PPR Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

My quick take on things as I dive into some of my own drafts. (I'm going to write-up my top 13 now and then come back and writeup the 2nd and 3rd round guys when I get more time.)

1. Zeke Elliott- Obviously. Not much to say here.

2. Josh Doctson- I think 2 thru 4 are really close and it comes down to personal preference. I like that Doctson has a clear path to WR1 in Washington and that Gruden loves to throw the ball. Also like his athleticism and well-rounded game. 

3. Corey Coleman- Initially had Coleman #2, but I've been burned by the Browns too many times in the past. Still, I believe in Hue Jackson and like the direction of the new regime so far. Coleman is not only a safe bet for WR1, but looks like he should easily be the best skill player on the team. So I like the chances he ends up with a lot of targets and Hue will find creative ways to get him the ball.

4. Laquon Treadwell- It's probably fair to assume the Vikings offense becomes a bit more pass-heavy at some point, but this is still a team that was dead last in the NFL in pass attempts in 2015. Zimmer has explicitly said over the past few days that he wants this to remain a run-first team and mentioned multiple times how impressed he was with Treadwell's blocking. Won't argue with anyone who likes him at 1.02, but the above is enough of a tie-breaker for me to push him down to 4th.

5. Derrick Henry- Went and looked at the details of Murray's contract. I look at it as $12M in 2016 with options years in 2017 and 2018 of just $3M each. Unless he falls off a cliff (definitely possible), good chance that DeMarco hangs around for a few years and makes this a RBBC for a while. If you're drafting Henry here, it's more of a long-term bet on his talent (or because you don't like any of the other options). 

6. Sterling Shepard- When you look at talent, fit and opportunity, Shepard seems to be the best bet of the 2nd tier WRs. There are targets to be had in New York and while OBJ limits the upside, all of the other WRs in this tier are facing similar issues. 

7. Will Fuller- I'll end up being higher on Fuller than most. One of my personal philosophies is that consistently betting you are a better judge of NFL talent that the NFL people making the picks (who spend way more time and have way more information) will cause you to go broke. It is fair to discount Fuller somewhat because his NFL value (as a deep threat) probably will exceed his fantasy value. But we're still talking about the #2 receiver off the board. Target-hog DeAndre Hopkins (192 targets!) limits Fuller's upside quite a bit. But it's worth noting that in 2015 Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts combined for a line of 89-1142-6. Fuller's probably never going to be an 89 catch guy, but even with Hopkins getting nearly 200 targets, there are still enough targets to go around in Houston for fantasy relevance if Fuller is as talented as the Houston front office and Bill O'Brien clearly think he is. 

8. Michael Thomas- It's weird that I think I'm going to end up being lower on Thomas than the consensus after spending all of the pre-draft process standing up for him when the analytics types were way too down on him (I also grabbed him in most of my devy leagues last year). I still like Thomas quite a bit and think he landed in a solid spot. However, I also think the big passing stats put up in New Orleans obscure how hard it will be for Thomas to make a major fantasy impact and this isn't an ideal landing spot. Cooks is going to get plenty of targets again. The Saints throw it to their running backs more than any team in the league. Coby Fleener got more than $7M per year and the Saints have always targeted their tight ends heavily. Plus, Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman are solid players as well who are going to get their targets. Maybe Thomas ends up being such a big-time receiver that the Saints break tendencies and feed both him and Cooks at the expense of the tight ends, backs and other receivers, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

9. Hunter Henry- I've been surprised that Henry is falling to the late-2nd in most dynasty drafts. I absolutely love him at that point and am willing to take him higher. Probably going to end up on most of my teams. We are talking about a guy who went at the very top of the 2nd-round to one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. A team that features the TE in the passing game very heavily. I watched McCoy and Telesco's press conference after this pick and they repeatedly mentioned that while he's a solid blocker, they drafted him for his receiving abilities and expect him to be a huge part of the pass offense going forward. He's a 4.66 40 guy, so he's not a slug. It might take a couple years (once Gates retires), but I love Henry's chances of developing into a fantasy TE1 and don't think the Jason Witten comparisons are too far off. Henry made a number of big plays as an 18-year old true freshman in the SEC and just turned 21 a few months ago. There's more upside here than most seem to think.

10. Tyler Boyd- In a normal year, Boyd would probably be a late-2nd rounder. I don't love him and the landing spot isn't great for him long-term. But he is a slot guy with great hands and you never know what the future holds situationally. If he ever gets heavy target-volume, he does have some real PPR upside and he could be a bye-week flex option right away as a rookie. Unless I really need a RB, I'm inclined to bet on the skill-set and 2nd-round draft status given how mediocre the rest of the options look. 

11. C.J. Prosise- I've been too high on Thomas Rawls this spring and overrated him a bit, but I still think Rawls is the guy to own in Seattle. Prosise is worth a late-1st in this draft class though because if he does end up hitting, the upside is pretty immense. Seattle tends to lean pretty heavily on one running back most games and if Rawls gets hurt or Prosise simply beats him out (impressive physical package), he has legit fantasy RB1 upside which is more than you can say about most of the backs in this class.

12. Kenneth Dixon- It's hard to get too excited about a guy drafted 134th overall. Even if he does beat out Javorius Allen and Justin Forsett this year, does he just get replaced next year by one of the half-dozen highly talented 2017 backs? I do like Dixon's intangibles and if you have to bet on one of the Day 3 backs, Trestman's love of throwing to the running back gives Dixon some real upside.

13. DeAndre Washington- A personal favorite of mine amongst the guys going late (seems to be a 3rd rounder in the early drafts that have been posted). So obviously you don't need to take him at the top of round 2 to get him. Reggie McKenzie was pretty glowing in his praise of Washington and he has very little competition to win the #2 job in Oakland right away. I wasn't real impressed with Latavius Murray last year and it wouldn't take much (an injury, some fumbles) for the door to open wide for Washington to take on an even bigger role. Plus, the Oakland OL looks pretty loaded and that is clearly an ascending offense so if things do unexpectedly fall into place for Washington, the fantasy upside for PPR leagues is immense.

14. Devontae Booker 

15. Kenyan Drake

16. Carson Wentz

17. Tyler Higbee

18. Jared Goff

19. Leonte Carroo

20. Austin Hooper

21. Wendell Smallwood

22. Paul Perkins

23. Jordan Howard

24. Malcolm Mitchell

25. Tyler Ervin

26. Pharoh Cooper

27. Braxton Miller

28. Jordan Payton

29. Seth DeValve

30. Demarcus Robinson

Dan Hindery said:

5. Derrick Henry- Went and looked at the details of Murray's contract. I look at it as $12M in 2016 with options years in 2017 and 2018 of just $3M each. Unless he falls off a cliff (definitely possible), good chance that DeMarco hangs around for a few years and makes this a RBBC for a while. If you're drafting Henry here, it's more of a long-term bet on his talent (or because you don't like any of the other options). 

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Maybe I'm wrong here, but Murray's contract was structured so there is essentially no way to avoid a huge cap hit until AFTER the 2017 season.  In other words, he's got two years: a) in front of b) fighting off c) being pissed off that he is behind Henry on the depth chart.  If they cut him before/during 2017 they have a $6.25MM in dead cap for the 2017 year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/demarco-murray/

So if you take Henry, you're taking him hoping that he spends two years developing into a feature back and taking over that role when he is 24 years old... 

Nice list!

i particularly like the call on DeAndre Washington. I liked him a lot as well.

I completely agree with you about the reasoning discussed in regards to Fuller. The NFL is certainly working with more information than we are in their decision making process about picking players. However NFL teams are not drafting players for fantasy football. So what they consider being worth a 1st round pick can be quite different than what a 1st round pick is for FF.

I considered the other WR picks by Houston to be a clue about how they intend to use Fuller. If Braxton Miller should win the slot WR for them for example, then that limits Fullers opportunities for high percentage plays underneath while Fuller is clearing out with deep routes. They also have Jaelen Strong from last year that they may want to use situationally as well. A new QB that we are not sure will be the long term answer may influence which WR are getting the targets as well. With respect to the NFL evaluation process I don't think Fuller is a worth as much in fantasy.

-CE- said:

So if you take Henry, you're taking him hoping that he spends two years developing into a feature back and taking over that role when he is 24 years old... 

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...or you hope he beats out Murray for the #1 role before then.

spider321 said:

...or you hope he beats out Murray for the #1 role before then.

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What do you think those chances are?

-CE- said:

What do you think those chances are?

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Well, he's younger, bigger, stronger, faster, and imo, more talented than Murray, so I'm gonna say at least 60%.

You?

I was with you for most of the first 10 picks. After that point, my thinking diverges a bit. I've seen a lot of people using earlyish picks on guys like Booker, Howard, Dixon, Perkins, and Washington. I've never been a big fan of drafting these good situation-mediocre talent RBs. Some of them pan out (i.e. Morris, Murray, Stacy), but it's rare and the staying power tends to be minimal. I'd probably push up the QB/WR alternatives. That being said, this also looks like a terrible WR class, so the early RB reaches may simply be a function of nonexistent draft depth.

-CE- said:

Maybe I'm wrong here, but Murray's contract was structured so there is essentially no way to avoid a huge cap hit until AFTER the 2017 season.  In other words, he's got two years: a) in front of b) fighting off c) being pissed off that he is behind Henry on the depth chart.  If they cut him before/during 2017 they have a $6.25MM in dead cap for the 2017 year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/demarco-murray/

So if you take Henry, you're taking him hoping that he spends two years developing into a feature back and taking over that role when he is 24 years old... 




 

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You're not wrong about the cap hits, but in terms of the decisions that Tennesse faces each offseason, the way I described it is accurate:

2016- He got $12M fully guaranteed, so even if they cut him tomorrow, they are out that $12M. Some of that guarantee is portions of future salaries, but it is a sunk cost at this point and won't really have any impact on their decisions about whether to keep him or not. 

2017- $3M of his $6.25M is already guaranteed (sunk cost). So their decision whether to keep him or not comes down entirely to whether they want to pay the $3.25M unguaranteed portion of his contract.

2018- $3M of his $6.25M contract is guaranteed. There's also a $250K workout bonus. So it comes down to whether they want to pay the additional unguaranteed $3.5M or not. All the rest is sunk cost. 

So looking at it from Tennessee's perspective, they will have to ignore the sunk costs and the future decisions will come down to whether he's worth $3.25M in 2017 and $3.5M in 2018. The non-guaranteed numbers are pretty small, so I think there's a good chance he makes it through the first three years of his deal.

EBF said:

I was with you for most of the first 10 picks. After that point, my thinking diverges a bit. I've seen a lot of people using earlyish picks on guys like Booker, Howard, Dixon, Perkins, and Washington. I've never been a big fan of drafting these good situation-mediocre talent RBs. Some of them pan out (i.e. Morris, Murray, Stacy), but it's rare and the staying power tends to be minimal. I'd probably push up the QB/WR alternatives. That being said, this also looks like a terrible WR class, so the early RB reaches may simply be a function of nonexistent draft depth.




 




 

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Think we're pretty much on the same page in terms of strategy. I almost always opt for early-round WRs over 3rd-day running backs and that is reflected in my rankings. It's why I went against the grain a little bit with Fuller and Hunter Henry over guys like Dixon. In fact, I have every receiver and tight end that went in the first 80 picks overall listed in my top 10.

You can argue for the two late-3rd round receivers (Braxton Miller and Leonte Carroo) over the 3rd/4th round RBs if you want. Or Austin Hooper (who went 81st overall). But I'm not missing any of the WR/TE that went early, so that's just arguing about mid-round receivers vs. mid-round running backs. 

As far as how early to pull the trigger on the QBs, I think it comes down to your roster. But the position is just so deep now that even if you "hit" on a quarterback (like Jameis Winston), you still aren't gaining a particularly valuable piece. I'm fine with those guys in round 2, but personally wouldn't draft either of them in the late-1st round. I'm in ~10 one quarterback dynasty leagues and I can't think of a single one where I'm particularly "needy" at QB. I think the vast majority of dynasty owners are in the same boat.

Demarco's older than i thought, 29 at this years Superbowl.

Dan Hindery said:

As far as how early to pull the trigger on the QBs, I think it comes down to your roster. But the position is just so deep now that even if you "hit" on a quarterback (like Jameis Winston), you still aren't gaining a particularly valuable piece. I'm fine with those guys in round 2, but personally wouldn't draft either of them in the late-1st round. I'm in ~10 one quarterback dynasty leagues and I can't think of a single one where I'm particularly "needy" at QB. I think the vast majority of dynasty owners are in the same boat.

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Yea, all of that makes sense. That's the big problem with the QB position in 1 QB leagues. With 32 NFL teams and only 10-16 FF teams, most of the FF teams will be well-stocked at the position and thus there won't be any demand. I just got Goff and Wentz with picks 11 and 18 in a 14 team 1 QB league with dev players (Zeke, Treadwell, M Thomas already rostered). I wasn't laughing all the way to the bank or anything like that because after looking at previous years before I made the picks, that's about the range where the top QB tends to go in our rookie draft.

There's still a part of me that finds it absurd to consider taking a 4th-5th round RB over a guy who went #1 or #2 in the NFL draft. My issue with the likes of Dixon/Howard/Washington is that 10 guys of that caliber enter the league every season. Even if you happen to get one useful season out of them, the odds of them doing a Zac Stacy are so high. These guys are imminently replaceable and so what you're really drafting is the opportunity and the vague hope that the player in question will show enough to dissuade his team for dipping back into the draft pool for a superior talent the next year (i.e. the Stacy --> Mason --> Gurley food chain). I've always had a lot of trouble pulling the trigger on those players, even if they can pan out sometimes.

just one point in reading your analysis of Fuller. First wr to go in the draft, smaller speed guy, going to a place with qb issues. Am I talking about Will Fuller or Tavon Austin?? just saying be careful on relying on the expertise of nfl GM's for fantasy relevance

EBF said:

Yea, all of that makes sense. That's the big problem with the QB position in 1 QB leagues. With 32 NFL teams and only 10-16 FF teams, most of the FF teams will be well-stocked at the position and thus there won't be any demand. I just got Goff and Wentz with picks 11 and 18 in a 14 team 1 QB league with dev players (Zeke, Treadwell, M Thomas already rostered). I wasn't laughing all the way to the bank or anything like that because after looking at previous years before I made the picks, that's about the range where the top QB tends to go in our rookie draft.

There's still a part of me that finds it absurd to consider taking a 4th-5th round RB over a guy who went #1 or #2 in the NFL draft. My issue with the likes of Dixon/Howard/Washington is that 10 guys of that caliber enter the league every season. Even if you happen to get one useful season out of them, the odds of them doing a Zac Stacy are so high. These guys are imminently replaceable and so what you're really drafting is the opportunity and the vague hope that the player in question will show enough to dissuade his team for dipping back into the draft pool for a superior talent the next year (i.e. the Stacy --> Mason --> Gurley food chain). I've always had a lot of trouble pulling the trigger on those players, even if they can pan out sometimes.




 




 

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You mention Zac Stacy, but I think the hope is that you hit on a guy who can make a PPR impact like Devonta Freeman out of the 4th round. Or David Johnson who was pick #86 last year.  That's one guy in each of the last two drafts that look like pretty big hits so far. Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, and Lamar Miller were also 3rd or 4th rounders. So it's not like your odds of hitting on one of those 3rd/4th round RBs any given year are astronomical. 

On the QBs, I think the larger the league, the more value those guys have. I'm in a few 14-teamers and it definitely changes the math a little bit. Everyone wants to have a decent backup, so it adds some value and you can get some decent offers if you "hit" on a young guy. You also can't normally find decent starters on the wire in the bigger leagues so you have to have your backup on roster. Whereas in my 12-teamers, you can usually grab somebody like Alex Smith off waivers for a bye-week start or whatever. And almost everybody has a pair of good QBs in a 12-team, so what's the point in round 1?

Dan Hindery said:

Whereas in my 12-teamers, you can usually grab somebody like Alex Smith off waivers for a bye-week start or whatever. And almost everybody has a pair of good QBs in a 12-team, so what's the point in round 1?

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Exactly why I pass on QBs early in rookie drafts.  There are always worthy bye-week filler QBs on the waivers.  Really depends on your league and how QBs are treated.  Mine only care about the elites, and the rookie QBs always fall in the drafts.  In the past 10 years I think only Luck and RG3 were drafted in the 1st round.  Before that I might have to go back to Vick and Peyton Manning.  

Regarding the NFL having more insight into these guys than the fantasy community, just based on recollection it seems like when the fantasy community is generally down on a player that was drafted highly in the NFL, the fantasy community ends up being right a majority of the time.  In fact I'm struggling to think of a guy that was drafted disproportionally lowly in fantasy drafts compared to the NFL draft (relative to other skill position players) where the player actually ended up being good, especially good for fantasy.  

The poster boy for this is of course Darrius Heyward-Bey who I believe had a fantasy ADP all the way back in the 2nd round despite being a top 10 pick in the NFL draft and the first WR/RB taken.

FreeBaGeL said:

Regarding the NFL having more insight into these guys than the fantasy community, just based on recollection it seems like when the fantasy community is generally down on a player that was drafted highly in the NFL, the fantasy community ends up being right a majority of the time.  In fact I'm struggling to think of a guy that was drafted disproportionally lowly in fantasy drafts compared to the NFL draft (relative to other skill position players) where the player actually ended up being good, especially good for fantasy.  

The poster boy for this is of course Darrius Heyward-Bey who I believe had a fantasy ADP all the way back in the 2nd round despite being a top 10 pick in the NFL draft and the first WR/RB taken.

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Only one that comes to mind is Jarvis Landry.

Dan Hindery said:

You mention Zac Stacy, but I think the hope is that you hit on a guy who can make a PPR impact like Devonta Freeman out of the 4th round. Or David Johnson who was pick #86 last year.  That's one guy in each of the last two drafts that look like pretty big hits so far. Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, and Lamar Miller were also 3rd or 4th rounders. So it's not like your odds of hitting on one of those 3rd/4th round RBs any given year are astronomical. 

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I would be reluctant to call Freeman and Johnson big hits at this juncture. I like David Johnson, but his dynasty ADP terrifies me (top 5 dynasty RB -- 581 career rushing yards). Freeman has only had one good season. A year ago it looked like Atlanta wasn't thrilled with the idea of him as their starter (hey spent a reasonably high pick on Tevin Coleman). When young backs come in and flash potential, people tend to envision years of the best case scenario. There are lot of ways it can go though. Sometimes you get the real deal like MJD or LeSean McCoy. Sometimes you get something in between like Cedric Benson or Rashard Mendenhall. And sometimes you get a bag of dog poo like Kevin Jones, Steve Slaton, Trent Richardson, Julius Jones, or Zac Stacy.

I went back a number of years ago and looked at historical hit rates for the various draft rounds. My recollection is that it was something like 50/35/30/10 for the first four rounds and negligible for the last three. With that being the case, I tend to view 2nd-3rd round prospects differently from 4th rounders, and 4th rounders differently from 5th-UDFA. There have been a number of outstanding backs out of the 3rd round (Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray). David Johnson has a chance to be another. Once you get past that round, it starts looking quite a bit worse.

There's also the issue of how you define success. Was Zac Stacy a success? He had one very useful year, so he did provide some return on his rookie pick investment. More than say...Justin Hunter. On the other hand, it didn't last very long. Players who can do it for several years are exponentially more valuable than guys who have a brief window of utility and are never heard from again. I feel like most of the late round "hits" are shaded towards the former. They're guys who come in, capitalize on a decent opportunity for a year or two, and then fade into obscurity. Stacy is a great example. You mentioned Lamar Miller as a success story, but he could very well end up being the same. He only has one 1,000+ yard season in four years (barely) and was not retained by the team that drafted him. I would consider him a moderate success, but he may not be a true franchise back.

If you look at a list of the NFL's active rushing leaders then you should quickly notice a pattern with regards to their draft position. 9 of the top 10 were picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Arian Foster is the only outlier. There are a handful of low pick/UDFA types in the next 10 (Fred Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Alfred Morris, Chris Ivory, LeGarrette Blount). Those are some useful players for sure, but we can probably agree that for the most part those guys have been "supporting cast" types for FF teams rather than marquee attractions throughout most of their careers. I think most of this supports the idea that non-premium RB prospects are big, big longshots to become dynasty cornerstones. With the constant roster churn that the NFL draft ensures, there's just too much competition for mediocre players to be able to hold down starting jobs and the NFL is good enough at identifying premium RB talents that they rarely let them slide much deeper than the first 100-120 picks.

I look at RBs like Paul Perkins and Jordan Howard as penny stocks. They might pop big, but the more likely scenario is that they never rush for more than 500 yards in a season. There's nothing wrong with taking shots on this kind of player if the price is right. The hard part is determining when you're getting the right price. Do you pass on a QB like Wentz or Lynch for them in a small 1QB league where RB/WR are stressed? The VBD guys might be able to answer that for you, but my sense is that it would probably be a spotty mathematical play. That's why I never seem to end up with these guys on my roster. Other people are always willing to pay more to find out about them than I am. I tend to either pay big for a premium guy (i.e. 1st-3rd round backs) and/or get the low-opportunity guys who fall because they have no immediate path to playing time.

FreeBaGeL said:

Regarding the NFL having more insight into these guys than the fantasy community, just based on recollection it seems like when the fantasy community is generally down on a player that was drafted highly in the NFL, the fantasy community ends up being right a majority of the time.  In fact I'm struggling to think of a guy that was drafted disproportionally lowly in fantasy drafts compared to the NFL draft (relative to other skill position players) where the player actually ended up being good, especially good for fantasy.  

The poster boy for this is of course Darrius Heyward-Bey who I believe had a fantasy ADP all the way back in the 2nd round despite being a top 10 pick in the NFL draft and the first WR/RB taken.




 

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There are plenty of examples that go the other way.

Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham are recent examples. Benjamin was a 1st round NFL pick who fell pretty far in dynasty drafts, especially the early ones. He was going in round 2 in a lot of the early rookie drafts and many in the fantasy community were advocating for guys like Isaiah Crowell and Cody Latimer ahead of him. That same year, I regularly saw Davante Adams going ahead of OBJ who went a full round earlier in the NFL draft. Also saw OBJ falling below Cooks, Sankey, Hyde and Matthews pretty regularly. I actually got OBJ at 2.03 of a combined devy/rookie draft two years ago as one example (after every one of the guys I just mentioned was off the board).

How about Jarvin Landry? He was a consensus 3rd round rookie draft pick despite going in round 2 of the NFL draft. I just checked some past results and in one crazy example, I got him at pick 12.11 (#165 overall) of a high-stakes 14-team PPR startup draft in 2014 (Riley Cooper went one pick ahead). "Fantasy community" wasn't a fan of Landry. 

Zach Ertz is another. He was regularly going in the 3rd round two years ago despite going at the top of the 2nd round in the NFL. Just looked back at some of those old drafts and he went behind guys like Mike Gillislee and Jonathan Franklin, both of whom the fantasy community liked. Looks like Hunter Henry is in the same boat based upon the early draft results I'm seeing (going behind a bunch of Day 3 running backs).

John Brown was a 3rd round NFL pick who was a complete after-thought in rookie drafts with a bunch of later-round picks going ahead of him. 

Last year, many people were taking David Cobb ahead of 1st rounder Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett is still an unknown, but he has quite a bit more value than Cobb. I feel like there's maybe a parallel this year between Kenneth Dixon/Paul Perkins and Will Fuller? I actually like Dixon decently well, but I don't think he should be going ahead of Fuller when he went 100+ picks after him in the draft. (And in only rookie draft so far, Dixon went 8 picks ahead of Fuller. Perkins went 4 picks ahead.)

Those are off the top of my head...

Just something I've noticed being in a lot of leagues, but the owners that are consistently drafting the David Cobb, Roy Helu, Paul Perkins types based upon hype/fit instead of the 1st/2nd round NFL picks that some claim are "overrated" usually end up being the cellar-dwellers. 

FreeBaGeL said:

Regarding the NFL having more insight into these guys than the fantasy community, just based on recollection it seems like when the fantasy community is generally down on a player that was drafted highly in the NFL, the fantasy community ends up being right a majority of the time.  In fact I'm struggling to think of a guy that was drafted disproportionally lowly in fantasy drafts compared to the NFL draft (relative to other skill position players) where the player actually ended up being good, especially good for fantasy.  

The poster boy for this is of course Darrius Heyward-Bey who I believe had a fantasy ADP all the way back in the 2nd round despite being a top 10 pick in the NFL draft and the first WR/RB taken.

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Oh, it happens. Maurice Jones-Drew is a great example. 2nd round NFL pick. Fell to the 2nd round of most rookie drafts because people viewed him as just a return man/niche player. If Tyler Lockett pans out, he'll be another. Cam Newton. Kelvin Benjamin. DeMarco Murray. Russell Wilson. TY Hilton. Emmanuel Sanders. John Brown. They had some fans, but my recollection is that most of these players were viewed as relatively weak prospects for where they were drafted. I think most of them were underdrafted in rookie drafts based on where the NFL took them. Sometimes the community gets it right (AJ Jenkins?), but many times the picks that people hate turn out pretty well. It's way too early to call Ty Montgomery a success, but he's another guy that no one liked. I got him deeeep in a lot of drafts last year because people were passing on him for 4th-7th round WRs that they thought were better, and some of those players aren't even in the NFL anymore after just one season.

QBs aren't really relevant because their real life value is completely disproportional to their fantasy value.  They're not drafted later in fantasy because people don't think they're going to be as good as NFL teams do, they get drafted later because QBs are worth very little in fantasy and a whole ton in the NFL.  In start 2qb leagues Russell Wilson's ADP was mid-2nd round and he was the 20th skill position player taken, relative to the NFL draft where he was the 25th skill position player taken.

I was largely talking about guys that the NFL thought enough of to draft early.  Once we get down into rounds 4 and beyond (maybe even earlier) we're really splitting hairs as no one really thought that much of them on either side.  That's really different from guys were the NFL feels "high" about them to draft them early like Fuller/DHB, etc.  But if we want to count them it doesn't really help the argument that the NFL knows better because for every TY Hilton there are 15 Joe Adams' or Devin Wylie's that the NFL thought was good enough to go in that area but no one in the fantasy community cared at all about.  So 14 for the fantasy community and 1 for the NFL.  Not quite convincing that the NFL knows better.  Not that Hilton was necessarily "highly" thought of as the 14th WR off the board in the NFL.  Doesn't quite fit the mold of players that the NFL thought highly of but even if we start counting these guys it only strengthens the argument that the NFL doesn't know better, not weakens it.

None of that is to mention that a lot of the other guys don't really fit the mold at all.  Tyler Lockett was the 18th skill position player selected in the NFL draft and had an ADP of 19 in rookie drafts according to MFL.  He was actually drafted higher amongst WRs in fantasy (8th) than he was in the NFL (10th).

I don't have ADP data on the days back when MJD and guys were coming into the league but I went back and looked at my dynasty league that was running then and he went 1.06.  DeMarco Murray had an ADP of 11 in MFL (went 1.12 in my league) after being a 3rd round pick in the NFL as the 20th position player taken.  Not sure in what world that qualifies as the NFL being higher on him than the fantasy community (if anything it was the opposite).

OBJ ADP was 6th after being the 4th position player taken in the NFL draft.  Lower than he should have been but a long way from fantasy being really down on him compared to the NFL.  Didn't he also have an injury while some fantasy drafts were still going on that drove his value down more?  Still, he and Landry are probably the best examples, though his was more people being high on a lot of guys in that year's strong class than low on him.

Benjamin 7th position player taken in the NFL draft, ADP 1.08, a wash.

Yeah the fantasy community is always going to bump RBs up a bit especially with the scarcity of the position right now, and that's going to bump some guys down a little bit, but that's a pretty big difference than the community being "down" on guys, even relative to their own position, like it is with Fuller.  Once we get down to the middle/end of the draft we can pick and choose some guys like Montgomery out but that opens you up to about 1,000 guys that the fantasy community was right about relative to the NFL.  It definitely doesn't come close to swinging the odds in the NFL's favor.

Was excited to see this thread, was hoping for more rankings though.

Here are my rankings at this point.  Dynasty-based, not redraft.  

1.  Zeke  RB DAL

2.  Doctson  WR WAS

3.  Coleman  WR CLE

4.  Treadwell  WR MIN

5.  Shepard  WR NYG

6.  Thomas  WR NO

7.  Henry  RB TEN

8.  Dixon  RB BAL

9.  Carroo  WR MIA

10.  Booker  RB DEN

11.  Perkins  RB NYG

12.  Howard  RB CHI

13.  Boyd  WR CIN

14.  Prosise  RB SEA

15.  Fuller  WR HOU

16.  Mitchell  WR NE

17.  Henry  TE SD

18.  Wentz  QB PHI

19.  Goff  QB LA

20.  Lynch  QB DEN

21.  Marshall  RB WAS

22.  Thomas  WR LA

23.  Drake  RB MIA

24.  Cooper  WR LA

25.  Williams  RB BUF

EBF while what you are saying is true, it isn't every year that a great RB comes along who can be a difference maker for your team for more than a season or two. In fact the average number of top 12 seasons for the best of the best RB over the past 25 years has been two.

So what you are saying in regards to RB pertains to like 90% of the entire RB population. If a season like Zac Stacy put up isn't good enough for you (lots of people were saying he wasn't worth drafting at all) then you are seriously limiting your options. There are only a couple RB in the league right now who might fit the requirements you describe and they are not cheap.

Dan Hindery said:

You're not wrong about the cap hits, but in terms of the decisions that Tennesse faces each offseason, the way I described it is accurate:

2016- He got $12M fully guaranteed, so even if they cut him tomorrow, they are out that $12M. Some of that guarantee is portions of future salaries, but it is a sunk cost at this point and won't really have any impact on their decisions about whether to keep him or not. 

2017- $3M of his $6.25M is already guaranteed (sunk cost). So their decision whether to keep him or not comes down entirely to whether they want to pay the $3.25M unguaranteed portion of his contract.

2018- $3M of his $6.25M contract is guaranteed. There's also a $250K workout bonus. So it comes down to whether they want to pay the additional unguaranteed $3.5M or not. All the rest is sunk cost. 

So looking at it from Tennessee's perspective, they will have to ignore the sunk costs and the future decisions will come down to whether he's worth $3.25M in 2017 and $3.5M in 2018. The non-guaranteed numbers are pretty small, so I think there's a good chance he makes it through the first three years of his deal.

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Not sure why the new interface doesn't post the previous quote as well, but I think you're looking at this incorrectly and @-CE- is right. 

The Titans structured Murray's contract to have ~$6.25MM annually with $12.5MM guaranteed, with relatively equal cap hits throughout.  Murray's getting $12.5MM no matter what... and if they cut him tomorrow, the cap hit would be $12.25MM.  Next year another $6.25MM is guaranteed (to get him to his $12.5MM total), so odds are he's on the roster in 2017 as well... would make no sense to eat the $6MM.

Where I think you're misinterpreting this is after his 2017 season.  Murray's contract allows the Titans to cut him free and clear after 2017 and save themselves $12.75MM over the next two years.  There's no dead money remaining following 2017 as he'll have already received his $12.5MM guaranteed in 2016 and 2017.  All that remains is his salary for 2018 and 2019 at $6.25MM and $6.5MM respectively.  His contract following 2017 is essentially equivalent to 2 1-year TEAM OPTIONS at over $6MM per.  It's not a $3MM decision... it's a $6MM+ decision.

The correct way to view this situation for 2018 is whether or not the Titans want to pay a 30-YO RB $6.25MM to stay on the team, or do they want to hand over the reins to the 24-YO bruiser in Henry who's a heckuva lot cheaper. 

Hunter Henry shouldn't be in the top 24 on in any rookie list.  He's not that gifted.  Not bad, just not that good either.  He's a poor man's Kyle Rudolph and I'm being kind.  Not to mention he will probably have to play 2nd fiddle to Gates for 2 or 3 years.,  It's a poor year for TEs for sure.

JohnnyU said:

Hunter Henry shouldn't be in the top 24 on in any rookie list.  He's not that gifted.  Not bad, just not that good either.  He's a poor man's Kyle Rudolph and I'm being kind.  Not to mention he will probably have to play 2nd fiddle to Gates for 2 or 3 years.,  It's a poor year for TEs for sure.

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Gates turns 36 in June.

I admittedly haven't looked at Hunter Henry very much, but this class as a whole feels pretty lackluster outside the top 3-5.  That said, either an NFL made an egregious error drafting Hunter Henry with the 35th overall pick (given we know he's not much of a blocker), or they know more than we do?

Dr. Octopus said:

Gates turns 36 in June.

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That means he probably has at least 2 years left.

JohnnyU said:

That means he probably has at least 2 years left.

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TEs don't age well and he's starting to show signs of serious decline already. I wouldn't be shocked if this is his last season.

JohnnyU said:

That means he probably has at least 2 years left.

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Even if Gates sucks you are assuming SD can identify their best option at TE. Lol @ that assumption.  

Milkman said:

Even if Gates sucks you are assuming SD can identify their best option at TE. Lol @ that assumption.  

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You must have meant this quote to someone else.  I'm saying Gates won't suck and probably has 2 years left.

Dr. Octopus said:

TEs don't age well and he's starting to show signs of serious decline already. I wouldn't be shocked if this is his last season.

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I wouldn't bet a top 20 rookie pick on it.  Now if it was OJ Howard (Alabama TE will be drafted next year)  it would be a different story.  I look at someone like Jesse James playing behind L Green in Pittsburgh as a better TE than Hunter Henry.

JFS171 said:

Not sure why the new interface doesn't post the previous quote as well, but I think you're looking at this incorrectly and @-CE- is right. 

The Titans structured Murray's contract to have ~$6.25MM annually with $12.5MM guaranteed, with relatively equal cap hits throughout.  Murray's getting $12.5MM no matter what... and if they cut him tomorrow, the cap hit would be $12.25MM.  Next year another $6.25MM is guaranteed (to get him to his $12.5MM total), so odds are he's on the roster in 2017 as well... would make no sense to eat the $6MM.

Where I think you're misinterpreting this is after his 2017 season.  Murray's contract allows the Titans to cut him free and clear after 2017 and save themselves $12.75MM over the next two years.  There's no dead money remaining following 2017 as he'll have already received his $12.5MM guaranteed in 2016 and 2017.  All that remains is his salary for 2018 and 2019 at $6.25MM and $6.5MM respectively.  His contract following 2017 is essentially equivalent to 2 1-year TEAM OPTIONS at over $6MM per.  It's not a $3MM decision... it's a $6MM+ decision.

The correct way to view this situation for 2018 is whether or not the Titans want to pay a 30-YO RB $6.25MM to stay on the team, or do they want to hand over the reins to the 24-YO bruiser in Henry who's a heckuva lot cheaper. 

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Thanks JFS.  I was about to ask Dan to explain it to me, but yeah - that's how I saw his contract structured as well.  It's doubtful that the Titans cut Murray in the first two years, but after the 2017 when he turns 30 years old... looks like he can be cut with no consequences.

JohnnyU said:

I wouldn't bet a top 20 rookie pick on it.  Now if it was OJ Howard (Alabama TE will be drafted next year)  it would be a different story.  I look at someone like Jesse James playing behind L Green in Pittsburgh as a better TE than Hunter Henry.

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Just out of curiosity... if Pittsburgh thought so highly of Jesse James, why sign Green in the first place?  I don't get wanting Jesse James over Hunter Henry at all...

-CE- said:

Thanks JFS.  I was about to ask Dan to explain it to me, but yeah - that's how I saw his contract structured as well.  It's doubtful that the Titans cut Murray in the first two years, but after the 2017 when he turns 30 years old... looks like he can be cut with no consequences.

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Frankly, I'm sitting at the top of Round 2 in my main dynasty league and don't really want to move up as I can't crack the top-5 without a significant outlay of resources.  As unlikely as it sounds right now, if Murray's presence, these 3-5th round RBs, and all the rookie WRs cause Henry to fall... I'll be looking to jump up and grab him. 

I know he's a unicorn from NFL back standards, but that's a high draft pick and a great QB that's going to keep that offense relevant.  For the cost of a high 2nd, I'm more than willing to wait 2 years to get a starting RB out of it.

JFS171 said:

Not sure why the new interface doesn't post the previous quote as well, but I think you're looking at this incorrectly and @-CE- is right. 

The Titans structured Murray's contract to have ~$6.25MM annually with $12.5MM guaranteed, with relatively equal cap hits throughout.  Murray's getting $12.5MM no matter what... and if they cut him tomorrow, the cap hit would be $12.25MM.  Next year another $6.25MM is guaranteed (to get him to his $12.5MM total), so odds are he's on the roster in 2017 as well... would make no sense to eat the $6MM.

Where I think you're misinterpreting this is after his 2017 season.  Murray's contract allows the Titans to cut him free and clear after 2017 and save themselves $12.75MM over the next two years.  There's no dead money remaining following 2017 as he'll have already received his $12.5MM guaranteed in 2016 and 2017.  All that remains is his salary for 2018 and 2019 at $6.25MM and $6.5MM respectively.  His contract following 2017 is essentially equivalent to 2 1-year TEAM OPTIONS at over $6MM per.  It's not a $3MM decision... it's a $6MM+ decision.

The correct way to view this situation for 2018 is whether or not the Titans want to pay a 30-YO RB $6.25MM to stay on the team, or do they want to hand over the reins to the 24-YO bruiser in Henry who's a heckuva lot cheaper. 




 

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Not to be argumentative, but I'm almost positive my interpretation is correct. 

The guarantees are spread out over 3 seasons. $6M now, $3M in 2017 and $3M in 2018. 

He has $3M of his 2018 salary already guaranteed. So when they get to 2018, they will have to decide whether to pay him an extra $3.5M or to cut him. They will NOT save $6.25M to cut him in 2018 because they are on the hook for almost half his 2018 salary no matter when they cut him. 

I think that's a relatively significant difference. Because the decision would be pretty obvious in 2018 not to pay an extra $6.5M to keep him. But since $3M is guaranteed, the decision is just whether to spend $3.5M and that could go either way. 

Here is a link to his contract details that better shows when the guarantees are setup:

http://overthecap.com/player/demarco-murray/621/

Dan Hindery said:

Not to be argumentative, but I'm almost positive my interpretation is correct. 

The guarantees are spread out over 3 seasons. $6M now, $3M in 2017 and $3M in 2018. 

He has $3M of his 2018 salary already guaranteed. So when they get to 2018, they will have to decide whether to pay him an extra $3.5M or to cut him. They will NOT save $6.25M to cut him in 2018 because they are on the hook for almost half his 2018 salary no matter when they cut him. 

I think that's a relatively significant difference. Because the decision would be pretty obvious in 2018 not to pay an extra $6.5M to keep him. But since $3M is guaranteed, the decision is just whether to spend $3.5M and that could go either way. 

Here is a link to his contract details that better shows when the guarantees are setup:

http://overthecap.com/player/demarco-murray/621/

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Not sure if you looked at the link I posted, but they've got different interpretations of the contract. 

Over the Cap has it set up like you've suggested.

Spotrac has it set like @-CE- and I have suggested. 

I don't know which one's right and which one is wrong.

One possible mistake on Over the Cap's interpretation - according to a Pro Football Talk article, the $3.25MM guaranteed for 2018 is guaranteed "only for injury at signing."

Music City Miracles describes it as follows:

So it is basically a 2-year deal worth $9 million. If the Titans want to cut him after 2017 it would only cost them $3.25 million in dead money. That is an excellent contract by Jon Robinson. The cap flexibility the team has allows them to front-load the deal and minimize the risk on the back-end. That is called win, win, win.

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JFS171 said:

Not sure if you looked at the link I posted, but they've got different interpretations of the contract. 

Over the Cap has it set up like you've suggested.

Spotrac has it set like @-CE- and I have suggested. 

I don't know which one's right and which one is wrong.

One possible mistake on Over the Cap's interpretation - according to a Pro Football Talk article, the $3.25MM guaranteed for 2018 is guaranteed "only for injury at signing."

Music City Miracles describes it as follows:




 




 





 

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I guess I am relying on what OTC posted being accurate. They're usually very good about that. 

According to OTC, the $3M guarantee for 2018 becomes fully guaranteed in 10 months if he's still on the roster next spring (March 2017). 

"Murray received $12 million in full guarantees, an increase in $3 million from his original contract. Another $3.25 million is guaranteed for injury and will become fully guaranteed in March of 2017."

So I still don't see any way in which they are able to keep him for two years and cut him before 2018 without taking that $3M cap hit in 2018. 

(btw, good discussion. I am a full-fledged contract nerd (and write a lot of contracts in my day job) and you and CE are obviously fluent in this stuff as well.) 

Dan Hindery said:

I guess I am relying on what OTC posted being accurate. They're usually very good about that. 

According to OTC, the $3M guarantee for 2018 becomes fully guaranteed in 10 months if he's still on the roster next spring (March 2017). 

"Murray received $12 million in full guarantees, an increase in $3 million from his original contract. Another $3.25 million is guaranteed for injury and will become fully guaranteed in March of 2017."

So I still don't see any way in which they are able to keep him for two years and cut him before 2018 without taking that $3M cap hit in 2018. 

(btw, good discussion. I am a full-fledged contract nerd (and write a lot of contracts in my day job) and you and CE are obviously fluent in this stuff as well.) 

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Yea, very good discussion guys.  It looks like the contract sources at rotoworld and sportrac disagree with the OTC sources.  I'd assume the OTC source is a bit more accurate as they seem to discuss it in depth... 

FreeBaGeL said:

QBs aren't really relevant because their real life value is completely disproportional to their fantasy value.  They're not drafted later in fantasy because people don't think they're going to be as good as NFL teams do, they get drafted later because QBs are worth very little in fantasy and a whole ton in the NFL.  In start 2qb leagues Russell Wilson's ADP was mid-2nd round and he was the 20th skill position player taken, relative to the NFL draft where he was the 25th skill position player taken.

I was largely talking about guys that the NFL thought enough of to draft early.  Once we get down into rounds 4 and beyond (maybe even earlier) we're really splitting hairs as no one really thought that much of them on either side.  That's really different from guys were the NFL feels "high" about them to draft them early like Fuller/DHB, etc.  But if we want to count them it doesn't really help the argument that the NFL knows better because for every TY Hilton there are 15 Joe Adams' or Devin Wylie's that the NFL thought was good enough to go in that area but no one in the fantasy community cared at all about.  So 14 for the fantasy community and 1 for the NFL.  Not quite convincing that the NFL knows better.  Not that Hilton was necessarily "highly" thought of as the 14th WR off the board in the NFL.  Doesn't quite fit the mold of players that the NFL thought highly of but even if we start counting these guys it only strengthens the argument that the NFL doesn't know better, not weakens it.

None of that is to mention that a lot of the other guys don't really fit the mold at all.  Tyler Lockett was the 18th skill position player selected in the NFL draft and had an ADP of 19 in rookie drafts according to MFL.  He was actually drafted higher amongst WRs in fantasy (8th) than he was in the NFL (10th).

I don't have ADP data on the days back when MJD and guys were coming into the league but I went back and looked at my dynasty league that was running then and he went 1.06.  DeMarco Murray had an ADP of 11 in MFL (went 1.12 in my league) after being a 3rd round pick in the NFL as the 20th position player taken.  Not sure in what world that qualifies as the NFL being higher on him than the fantasy community (if anything it was the opposite).

OBJ ADP was 6th after being the 4th position player taken in the NFL draft.  Lower than he should have been but a long way from fantasy being really down on him compared to the NFL.  Didn't he also have an injury while some fantasy drafts were still going on that drove his value down more?  Still, he and Landry are probably the best examples, though his was more people being high on a lot of guys in that year's strong class than low on him.

Benjamin 7th position player taken in the NFL draft, ADP 1.08, a wash.

Yeah the fantasy community is always going to bump RBs up a bit especially with the scarcity of the position right now, and that's going to bump some guys down a little bit, but that's a pretty big difference than the community being "down" on guys, even relative to their own position, like it is with Fuller.  Once we get down to the middle/end of the draft we can pick and choose some guys like Montgomery out but that opens you up to about 1,000 guys that the fantasy community was right about relative to the NFL.  It definitely doesn't come close to swinging the odds in the NFL's favor.

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I'm not gonna get into a debate about it since you've already made up your mind. That said, a lot of the ADP data you're quoting doesn't line up with my recollections or personal experience. One thing I'd point out is that ADP can vary wildly depending on when you draft. Most of my leagues have traditionally drafted within 1-2 weeks of the NFL draft. Some leagues don't draft until August. Those late leagues are probably going to skew the MFL ADP in favor of training camp/preseason buzz guys who might have otherwise slid more. For example, I just checked my HyperActive leagues and Lockett went 29th, 31st, 26th, 22nd, 23rd, and 16th. The later draft, the higher he tended to go. Still, the results don't quite line up with where you have him. 

Thinking back to previous drafts, I can recall many RBs and WRs who were picked higher in rookie drafts than where their NFL draft slot dictated they should have gone. Some of them turned out pretty well (Keenan Allen comes to mind). Some of them did not (Marcus Lattimore anyone?). In general, I don't trust the FF community's ability to distinguish a "good" X round NFL draft pick from a "bad" X round NFL draft pick. They seem to get it wrong (Kelvin Benjamin) just as often as they get it right (AJ Jenkins). If you're gonna isolate any single variable and try to use it to predict carer value, I'd trust NFL draft slot over anything else. These days I'm pretty reluctant to "jump the tracks" and jump across tiers based on my subjective opinions. Instead I use my subjective opinions to sort players within tiers. 

Do you have a more accurate source for historical rookie ADP data, maybe one that could be cut off by date to avoid late drafts?  I would actually be interested in sorting out and looking at the players that had the biggest differences between NFL draft slot (relative to other WR/RB, maybe TE) and FF draft slot and see, statistically, how this bares out over time.  Would be a good exercise to see if I should be more interested in Fuller and whomever falls into this category in future years.

Interesting debate about where to take Rookie QBs.

I'm in the middle of a start up and I took a look at what rookies where available at pick 161... and they were basically end of 2nd or beginning of 3rd round equivalents. So I took Goff believing he will likely have more residual value than any other rookie available. Sure one of the late RBs or WRs may hit, but I know Goff will be given every chance to succeed because of his draft pedigree.

Aunt Jemima said:

just one point in reading your analysis of Fuller. First wr to go in the draft, smaller speed guy, going to a place with qb issues. Am I talking about Will Fuller or Tavon Austin?? just saying be careful on relying on the expertise of nfl GM's for fantasy relevance

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Tavon was a top 30 WR last year.   Not great but if Fuller turns into another Tavon Austin, that's a successful 1.07 pick.

FUBAR said:

Tavon was a top 30 WR last year.   Not great but if Fuller turns into another Tavon Austin, that's a successful 1.07 pick.

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Watching Tavon Austin last year didn't make me feel like he "figured something out" or "turned the corner" as a receiver - he was the same poor route runner and last year just got a lot of manufactured touches.

edit: to put it in perspective 76% of his yards came after the catch... and he had 473 total yards.  Of WR's with more than 30 catches, he ranked 2nd "best" in the YAC statistic - generally an indication he's getting the ball on screens or coming out of the backfield - gadget plays.  He only caught 2 balls thrown further than 17 yards last season... so, he wasn't even really a deep threat in that respect.  I agree with EBF below, I don't think he is comparable to Fuller.

Austin and Fuller aren't very similar, but I personally wouldn't be happy with Austin's career out of the 1.07 rookie pick. Austin has been a disappointment and has only been moderately useful in FF once in three seasons. With the Rams bringing in Cooper to compete for slot touches, we may have seen Tavon's best season and it wasn't all that good.

Fuller is a totally different type of player. I think he'll be a feast-or-famine deep threat. I agree with others who say his NFL value will exceed his FF value. He'll always have to be accounted for by the defense, but at best I see a DeSean Jackson or TY Hilton type of player and I don't know if he's even that versatile.

-CE- said:

Watching Tavon Austin last year didn't make me feel like he "figured something out" or "turned the corner" as a receiver - he was the same poor route runner and last year just got a lot of manufactured touches.

edit: to put it in perspective 76% of his yards came after the catch... and he had 473 total yards.  Of WR's with more than 30 catches, he ranked 2nd "best" in the YAC statistic - generally an indication he's getting the ball on screens or coming out of the backfield - gadget plays.  He only caught 2 balls greater than 17 yards last season... so, he wasn't even really a deep threat in that respect.  I agree with EBF below, I don't think he is comparable to Fuller.

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He is different than fuller, no argument there imo.  Austin has a certain skill set, more similar to Percy Harvin in some ways.  

Fuller might be Desean Jackson like. 

EBF said:

Austin and Fuller aren't very similar, but I personally wouldn't be happy with Austin's career out of the 1.07 rookie pick. Austin has been a disappointment and has only been moderately useful in FF once in three seasons. With the Rams bringing in Cooper to compete for slot touches, we may have seen Tavon's best season and it wasn't all that good.

Fuller is a totally different type of player. I think he'll be a feast-or-famine deep threat. I agree with others who say his NFL value will exceed his FF value. He'll always have to be accounted for by the defense, but at best I see a DeSean Jackson or TY Hilton type of player and I don't know if he's even that versatile.

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Agreed that the upside is Jackson or perhaps more like Torry Smith. They may have a WR2 type season or flirt with a WR 1 season if they score a ton of TD that year. For the most part they will be boom or bust and not players I want to start on a consistent basis. Better flex players than starters for head to head leagues.

A lot of interesting points made in the last few posts.

On Tavon Austin, I think you have to be pretty intrigued by him in dynasty right now. The Rams just picked up his 5th-year option for more than $11M. They obviously value him highly. Jared Goff fits his skill-set pretty perfectly. I listened to Jeff Fisher and Les Snead's press conference and they mentioned that Goff reminded them of Tom Brady. They said his quick decision-making and fast release are where the league is headed these days and they said they could picture him running an offense like the Pats with a lot of short routes to get the ball out quickly and mentioned how tough that stuff to Edelman is to defend. Have to assume they view Austin in that Edelman role and if Goff is what they think he is, could be a major boost to Austin's value. 

On Fuller specifically, I clearly don't think you should defer completely to the NFL and have never made that argument. I have him ranked well behind Doctson, Treadwell and Shepard despite him going ahead of them in the draft. (I go back and forth between Fuller and Thomas and that's kind of a coin flip for me right now.) Where I think you should defer to the NFL decision-makers is when comparing a 1st-round WR (or RB) to guys who were taken Day 3 (or even at the very end of the 3rd round). Those Day 3 guys are just so hit or miss and I feel like taking one of them over a 1st-rounder is a reach. Fuller probably won't outperform every Day 3 RB/WR, but I count 40 Day 3 RB/WR drafted and odds are only a few of them end up having better careers. Good luck trying to predict which.

I think ZWKs post in this thread does a good job of defining the difference in draft position for RB compared to what it was in years past, as well as historical values for players drafted at a specific draft position.

If I understand Z's post correctly RB are being drafted about 8 spots lower than they were in the 90's.

His generic rankings have Fuller even higher than you based on draft position.

If these rankings were for standard scoring formats I think Fuller would be more valuable relative to the other WR because of his TD potential as a deep threat. Players such as Jackson, MIke Wallace and Smith perform better in a standard scoring format than they do in PPR. The high percentage targets (that Fuller seems unlikely to get) don't matter so much in standard because all you care about is yards and TD.

@Dan Hindery

I like most of your opinions in the OP, a couple i have thoughts on though;

Thomas at #8, dont necessarily disagree with the rank, I think however it is a great spot for a WR like him. Brees is getting older, quick throws are gonna be more common I think, and he is hopefully the DTish type guy in that offense for those situations, I think he is being under rated in PPR formats

Perkins is ranked way to low IMO

Higbee over Hooper?

This was a really good thread to read for perspectives on how rookies are valued across leagues.

One thing that caught my eye was a general tendency to assume rookies will succeed while expressing "concerns" about players who have already done something (like EBF saying he was terrified of David Johnson having a top 5 dynasty ADP, yet the general consensus among the free world (not necessarily EBF) is that Elliot is already a top 5 dynasty RB. 

I think there is something to consider in that.