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Trip's top 5 Overvalued (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

TripItUp

Footballguy
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?

 
Cobb is a ppr beast this year.

Graham will probably haul in 75 plus and 10 TD's.

Lynch is not human.

Anderson and Crowell I agree with.

 
R. Wilson - QB3 and early 3rd round ADP. Too many good QBs available later to bother with him at this price.

CJ Anderson - RB6 ADP but I'd gladly take any of the 4 going right after him instead; Forte, Murray, Hill & McCoy.

Hopkins - WR13 ADP and there are too many cheaper options for a WR2 IMO.

Cooks - WR14 ADP... See above.

J. Landry - WR24 ADP and there seems to be a lot of competition for targets in that Mia offense.

 
TripItUp said:
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?
Click to expand...
That is just what Cobb does and how Cobb is used. It isn't something new. In his 3 years as a starter, he has scored 24 TDs in 37 games. His career is 065 TDs per game wich over a full season translates to 10.4 So maybe he doesn't get 12 like he did last year, but he is as close to a lock for 1,100 and 10 TDs as you can get. Maybe his ceiling isn't what a Hopkins or Cooks has. However, he has a much much better floor.

 
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?
Click to expand...
That is just what Cobb does and how Cobb is used. It isn't something new. In his 3 years as a starter, he has scored 24 TDs in 37 games. His career is 065 TDs per game wich over a full season translates to 10.4 So maybe he doesn't get 12 like he did last year, but he is as close to a lock for 1,100 and 10 TDs as you can get. Maybe his ceiling isn't what a Hopkins or Cooks has. However, he has a much much better floor.
Click to expand...
Does anyone here think Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing for at least 36-40 TDs? Those TDs have to go to somebody, so not sure why one would discount Cobb for scoring TDs. As you say, it's what he does and what this offense does.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?
Click to expand...
That is just what Cobb does and how Cobb is used. It isn't something new. In his 3 years as a starter, he has scored 24 TDs in 37 games. His career is 065 TDs per game wich over a full season translates to 10.4 So maybe he doesn't get 12 like he did last year, but he is as close to a lock for 1,100 and 10 TDs as you can get. Maybe his ceiling isn't what a Hopkins or Cooks has. However, he has a much much better floor.
Click to expand...
Does anyone here think Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing for at least 36-40 TDs? Those TDs have to go to somebody, so not sure why one would discount Cobb for scoring TDs. As you say, it's what he does and what this offense does.
Click to expand...
Agree.

I guess I can see the other side of the tale where people see a really high number and just wonder if it regresses to the mean and comes down. The Packers might also be willing to spread the love around.

But at the end of the day, I'm very comfortable taking Cobb based on his numbers last year. I think it is every bit as likely it is more of the same as it would be to assume it changes.

 
Shutout said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?
Click to expand...
That is just what Cobb does and how Cobb is used. It isn't something new. In his 3 years as a starter, he has scored 24 TDs in 37 games. His career is 065 TDs per game wich over a full season translates to 10.4 So maybe he doesn't get 12 like he did last year, but he is as close to a lock for 1,100 and 10 TDs as you can get. Maybe his ceiling isn't what a Hopkins or Cooks has. However, he has a much much better floor.
Click to expand...
Does anyone here think Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing for at least 36-40 TDs? Those TDs have to go to somebody, so not sure why one would discount Cobb for scoring TDs. As you say, it's what he does and what this offense does.
Click to expand...
Agree.

I guess I can see the other side of the tale where people see a really high number and just wonder if it regresses to the mean and comes down. The Packers might also be willing to spread the love around.

But at the end of the day, I'm very comfortable taking Cobb based on his numbers last year. I think it is every bit as likely it is more of the same as it would be to assume it changes.
Click to expand...
The question isn't whether you are comfortable taking him, but whether there are better picks at his ADP, ultimately he is overvalued.

 
If you don't believe in Anderson, maybe you will believe in the track record of DEN RBs. In the 53 regular season and post season games in DEN with Peyton at QB, their starting RB has averaged: 17.38 carries, 76.53 rushing yards, 0.566 rushing TD, 3.26 receptions, 27.89 receiving yards, and 0.09 receiving TD per game. Over a 16 game season, that works out to 278 carries, 1224 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 446 receiving yards, and 1 receiving TD.

Granted, things might change a little without Fox at HC, but that adds up to 1670/10 over the course of a season. Those numbers include everyone from Moreno, Ball, Hillman, McGahee, and Anderson. If you think Anderson will get hurt, that's one thing. But the last three seasons have shown that the primary ball handler in the DEN backfield has been money.

As a side note, I find it interesting that in this thread, Anderson gets poo pooed for only doing it in half a season, but in your all value thread, guys that did well for 6 games last year (Palmer and Fitzgerald) got gushing praise. That's why I prefer a larger sample size . . .

 
Anarchy99 said:
If you don't believe in Anderson, maybe you will believe in the track record of DEN RBs. In the 53 regular season and post season games in DEN with Peyton at QB, their starting RB has averaged: 17.38 carries, 76.53 rushing yards, 0.566 rushing TD, 3.26 receptions, 27.89 receiving yards, and 0.09 receiving TD per game. Over a 16 game season, that works out to 278 carries, 1224 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 446 receiving yards, and 1 receiving TD.

Granted, things might change a little without Fox at HC, but that adds up to 1670/10 over the course of a season. Those numbers include everyone from Moreno, Ball, Hillman, McGahee, and Anderson. If you think Anderson will get hurt, that's one thing. But the last three seasons have shown that the primary ball handler in the DEN backfield has been money.
Click to expand...
Good argument.

I do believe Denver's rushing attack will be productive, just not confident enough that CJ can do it for a full year. I'm certainly not confident enough to spend pick #6 on him...that is for certain.

 
Anarchy99 said:
As a side note, I find it interesting that in this thread, Anderson gets poo pooed for only doing it in half a season, but in your all value thread, guys that did well for 6 games last year (Palmer and Fitzgerald) got gushing praise. That's why I prefer a larger sample size . . .
Click to expand...
Different positions and larger sample size. Very few humans can be a bellcow runningback for an entire year.

I'll believe it when I see it from CJ.

 
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I suppose I should ask what you would project these guys to get a better idea as to how you think they will do and how far off you think they will produce vs. draft position.

 
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.

And I am not sure where you cam up with the #6 pick from (maybe that was just a random pick number). His ADP on MFL is pick 22 and in expert leagues it's pick 15. There might be a lag in draft results, but I think he can be had probably in the pick 8-14 range.

 
Anarchy99 said:
And I am not sure where you cam up with the #6 pick from (maybe that was just a random pick number). His ADP on MFL is pick 22 and in expert leagues it's pick 15. There might be a lag in draft results, but I think he can be had probably in the pick 8-14 range.
Click to expand...
ESPN and CBS (the two most popular league websites) both have him in the top 7.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.
Click to expand...
The dangers of extrapolation...particularly for unproven RBs.

I think CJ's ppg will start off great, however I'm questioning whether he can maintain it for 16 games and even play in 16 games. I'll take the under on both.

Won't touch at current ranking/ADP.

 
TripItUp said:
Shutout said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?
Click to expand...
That is just what Cobb does and how Cobb is used. It isn't something new. In his 3 years as a starter, he has scored 24 TDs in 37 games. His career is 065 TDs per game wich over a full season translates to 10.4 So maybe he doesn't get 12 like he did last year, but he is as close to a lock for 1,100 and 10 TDs as you can get. Maybe his ceiling isn't what a Hopkins or Cooks has. However, he has a much much better floor.
Click to expand...
Does anyone here think Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing for at least 36-40 TDs? Those TDs have to go to somebody, so not sure why one would discount Cobb for scoring TDs. As you say, it's what he does and what this offense does.
Click to expand...
Agree. I guess I can see the other side of the tale where people see a really high number and just wonder if it regresses to the mean and comes down. The Packers might also be willing to spread the love around.

But at the end of the day, I'm very comfortable taking Cobb based on his numbers last year. I think it is every bit as likely it is more of the same as it would be to assume it changes.
Click to expand...
The question isn't whether you are comfortable taking him, but whether there are better picks at his ADP, ultimately he is overvalued.
Click to expand...
Top 10 WR in ppg for 2 years in a row, in his prime, on one of the best offenses with an elite prime QB and no significant changes to the offense. Makes sense as a late 2nd round/early 3rd round to me.
 
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
Shutout said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
1. CJ Anderson - did it for 1/2 season and now he's a mid first rounder?

2. Marshawn Lynch - 30 year old RB with arguably the most physical running style in the League...going in the 1st.

3. Randall Cobb - 2nd round ADP relies too heavily on redzone TDs

4. Jimmy Graham - The Saints offense, Seattle is not...3rd round ADP too pricey

5. Isaiah Crowell - Not an every down back.

What are yours?
Click to expand...
That is just what Cobb does and how Cobb is used. It isn't something new. In his 3 years as a starter, he has scored 24 TDs in 37 games. His career is 065 TDs per game wich over a full season translates to 10.4 So maybe he doesn't get 12 like he did last year, but he is as close to a lock for 1,100 and 10 TDs as you can get. Maybe his ceiling isn't what a Hopkins or Cooks has. However, he has a much much better floor.
Click to expand...
Does anyone here think Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing for at least 36-40 TDs? Those TDs have to go to somebody, so not sure why one would discount Cobb for scoring TDs. As you say, it's what he does and what this offense does.
Click to expand...
Agree. I guess I can see the other side of the tale where people see a really high number and just wonder if it regresses to the mean and comes down. The Packers might also be willing to spread the love around.

But at the end of the day, I'm very comfortable taking Cobb based on his numbers last year. I think it is every bit as likely it is more of the same as it would be to assume it changes.
Click to expand...
The question isn't whether you are comfortable taking him, but whether there are better picks at his ADP, ultimately he is overvalued.
Click to expand...
Top 10 WR in ppg for 2 years in a row, in his prime, on one of the best offenses with an elite prime QB and no significant changes to the offense. Makes sense as a late 2nd round/early 3rd round to me.
Click to expand...
Do you expect him to maintain his TD total from last season?

I expect him to take a hit as D coordinators try to take that option away from Rodgers.

I DO see the argument for PPR as high floor, mediocre ceiling play. Not my type of play, but I see the argument for certain PPR formats.

The premise of this thread is for nonppr, standard leagues.

 
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TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.
Click to expand...
The dangers of extrapolation...particularly for unproven RBs.

I think CJ's ppg will start off great, however I'm questioning whether he can maintain it for 16 games and even play in 16 games. I'll take the under on both.

Won't touch at current ranking/ADP.
Click to expand...
That's why I suggested using the DEN RB baseline instead of the #1 overall projection. Baseline of DEN starting RB = RB7 level of production.

And if we are in the crystal ball business, I would take the under on 16 games played for every RB. If Anderson plays all 16 games, I don't seem him producing WORSE than his predecessors, especially since he is younger than the other guys from the past few years.

I agree with you that you can't just extrapolate numbers to get to a full year conclusion, which is why I thought your ARI value picks were going to end up off base. IMO, I would set the middle ground as the upside for these types of situations. So halfway between their career averages and their brief period of higher production. In Anderson's case, that would still have him worth his draft stock. In the case of Palmer and Fitzgerald, it probably would not get them to be fantasy start worthy.

 
I'm highly concerned about CJ at his price for a couple of other reasons not really mentioned. They lost their starting LT. They lost their starting TE. Manning continues to get older and look less effective as the season wears on. There are still plenty of things to like about Den as a whole, but I think they regress as an offense.

 
jurb26 said:
I'm highly concerned about CJ at his price for a couple of other reasons not really mentioned. They lost their starting LT. They lost their starting TE. Manning continues to get older and look less effective as the season wears on. There are still plenty of things to like about Den as a whole, but I think they regress as an offense.
Click to expand...
I agree in principle but disagree in theory. DEN might regress as an offense for total numbers . . . but I think they may run the football more. If that is the case, that could help Anderson get the ball more.

Also, didn't they lose their LT last year or the year before? And their RB numbers were still very good in 2012 without Thomas. I don't think the Broncos offense drops much until Manning hangs them up.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I agree with you that you can't just extrapolate numbers to get to a full year conclusion, which is why I thought your ARI value picks were going to end up off base. IMO, I would set the middle ground as the upside for these types of situations. So halfway between their career averages and their brief period of higher production. In Anderson's case, that would still have him worth his draft stock. In the case of Palmer and Fitzgerald, it probably would not get them to be fantasy start worthy.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, that is a reasonable argument.

Out of curiosity, where do you have CJ's overall ranking?

 
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
And I am not sure where you cam up with the #6 pick from (maybe that was just a random pick number). His ADP on MFL is pick 22 and in expert leagues it's pick 15. There might be a lag in draft results, but I think he can be had probably in the pick 8-14 range.
Click to expand...
ESPN and CBS (the two most popular league websites) both have him in the top 7.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on either of those sites ever for ADP, or for that matter anything fantasy related. They may be the most popular among the guppy crowd who are not smart enough to find places like this, but that's about it.

 
Dragon1952 said:
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
And I am not sure where you cam up with the #6 pick from (maybe that was just a random pick number). His ADP on MFL is pick 22 and in expert leagues it's pick 15. There might be a lag in draft results, but I think he can be had probably in the pick 8-14 range.
Click to expand...
ESPN and CBS (the two most popular league websites) both have him in the top 7.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on either of those sites ever for ADP, or for that matter anything fantasy related. They may be the most popular among the guppy crowd who are not smart enough to find places like this, but that's about it.
Click to expand...
I don't rely on them, I use them for purposes of identifying where the crowd is at.

 
jurb26 said:
I'm highly concerned about CJ at his price for a couple of other reasons not really mentioned. They lost their starting LT. They lost their starting TE. Manning continues to get older and look less effective as the season wears on. There are still plenty of things to like about Den as a whole, but I think they regress as an offense.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Cecil can probably answer this better than anybody, but the Offensive line in Denver is scaring me away from taking CJ at his current price.

 
TripItUp said:
Do you expect him to maintain his TD total from last season?

I expect him to take a hit as D coordinators try to take that option away from Rodgers.
Click to expand...
How many TDs do you project for Rodgers? I think most will project 40+, so let's assume 40.

If you see Cobb's TDs going down, who is going to catch all those TDs? Let's say Jordy gets 15. Who catches the other 25+?

As was posted previously, Cobb is a virtual lock for 10+ TDs if he stays healthy.

 
jurb26 said:
I'm highly concerned about CJ at his price for a couple of other reasons not really mentioned. They lost their starting LT. They lost their starting TE. Manning continues to get older and look less effective as the season wears on. There are still plenty of things to like about Den as a whole, but I think they regress as an offense.
Click to expand...
They also lost last year's starting LG, Orlando Franklin, who was easily their best run blocker last season.

 
Just Win Baby said:
TripItUp said:
Do you expect him to maintain his TD total from last season?

I expect him to take a hit as D coordinators try to take that option away from Rodgers.
Click to expand...
How many TDs do you project for Rodgers? I think most will project 40+, so let's assume 40.

If you see Cobb's TDs going down, who is going to catch all those TDs? Let's say Jordy gets 15. Who catches the other 25+?

As was posted previously, Cobb is a virtual lock for 10+ TDs if he stays healthy.
Click to expand...
Rodgers had 38 passing TDs last year with a full 16 games played last year. I'll take the under on both.

My over/under on passing TDs for Rodgers is 35. I have Cobb projected at 8.

 
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TripItUp said:
Dragon1952 said:
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
And I am not sure where you cam up with the #6 pick from (maybe that was just a random pick number). His ADP on MFL is pick 22 and in expert leagues it's pick 15. There might be a lag in draft results, but I think he can be had probably in the pick 8-14 range.
Click to expand...
ESPN and CBS (the two most popular league websites) both have him in the top 7.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on either of those sites ever for ADP, or for that matter anything fantasy related. They may be the most popular among the guppy crowd who are not smart enough to find places like this, but that's about it.
Click to expand...
I don't rely on them, I use them for purposes of identifying where the crowd is at.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure that crowd is even the same ones that play the MFL10's, and a lot of them are pretty unsophisticated.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just Win Baby said:
jurb26 said:
I'm highly concerned about CJ at his price for a couple of other reasons not really mentioned. They lost their starting LT. They lost their starting TE. Manning continues to get older and look less effective as the season wears on. There are still plenty of things to like about Den as a whole, but I think they regress as an offense.
Click to expand...
They also lost last year's starting LG, Orlando Franklin, who was easily their best run blocker last season.
Click to expand...
They might have the worst OL in the NFL. Rookie LT, RG who is a converted defensive player with 0 starts, at C Gradkowski who was with Kubiak last year, but only played 10 snaps, Vasquesz at RG (which is fine) and Clark at RT which is the position he had until he lost his job last year. It is a major problem.

 
Dragon1952 said:
TripItUp said:
Dragon1952 said:
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
And I am not sure where you cam up with the #6 pick from (maybe that was just a random pick number). His ADP on MFL is pick 22 and in expert leagues it's pick 15. There might be a lag in draft results, but I think he can be had probably in the pick 8-14 range.
Click to expand...
ESPN and CBS (the two most popular league websites) both have him in the top 7.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on either of those sites ever for ADP, or for that matter anything fantasy related. They may be the most popular among the guppy crowd who are not smart enough to find places like this, but that's about it.
Click to expand...
I don't rely on them, I use them for purposes of identifying where the crowd is at.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure that crowd is even the same ones that play the MFL10's, and a lot of them are pretty unsophisticated.
Click to expand...
To be clear, I wouldn't touch CJ in the first 18 picks, so the ADP discussion may be a moot point.

Just noticed in ESPN's latest expert mock he went 6th overall which is consistent with ESPN and CBS ADP/rankings.

 
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.
Click to expand...
The dangers of extrapolation...particularly for unproven RBs.

I think CJ's ppg will start off great, however I'm questioning whether he can maintain it for 16 games and even play in 16 games. I'll take the under on both.

Won't touch at current ranking/ADP.
Click to expand...
Is there anything in particular that has you questioning his ability to maintain a full workload more than any other RBs?

 
TripItUp said:
Just Win Baby said:
TripItUp said:
Do you expect him to maintain his TD total from last season?

I expect him to take a hit as D coordinators try to take that option away from Rodgers.
Click to expand...
How many TDs do you project for Rodgers? I think most will project 40+, so let's assume 40.

If you see Cobb's TDs going down, who is going to catch all those TDs? Let's say Jordy gets 15. Who catches the other 25+?

As was posted previously, Cobb is a virtual lock for 10+ TDs if he stays healthy.
Click to expand...
Rodgers had 38 passing TDs last year with a full 16 games played last year. I'll take the under on both.

My over/under on passing TDs for Rodgers is 35. I have Cobb projected at 8.
Click to expand...
Over the last 4 years, Rodgers has an average of 40.4 TDs passes per 16 games ( I removed the game he was hurt in after 2 pass attempts)

2011: 48 per 16

2012: 39 per 16

2013: 34 per 16

2014: 38 per 16

35 is a very realistic number. However, it seems to near his absolute floor. What is your thought process on projecting Rodgers to near his floor?

 
Ilov80s said:
TripItUp said:
Just Win Baby said:
TripItUp said:
Do you expect him to maintain his TD total from last season?

I expect him to take a hit as D coordinators try to take that option away from Rodgers.
Click to expand...
How many TDs do you project for Rodgers? I think most will project 40+, so let's assume 40.

If you see Cobb's TDs going down, who is going to catch all those TDs? Let's say Jordy gets 15. Who catches the other 25+?

As was posted previously, Cobb is a virtual lock for 10+ TDs if he stays healthy.
Click to expand...
Rodgers had 38 passing TDs last year with a full 16 games played last year. I'll take the under on both.

My over/under on passing TDs for Rodgers is 35. I have Cobb projected at 8.
Click to expand...
Over the last 4 years, Rodgers has an average of 40.4 TDs passes per 16 games ( I removed the game he was hurt in after 2 pass attempts)

2011: 48 per 16

2012: 39 per 16

2013: 34 per 16

2014: 38 per 16

35 is a very realistic number. However, it seems to near his absolute floor. What is your thought process on projecting Rodgers to near his floor?
Click to expand...
Assuming 16 games for Rodgers is a mistake in my opinion. He has missed starts in 3 of the last 7 seasons, including 7 missed starts in 2013.

A risk that should not be overlooked for players like Cobb who are dependent on Rodgers for their production.

 
[icon] said:
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.
Click to expand...
The dangers of extrapolation...particularly for unproven RBs.

I think CJ's ppg will start off great, however I'm questioning whether he can maintain it for 16 games and even play in 16 games. I'll take the under on both.

Won't touch at current ranking/ADP.
Click to expand...
Is there anything in particular that has you questioning his ability to maintain a full workload more than any other RBs?
Click to expand...
He lacks ability. Superior talents like Jamaal Charles can get dinged up and still produce.

CJ Anderson is not a superior talent. If he was, he would have been starting much sooner last year.

 
TripItUp said:
[icon] said:
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.
Click to expand...
The dangers of extrapolation...particularly for unproven RBs.

I think CJ's ppg will start off great, however I'm questioning whether he can maintain it for 16 games and even play in 16 games. I'll take the under on both.

Won't touch at current ranking/ADP.
Click to expand...
Is there anything in particular that has you questioning his ability to maintain a full workload more than any other RBs?
Click to expand...
He lacks ability. Superior talents like Jamaal Charles can get dinged up and still produce.

CJ Anderson is not a superior talent. If he was, he would have been starting much sooner last year.
Click to expand...
Not all players start right away, Arian Foster for example only played 6 games his rookie year. Jamaal Charles didn't play much his rookie year. There are countless examples of this. Your statement is pretty silly.

 
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Personally, I have a hard time projecting any QB to have a floor of 40 passing TDs. A QB has only thrown for 40 TDs in a season 11 times. I would tend to suggest projecting a max of 35 passing TD (which has happened 29 times). Once you do that, in a lot of leagues the value for top QBs may no longer fall in the first round. IMO, expecting QBs to have career years every year is asking for trouble.

 
ImTheScientist said:
TripItUp said:
[icon] said:
TripItUp said:
Anarchy99 said:
Getting back to Anderson, in his 7 starts at the end of the year (including the playoff game), he would have been on pace for 326 fantasy points if projected over a full season. The Broncos RB numbers I posted add up to 227 fantasy point on average for a 16 game season. So clearly he did better than the average DEN RB. Even if he produced at "just" 227 points, that would have ranked as the #7 fantasy RB last year.
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The dangers of extrapolation...particularly for unproven RBs.

I think CJ's ppg will start off great, however I'm questioning whether he can maintain it for 16 games and even play in 16 games. I'll take the under on both.

Won't touch at current ranking/ADP.
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Is there anything in particular that has you questioning his ability to maintain a full workload more than any other RBs?
Click to expand...
He lacks ability. Superior talents like Jamaal Charles can get dinged up and still produce.

CJ Anderson is not a superior talent. If he was, he would have been starting much sooner last year.
Click to expand...
Not all players start right away, Arian Foster for example only played 6 games his rookie year. Jamall Charles didn't play much his rookie year. There are countless examples of this. Your statement is pretty silly.
Click to expand...
A) I didn't say "all players"

B) Why are we comparing Arian Foster as a rookie to CJ Anderson as a Sophomore?

C) I stand by my comment that CJ Anderson is not a superior talent and that adds risk to his profile and limits his ceiling...certainly not first round worthy.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Personally, I have a hard time projecting any QB to have a floor of 40 passing TDs. A QB has only thrown for 40 TDs in a season 11 times. I would tend to suggest projecting a max of 35 passing TD (which has happened 29 times). Once you do that, in a lot of leagues the value for top QBs may no longer fall in the first round. IMO, expecting QBs to have career years every year is asking for trouble.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

 
Who is projecting QBs to have a career year every year?

By the way, 40 TDs for Rodgers would not be a career year.

 
This year, guys in the career year discussion include Luck, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Eli, Palmer, Tannehill and Rodgers seems to be given 40+ TDs by a lot of people (not a career year but it would be his second most passing TDs in a season).

 
pantherclub said:
Lynch is going to hit the wall this year in a big way.
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Lynch is 29. Gore is 32. Yet people are in love with Gore this year (despite more knee surgeries and 500+ more career touches). Neither guy has missed a game in three years. Wouldn't the older guy be more apt to break down than the younger one?

 
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