for him after his injury initially sounded minor. If Marshall is on IR, that is even better for Kelley's prospects. Regardless, I've seen enough of Jones to think that he's just not good and the Skins will be willing to give the next guy a real shot. Jones missing Week 1 would only speed up the process.

Even if you think Kelley is a JAG, as OP said... so is Tim Hightower. At this point in fantasy football, a JAG getting consistent touches in a competent offense is a pretty big asset. Kelley could be exactly that. The only real concern is, as wordclass mentioned, the possibility of them bringing in a Hillman or something along those lines. If they don't bring in a veteran, I think Kelley will be given the reins, sooner or later.

 
It's definitely a trend I've noticed, and it's really just lazy analysis.  A lotto ticket infers long odds.  He is currently the #1 RB on the depth chart and has an injured/unproven/underwhelming Jones behind him and has played very well in a small sample. 

What exactly is a lotto ticket about this situation? 
I explained my rationale.  I live in DC and have been following this situation closely for months.  I even drafted Kelly in my dynasty league last week.  Em was gushing and I was trying trying to drop a little cold water on his enthusiasm because I think it is much more likely he holds zero value this season than high value.  Jones will be back by week 1 and Kelley is barely in the #2 spot, numerous things could change that.  I don't think as highly of Jones as the coaching staff does fwiw.  I'd love to see Kelley get a shot.  But my wishes have no impact on reality, and the reality is that Kelley being an impact player this year is certainly possible but far from probable, which is the definition of a lotto ticket IMO.

 
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I think Keith Marshall is actually the most gifted RB on the team, and I was planning on targeting him in several leagues heading into this season because Jones is not the answer. Marshall's got some injury issues of his own, though, and Gruden said that they were considering IR for him after his injury initially sounded minor. If Marshall is on IR, that is even better for Kelley's prospects. Regardless, I've seen enough of Jones to think that he's just not good and the Skins will be willing to give the next guy a real shot. Jones missing Week 1 would only speed up the process.

Even if you think Kelley is a JAG, as OP said... so is Tim Hightower. At this point in fantasy football, a JAG getting consistent touches in a competent offense is a pretty big asset. Kelley could be exactly that. The only real concern is, as wordclass mentioned, the possibility of them bringing in a Hillman or something along those lines. If they don't bring in a veteran, I think Kelley will be given the reins, sooner or later.
Keith is really fast but I haven't liked what I've seen from him thus far.  His vision isn't keeping up with his legs.

 
Even if you think Kelley is a JAG, as OP said... so is Tim Hightower. At this point in fantasy football, a JAG getting consistent touches in a competent offense is a pretty big asset. Kelley could be exactly that. The only real concern is, as wordclass mentioned, the possibility of them bringing in a Hillman or something along those lines. If they don't bring in a veteran, I think Kelley will be given the reins, sooner or later.
I agree with that, but as you mentioned, a Hillman could be brought in, or one of the other released RBs. And/or they could employ a RBBC.  I had heard that was a risk to Jones production even before he was injured - 3rd down role questioned, etc. 

And from what I've seen the Redskins offense runs through the arm of Cousins these days. Maybe Hulk can provide better insight there but they are certainly more pass-oriented than they were in the days of Clinton Portis running roughshod over the league. 

 
Fwiw 5 years ago everyone was avoiding the Skins backfield and this guy named Alfred Morris emerged and put up a great season.

There is value here, but I've been following then closely forever and it's pretty unclear who it will be.

Kinda expect them to sign someone soon.

 
Kelley averaged 4.0 ypc at Tulane, including 3.6 his last year. I'm not sure he was ever the leading rusher at Tulane or excelled at Tulane.

At least Morris had a superior college career and was the leader rusher on his team, by far. 

 
IF Matt Jones is out a long time, IF Matt Jones is reinjured or IF Matt Jones performs so poorly they have to put in Kelly and ride him

then Kelly is valuable

 
IF Matt Jones is out a long time, IF Matt Jones is reinjured or IF Matt Jones performs so poorly they have to put in Kelly and ride him

then Kelly is valuable
More like..
IF Matt Jones is injured (he is)

IF Kelley plays well (he has)

then Kelley is valuable. 

If nothing changes in the next 14 days, Kelley is the starting RB for the Redskins and that has intrinsic value for as long as that's the case.
 

Matt Jones supposedly back for week 1 but Gruden tends to underestimate injury timelines.
There has been no strong indication he will play, but they do seem hopeful.  Dr Chao thinks it's a toss up on whether he will be ready week 1 depending on severity.  We'll see. 

 
I don't think you can reasonably expect anyone from Washington's run game to "pop", especially no one to have anything close to Alfred Morris' rookie year. Jay Gruden does not produce great run game statistics. There is a good enough sample size now. Here is how each of his rushing offenses as OC & HC have finished.

2015 / WAS: 30th in per carry, 20th in total yards, 20th in rushing tds

2014 / WAS: 14th in per carry, 19th in total yards, 9th in rushing tds

2013 / CIN: 27th in per carry, 18th in total yards, 13th in rushing tds

2012 / CIN: 20th in per carry, 18th in total yards, 18th in rushing tds

2011 / CIN: 27th in per carry, 19th in total yards, 21 in rushing tds

He's had 3 different running backs get to 1000 yards rushing, but their efficiency was poor. Benson got there at 3.9 yards per carry, BJGE at 3.9 and Morris at 4.1 per carry.

This is the best you can expect from a Gruden-led offense. If Matt Jones isn't the guy, it will be whoever can grind out 3.9 yards per carry, pass block, and not turn the ball over. At this point in the season, most people are looking for upside, there just isn't great upside with any running back in Washington at the moment.

Hillman actually would interest me if he found his way to Washington. I don't know why Denver is down on him, he's 24, always been a hard working running back, rarely turns the ball over. He was 15th in first downs last year among running backs despite the split situation in their backfield and really poor QB play.

 
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and if Kelly is it in week 1 ... when Matt Jones DOES come back , he'll likely get his job (injury rarely keeps a guys off his job when the injured guy heals)

 
So....I'm sensing I'm not the only one who thinks this is a slight bit overstated: 

"If Kelley is available in any format, you need to roster him right now"

 
I don't think you can reasonably expect anyone from Washington's run game to "pop", especially no one to have anything close to Alfred Morris' rookie year. Jay Gruden does not produce great run game statistics. There is a good enough sample size now. Here is how each of his rushing offenses as OC & HC have finished.

2015 / WAS: 30th in per carry, 20th in total yards, 20th in rushing tds

2014 / WAS: 14th in per carry, 19th in total yards, 9th in rushing tds

2013 / CIN: 27th in per carry, 18th in total yards, 13th in rushing tds

2012 / CIN: 20th in per carry, 18th in total yards, 18th in rushing tds

2011 / CIN: 27th in per carry, 19th in total yards, 21 in rushing tds

He's had 3 different running backs get to 1000 yards rushing, but their efficiency was poor. Benson got there at 3.9 yards per carry, BJGE at 3.9 and Morris at 4.1 per carry.

This is the best you can expect from a Gruden-led offense. If Matt Jones isn't the guy, it will be whoever can grind out 3.9 yards per carry, pass block, and not turn the ball over. At this point in the season, most people are looking for upside, there just isn't great upside with any running back in Washington at the moment.

Hillman actually would interest me if he found his way to Washington. I don't know why Denver is down on him, he's 24, always been a hard working running back, rarely turns the ball over. He was 15th in first downs last year among running backs despite the split situation in their backfield and really poor QB play.
There is a ton of upside for a guy that is basically free on the wires and that has a path to being a starting RB in the league.  Nobody in here is saying he is going to be your plug and play RB1, but you can do a lot worse with a bench spot.   With the speculative cost, I'd argue all there is is upside at the moment.

If you are solid at RB, then maybe not, but many owners churn the bottom of the roster looking for a warm body that gets touches at RB.  

 
And upside-wise, seems more like a scratcher....

finish this sentence: 

If Rob Kelly becomes the starter and takes over from week 1-16, he will be the #_____ RB in fantasy football. 

Curious where your rank him if everything breaks perfectly.  

e.g.  Scratcher, or  Powerball? 

 
And upside-wise, seems more like a scratcher....

finish this sentence: 

If Rob Kelly becomes the starter and takes over from week 1-16, he will be the #_____ RB in fantasy football. 

Curious where your rank him if everything breaks perfectly.  

e.g.  Scratcher, or  Powerball? 
I'd have to do a team wide projection to really do this question justice (give me some time) but roughly, if he did get 200 rushes at 3.5ypc and 50 targets and a modest TD rate of 0.03 that would give him about 900 total yards, 6-7 TDs, and 30 receptions or around 156 pts  in PPR, which would of been RB27 in 2015.

 
There is a ton of upside for a guy that is basically free on the wires and that has a path to being a starting RB in the league.  Nobody in here is saying he is going to be your plug and play RB1, but you can do a lot worse with a bench spot.   With the speculative cost, I'd argue all there is is upside at the moment.

If you are solid at RB, then maybe not, but many owners churn the bottom of the roster looking for a warm body that gets touches at RB.  
In big leagues (mine is 16 teams) threads like this are valuable.

 
My apologies, I play in 12 team max leagues with only 6 roster spots. I can see how in larger leagues he'd be appealing. 
I assume you mean 6 bench spots, which is one more than the typical 5 in many redrafts.  I'd definitely make room for him if this is the case unless you have 4 really good RBs, which is pretty rare.  At the very least you can drop a kicker and hold him until there is some clarity for Week 1.  

 
In big leagues (mine is 16 teams) threads like this are valuable.
Or huge rosters like Zealots (53 w/ IDP). I was paying zero attention to the Redskins backfield before,  now I'm at least making the guy with Jones pay up to get him in the FA auction. 

 
I'd have to do a team wide projection to really do this question justice (give me some time) but roughly, if he did get 200 rushes at 3.5ypc and 50 targets and a modest TD rate of 0.03 that would give him about 900 total yards, 6-7 TDs, and 30 receptions or around 156 pts  in PPR, which would of been RB27 in 2015.
Over the course of the season, guys and opportunities like this will come and go... People will blow 100% of their free agent budget...  In the morning, the sun will rise.

You may not like Jones but, apparently, the Skins do or their roster might be constituted differently.  Maybe Jones will be OK and maybe he won't - I don't think anyone really knows... but this could change dramatically before the season starts (someone not even on the roster) or Jones comes back as expected... time will tell.

As far as the projections above, Jones could hit those numbers fairly easily, right?  Were you hyped about him two weeks ago?

 
Over the course of the season, guys and opportunities like this will come and go... People will blow 100% of their free agent budget...  In the morning, the sun will rise.

You may not like Jones but, apparently, the Skins do or their roster might be constituted differently.  Maybe Jones will be OK and maybe he won't - I don't think anyone really knows... but this could change dramatically before the season starts (someone not even on the roster) or Jones comes back as expected... time will tell.

As far as the projections above, Jones could hit those numbers fairly easily, right?  Were you hyped about him two weeks ago?
No because his cost was prohibitive, and that is the kind of line you are looking at if Jones is the guy.  Also, nobody is saying blow through 100% of your free agent budget.  If someone asked for my opinion I'd say 5%-10% or maybe even higher if you are hard up at RB. 

 
Redraft it makes plenty of sense to roster Kelley through week 1.  Worst case, Jones comes back healthy, looks good, and you have an easy cut for your hot waiver pickup.

Dynasty, I dont like the gamble.  Even if he contends for the job this year, he's likely to split with a receiving back (Thompson...maybe they resign Pierre if CT can't stay on the field).  The chance they bring in a free agent after week one is high, and even if Kelley holds his own this year, I expect the Redskins to spend a high draft pick at the position in next year's talent-rich class.

 
No because his cost was prohibitive, and that is the kind of line you are looking at if Jones is the guy.  Also, nobody is saying blow through 100% of your free agent budget.  If someone asked for my opinion I'd say 5%-10% or maybe even higher if you are hard up at RB. 
I didn't mean to imply that you were...  Sorry, but it reminds me of cases I've seen where a brief flash of opportunity results in over exuberance...  Still, would you risk even 10% on such a shaky situation before the season even began?

 
Redraft it makes plenty of sense to roster Kelley through week 1.  Worst case, Jones comes back healthy, looks good, and you have an easy cut for your hot waiver pickup.

Dynasty, I dont like the gamble.  Even if he contends for the job this year, he's likely to split with a receiving back (Thompson...maybe they resign Pierre if CT can't stay on the field).  The chance they bring in a free agent after week one is high, and even if Kelley holds his own this year, I expect the Redskins to spend a high draft pick at the position in next year's talent-rich class.
I am not deluded enough to say that him being the long term option is a reasonable expectation, but in dynasty you typically have 24ish man rosters and the utility of a potential starting RB is worth rostering IMO, if only for a season (or a few weeks)

I didn't mean to imply that you were...  Sorry, but it reminds me of cases I've seen where a brief flash of opportunity results in over exuberance...  Still, would you risk even 10% on such a shaky situation before the season even began?
All good, yes I could see myself risking 10%, but I'd likely only go around 5% unless I really needed him and/or thought I had a savvy owner that would get him.  I usually go $3 with this kind of bid because many that would want a speculative add will not go above $1 or $2.  

If I had Matt Jones penciled in as my RB2 and the RBs on my bench are thin, I don't think 10% is too aggressive.   But I guess this all depends on how you like to spend your waiver cash, I think that the period between preseason week 3 and regular season week 2 is the best time to be aggressive which is another thread subject.

 
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in dynasty you typically have 24ish man rosters and the utility of a potential starting RB is worth rostering IMO, if only for a season (or a few weeks)
True, there is some value in having a week-1 starter, but not if he's also just a 1-week starter.

Cutdown day is coming...if I have enough rb depth that I wont be starting Kelley in week one anyway, I'm not convinced he's worth the roster spot even over Thompson or Marshall, much less other players with longer term value.  

 
So....I'm sensing I'm not the only one who thinks this is a slight bit overstated: 

"If Kelley is available in any format, you need to roster him right now"
If you don't want a guy who can get 20 carries in a game week 1 for free if Matt Jones is hurt fine.

He got 13 touches in one half of action in preseason. Avoid at your own peril. But I know that touches = value.

 
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If you don't want a guy who can get 20 carries in a game week 1 for free if Matt Jones is hurt fine.

He got 11 touches in one half of action in preseason. Avoid at your own peril. But I know that touches = value.
At my own peril? What is this, the 1600s? Who talks like that? 

Let's see, in PPR with 2 RB, 3 WR & 1 Flex I've got DJohnson & Freeman starting with Woodhead, at flex & Gore on the bench (with Lockett, Snead, Wheaton & Powell as flex options). 

to add captain peril, AKA Kelly, I'd have to drop someone like Powell or McKinnon, both of whom I think would be more valuable than Kelly if Forte or AP go down or are ineffective. 

So yeah - not seeing the great peril here. 

But I do agree that in deeper leagues or leagues (14-16-18 team) with deeper benches, Kelly is a decent speculative add. But probably not a lot more, and certainly not a must-add in all formats. 

I could be wrong - and hey, I'll be the first to admit it if Kelly blows up.

I could see the tone of this changing if it were week 7 and several starters were out & Jones got hurt, so folks were desperate for a RB, but it's week 3 of the preseason - if you're desperate for Kelly right now, you're either in a 16 team league or you drafted horribly. 

Cheers.

"Well, let me have just a little bit of peril?"

- Sir Galahad, MP&tHG

 
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