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Speculative Add: Virgil Green (1 Viewer)

georg013

georg013

Footballguy
The Denver Post expects the Broncos to try to re-sign free agent TE Virgil Green.

If the Broncos accomplish this goal and can't find money for Julius Thomas -- a distinct possibility if they franchise tag Demaryius Thomas -- Green could emerge as a 2015 fantasy sleeper. 26-year-old Green is a freak athletically, and a good enough blocker to function as a three-down tight end. Tight ends play a major role in new Denver coach Gary Kubiak's offense.
 
He's a great speculative add if your rosters are large enough. Green lacks receiving skills, but the opportunity could be there from a sheer targets perspective. I guess it all depends on who you would need to drop, but I don't think Green is a bad speculative add.

 
JohnnyU said:
Doesn't have the receiving skills
Click to expand...
I didn't follow him in college but I see people saying this a lot. And then I see this... From his NFL draft profile... So which is it?OVERVIEW

Green's an undersized, athletic, pass-catching tight end / H-back with big-play potential who doesn't bring much to the table as a blocker. Has good burst off the line and doesn't idle down in and out of his breaks but is susceptible to press coverage and doesn't exhibit great awareness against zone coverage. Possesses outstanding ball skills. Did not make a load of explosive plays in college but has a high ceiling here due to his speed and hands. Shows good effort as a blocker and could improve technique but lacks natural size and strength to excel in this area. Green could sneak into Day 2.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS Green has great speed for a tight end. Explodes off the line and out of his breaks to gain separation. Has excellent hands. Plucks and snatches away from his frame and secures the football without losing speed. Can get up the seam and make the over-the-shoulder grab. Flashes potential as a second-level blocker. Outstanding intangibles.

WEAKNESSES Does not have adequate NFL tight end size and lacks growth potential. Struggles as a blocker. Lacks power at the point of attack and technique needs refinement. Must improve ability to locate soft spots in zone coverage. Still developing as a route runner. Can be neutralized at the line by press coverage.

 
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Boone22 said:
JohnnyU said:
Doesn't have the receiving skills
Click to expand...
I didn't follow him in college but I see people saying this a lot. And then I see this... From his NFL draft profile... So which is it?OVERVIEW

Green's an undersized, athletic, pass-catching tight end / H-back with big-play potential who doesn't bring much to the table as a blocker. Has good burst off the line and doesn't idle down in and out of his breaks but is susceptible to press coverage and doesn't exhibit great awareness against zone coverage. Possesses outstanding ball skills. Did not make a load of explosive plays in college but has a high ceiling here due to his speed and hands. Shows good effort as a blocker and could improve technique but lacks natural size and strength to excel in this area. Green could sneak into Day 2.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS Green has great speed for a tight end. Explodes off the line and out of his breaks to gain separation. Has excellent hands. Plucks and snatches away from his frame and secures the football without losing speed. Can get up the seam and make the over-the-shoulder grab. Flashes potential as a second-level blocker. Outstanding intangibles.

WEAKNESSES Does not have adequate NFL tight end size and lacks growth potential. Struggles as a blocker. Lacks power at the point of attack and technique needs refinement. Must improve ability to locate soft spots in zone coverage. Still developing as a route runner. Can be neutralized at the line by press coverage.
Click to expand...
We haven't seen the receiving skills translate to the NFL. When Thomas was out he was used mainly as a blocker. They didn't feel comfortable with him running the same routes that Thomas ran when healthy. I'm not seeing any confidence from the Broncos using Green like Thomas. I guess that could change in the future however.

 
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JohnnyU said:
Boone22 said:
JohnnyU said:
Doesn't have the receiving skills
Click to expand...
I didn't follow him in college but I see people saying this a lot. And then I see this... From his NFL draft profile... So which is it?OVERVIEW

Green's an undersized, athletic, pass-catching tight end / H-back with big-play potential who doesn't bring much to the table as a blocker. Has good burst off the line and doesn't idle down in and out of his breaks but is susceptible to press coverage and doesn't exhibit great awareness against zone coverage. Possesses outstanding ball skills. Did not make a load of explosive plays in college but has a high ceiling here due to his speed and hands. Shows good effort as a blocker and could improve technique but lacks natural size and strength to excel in this area. Green could sneak into Day 2.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS Green has great speed for a tight end. Explodes off the line and out of his breaks to gain separation. Has excellent hands. Plucks and snatches away from his frame and secures the football without losing speed. Can get up the seam and make the over-the-shoulder grab. Flashes potential as a second-level blocker. Outstanding intangibles.

WEAKNESSES Does not have adequate NFL tight end size and lacks growth potential. Struggles as a blocker. Lacks power at the point of attack and technique needs refinement. Must improve ability to locate soft spots in zone coverage. Still developing as a route runner. Can be neutralized at the line by press coverage.
Click to expand...
We haven't seen the receiving skills translate to the NFL. When Thomas was out he was used mainly as a blocker. They didn't feel comfortable with him running the same routes that Thomas ran when healthy. I'm not seeing any confidence from the Broncos using Green like Thomas. I guess that could change in the future however.
Click to expand...
You're probably right. I guess it just confuses me a bit when you see the same comments from multiple sources about his college skills and then he hits the NFL and now he can't catch. I tend to wonder if they just didn't give him a chance because they had Thomas.

http://www.sbnation.com/2011/4/19/2113330/virgil-green-nfl-draft-scouting-report

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/n-f-l-draft-virgil-green-top-ranked-tight-end/?_r=0

 
J Tamme is in Atlanta with T Moeaki, good luck guessing who

their TE1 is. V Green is going to have to get by O Daniels to be

FF relevent.

 
Will he be playing more Tight End this season, or Left Left Tackle to help Sambrailo® keep Manning from getting killed?

 
J Casey is the FB/TE tweener. MFL has him listed as TE as they really

don't have a FB spot. At 6'3" 240 lbs I see him in the backfield and

not on the line. That's what Greene is for. FBG's has him at FB.

 
Papa John said:
Bri said:
nightmare said:
J Tamme is in Atlanta with T Moeaki, good luck guessing who

their TE1 is. V Green is going to have to get by O Daniels to be

FF relevent.
Click to expand...
Don't they have two former Kubiak TEs now in Denver? Daniels and another?
Click to expand...
Yeah, James Casey too.
Click to expand...
That's the name I couldn't recall. Thanks. Former QB, useful football intelligence.

He's never really done much. Once upon a time, I think he was supposed to be Owen's replacement. He seems to just get in and lessen other people's stats.

 
nightmare said:
J Casey is the FB/TE tweener. MFL has him listed as TE as they really

don't have a FB spot. At 6'3" 240 lbs I see him in the backfield and

not on the line. That's what Greene is for. FBG's has him at FB.
Click to expand...
That stinks. I remember fondly a FB league and a few discussions here and RSFF each year about which were the best. Very challenging position to predict week to week, maybe the hardest.

I think he gets in the way of your Greene add here. I remember the Texans having a couple former Jets TEs Dreesen and ?? and this guy's usefulness always vultured enough stats and time from them to negatively effect their production.

 
I'M WRONG. MFL does have a FB spot. It doesn't show up in your league

if you don't utilize the spot.

2016 Broncos could be a whole new animal formation wise. More of the

running game and C Latimer could make the TE a dud.

 
Cecil Lammey thought it would be Daniels 60% and Green 40% if I remember correctly, Daniels has history with the OC so it may take an injury to break through.

MFL does have a FB if they use Rotoworlds depth charts but you need to utilize it.

 
nightmare said:
I'M WRONG. MFL does have a FB spot. It doesn't show up in your league

if you don't utilize the spot.

2016 Broncos could be a whole new animal formation wise. More of the

running game and C Latimer could make the TE a dud.
Click to expand...
Kubiak + Peyton = :yes: for TE

 
ourmanflint said:
nightmare said:
I'M WRONG. MFL does have a FB spot. It doesn't show up in your league

if you don't utilize the spot.

2016 Broncos could be a whole new animal formation wise. More of the

running game and C Latimer could make the TE a dud.
Click to expand...
Kubiak + Peyton = :yes: for TE
Click to expand...
I think that's what we all think/want but does Kubiak and Peyton want to

throw as much? Their plan is 19 games(20 if they don't clinch).

I like O Daniels but as this point the RB's could be used more as rec's.

A few more rush attempts combined with Latimer, Hillman and Ball with

increased rec's. Distribute the workload with all the weapons and everyone

is fresh(er) for playoffs.

We have to remember we are not talking about replacing a 70 catch guy.

2014 J Thomas went 43/489 and 12. 2013 was 65/788 and 12. It's that

insane TD/catch ratio that made Thomas so good. Sanders came in and

caught 101. 2015 this offense isn't going to miss that 43/489. TD's are

not so easy to predict.

Greene might be used in 2 TE sets but he doesn't crack the top 12 in scoring.

After the top 5/6 you have a BUNCH of guys you would consider before Greene.

I would not consider him for a 25 man roster(12 team) unless we get some crazy

camp reports out of Denver.

 
nightmare said:
ourmanflint said:
nightmare said:
I'M WRONG. MFL does have a FB spot. It doesn't show up in your league

if you don't utilize the spot.

2016 Broncos could be a whole new animal formation wise. More of the

running game and C Latimer could make the TE a dud.
Click to expand...
Kubiak + Peyton = :yes: for TE
Click to expand...
We have to remember we are not talking about replacing a 70 catch guy.

2014 J Thomas went 43/489 and 12 [Missing 6 games]. 2013 was 65/788 and 12 [Missing 2 games].
Click to expand...
The only reason he wasn't a 70 catch receiver was because he was hurt. He is most DEFINITELY a 70+ catch TE when he's on the field.

 
ourmanflint said:
nightmare said:
I'M WRONG. MFL does have a FB spot. It doesn't show up in your league

if you don't utilize the spot.

2016 Broncos could be a whole new animal formation wise. More of the

running game and C Latimer could make the TE a dud.
Click to expand...
Kubiak + Peyton = :yes: for TE
Click to expand...
Why?

Owen's best season was 70 catches for 862 yards. His average, under Kubiak was probably 40-45 for 500-550 yards.

Dallas Clark had two outstanding years with Peyton but he played a good number of plays in the slot WR those years. Otherwise his numbers were....Julius Thomas like 35-45 catches for 4-500 yards. Of all the seasons with Peyton, only two did he have more than 6 TDs.

How does all this project to anything other than 40ish for 500?

Kubiak had Andre Johnson and Peyton had Marvin, Wayne, Thomas all with a clear indication it's sweet to be the top WR.

Why the love for the TE?

 
You can't compare Schaub's numbers to Manning's. In 2012 Schaub was QB 22 in FF

with 4008/22. O Daniels was TE8 with 716/6. Before that it was injuries to either Schaub

or Daniels so it would be foolish to drag out the numbers.

Daniels is 32 and was often injured. That could give you pause so 45-500/4 could be

what he does. I don't think it's Greene or Casey that end up being fantasy relevent.

ourmanflint, myself and others? are intrigued with Kubiak/Manning and the possibilities.

Rookie TE J Heaurman was building hype to be the guy(2016) but got hurt. Jones is a

blocker and M Jensen is ? Anybody got the info on him?

 
nightmare said:
You can't compare Schaub's numbers to Manning's. In 2012 Schaub was QB 22 in FF

with 4008/22. O Daniels was TE8 with 716/6. Before that it was injuries to either Schaub

or Daniels so it would be foolish to drag out the numbers.

Daniels is 32 and was often injured. That could give you pause so 45-500/4 could be

what he does. I don't think it's Greene or Casey that end up being fantasy relevent.

ourmanflint, myself and others? are intrigued with Kubiak/Manning and the possibilities.

Rookie TE J Heaurman was building hype to be the guy(2016) but got hurt. Jones is a

blocker and M Jensen is ? Anybody got the info on him?
Click to expand...
I mentioned both Manning and Kubiak.

I played FF during Clark's years and quite frankly got burned by this thinking. He may have shown awesome TE talent when he lined up as a slot WR, but when he primarily played TE his production really wasn't good.

It's ok to disagree, guess we'll see how it plays out

 
Bri said:
ourmanflint said:
nightmare said:
I'M WRONG. MFL does have a FB spot. It doesn't show up in your league

if you don't utilize the spot.

2016 Broncos could be a whole new animal formation wise. More of the

running game and C Latimer could make the TE a dud.
Click to expand...
Kubiak + Peyton = :yes: for TE
Click to expand...
Why?

Owen's best season was 70 catches for 862 yards. His average, under Kubiak was probably 40-45 for 500-550 yards.

Dallas Clark had two outstanding years with Peyton but he played a good number of plays in the slot WR those years. Otherwise his numbers were....Julius Thomas like 35-45 catches for 4-500 yards. Of all the seasons with Peyton, only two did he have more than 6 TDs.

How does all this project to anything other than 40ish for 500?

Kubiak had Andre Johnson and Peyton had Marvin, Wayne, Thomas all with a clear indication it's sweet to be the top WR.

Why the love for the TE?
Click to expand...
My PPR stats only go back to 2000 but from 2000-2011, Manning had a fantasy TE1 7 times. Kent Dilger (once I think), Marcus Pollard, Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme (once). In 2004 Pollard and Clark platooned for 54/732/11 keeping each other from attaining TE1 status. Then there was Julius Thomas.

Owen Daniels has played his entire career under Kubiak. He was a TE1 4 times in 9 years. I would think injuries have kept him from more TE1 finishes.

There's an article here that talks about TEs under Kubiak.

Up to this point, I haven't examined the effect of play calling on tight ends, as it is usually a talent-dependent position, but Gary Kubiak has shown a clear affinity for the position. Kubiak's primary tight end has averaged 9.8 PPR points per game, a total that would have ranked 12th at the position in 2014. As a team, Kubiak's play calling has produced an average of seven touchdowns to the position each year, which would have been top 10 among all teams last year, and his teams have an average rank of 10th in overall tight end fantasy production.
Click to expand...
 
Rotoworld:

Broncos TE Virgil Green attended Peyton Manning's Duke workouts this offseason.

Players that are merely ticketed to block don't go catch passes from Manning at his annual camp. Green, a versatile and uniquely athletic specimen, is trying to be part of the committee that replaces Julius Thomas' production in a TE-friendly Gary Kubiak scheme. His progress in camp will be worth watching as he battles Owen Daniels and H-back James Casey for looks from Peyton.

Source: denverbroncos.com
Jul 7 - 10:04 AM
Click to expand...
 
People are killing me(and others) in one of the O Daniels thread for saying he could be TE 5 or 6.

Green could do a 2014 D Fells act-4 TD's in the first 6 games then fall of the FF planet. We're

really not going to KNOW until games 3 or 4.

 
nightmare said:
People are killing me(and others) in one of the O Daniels thread for saying he could be TE 5 or 6.

Green could do a 2014 D Fells act-4 TD's in the first 6 games then fall of the FF planet. We're

really not going to KNOW until games 3 or 4.
Click to expand...
True, but then if you were thinking of doing a speculative add, by then it would be too late I guess.

 
with the Broncos OL, I think it's far more likely Green is used more inline as a blocker and Daniels is the FFL TE to have. Daniels already has a good rapport with Manning and there is little to no talk of Green working as a receiver in camp. The OL is going to have a FB and/or TE helping seal and chip since the left side of the OL is comprised of rookie(s) and unseasoned young guys all learning on the fly.

I like Green as a player, but it's not an optimal situation at this point imo.

 
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Rotoworld:

Virgil Green caught five passes for 45 yards and a touchdown in the Broncos' preseason opener against Seattle.

The good news about Green's performance is that he excelled as a pass catcher when Green seems to have been typecast as a block-first tight end. The bad news is Green played extensively with the second-team offense, while most of Denver's starters rested. We believe Green is pretty clearly behind Owen Daniels in the target pecking order, but also would not rule out Green from playing a surprisingly big pass-catching role.

Aug 15 - 8:45 AM
Click to expand...
 
So that lasted long, with the acquisition of Vernon Davis. I still have hope for him in dynasty leagues.

 
Broncos.com's Andrew Mason believes Virgil Green could "shatter" his career highs in every receiving category.
Considering Green has never had more than 12 catches in a season, it would not take much for him to "shatter" his career marks, but Mason's implication is Green will get every opportunity to be Denver's No. 1 tight end. While that might be true, Green has been given chances to earn a bigger role in the passing game before in his career, and he has yet to take advantage. Green will always have a place because of his blocking ability, but Jeff Heuerman is a better bet to lead the Broncos' tight ends in targets.

 
Source: denverbroncos.com
Click to expand...

 
Run It Up said:
My money is on Jeff Heuerman, but I'm prepared to be wrong.

Both were easily acquirable earlier.
Click to expand...
Wasn't Heuerman out all last year with injuries? If so then wouldn't he be susceptible to the law of rookie TEs? People can say that Green has no receiving skills but he was pretty productive in college with Kaep (I think) of all people throwing to him. He's going to get PT because he's able to block about as well as anyone in the league at the position. He's got the hands and might have the sense to learn the routes and/or playbook better. I think Heuerman might be long term more valuable but this year y money would be on Green.

 
saintfool said:
Wasn't Heuerman out all last year with injuries? If so then wouldn't he be susceptible to the law of rookie TEs? 
Click to expand...
Yes Heuerman was out with injuries, but the law of rookie TEs is pretty garbage. We'll see whether he sniffs anything that resembles value, to date Virgil has very little and I don't see him getting miraculously better as a one dimensional player. 

Heuerman was one of the best TEs of his class, Williams and Walford stole a lot of the name value. Hes an actual complete TE, something neither of them are, imo.

 
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Run It Up said:
Yes Heuerman was out with injuries, but the law of rookie TEs is pretty garbage. We'll see whether he sniffs anything that resembles value, to date Virgil has very little and I don't see him getting miraculously better as a one dimensional player. 

Heuerman was one of the best TEs of his class, Williams and Walford stole a lot of the name value. Hes an actual complete TE, something neither of them are, imo.
Click to expand...
The list of successful rookie TEs is rather short. Its actually not garbage at all. 

 
Just saying, its a lot more complex than the incredibly close minded meme that it is. Those that will, those that could be, those that wont, and those that probably wont. You can get a pretty good idea if a TE will ever be anything while hes floundering in the dregs of some team. Evaluating TEs isn't a game of chance. 

Green has never shown anything of merit and I've owned him since the Broncos took him in the 7th. I've also owned Heuerman since they took him in the 3rd. 

 
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Run It Up said:
New age, I don't accept the list of successful rookie TEs sample.
Click to expand...
It's not a meme. It's fact. Rookie TEs are not productive. I'm making no comment on Virgil Green or Jeff Heurman here mind you. I'm just pointing out that it is true that TEs take time to adjust to the NFL.

Here's a list of the 25 best rookie fantasy TEs in NFL (AFL) history. A look at Ozzie Newsome's numbers at 25 should say a lot about what we should expect from NFL rookies.  


 


Mike Ditka


1961


56


1076


12


235.6


 


Keith Jackson


1988


81


869


6


203.9


 


Charles Young


1973


55


854


6


176.4


 


Jeremy Shockey


2002


74


894


2


175.4


 


Junior Miller


1980


46


584


9


158.4


 


Cam Cleeland


1998


54


684


6


158.4


 


Rob Gronkowski


2010


42


546


10


156.6


 


John Carlson


2008


55


627


5


147.7


 


Tim Wright


2013


54


574


5


141.4


 


Raymond Chester


1970


42


556


7


139.6


 


Aaron Hernandez


2010


45


563


6


137.3


 


Robert Awalt


1987


42


526


6


130.6


 


Fred Arbanas


1962


29


649


6


129.9


 


Ken Dilger


1995


42


635


4


129.5


 


Bob Tucker


1970


40


571


5


127.1


 


Jermaine Gresham


2010


52


471


4


123.1


 


Russ Francis


1975


35


636


4


122.6


 


Pete Lammons


1966


41


565


4


121.5


 


Heath Miller


2005


39


459


6


120.9


 


Tony Moeaki


2010


47


556


3


120.6


 


Dustin Keller


2008


48


535


3


119.5


 


Dwayne Allen


2012


45


521


3


115.1


 


Jordan Reed


2013


45


499


3


112.9


 


Randy McMichael


2002


39


485


4


111.5


 


Ozzie Newsome


1978


38


589


2


108.9

 
In the past 5 years, Gronk, Hernandez, Kelce, Eifert and Reed.

Kelce, Eifert and Reed missing most of their first and second seasons with injury, Gronk and Hernandez hit the ground running. Outside of those fresh TEs can you name any young TEs who have looked like they are gonna ever be worth anything? Graham is kind of a tweener, he blew up his second year but the dude hasn't played a full season ever to my knowledge, hes a one dimensional TE who is giving everyone the blueprint as to how to beat such a player - you just beat the #### out of him because the refs aren't going to flag you.

I haven't seen anything from Ebron, ASJ or Ertz to make me think they will ever be good, with that sample its pretty clear that TEs with very few snaps can show good production early. I don't think anything before 2010 really can be taken with as much as some salt, the NFL is different, the TE position is different.

 
Run It Up said:
In the past 5 years, Gronk, Hernandez, Kelce, Eifert and Reed.

Kelce, Eifert and Reed missing most of their first and second seasons with injury, Gronk and Hernandez hit the ground running. Outside of those fresh TEs can you name any young TEs who have looked like they are gonna ever be worth anything? Graham is kind of a tweener, he blew up his second year but the dude hasn't played a full season ever to my knowledge, hes a one dimensional TE who is giving everyone the blueprint as to how to beat such a player - you just beat the #### out of him because the refs aren't going to flag you.

I haven't seen anything from Ebron, ASJ or Ertz to make me think they will ever be good, with that sample its pretty clear that TEs with very few snaps can show good production early. I don't think anything before 2010 really can be taken with as much as some salt, the NFL is different, the TE position is different.
Click to expand...
Eifert missed one game as a rookie and put up 39-445-2.

Kelce missed his entire rookie season - so not sure how we qualify him as a successful rookie -but he did have a very solid sophomore season.

So every single rookie TE since 2010 that struggled, just sucks and will always suck - and the 2 guys (3 if you count Reed who missed most of his rookie season) that have done well as rookies disprove the fact that rookie TEs struggle? That's your position? 

 
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