2016 Rookie 1.09 (Post NFL Draft) (1 Viewer)

 
 
2016 Rookie 1.01 (Post NFL Draft)
2016 Rookie 1.02 (Post NFL Draft)
2016 Rookie 1.03 (Post NFL Draft)
2016 Rookie 1.04 (Post NFL Draft)
2016 Rookie 1.05 (Post NFL Draft)
2016 Rookie 1.06 (Post NFL Draft)
2016 Rookie 1.07 (Post NFL Draft)





Standard Scoring 

1.01 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 98%
1.02 WR Josh Doctson, Redskins 27%
1.03 WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings 43%
1.04 WR Corey Coleman, Browns 64%
1.05 RB Derrick Henry, Titans 56%
1.06 WR Sterling Shepard, N.Y. Giants 27%
1.07 RB Kenneth Dixon, Ravens 28%
1.08 WR Michael Thomas, Saints 54%

PPR Scoring 

1.01 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 95%
1.02 WR Corey Coleman, Browns 37%
1.03 WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings 45%
1.04 WR Josh Doctson, Redskins 79%
1.05 WR Sterling Shepard, N.Y. Giants 47%
1.07 WR Michael Thomas, Saints 49%
1.08 RB Derrick Henry, Titans 50%
1.09 RB RB Kenneth Dixon, Ravens 46%

Start 2 QB Scoring 

1.01 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 66%
1.02 QB Jared Goff, Rams 31%
1.03 QB Carson Wentz, Eagles 43%
1.04 WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings 24%
1.05 WR Josh Doctson, Redskins 22%
1.06 WR Corey Coleman, Browns 28%
1.07 QB Paxton Lynch, Broncos 29%
1.08  RB Derrick Henry, Titans 22%

Bump 

Apparently I am going to own Booker a lot. 

^^

Biabreakable said:

Apparently I am going to own Booker a lot. 

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That's funny,  I was just thinking I don't understand why booker is getting so much love.   I wouldn't mind taking a flyer but he's fighting draft status,  age and competition while most of the other rbs are only fighting draft status.

I see a vote for "other" in all 3 polls.  It would be helpful to know what player that vote is for so that they can be added to future polls.

bostonfred said:

That's funny,  I was just thinking I don't understand why booker is getting so much love.   I wouldn't mind taking a flyer but he's fighting draft status,  age and competition while most of the other rbs are only fighting draft status.

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I guess it depends on what you consider so much love?

This is pick 9 and he looks like he may win the standard poll now. 

Here is most recent ADP mid round RBs

66. Derrick Henry RB18 R7 67.92 -0.31 [55,88]

68. Giovani Bernard RB19 69.67 -8.33 [49,87]

70. LeSean McCoy RB20 75.50 -14.72 [57,98]

72. Matt Jones RB21 76.42 -4.81 [59,91]

75. Ameer Abdullah RB22 77.42 -9.36 [58,99]

77. Kenneth Dixon RB23 R8 78.58 -0.19 [59,100]
78. Jeremy Hill RB24 79.33 -0.67 [62,98]
79. Jeremy Langford RB25 79.42 9.97 [68,94]
80. Duke Johnson RB26 80.08 -12.36 [65,93]

83. Jay Ajayi RB27 81.83 -12.72 [39,106]
84. Latavius Murray RB28 83.42 -1.25 [69,100]

90. DeMarco Murray RB29 90.17 9.72 [75,114]

94. Karlos Williams RB30 91.67 6.11 [79,105]

96. Matt Forte RB31 97.50 4.06 [73,120]

104. Charles Sims RB32 104.67 -3.89 [87,122]
105. Tevin Coleman RB33 105.33 -9.33 [98,115]
106. C.J. Prosise RB34 R12 109.33 -8.56 [96,137]
107. Devontae Booker RB35 R13 109.75 10.53 [74,134]

109. Jerick McKinnon RB36 112.17 0.28 [79,131]

111. Ryan Mathews RB37 114.08 -22.81 [76,138]

113. Danny Woodhead RB38 114.50 -7.39 [78,149]
114. Jonathan Stewart RB39 116.33 -5.67 [98,138]

117. Paul Perkins RB40 R14 120.83 -32.39 [95,139]

121. Theo Riddick RB41 124.83 -10.17 [89,156]

124. Isaiah Crowell RB42 126.33 -25.89 [109,140]

128. Javorius Allen RB43 129.67 3.00 [97,166]

Booker being drafted 30 spots later than Dixon. Is this a lot of love?

A flyer would be a non valuable resource used. You shouldn't expect to have him if your not willing to give anything for him.

How many draft spots do you think he should be dropped because of his age?

C.J. Anderson is younger than Forsett or Jennings but your statement seems to disregard these players being competition.

Biabreakable said:

I guess it depends on what you consider so much love?

This is pick 9 and he looks like he may win the standard poll now.

Booker being drafted 30 spots later than Dixon. Is this a lot of love?

A flyer would be a non valuable resource used. You shouldn't expect to have him if your not willing to give anything for him.

How many draft spots do you think he should be dropped because of his age?

C.J. Anderson is younger than Forsett or Jennings but your statement seems to disregard these players being competition.

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Going 1.9 in standard and getting the second or third most votes for 1.9 in ppr is what I think is a lot of love.   He went 16th in my non ppr rookie draft after the 3 qbs, the top five wide receivers, fuller, and elliot/Henry/dixon/prosise/drake/Perkins.  I can see taking him ahead of the qbs, fuller, and a couple of the running backs,  but it surprised me that so many voters think he's the top remaining guy when the opposite was true in our draft.   

I wasn't talking about overall adp. I am not surprised to see him go 30 spots later than dixon.  I was surprised by these poll results.  

Booker is a flyer regardless of where you take him. So are some of the other late round backs.  A flyer is someone who could provide a big return or might not provide anything of value.   That's exactly what booker is.   He may literally never be a starter in his career,  or he could be the lead back charged with building and protecting leads for a strong defense.  The price of a flyer has nothing to do with its definition,  but usually the term connotes a fairly cheap price - not a top 10 rookie pick. 

I don't think he should be dropped any number of draft spots because of his age.  I think other younger players are more interesting and should be picked earlier.  

For example,  Perkins turns 22 in November.  Booker turns 24 in a week and a half.   Neither is likely to be a stud as a rookie, but let's say they're both good enough as rookies to be the encumbent starter next year.  For 25 year old booker to be more valuable than 22.5 year old Perkins, how much better does he have to be as a fantasy player?  

I'm not convinced either one of them is that good.   I like both fine, and they're both in potentially good situations if they can win their jobs.  But I'm not expecting either one to set the world on fire as a rookie. 

Then there's the competition.  As you said,  cj Anderson is younger than 31 year old Rashad Jennings.  Jennings is more likely to be on a pitch count,  and vereen isn't demanding a huge workload,  so the opportunity is there for Perkins to get on the field and get carries right away,  and if he does well with them,  he can easily earn more.  

Booker has to earn time over Anderson,  who they were willing to let go but paid decent money to match his rfa deal when they had other team needs.   Even if he earns that time,  hillman gets both receiving work and change of pace carries and is still fighting for his spot in the rotation.   

Taking booker over Perkins means you believe he's so good that he will not only outperform Anderson and hillman,  but also Perkins,  by so much that he will be more valuable in the 5 years from 2017 to 2021 than Perkins will be in 7.5 years. 

That's not an outrageous stance or anything, and I don't think it would be crazy to take your favorite guy with the 9th pick when there wasn't a clear guy or even a clear position for the next guy you "should" take ahead of him.  It's just surprising to me that so many people on this board think that's the right play that he's currently the consensus number 9 pick. 

Ok well if you think players who are younger should be drafted higher. How much higher?

For Booker (who is older) to be a better fantasy player would mean he scores more points over a course of games or perhaps for a full season than the other RBs who are younger than him. You could say that the younger guys may get a couple more chances to have a useful season because they are younger, but to me their chances of being useful for fantasy football is not really affected by their age.

As far as Hillman remaining the 3rd down RB I do not think that is the case. Booker is likely to replace Hillman as the 3rd down RB in time, perhaps sooner than later (I think this depends on Bookers pass protection which isn't that great imo) and I think he replaces Hillman before he overtakes Anderson as well. If this becomes a RBBC type situation I would expect Booker to get more of the passing looks than Anderson. Denver writers I have read recently have made it pretty clear that the Bronco's are looking to replace Hillman.

I dont care what these players values may be in 2021. I only care about 2016-2018.

Biabreakable said:

I dont care what these players values may be in 2021.

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I do.

I'm not sure if I would take him next but I think Keith Marshall might need to start making an appearance on this lists soon. 

Borden said:

I'm not sure if I would take him next but I think Keith Marshall might need to start making an appearance on this lists soon. 

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I disagree.  Imo, we shouldn't even be close to listing Marshall.

spider321 said:

I disagree.  Imo, we shouldn't even be close to listing Marshall.

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I'd take Marshall over Drake. As player and his situation. 

spider321 said:

I do.

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How many of these RB do you think will still be in the league by 2021?

Biabreakable said:

How many of these RB do you think will still be in the league by 2021?

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Well, by my count the 2011 draft had at least 10 RB's that are still in the league, so I'm gonna say at least 10.

2011 draft class the RB the bolded players are currently still in the league, so 15 of them at this time. Some will not make it once teams cut down to 53 again.

1    28    NOR    Mark Ingram    RB    21    
2    38    ARI    Ryan Williams    RB    21    
2    56    NWE    Shane Vereen    RB    22    
2    57    DET    Mikel Leshoure    RB    21    
2    62    MIA    Daniel Thomas    RB    23    
3    71    DAL    DeMarco Murray    RB    23    
3    73    NWE    Stevan Ridley    RB    22    
3    96    GNB    Alex Green    RB    23    
4    105    WAS    Roy Helu    RB    22    
4    115    SFO    Kendall Hunter    RB    23    
4    119    IND    Delone Carter    RB    24    
4    124    CLE    Owen Marecic    RB    22    
4    125    OAK    Taiwan Jones    RB    23        
4    126    NYJ    Bilal Powell    RB    22    
4    130    TEN    Jamie Harper    RB    22    
5    133    BUF    Johnny White    RB    23    
5    136    ARI    Anthony Sherman    RB    22    
5    145    ATL    Jacquizz Rodgers    RB    21
5    149    PHI    Dion Lewis    RB    21    
6    177    WAS    Evan Royster    RB    23    
6    183    SDG    Jordan Todman    RB    21    
6    187    TAM    Allen Bradford    RB    23    
7    220    DAL    Shaun Chapas    RB    23    
7    221    NYG    Da'Rel Scott    RB    23    
7    223    KAN    Shane Bannon    RB    22            
7    225    BAL    Anthony Allen    RB    23    
7    232    PIT    Baron Batch    RB    23    
7    240    PHI    Stanley Havili    RB    23    
7    246    CIN    Jay Finley    RB

Ingram, Murray and Ridley have been useful for FF. How much do you think these players are worth now in the waning stages of their careers?

If you place significant value on a RB 6 years from now I think that is a losing proposition. Most RB have their best performances within their 1st 6 years of the league and it is usually downhill from there.

Biabreakable said:

How much do you think these players are worth now in the waning stages of their careers?

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How many times are you gonna move the goalpost?

spider321 said:

How many times are you gonna move the goalpost?

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I'm not moving the goal posts I'm trying to have a conversation about the viability of valuing the RB position over the long term. It is kind of a difficult thing to sort through and to do so requires taking things apart and looking at it in stages.

I am pretty sure I will know which of these RB will be useful beyond 2018 by 2017. I consider it a mistake to value RB for longer than the next 3 seasons. In fact for RB I am more concerned about the next two seasons than any others.

For WR who have longer productive careers that's different. I am more open to using a 5 year window or longer term forecasts with WR because I think there is actually some benefit to be gained by doing so. For the RB? Not so much.

Biabreakable said:

Ok well if you think players who are younger should be drafted higher. How much higher?

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Come on man.  I wrote all that stuff and that's what you took away from it?   I'm one of the least youth obsessed guys on the board.  

You probably don't see it this way but to me it feels like you've moved the goal posts on me repeatedly.  Changing the topic from rookie adp to startup adp, going back to this thing about how many spots I would move him because of his age, it is frustrating because I respect you and wanted to talk about why you liked booker over all those other guys, not defend a position i wasn't taking. But there are plenty of other threads and a few months for that. 

More recent posts were not directed at you fred but in response to Spider saying he cares about RB careers beyond the next three seasons. Thus the change in focus to that.

I have stated pretty clearly why I like Booker the best out of these RB. Because I think he is the best player. The most complete 3 down RB of all of the options. There isn't much more for me to say about that. That is my opinion based on watching these RB and how I compare them. Age is not a significant consideration in this for me although I have looked into it quite a bit. There are some advantages to being younger for sure. If all other things were equal being younger is better than being older. I just don't think all things are equal because I think Booker is a better player.

Others do not see what I see. So not much of anywhere to go with that. Just have to agree that we are not seeing the same things even though we may be watching the same things.

eta- the reason I am asking how much value you or anyone else puts on age is because I am genuinely curious how people may quantify that. I don't really quantify this myself and only use age as a tie breaker for otherwise equal prospects. Perhaps there is a good way to quantify it. If so I am curious about it.

Here is some historical data parsed by age for comparison's sake.

The 22 year old group gets 2 VBD more than the average over their career.

The average number of useful seasons for this group is 2.15

22 of the 60 players had three or more 40+ VBD seasons. 37%

The 23 year old group gets 47.2 VBD less than the average over their career.

The average number of useful seasons for this group is 1.65

Seven of these thirty six players had three or more 40+ VBD seasons. 19%

So a 22 year old RB is basically the most common age for a rookie and they represented the average of the best of the best RB over 25 years of data.

A 23 year old RB gets less career VBD than the average by about 50 points,

The useful seasons are .5 more for a 22 year old RB compared to a 23 year old RB. So 8 games.

The 22 year old group is almost twice as likely to have 3 or more good seasons, however the odds of doing so are still low.

21 year old RBs perform above the average by similar degree that the 23 year old RB perform below the average. So the difference between a 21 year old and a 23 year old is pretty significant if this is the only criteria we are considering.

This draft is garbage.  

Clear leaders in all 3 polls.  I am optimistic that I can squeeze in the time to post the next set of polls tonight.

Faust said:

Clear leaders in all 3 polls.  I am optimistic that I can squeeze in the time to post the next set of polls tonight.

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missing 1.06 for PPR in the OP @Faust just a heads up. Thanks for the posts

Sabertooth said:

This draft is garbage.  

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I wouldn't say its garbage but it certainly isn't as good as the last couple seasons.

Pwingles said:

missing 1.06 for PPR in the OP @Faust just a heads up. Thanks for the posts

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They're all there, just numbered incorrectly.

Standard and ppr have the same players in the top 8.

^^

Closed at 90 votes